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THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 02 Jul 2017, 16:35:04

dolanbaker wrote:It is a challenge, when you consider that ICE vehicles are still cheaper to buy than electric ones and that their performance hasn't (and unlikely to) matched that of ICE vehicles, in particular, their range while cruising at motorway speeds.


The wife has a parallel series hybrid. She goes 6 months without gasoline, then I take it on a road trip. My last Nissan Altima got a solid 39 mpg on the highway, the wife's damn EV running on gasoline on the highway does 44 mpg. Range was greater on the Altima because the gas tank was larger.

The Altima was cheaper than the wife's car, so I'll give you that the equilibrium price point isn't there yet...but that does depend on what cost you place on CO2 emissions? 6 months of driving to work on gas, versus electricity, and the accompanying lack of CO2 emissions during that time? Might make up the cost difference if someone cared about that sort of thing. The wife does.

dolanbaker wrote:The fuel (electrical charge) will never be "free" when you start to factor in the costs of their production, regardless of source.


You might do that if you were the CEO of my wife's bank. But for her, the fuel is literally...free!! When something is so cheap that it can be given away as a free benefit to employees...well....that matters.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby eclipse » Sun 02 Jul 2017, 18:38:06

1. Electricity used to work out half the price of oil. Now oil has dropped so much in price, I don't know if that remains true, but the point is it is quite cheap on a per-km basis.
2. EV's might remain more expensive to buy than ICE cars, but buying is only a quarter of the cost. The other rough 'quarters' are maintenance, rego (& insurance & road fees & taxes), and fuel. The fuel is competitive and the maintenance is vastly cheaper.
3. The whole business model for cars is changing. In 5 to 10 years, the experts I'm reading predict we'll see individual car ownership start to plummet as more of us choose to save vast amounts of money just hiring robot-taxis on a as needs basis, even if that is every single day.
4. NREL says 86% of American light vehicles could charge on todays grid without a single new power plant or power line upgrade. Turn today's electricity generating plants up to full, and it can be done. Just weaning off oil would be a major geopolitical advantage for America, as they can stop buying oil from people that don't like America very much. Then as the world builds more nuclear-waste eating breeder reactors, we can clean up that electricity source.
Dr James Hansen recommends breeder reactors that convert nuclear 'waste' into 1000 years of clean energy for America, and can charge all our light vehicles and generate "Blue Crude" for heavy vehicles.
https://eclipsenow.wordpress.com/recharge/
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 02 Jul 2017, 22:16:42



This one is going to be the real long term, structural change that matters. Purchasing mobility, but not a car. I have been amazed at how my daughter thinks about transport, and what that means in terms of her Uber use, and people of her age. Energy experts like Amy Jaffe are all over this one, but you won't see peakers discussing it. Would probably screw up their ranking system in the local doomer fantasy league.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby eclipse » Sun 02 Jul 2017, 22:48:20

Agreed! The one thing that it could require, though, is the development of a very efficient battery recycling system that we don't quite have yet. The reason being that these robot-taxis will probably work so hard and do so many miles a year that they only last a year or two, at most. That means we'll constantly be using the latest model robot-taxi, which is good, but that the world will also use more and more lithium because so many of those cars will only last a year.
Dr James Hansen recommends breeder reactors that convert nuclear 'waste' into 1000 years of clean energy for America, and can charge all our light vehicles and generate "Blue Crude" for heavy vehicles.
https://eclipsenow.wordpress.com/recharge/
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 03 Jul 2017, 00:18:39

eclipse wrote:Agreed! The one thing that it could require, though, is the development of a very efficient battery recycling system that we don't quite have yet. The reason being that these robot-taxis will probably work so hard and do so many miles a year that they only last a year or two, at most. That means we'll constantly be using the latest model robot-taxi, which is good, but that the world will also use more and more lithium because so many of those cars will only last a year.

Actually, these will probably be an excellent test for whether BEV's can truly last, say 500,000 or even a million miles, since the engine isn't broken down by all the side effects of burning FF's to power the car.

So aside from the occaisonal replacement battery, tires, and likely some suspension parts like shocks, bushings, etc. over time, they might last 10 years or so at, say, 50,000 miles a year. Or 5 years at 100,000 miles a year.

There are under 8800 hours a year, so 100,000 miles sounds like a LOT to me, even if the thing is running 21 shifts a week. There's charging time, etc. Most busy ones will be in cities. Cities have traffic -- these things aren't going to have a high average speed, even if running nearly constantly.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 03 Jul 2017, 07:51:00

Yesterday I took a look at VW's new I.D. range of electric concepts which are scheduled to go into production. One is a next-gen Golf style vehicle. Another is a microbus. Both of these are very much taking Tesla's concepts and running with them. Even the bus uses a stick-on iPad like the Model 3 which I'm not thrilled about but the design reflects the move towards autonomy, as the steering wheel folds back into the dash when going autonomous. Regardless of which design details stick and which ones turn out to be boo boos, the overall future of the car is really starting to congeal now as a rolling iPad. The ICE will persist for some time but it will simply be the long-tail on a fading technology. How long that tail is will be determined mostly by the price of gas and to a lesser extent how much eco-guilt people are feeling as the biosphere continues to collapse.

