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THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 7

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 20 Aug 2017, 13:21:53

Outcast_Searcher wrote:And that's the IBM's, HP's, etc. of the world and talking about I/T people who literally, bang away all day on keyboards to do their work.


Yeah, and how much of their work gets done by offshoring to India anyway? It's stupid, hypocritical, and will not last.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 20 Aug 2017, 23:36:49

asg70 wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:And that's the IBM's, HP's, etc. of the world and talking about I/T people who literally, bang away all day on keyboards to do their work.


Yeah, and how much of their work gets done by offshoring to India anyway? It's stupid, hypocritical, and will not last.

As an IBMer who's last 13 years was spoiled by a culture of massive off-shoring, and them threatening the remaining competent people with statements like "I can hire 7 Indians with doctorates for your salary", you won't get any argument from me. Oh, and mean time the competent management who actually knew what we did and rewarded people for results instead of smiling and chanting the party line -- 99% of those people went away.

And then IBM wondered why it's business wasn't thriving on the new cost cutting model. (They ignored any input from the folks who actually produced the software or made the system software work, of course).

But if you're the next manager in line -- throw something at the wall and hope it sticks. So having all hands where management can "see them" is one of the attempts to "do something" to make things work.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby dolanbaker » Mon 21 Aug 2017, 02:15:11

Management insecurity is the biggest killer of telecommuting, no doubt about that.
Many managers need the feeling of power that they get when walking to your desk and giving you your instructions that they can't get via a video link.

It's also true that some staff get nervous as well when they think that if they can do this job from home, then someone in a cheaper land could do it as well.
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby baha » Mon 21 Aug 2017, 06:37:09

So true...

These companies operate on the old paradigm. They haven't figured out brains is the commodity not money. My sister just retired early from Lockheed Martin as one of those engineers who was competent. She is so happy to get away :)

My brother sold his company to HP, worked for them for a year, and then left to start a new one. He said the folks in control were idiots...they bought his company to squash it...they can't have better, more efficient companies existing. He refused to sign a non-compete agreement so he is back to squashing them :) Sound familiar?

His wife just quit IBM after 20 years. She said working from home got the thumbs down and the company is on the wrong track.

Old companies with old minds chasing old problems.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby baha » Mon 21 Aug 2017, 09:58:58

My brother's wife has an IRA not a pension...There is no loyalty there. They created this problem themselves. When she got tired of it she just gave them some pointed advice and left.

My sister was played like a puppet for 3 years waiting for a better pension. At least it's over...
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 21 Aug 2017, 16:43:52

dolanbaker wrote:It's also true that some staff get nervous as well when they think that if they can do this job from home, then someone in a cheaper land could do it as well.

I can see that, but it doesn't change the reality. Many US jobs, including those working with complex information, can be replaced by people in another land -- whether that work is done at a desk in an office, or at home (desk or not).

I was in IBM 390 system series programming for MVS products. Nontrivial complexity, at least in my 17 years of experience with that. Yet, the last 13 years of that time, I was increasingly haunted/harrassed over a continuing barrage of that work being outsourced. (And the remaining competent folks left were expected to repeatedly pick up the pieces when the cheap outsourced labor royally screws things up).

Now, I had thought I was "smart" and had moved to the system programming from application programming, in the interest of job preservation. After all, much of mainframe application programming in about 1990 was basically: Read a record. Manipulate it and count it. Write the resulting record. Generate a report based on that. (Yes, that's greatly simplified, but that's the heart of the idea in business). I saw the writing on the wall that almost of ALL those jobs would go away in the coming decade, so I got out of the way of that bullet.

However, I didn't realize how desperate/aggressive IBM would be to outsource even complex jobs. And I didn't realize the way networking would make doing that so feasible, even for system programming, within a decade. So moving my career skill base delayed things but didn't even come close to solving the problem.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 21 Aug 2017, 16:48:19

dolanbaker wrote:It's also true that some staff get nervous as well when they think that if they can do this job from home, then someone in a cheaper land could do it as well.

I can see that, but it doesn't change the reality. Many US jobs, including those working with complex information, can be replaced by people in another land -- whether that work is done at a desk in an office, or at home (desk or not).

I was in IBM 390 system series programming for MVS products. Nontrivial complexity, at least in my 17 years of experience with that. Yet, the last 13 years of that time, I was increasingly haunted/harrassed over a continuing barrage of that work being outsourced. (And the remaining competent folks left were expected to repeatedly pick up the pieces when the cheap outsourced labor royally screws things up).

