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THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 11:42:17

eclipse wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:
asg70 wrote:There is no range anxiety on a 200+ mile EV.


There is if the next town with a charging station is 300+ miles away :)

map showing where to find public charging stations in USA

Cheers!


And if every car is a robot car?


Robot cars are no more capable of driving 300+ miles in a 200+ mile EV then a human driver is.

Image
Gee Mr. Robot car...Are you sure you can go 300 miles even though your range is only 200 miles? I think maybe you should check your specs again!
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 12:17:59

Plantagenet wrote:
eclipse wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:
asg70 wrote:There is no range anxiety on a 200+ mile EV.


There is if the next town with a charging station is 300+ miles away :)

map showing where to find public charging stations in USA

Cheers!


And if every car is a robot car?


Robot cars are no more capable of driving 300+ miles in a 200+ mile EV then a human driver is.



1). I think he was referring to the earlier post that if you have all robot cars, when your robot car sees it is coming to the end of its range, it just calls another robot car to come pick you up. If it times things right, your delay and inconvenience is minimal. A 10% price reduction in your trip fee was proposed as compensation.

Of course, now you also have a stranded (depleted) robot car, so something else (a robot charging truck) has to drive out to the robot car and charge it enough to get to a charging station. SOMEBODY has to pay for that. So unless people are willing to take EXPENSIVE trips -- this sounds like a way for ride providers to lose a lot of money to me.

2). Over time, it appears that batteries will improve. Battery energy density is already improving, even for LI batteries. Example:

https://electrek.co/2016/11/02/tesla-pa ... elon-musk/

3). EV producers are already talking about 300 mile range EV's, with larger batteries. By the time robot cars are common (much less ubiquitous), 400 or even 500 mile batteries don't sound unreasonable. More charging stations will be built as EV's proliferate. At some point, surely there will be "enough" charging stations, as the technology improves. As long as customers are willing to pay enough to charge for them to make a "reasonable" profit, of course. Example:

https://techcrunch.com/2017/01/09/next- ... te-charge/
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 12:28:45

eclipse wrote: The reason being that these robot-taxis will probably work so hard and do so many miles a year that they only last a year or two, at most. That means we'll constantly be using the latest model robot-taxi, which is good, but that the world will also use more and more lithium because so many of those cars will only last a year.


I keep seeing this idea, and it keeps seeming wrong to me. Look, if you drive an EV 21 shifts, you still have to maintain it and charge it. In a city with traffic (the likely place to see full time demand for an EV for a long time yet), the average speed will be relatively low.

There are less than 8800 hours in a year. So let's very optimistically say a full time EV travels 8000 hours a year. (Given charging time, time waiting on real world customers to switch out, time for maintenance, etc).

So 8000 hours at 15 MPH average speed is 120,000 miles a year. Or 7000 hours at 20 MPH is 140,000 miles. (More down time for maint/charging/waiting and a higher average speed for all night driving is likely more realistic -- I think).

EV's will supposedly last a good 500,000 to 1,000,000 miles, since the engine's aren't being destroyed by ICE byproducts, and there is no need for a complex transmission. So even with high mileage estimates like this, you're talking something in the likely range of 4 to 8 years of EV life.

...

The math is simple, at least for city based robot cars. Do you think EV's will have a shorter usable lifetime range than the typical quality brand ICE today?
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 13:48:03

pstarr wrote:Image


Does anyone here remember the days when the Prius drivers were all holier than thou about saving the world and whatnot, and peak oilers were making fun of them because, OBVIOUSLY, peak oil meant no fuel and they wouldn't get far on their meager batteries, and the fuel they saved wouldn't matter anyway? And even better, how Gm killed the electric car, and peak oil would prevent that coming back into action?

And like Mr Reserve and Mr Rockman and Mr Abundance and Mr JD, turns out, they knew more about what was going to happen than peakers did! And now we have personal transport peak oil solutions that are as close as the local dealerships, in multiple brands, we can buy used ones quite inexpensively, and now they are all over the place?

