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THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 5

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 5

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 03 Jan 2017, 21:18:33

There is "peak car" but only for some developed economies. For most of the world, it's the opposite.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 03 Jan 2017, 22:19:18

What is the non English speaking recent immigrant to New York city going to do for work if they don't need him to drive a cab? :)
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 5

Unread postby eclipse » Wed 04 Jan 2017, 18:35:01

OK, I've finally summarised my thinking on this:-

The world's car industry is in a frantic competition to develop and then mass produce the first Robot Electric Taxi-Cab fleet, before the other car companies do so and put them out of business. Why? Because individual car ownership is going to crash over the coming decades, and we'll all hire robot taxis at about 10% of the cost of today's salaried driver-cabs. Robot taxis will be so cheap that one robot taxi will probably displace about 10 individually owned cars. Car corporations will soon not sell cars as a *product*, but individual trips as a *service*. That is huge. It means the world doesn't have to replace 2 billion cars but just 200 million!
It also means the end of worrying about whether or not you can afford an expensive state-of-the-art EV, as the big car companies would be trading in reputation and reliability and comfort. Their cars would have the most-expensive long-range batteries on the market. If a taxi *did* somehow run out of power on a trip, a freshly charged robot taxi would just collect you and complete your journey. You’d probably be home before the service van could recharge the dead car! There's *already* enough spare electricity at night to charge *half* the car fleet, let alone just a *tenth*! Robot EV's will be a complete transport revolution and change much about how we lay out cities: and yet most of us have never really thought about them!
More links and evidence at:
https://eclipsenow.wordpress.com/recharge/
Dr James Hansen recommends breeder reactors that burn nuclear 'waste', giving America 1000 years of clean electricity without mining more uranium. Then America can charge about 86% of their cars on the existing grid, only building more reactors for the last 14%.
https://eclipsenow.wordpress.com/recharge/
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 04 Jan 2017, 19:59:20

eclipse wrote:OK, I've finally summarised my thinking on this:-

The world's car industry is in a frantic competition to develop and then mass produce the first Robot Electric Taxi-Cab fleet, before the other car companies do so and put them out of business. Why? Because individual car ownership is going to crash over the coming decades, and we'll all hire robot taxis at about 10% of the cost of today's salaried driver-cabs. Robot taxis will be so cheap that one robot taxi will probably displace about 10 individually owned cars. Car corporations will soon not sell cars as a *product*, but individual trips as a *service*. That is huge. It means the world doesn't have to replace 2 billion cars but just 200 million!
It also means the end of worrying about whether or not you can afford an expensive state-of-the-art EV, as the big car companies would be trading in reputation and reliability and comfort. Their cars would have the most-expensive long-range batteries on the market. If a taxi *did* somehow run out of power on a trip, a freshly charged robot taxi would just collect you and complete your journey. You’d probably be home before the service van could recharge the dead car! There's *already* enough spare electricity at night to charge *half* the car fleet, let alone just a *tenth*! Robot EV's will be a complete transport revolution and change much about how we lay out cities: and yet most of us have never really thought about them!
More links and evidence at:
https://eclipsenow.wordpress.com/recharge/

Interesting.
Wonder how self driving EVs will do in Hong Kong or New Delhi? A much more intense demand there from people that have never owned an ICE automobile then in America or Europe where the adults are set in their ways and only the young will be first adapters.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 5

Unread postby eclipse » Wed 04 Jan 2017, 21:05:41

Interesting.
Wonder how self driving EVs will do in Hong Kong or New Delhi? A much more intense demand there from people that have never owned an ICE automobile then in America or Europe where the adults are set in their ways and only the young will be first adapters.

Yes, good points, especially when the robot-taxi might have to compete with one of these. We'll see how the economics in India plays out, but as the richer areas start to get flooded by increasingly affordable robot-cars, I can see people buying their car and then letting it out at night or during certain parts of the day to earn money for them, and the big auto companies having to compete with that.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 5

Unread postby ralfy » Thu 05 Jan 2017, 07:46:04

vtsnowedin wrote:What is the non English speaking recent immigrant to New York city going to do for work if they don't need him to drive a cab? :)


Also, who's going to buy goods and services sold by passengers in their business or place of employment? Robots aren't customers.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 5

Unread postby Subjectivist » Thu 05 Jan 2017, 10:19:28

ralfy wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:What is the non English speaking recent immigrant to New York city going to do for work if they don't need him to drive a cab? :)


Also, who's going to buy goods and services sold by passengers in their business or place of employment? Robots aren't customers.


This has been pointed out dozens of times. The world economy today is based on small level consumers. Eliminate jobs for small level consumers and you shrink the world economy no matter what your numbers on paper look like to the accountants this quarter.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 5

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 05 Jan 2017, 15:32:34

eclipse wrote:OK, I've finally summarised my thinking on this:-

The world's car industry is in a frantic competition to develop and then mass produce the first Robot Electric Taxi-Cab fleet, before the other car companies do so and put them out of business. Why? Because individual car ownership is going to crash over the coming decades, and we'll all hire robot taxis at about 10% of the cost of today's salaried driver-cabs.