Cars in general are starting to feel more and more like rolling iPads regardless of power-plant. The gadgetry is sort of taking over the whole driving experience. Even though the power to move a car is the main power-draw rather than the electronics, psychologically, when you're surrounded by so much gadgetry it might still feel silly to have a gas motor at the center of it all rather than electric.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby baha » Mon 03 Jul 2017, 09:31:07

I have said I am not a fan of autonomy. But I pay attention when I am driving. These days I see so many people looking down while driving it scares me...Maybe it's time to just let the cars drive so you can play with your phone.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 03 Jul 2017, 09:59:05

I take that last message as on point, clueless drivers scare me, too. During the recent BB championship, I saw drivers watching the Golden State Warriors live on video while driving.

Again, we need to be careful about binary thinking. Private vehicles are not necessary for most urban and suburban citizens, but they are necessary for the 90+% of rural citizens who live where there are ZERO mass transit systems. BEVs are more viable than ICE vehicles, I agree.

I plan to hang onto my ICE-powered Jeep Wrangler, and add to it a BEV with AWD, if anybody gets around to building an affordable one. I would LOVE to own a Tesla P85D, but it's just not an affordable option. Both the Chevy Bolt and the Tesla Model 3 disappointed me by postponing the AWD versions.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 03 Jul 2017, 10:29:08

Did Chevy ever say there would be an AWD Bolt?

What the Bolt needs is faster fast-charge capacity and a sensor package to enable full autonomy (just to future-proof it, like the 3).

Meanwhile, on Sunday Musk announced that the first production 3s will roll off the assembly line in only two weeks. They've already been making Model 3 batteries at the gigafactory so they've gotta go somewhere soon.

I also read an article recently talking about how China has decided to become the world leader in lithium ion battery production, similar to how it has been largely responsible for flooding the market with cheap solar panels. The capacity poised to come online, if the article is correct, would dwarf the Gigafactory, since everything China does is on a massive scale. If that were to happen then it could disrupt things at a whole new level.

If economy of scale reaches that level then having battery suppliers as middlemen may not incur that much overhead anymore and the major automakers can buy from these suppliers and still keep the price of long-range EVs at a Model 3 pricepoint (and not require taking a loss as GM does with the Bolt).

But you can see from these articles that the convergence point here is 2020-2025. By 2025 I would expect to see a healthy variety of Tesla-grade EVs on the market at the $35K base pricepoint. If these do well I would expect most of the automakers to stop doing token compliance cars and jump in.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 03 Jul 2017, 11:45:52

Chevy called the Bolt both an "SUV" and a "crossover" from time to time. I assumed that the terminology meant AWD, but maybe not.

I'm not sure I can wait until 2025 to buy my EV. Perhaps by then the used Tesla "S" with AWD will be more reasonably priced, they should get real cheap when the battery replacement approaches.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 03 Jul 2017, 12:55:13

--range anxiety,
--11 miles/hour L2 charging vs 500 miles/10 minutes ICE refueling.
--1,344,000 charging stations necessary to replace all existing gas pumps. (There are 168,000 retail locations in the U.S. that sell fuel to the public. The average number of pump stations is 4, each has 2 filling units)

We reached out to Chevy, and got the following response from Fred Ligouri of Chevrolet Communications.

Short answer:

    The current list price of a Bolt EV HV battery pack is $15,734.29 and the part number is 24285978.

And expensive batteries.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 03 Jul 2017, 13:18:32

There is no range anxiety on a 200+ mile EV. If someone has a 100+ mile commute they should have their head examined.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 03 Jul 2017, 13:45:46

asg70 wrote:There is no range anxiety on a 200+ mile EV. If someone has a 100+ mile commute they should have their head examined.

Half that in winter
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby eclipse » Mon 03 Jul 2017, 22:28:11

pstarr wrote:--range anxiety,
--11 miles/hour L2 charging vs 500 miles/10 minutes ICE refueling.


From my page on Robot-Ev's

https://eclipsenow.wordpress.com/robot-cars/

7. The end of the fuel ‘chicken and egg’ Catch-22.

You know the ‘chicken and egg’ problem — no company wants to build a hydrogen highway because there are no hydrogen customers, and no customers want to buy a hydrogen car because they is no hydrogen highway yet. The companies don’t want to lose a billion dollars building infrastructure that may not get used, and the customer doesn’t want to invest $25,000 in a car that may not have a fuelling infrastructure. The robot-taxi solves all this. The car company has guaranteed customers hiring their vehicles on an as-needs basis. The customers are making a spot-decision about hiring a car for the next 14 minutes, not buying one for the next 14 years! We will not care what the car runs on or how it was recharged.

Scenario: a busy afternoon. The new robot-taxi has a range of 300 km and a group calls it on their phone. The taxi turns up, the party climbs in, and off they go. They notice it’s a new model, but don’t really even care if it has a new charging port or runs on hydrogen, they’re too busy in a gaming contest on their phones. The new robot-taxi reaches its 150km range, and advises that it is now out of range and just pulling over so they can climb into the next cab, and they’ll be getting a 10% discount for the inconvenience. Last year’s model on the regular infrastructure takes them the rest of the way.