Now, I had thought I was "smart" and had moved to the system programming from application programming, in the interest of job preservation. After all, much of mainframe application programming in about 1990 was basically: Read a record. Manipulate it and count it. Write the resulting record. Generate a report based on that. (Yes, that's greatly simplified, but that's the heart of the idea in business). I saw the writing on the wall that almost of ALL those jobs would go away in the coming decade, so I got out of the way of that bullet.

However, I didn't realize how desperate/aggressive IBM would be to outsource even complex jobs. And I didn't realize the way networking would make doing that so feasible, even for system programming, within a decade. So moving my career skill base delayed things but didn't even come close to solving the problem.

...

I can't even imagine how nasty it must be for many folks now, a decade from when I quit in disgust at the way we were treated.

This kind of thing is why I am convinced we will end up with some form of a guaranteed income in the first world. With that funded (as least to a large extent) by something like a "robot tax" or an "automation tax". If that doesn't happen, I just don't see how the system can work. You can't have 50% or 80% of people reduced to "street people" and have a stable society.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby baha » Thu 24 Aug 2017, 06:29:45

The world is changing faster than you think...
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/23/heres-w ... ntary.html

These are the early days and the MSM already sees the writing on the wall. The key words are - cleaner, cheaper, safer. Anyone who has half a brain knows EVs are cleaner, more efficient, and more reliable than ICE vehicles. The technology is so superior the transition is going to make your head spin.

But the trends are what to watch. As EVs become more available and cheaper the price pressure on the auto and oil companies will increase. If the price of gas and oil goes up at all they lose the ability to compete. We all know the oil industry is basically operating at a loss right now. Just as the ETP model says...they are stuck between a rock and a hard place.

While the alternative industries are getting more efficient and lowering the price every day. We in the US are right on the line. One more step in either direction and the trickle will become a flood. Do you want your money tied up in a threatened industry or one that is growing like a weed?
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 24 Aug 2017, 10:23:20

baha wrote:While the alternative industries are getting more efficient and lowering the price every day. We in the US are right on the line. One more step in either direction and the trickle will become a flood. Do you want your money tied up in a threatened industry or one that is growing like a weed?

If the entire world were the first world, then there would be no question that EV's win, and it's likely a downslope for oil starting within a decade.

However, the world is NOT just the first world, and the population growth component is primarily from the third world -- where reliable electrification (especially at high power) is NOT a consistent thing -- not even close.

Which is why outfits like the IEA see peak FF demand in the 2040ish timeframe.

They might be wrong, but with 3+ billion third worlders reproducing rapidly and third world infrastructure/wealth issues, it's not a slam dunk in the short run for EV's in the short run -- not by a long shot.

Now, in 3 to 5 decades then, yes, I feel certain you are right about the winner.

In 3 to 5 decades, I'm very likely dead, so there's that.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 24 Aug 2017, 14:15:12

Well Outcast you may be unto something. Let's hope Oil and the Climate cooperate.

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gener ... emand.html
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 24 Aug 2017, 14:47:55

baha wrote:The world is changing faster than you think...
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/23/heres-w ... ntary.html

These are the early days and the MSM already sees the writing on the wall. The key words are - cleaner, cheaper, safer. Anyone who has half a brain knows EVs are cleaner, more efficient, and more reliable than ICE vehicles. The technology is so superior the transition is going to make your head spin.


It is called a "disruptive technology".

Google up a Tony Seba (Stanford) disruptive technology presentation, and you'll see why they have no more chance of being right in the future than they were in the past.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby baha » Thu 24 Aug 2017, 19:37:03

I do think this is disruptive technology. The third world again has the opportunity to skip all our mistakes and go straight to the right answer. EV demand in China far exceeds the US. Same goes for alternative energy.

You may say it's a small dent but at what point does it become significant? Everyone is targeting 2020 for their new models and by then Tesla should have met the original demand. If Tesla is still selling as fast as they can make them I say the line is crossed. By 2025 your head will be spinning :)

Once there are large numbers on the streets and range anxiety has passed, people will just go with it.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 24 Aug 2017, 20:42:40

baha wrote:I do think this is disruptive technology. The third world again has the opportunity to skip all our mistakes and go straight to the right answer. EV demand in China far exceeds the US. Same goes for alternative energy.