You are not the only one to come to this conclusion. And I am not the only one who thinks you have arrived at the correct conclusion.

http://mashable.com/2016/05/30/car-owne ... blvSA0skqU
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 5

Unread postby hvacman » Thu 05 Jan 2017, 15:46:58

Almost 25,000 EVs Sold As December 2016 Crushes Sales Records In The US


In total, an estimated ~24,785 plug-in vehicles were sold in America – up 81%, and far besting the previous high of 17,224 set earlier this year in September.

For the full year, ~159,139 sales were achieved, good for a 40,000+ gain, or 37%.

Even more significantly, almost all the major plug-in offerings set new 2016 highs (see full list below), many all-time highs – with the newcomers putting up strong contributions despite just arriving to the US, still with limited availability.


This, despite low oil prices and controversial press. It would appear, with 31 different models now on the market and over 500,000 EV's now driving US roads, that the electric vehicle is an finally an idea Who's Time Has Come.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 5

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 05 Jan 2017, 16:05:37

Europe EV sales doing well as well.

European plug-in electric car sales were relatively strong in November. Total sales for the month amounted to about 18,700. The 189,000 sales year to date also gives us full confidence that 200,000 sales for the year will be crossed for the first time in Europe, perhaps even ~210,000.

Comparing regions, Europe is still well out performing the US, however the gap was closed on a few occasions in the Summer. The expectation is that between December (2016) through March (2017), and then again in the Fall we will also see the US pull even, to slightly ahead, for a time thanks to demand for some mostly US-specific product.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 5

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 05 Jan 2017, 16:40:53

hvacman wrote:This, despite low oil prices and controversial press. It would appear, with 31 different models now on the market and over 500,000 EV's now driving US roads, that the electric vehicle is an finally an idea Who's Time Has Come.

Yup. Very exciting on the PHEV front.

The way the Prius Prime is ramping up, I'm rooting for it to replace much of the standard Prius hybrid volume in the US. If so, sales approaching 10,000 a month would make it the number one volume plug in car model, with a sizable share of the entire plugin market.

Greens love to hate on Toyota for being slow to the EV party, but there are advantages to doing it cautiously, and doing it RIGHT (quality and price).

I don't know if Toyota has the production capacity (esp. batteries) to do this in 2017, but between the $4500 federal tax credit on the Prime and Toyota's aggressive pricing stance on the bottom two trim levels, I don't see why any Prius driver who can live with 4 seats wouldn't prefer the Prime, if it's available in sufficient quantity.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 5

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 05 Jan 2017, 16:44:34

hvacman wrote:Almost 25,000 EVs Sold As December 2016 Crushes Sales Records In The US


In total, an estimated ~24,785 plug-in vehicles were sold in America – up 81%, and far besting the previous high of 17,224 set earlier this year in September.

For the full year, ~159,139 sales were achieved, good for a 40,000+ gain, or 37%.

Even more significantly, almost all the major plug-in offerings set new 2016 highs (see full list below), many all-time highs – with the newcomers putting up strong contributions despite just arriving to the US, still with limited availability.


This, despite low oil prices and controversial press. It would appear, with 31 different models now on the market and over 500,000 EV's now driving US roads, that the electric vehicle is an finally an idea Who's Time Has Come.

160,000 EVs out of 18,000,000 autos and light trucks sold. That is not even one percent. :roll: You have a way to go yet before EVs make a real dent in the market.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 5

Unread postby eclipse » Thu 05 Jan 2017, 18:15:18

160,000 EVs out of 18,000,000 autos and light trucks sold. That is not even one percent. :roll: You have a way to go yet before EVs make a real dent in the market.


160,000 litres of kerosene out of 18,000,000 litres of whale blubber and whale lamps sold. That is not even one percent. :roll: You have a way to go yet before kerosene makes a real dent in the market. :razz:

Also, if this robot-cab thing is for real, today's not quite 1% could actually be closer to not quite 10% of the final robot-cab market if individual car ownership dies. :lol:
Dr James Hansen recommends breeder reactors that burn nuclear 'waste', giving America 1000 years of clean electricity without mining more uranium. Then America can charge about 86% of their cars on the existing grid, only building more reactors for the last 14%.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 5

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 05 Jan 2017, 18:47:26

Time to remind everyone: a hybrid is a fuel burning car which gets about 25% better gas mileage than an standard ICE car because of the electric powertrain. Hybrids have to carry the extra weight of batteries, electric motor, and controller electronics, and thus suffer from lower acceleration, poorer braking, and reduced life for tires, brakes, and suspension components.

PHEVs are hybrids that carry a few hundred more pounds of batteries, and much smaller fuel tanks as the gas motor is only a range extender. Many PHEVs never get regularly plugged in for recharge, and thus are simply used as reduced benefit hybrids.