Robot-taxis mean everything is just so flexible, from houses not needing driveways or garages any longer to cars working together to get people where they want to go. Not only that, these cars are going to be working or recharging 24/7. They’ll burn out in a year or two, and so society will have a constant turnover of vehicles. In other words, we’ll always be hiring the latest thing! But if a company decides to change their charging plug, they can do it bit by bit maintaining coverage of the entire area as the new cars gradually replace the old. You won’t care. If anything goes wrong, another taxi will be along to serve you. Indeed, one city might have a few different companies running any number of different charging systems and it could still work. We’re just hiring that car for that trip. Chances are, some combination of robot-taxi and train will take you were you’re going.
Dr James Hansen recommends breeder reactors that convert nuclear 'waste' into 1000 years of clean energy for America, and can charge all our light vehicles and generate "Blue Crude" for heavy vehicles.
https://eclipsenow.wordpress.com/recharge/
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby kublikhan » Mon 03 Jul 2017, 22:52:18

Tesla Model 3 production finally starts this week.
[A little over a year ago, Musk unveiled the Model 3], and said it would go into production in the second half of this year. The industry reaction was something along the lines of: "Yeah, right." It was understandable, given Musk's longtime habit of delaying his announced launches of groundbreaking products. Goldman Sachs downgraded Tesla's stock early this year because of its expectations that the Model 3 would launch behind schedule. Car and Driver bet that the Model 3 wouldn't roll off the assembly line before the fall of 2019.

It looks like they were all wrong. "Model 3 passed all regulatory requirements for production two weeks ahead of schedule. Expecting to complete SN1 on Friday," Musk tweeted late yesterday evening. He followed with a few more details: "Handover party for first 30 customer Model 3's on the 28th! Production grows exponentially, so Aug should be 100 cars and Sept above 1500. Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec."

Unless you've pre-ordered, don't get too excited: At 20,000 Model 3s per month, it will take till summer of 2019 to fill the car's 400,000 pre-orders. If you want one soon after that, consider pre-ordering now.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 03 Jul 2017, 23:59:16

asg70 wrote:There is no range anxiety on a 200+ mile EV.


There is if the next town with a charging station is 300+ miles away :)

map showing where to find public charging stations in USA

Cheers!

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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby eclipse » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 01:33:12

Plantagenet wrote:
asg70 wrote:There is no range anxiety on a 200+ mile EV.


There is if the next town with a charging station is 300+ miles away :)

map showing where to find public charging stations in USA

Cheers!


And if every car is a robot car?
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 10:22:19

eclipse wrote:Agreed! The one thing that it could require, though, is the development of a very efficient battery recycling system that we don't quite have yet.


Well, folks seem to have figured out the lead/acid recycling pretty well, I'm betting they'll get the other kinds figured out as well. EVs aren't even close to climbing the market saturation curve yet, but they'll get there, and when they do the related technologies will catch up just fine. After all, there will be big $$ involved.

eclipse wrote: The reason being that these robot-taxis will probably work so hard and do so many miles a year that they only last a year or two, at most. That means we'll constantly be using the latest model robot-taxi, which is good, but that the world will also use more and more lithium because so many of those cars will only last a year.


Oh, I don't think lithium is the end of the line, as this plays out.

https://news.utexas.edu/2017/02/28/good ... technology
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 10:33:27

pstarr wrote:--range anxiety,


The reason my first EV also had a gas engine. Learned from that experience, a critical ingredient to making informed decisions, and completely opposite of folks who can't be bothered to do, and can only gibber and cut and paste wiki knowledge.

pstarr wrote:--11 miles/hour L2 charging vs 500 miles/10 minutes ICE refueling.


Good thing that folks like my wife don't need a fast charger, and there is plenty of fuel around for when folks want to road trip.

pstarr wrote:--1,344,000 charging stations necessary to replace all existing gas pumps.


Good thing there is no need for this either. Except for the road trippers, and they can use the copiously abundant liquid fuels.

pstarr wrote:Short answer:

    The current list price of a Bolt EV HV battery pack is $15,734.29 and the part number is 24285978.

And expensive batteries.[/quote]

They have gotten cheaper. And will continue to get cheaper. And I've never replaced one in any hybrid I've owned, and the wife hasn't even seen SOC degradation at 70K miles and 3+ years.

Of course, my information comes from personal experience with hybrids, NiMH and Li-Ion, etc etc, unlike those who continue to suckle at the test of fossil fuels for their transportation. I wonder how many hypocritical people like this might pretend to know anything about EVs?
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 6

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 11:11:28

AdamB wrote:
pstarr wrote:Short answer:

    The current list price of a Bolt EV HV battery pack is $15,734.29 and the part number is 24285978.

And expensive batteries.
The reason my first EV also had a gas engine. . . . I wonder how many hypocritical people like this might pretend to know anything about EVs?

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