Except...peak oilers probably won't drive them!! :lol:

To much of a reminder of how wrong they got it? Buying their own peak oil transport solution comes too close to admitting how little they understood back then, and how much egg is on their faces now? :wink:

pstarr wrote:Adam, why continue posting?


For the exact opposite reason you do pstarr. You represent obsolete and discredited ideas, recycling peaker theory long after its expiration date, continuously using out of date information, claiming things that aren't true, pretending "peak" is different than "maximum", and perpetrating the dogma and herdthink of peak oil that delivered your kind to the fiasco that is the copious abundance we find ourselves in nowadays.

I apply what has been learned from not just your ludicrous claims of what peak means and when it happened, but those that came before you, saying the same things that you mindlessly recycle.I apply the history of the industry and insight into its functioning, basic principles of economics, to better illuminate the way forward. I accept EVs for what they both are, and can be.

pstarr wrote:It must be sooo hard to be you :cry: I fear no one will ever appreciate your brilliance and honesty?


What must be hard for me? Dealing with retreads of bad ideas, trolls and acolytes of peak doom, hiding under rocks in dark places on the internet because they know their ideas can't stand the light of day? Not hard at all really, you, like Shorty, don't have what it takes to show up at one of those professional conferences and open your mouths or present, so dealing with your ilk isn't hard at all. You are invisible in the real world.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 16:24:23

Outcast_Searcher wrote: if you have all robot cars, when your robot car sees it is coming to the end of its range, it just calls another robot car to come pick you up.....

Of course, now you also have a stranded (depleted) robot car, so something else (a robot charging truck) has to drive out to the robot car and charge it enough to get to a charging station. SOMEBODY has to pay for that. So unless people are willing to take EXPENSIVE trips -- this sounds like a way for ride providers to lose a lot of money to me.


Explain to me again why this is better then just driving the 300 miles in your own car?

"Its a brave new world"
---President Obama, 4/25/16
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 17:33:05

Plantagenet wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote: if you have all robot cars, when your robot car sees it is coming to the end of its range, it just calls another robot car to come pick you up.....

Of course, now you also have a stranded (depleted) robot car, so something else (a robot charging truck) has to drive out to the robot car and charge it enough to get to a charging station. SOMEBODY has to pay for that. So unless people are willing to take EXPENSIVE trips -- this sounds like a way for ride providers to lose a lot of money to me.


Explain to me again why this is better then just driving the 300 miles in your own car?


It isn't. Which is why some folks will continue to buy the parallel series hybrids. EV by day, coast to coast road tripper by night, sort of like Superman, except with wheels! I think the ultimate family combination will be one of the parallel hybrids for long range work, and something like a Bolt or Leaf for just running around town the rest of the time.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 18:34:50

AdamB wrote: I think the ultimate family combination will be one of the parallel hybrids for long range work, and something like a Bolt or Leaf for just running around town the rest of the time.


You could be right, especially as the United States still isn't putting anywhere near enough money into mass transit, including trams and light rail for travel within cities and towns, and intercity high speed rail connections for longer travel.

Cheers!

"Its a brave new world"
---President Obama, 4/25/16
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All New Volvos Will Have All-Electric Motors By 2019!

Unread postby dolanbaker » Wed 05 Jul 2017, 02:53:05

https://www.dsf.my/2017/07/all-new-volv ... s-by-2019/
All New Volvos Will Have All-Electric Motors By 2019!

Volvo Cars, the premium car maker, has announced that every Volvo it launches from 2019 will have an electric motor, marking the historic end of cars that only have an internal combustion engine (ICE) and placing electrification at the core of its future business.

The announcement represents one of the most significant moves by any car maker to embrace electrification and highlights how over a century after the invention of the internal combustion engine electrification is paving the way for a new chapter in automotive history.


With hybrids becoming common, it's only a matter of time before some cities ban ICE vehicles from their centres.
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby eclipse » Wed 05 Jul 2017, 05:09:41

Why stop at cities?
The government could:-
1. Ban all ICE sales from a certain date
2. Guarantee a supply of oil through to 15 years after the deadline. (Could this be diminishing & slightly more expensive to encourage EV adoption?)