You may say it's a small dent but at what point does it become significant? Everyone is targeting 2020 for their new models and by then Tesla should have met the original demand. If Tesla is still selling as fast as they can make them I say the line is crossed. By 2025 your head will be spinning :)

Once there are large numbers on the streets and range anxiety has passed, people will just go with it.

You and I can afford a new EV at $20 grand or even $40 grand, no big problem assuming it will last.

The Chinese are now quite rich by third world standards. We'll see, but I really don't think it's nearly as easy for places like India to just say "go for it" and wala it's done, with the kind of poverty and basic infrastructure issues they have. (I'm not talking about the rich folks. I'm talking about the folks that are thrilled they can barely afford a $2500 Nano).
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 25 Aug 2017, 10:31:42

baha wrote:We all know the oil industry is basically operating at a loss right now. Just as the ETP model says...


The difference is attribution. ETP attributes the loss to oil depletion when it is in fact a supply glut.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 11 Sep 2017, 15:29:40

Time to bump the thread.
https://electrek.co/2017/09/11/vw-massi ... batteries/

Yes, folks. VW is all-in and will probably be Tesla's biggest threat.
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 11 Sep 2017, 16:06:06

asg70 wrote:Time to bump the thread.
https://electrek.co/2017/09/11/vw-massi ... batteries/

Yes, folks. VW is all-in and will probably be Tesla's biggest threat.

I'm so conflicted about this. I'm glad to see more and more indication of a massive investment in EV batteries from various sources.

OTOH, I ***HATE*** VW for their dieselgate fraud.

I guess I'm rooting for them to help make EV's cheaper, but would only buy a car from them as a last resort.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 11 Sep 2017, 16:17:19

Tesla caught degrading performance of its own cars

tesla-hurricane-irma-battery-capacity-temp-boost

Apparently the cheaper Tesla's actually have the same batteries and range as the expensive ones, but Tesla uses software to degrade the performance of their own cheap cars by 20%.....

During Hurricane Irma Tesla "reset" the cheaper Teslas in Florida so they can go farther on a charge to help people evacuate.

I guess that is what Tesla sees as "customer service." If people are going to die because of the limited range of their cars, then Tesla will give them a "boost." Then Tesla turns off the boost and makes their cars have crappy range again.

Wow. That approach to selling cars seems strange to me....TESLA is a company that INTENTIONALLY DEGRADES the performance of its own cars. How isn't that cheating the customer? The customer buys a car and TESLA makes it run worse then it could run. That just seems like a crappy way to treat customers, IMHO.

Why not just sell the best possible car to everybody? Wouldn't that get them more satisfied customers?

Cheers!

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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 11 Sep 2017, 19:08:46

It's a software approach. Ever try "trial" software? Why does software have to unlock or expire?

Contact Liz Warren if you think this sort of thing should be illegal. Until then, let the customer decide and stop derailing the thread with tempests in a teapot.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 11 Sep 2017, 19:25:32

asg70 wrote:It's a software approach. Ever try "trial" software? Why does software have to unlock or expire?


Sure. You try out a free version of the software and then pay for the full-featured software.

Thats a heck of lot different then somebody paying $50,000-$80,000 for a car only to find out that TESLA has significantly degraded the performance of the car they just bought.

asg70 wrote: ...stop derailing the thread with tempests in a teapot.


Posts about the trending controversy going on right now concerning TESLA's policy of degrading the performance of its own cars are most definitely not off topic. People are angry about this---its all over the MSM and social media.

Your problem is that you are such a TESLA booster that you are all wee-wee'd up because TESLA is under fire for degrading the performance of its own cars. You want to censor news stories that criticize Tesla.

Well---in my humble opinion TESLA should be criticized for degrading the performance of their own cars. This is an outrageous thing for them to do to their customers.

Image
Time to evacuate Florida ---- except for you unfortunate people who own Tesla cars that were factory degraded so your range sucks

Cheers!
Last edited by Plantagenet on Mon 11 Sep 2017, 19:39:50, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 11 Sep 2017, 19:30:06

asg70 wrote:Posts about the trending controversy going on right now concerning


It's not a controversy because it's nothing new and was never secretive to begin with.

BTW, a lot in Tesla cars IS software. The autonomy features are a software unlock. You can charge whatever you want for whatever you feel like. Not everything is keyed on the cost of the underlying materials. It's up to the consumer whether they want to buy into it or not. Vote with your wallet.

Also, depending on your POV, the extra locked battery capacity is actually a benefit in the sense that the range won't degrade as much with that sort of buffer, unlike, let's say, a Leaf.
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