Real EVs have benefits that Hybrids and PHEVs do not. I think we should count Hybrids and PHEVs with the ICE vehicles, and pure EVs as a separate class of vehicle.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 5

Unread postby Subjectivist » Thu 05 Jan 2017, 18:56:47

Lumping all hybrids and plug in hybrids together is no more valid than lumping my wifes 2012 honda civic together with the neighbors Dodge 2500 pickup just because they both have gasoline ICE drivetrains!
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 5

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 05 Jan 2017, 19:35:45

KaiserJeep wrote:Real EVs have benefits that Hybrids and PHEVs do not. I think we should count Hybrids and PHEVs with the ICE vehicles, and pure EVs as a separate class of vehicle.
The links below break out BEV(pure EVs) from PHEV and do not include non plugin hybrids at all.

Europe YTD(Through November) BEV sales: 91,336
Europe Electric Car Sales

US YTD(Through september) BEV sales: 52,602
* 57% of EV sales were for pure EVs.
* 43% of EV sales were for PHEVs.
US electric car sales climbed to 0.87% of the US car market in September.(Includes PHEV, excludes not plugin hybrids)
US Electric Car Sales Up 20% In 2016
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 5

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 05 Jan 2017, 19:37:54

And global data:

Global Plug-in Sales for 2016 Q3 and Year to Date
Global sales of Plug-in passenger cars stand at 75500 units for September, which is 55% higher than for September last year. Year to date, nearly 518 000 units were sold, 53 % more than during the first 3 quarters of 2015. China is the worlds largest plug-in market, with 225 000 units Plug-in passenger cars sold so far in 2016, a staggering 117% higher than 2015 January-September.

43 % of all Passenger Car Plug-ins sold in China this Year
China is the growth motor for plug-in sales. The US has recovered from the weak development during 2015 (-4 %), posted +19 % for the first quarter and +18 % for Q2. The 3rd quarter saw a boost of 62 % compared to 2015, Tesla and GM Volt being the main sources of the increase. Europe struggles to continue on the 99 % growth rate of last year. Many markets develop strong, but the incentive changes for PHEV in the Netherlands and EVs in Denmark darken the overall picture. Growth was 31 % in Q2, only 13 % in Q2 and 24% for Q3.

Pure EVs gain ground again
The mix of battery electric vehicles (BEV) and plug-in hybrids (PHEV) had moved towards Plug-in Hybrids during previous years. There are differences between the regions, though. In China, the ratio is still two EVs on one PHEV. In USA and Europe, the EV/PHEV mix approached a 50:50 split. New model launches, mostly PHEV in Europe/US and mostly EVs in China play an important part in this.

Q3 saw a significant shift towards BEVs, thanks to the strong Tesla Q3 result and fast growing China, where BEVs gained 10% in the BEV/PHEV mix, compared to the first 3 quarters of 2015.

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Global Plug-in Sales for 2016 Q3 and Year to Date
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 5

Unread postby eclipse » Thu 05 Jan 2017, 21:17:08

So 50% growth in 1 year? Even starting at 1% of the market, it won't take long if it can keep up that kind of growth! What, 12 years? And that's to replace all cars with EV's. Now, surely it will not continue at that rate due to infrastructure pressures, but what if it only has to replace half the world's cars due to the robot-cab phenomena? What if it's only a quarter? And remember that NREL calculated we could charge half the American fleet on existing overnight spare capacity.

What if governments one day catch a vision of clean air in every city, and eventually declare an end-of-life to combustion engines by say 2030 or 2040? The end of the oil industry! If you can't imagine electric trucks having battery swaps for quick replacements, or pausing for half an hour to recharge every 400 miles, what about robot-trucks? What about moving to fast rail? What about boron powered trucks? Dr James Hansen thinks boron is one contender.
Dr James Hansen recommends breeder reactors that burn nuclear 'waste', giving America 1000 years of clean electricity without mining more uranium. Then America can charge about 86% of their cars on the existing grid, only building more reactors for the last 14%.
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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 5

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 06 Jan 2017, 00:05:14

vtsnowedin wrote:
hvacman wrote:Almost 25,000 EVs Sold As December 2016 Crushes Sales Records In The US


In total, an estimated ~24,785 plug-in vehicles were sold in America – up 81%, and far besting the previous high of 17,224 set earlier this year in September.

For the full year, ~159,139 sales were achieved, good for a 40,000+ gain, or 37%.

Even more significantly, almost all the major plug-in offerings set new 2016 highs (see full list below), many all-time highs – with the newcomers putting up strong contributions despite just arriving to the US, still with limited availability.


This, despite low oil prices and controversial press. It would appear, with 31 different models now on the market and over 500,000 EV's now driving US roads, that the electric vehicle is an finally an idea Who's Time Has Come.

160,000 EVs out of 18,000,000 autos and light trucks sold. That is not even one percent. :roll: You have a way to go yet before EVs make a real dent in the market.


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Re: THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 5

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 06 Jan 2017, 02:52:18

Subjectivist wrote:This has been pointed out dozens of times. The world economy today is based on small level consumers. Eliminate jobs for small level consumers and you shrink the world economy no matter what your numbers on paper look like to the accountants this quarter.


I think it has to be mentioned several more times. Some forum members don't seem to get it.
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