Norway will ban the sale of all fossil fuel-based cars in the next decade, continuing its trend towards becoming one of the most ecologically progressive countries on the planet, according to reports.


http://www.independent.co.uk/environmen ... 65616.html
Dr James Hansen recommends breeder reactors that convert nuclear 'waste' into 1000 years of clean energy for America, and can charge all our light vehicles and generate "Blue Crude" for heavy vehicles.
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Re: All New Volvos Will Have All-Electric Motors By 2019!

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 05 Jul 2017, 09:46:44

dolanbaker wrote:
https://www.dsf.my/2017/07/all-new-volv ... s-by-2019/
All New Volvos Will Have All-Electric Motors By 2019!


The headline is somewhat misleading as it's about mostly hybridizing the fleet and not completely abandoning ICE overnight but it's still a step in the right direction.

eclipse wrote:Why stop at cities?
The government could:-
1. Ban all ICE sales from a certain date
2. Guarantee a supply of oil through to 15 years after the deadline. (Could this be diminishing & slightly more expensive to encourage EV adoption?)

Norway will ban the sale of all fossil fuel-based cars in the next decade, continuing its trend towards becoming one of the most ecologically progressive countries on the planet, according to reports.


http://www.independent.co.uk/environmen ... 65616.html


Norway is cognitive-dissonance central because its welfare state is powered by its oil industry. The entire country could be green but as long as it sells oil on the open market it is producing emissions by proxy.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby dolanbaker » Wed 05 Jul 2017, 12:00:12

That headline is a bit confusing as well, I think it should have read "All New Volvo’s Will All Have Electric Motors By 2019!"
this would make more sense as they're not phasing out ICE engines but ICE only vehicles will no longer be available.

They talk about "mild hybrids", ( I had to google that) these vehicles cannot operate without the ICE engine running, which seems a bit lame to say the least. But at least it stores and reuses some of the energy wasted braking and allows the engine to shutdown to save fuel.
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 05 Jul 2017, 12:43:11

The mindset with hybrids is just different from EVs. Either you're propping up the efficiency of ICE like a crutch or you're eliminating them altogether. A huge amount of gas is wasted when idling. So start-stop hybrids, which sound lame, actually could have a large impact if, let's say, all cars had them.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 05 Jul 2017, 17:08:17

Plantagenet wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote: if you have all robot cars, when your robot car sees it is coming to the end of its range, it just calls another robot car to come pick you up.....

Explain to me again why this is better then just driving the 300 miles in your own car?

It's not better. It's different, and may be better, depending on how inefficient the ICE being used is. It's an idea I quoted from another poster as I workaround to the CURRENT EV range limitation.

That's why I showed reasons backed up by links that stated or implied that it will be uneccessary in many cases in 5 years (and a thing of the past in 10).
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby dolanbaker » Thu 06 Jul 2017, 14:42:21

Range anxiety can easily be averted by using a "powertail", that is a trailer that carries an ICE engine and generator. this would generate the required electrical energy to power the car on long journeys, but can be left at home for the short trips. Such an arrangement will give the EV extra range while retaining the pure EV mode for short journeys.

This gets around the need to have two vehicles or hiring a car for those long journeys.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 06 Jul 2017, 16:44:36

dolanbaker wrote:Range anxiety can easily be averted by using a "powertail", that is a trailer that carries an ICE engine and generator. this would generate the required electrical energy to power the car on long journeys, but can be left at home for the short trips. Such an arrangement will give the EV extra range while retaining the pure EV mode for short journeys.

This gets around the need to have two vehicles or hiring a car for those long journeys.

That's an interesting idea I hadn't thought of. Seems rather obvious.

Of course it seems far more efficient just to be able to rent longer range BEV's for vacation (you might not want a huge / very expensive battery for your daily driver -- at least not until the technology is far more mature). Or, of course, have a solid enough charging infrastructure -- especially along the interstates, that range anxiety is a thing of the past. Of course, that could take a long time to achieve, if BEV's ramp up in volume quickly starting with Tesla's model 3.

This is an example, IMO, of where government getting involved and providing meaningful financial incentives to get that build-out done quickly would pay nice dividends. But of course, neither side of the aisle has shown much inclination to actually do something more meaningful than timid CAFE standard increases.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 06 Jul 2017, 16:58:44

asg70 wrote:The mindset with hybrids is just different from EVs. Either you're propping up the efficiency of ICE like a crutch or you're eliminating them altogether. A huge amount of gas is wasted when idling. So start-stop hybrids, which sound lame, actually could have a large impact if, let's say, all cars had them.

Hybrids are getting really good, and rather ubiquitous among major brands now, so it's a practical and QUICK solution to get LOTS of them on the road. For example, the 2017 Accord Hybrid and 2018 Camry hybrid (popular mid-sized practical family cars) both come in trim levels providing about 50 MPG. 50 MPG! That's Prius range, and was stuff of legend only 5 or so years ago. Oh, and I notice that the Camry no longer takes up a chunk of the trunk with the hybrid battery with their new design, so that issue should now be gone in the future come the next hybrid design cycle for all competent makers.

I recently didn't buy a Toyota Camry 2017 hybrid because of the cost, real world reported mileage of more like 30 MPG, and the fact that the dealers gave you so few CHOICES if you want a hybrid. (Very limited on vehicles on the lots, which trims (NO, I don't want another $8 thousand dollars of stuff I don't want, thank you), and even simple things like alloy wheels.)

The 4-cylinder 2017 Camry is giving me about 20 MPG city, so a 40+ real world MPG would be wonderful.

If the dealers would actually stock a lot of them and act like they want to SELL them by stocking choice to compete with the ICE's, once the mileage really gets to be over 40 -- the economics should start to make sense, even with $50 oil. With oil at $80 and up, it's a slam dunk, unless I'm missing something.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 06 Jul 2017, 19:09:40

The range anxiety debate is getting really old. There are four things that are going to or are already driving the nail in the coffin:

1) Battery improvements/cost reductions = cheaper, longer-range EVs
2) Quick charge infrastructure (first, Tesla, next, VW)
3) Robotaxis making it cheaper to rent rather than own
4) Less of a need to travel as much to work (telecommuting)

Most of the whining about EVs is about purely discretionary travel (aka roadtripping). The majority of people do not rely on having to go 200+ miles round trip to sit in a cubicle and bang on a keyboard all day. The much-decried wasteful suburban commute ritual is still well within the range of 200 mile EVs, even in stop-and-go and winter conditions.

It's one of those cases where no matter how much range you throw at people they'll want more, and no matter how many charging stations, they'll want one in west-bumfuck montana, and they'll want them to charge up in 20 seconds. I mean, the fact that this sort of whining is even happening is a sign of how far away peak-oil doom really is. I mean, come on, first world problems.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby eclipse » Thu 06 Jul 2017, 19:33:04

Hi Asg70,
not only that, but Elon is going to announce something about long haul heavy trucking in September! How? Isn't it against the laws of physics, as all the doomers would have us believe? Or are there clever new business modes that can comply with the laws of physics but also with the laws of economics? Doomers just ignore the creative solutions us human beings can come up with. I'm wondering if Elon's long-haul heavy truckin' solution will be quick swap batteries in the trailers of the truck. Bring on September!
Dr James Hansen recommends breeder reactors that convert nuclear 'waste' into 1000 years of clean energy for America, and can charge all our light vehicles and generate "Blue Crude" for heavy vehicles.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 06 Jul 2017, 19:45:25

Not only that but back in the day in hangouts like this people were wishing they could have a vehicle even as mediocre as a Leaf to weather the storm of peak-oil. There's been sort of a mental flip-flop from "THEY (GM, Cobasys, etc...) are keeping us from our EVs" to "Bah, humbug. We're too spoiled. We only deserve donkey-carts, dammit!"

The only commonality is a sort of perverse desire for suffering and victimhood.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby eclipse » Fri 07 Jul 2017, 00:17:56

Who knows how advanced automated EV's will end up?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vrxyr1CjiSM
Dr James Hansen recommends breeder reactors that convert nuclear 'waste' into 1000 years of clean energy for America, and can charge all our light vehicles and generate "Blue Crude" for heavy vehicles.
https://eclipsenow.wordpress.com/recharge/
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