THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 3 (merged)

[FarQ3]

I have no more objection to borrowing money to buy a car than a business does to make payroll. Or purchase a piece of land, or build a factory. Borrowing in this post peak world in my experience (random average consumer level) hasn't looked much different than it was prior to peak oil, say, pre-2005. Interest rates were a little better than for all types of purchases, but interest rates now are still pretty good, better than consumer borrowing back around 1990 or so.

I'm not convinced on that one Bruce. I think that borrowing cost 'relative to disposable income' have soared in this past decade and this is only the tip of the iceberg. Buying an EV now could be a smart pre-emptive move to circumvent somewhat the escalating price of oil for the next few years, but it's the changes that 'evident oil decline' will bring that are very scary.

I know to a lot of people this sounds pessimistic but once the decline in conventional oil is evident there is likely to be widespread resource wars and with this will come fuel and electricty rationing. It may well be (like in many energy deficient countries) that only industrial complexes have electricity during daylight hours. Fuel/oil supplies will be cut and rationed, food will be scarce as we have 'un-learnt' how to cater for ourselves. You may only be able to recharge your EV with a solar power unit.

Look at Egypt, trouble has re-emerged there. The problem is not only the government as we are being led to believe, it is also the people being impoverished further as the oil depletes. Oil depletion has changed their lives, changing the government will not fix Egypt. Imagine an averge family driving through central Cairo in an EV right now, do you think they'd feel safer in an old landcruiser?

We've managed to keep our heads above water even though our local oil production peaked and declined some time ago, only because our governments secured cheap foriegn oil. This is changing.

'Egypt' coming soon to a city near you!

The world has never seen political events like those that we are about to witness.

[vision-master]

ppl revolted in Egypt bc they were starving to death.

[FarQ3]

Yes there were similarities V-M but those revolts were due to famine/drought. The revolts today are on a greater scale (due to population) and also secondary to oil exporting becoming oil importing and as this was their major industry the country has gone bust. The hydrocarbon industry has allowed population expansion, human catastrophe is spreading.

[The Practician]

Well, none of the examples provided had anything to do with EVs.

Let me explain it another way.

Overshoot in a nutshell, David M. Delaney, Ottawa / October 2003

... Malthus thought

Your existence is part of the proof that Malthus was wrong, and overshoot relates to carrying capacity which humans have changed, are changing, and will probably continue to change.

"
Remind me bruce, What exactly has been the most important factor in Malthus being "proven" wrong? It didn't have anything to do with the the exploitation of fossil energy resources at all, did it? No, that couldn't be it, could it, because if I remember correctly "crude oil isn't an energy source any more than potatoes are". That's good enough for me. Excuse me while I rush off to spend money I don't have on an electric car I don't need, with the rest of the poor people.

[vision-master]

How about less work? lsol

[The Practician]

Remind me bruce, What exactly has been the most important factor in Malthus being "proven" wrong?

The limits to population growth he envisioned....were not.

It didn't have anything to do with the the exploitation of fossil energy resources at all, did it?

The reason is more basic than that. Humans gradually improved their use of common items they found in their natural environment to do work for them. The burning of black rocks, the conversion of primordial, stinking slop into liquid fuels, the nuclear reaction between plentiful elements in the earths crust, the direct conversion of sunlight itself. All of which are aimed at answering the same problem...how can humans leverage their ingenuity against the items available to them to do more and more work. Work used to support larger populations, change the carrying capacity of their environment, access less efficient means of doing work, but on larger scales, or just the raw assembly of energy to do things not possible without it. The manufacturing of aluminum for example.

Human ingenuity is "more basic" than energy. To paraphrase Harrison Ford, You can write this crap, Bruce, but I can't believe it.

[babystrangeloop]

Your existence is part of the proof that Malthus was wrong, and overshoot relates to carrying capacity which humans have changed, are changing, and will probably continue to change. What does any of this have to do with EVs, cults or cows?

In your own words please tell me what a cargo cult is, thanks.

[The Practician]

Human ingenuity is "more basic" than energy.

No. The answer to the question you asked was more basic than just energy. Using more, better, more difficult to control things to do work was driven by ingenuity (inventiveness, creativity, etc etc). Energy is easy. How hard is it to get a sunburn? But harnessing it for work is something else entirely.

I actually use a "lever" metaphor very similar to yours to articulate my own understanding of how humanity got to where we are now. The difference is my conception gives energy itself its proper due as the fundamental element in the levers foundation, and relegates the idea of "human ingenuity" to the dustbin of progressivist ideological claptrap where it belongs.

[babystrangeloop]

In your own words please tell me what a cargo cult is, thanks.

Hey, its your term, not mine. I figured you just made it all up and were planning on explaining it soon. Left to my own devices, I figure it has something to do with cargo pants, and the children who run around with them sliding down their backsides, revealing their drawers? Maybe a gang of aboriginal traders who used cargo ships to move themselves around, and were mistaken for some sort of religion?

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=cargo+cult

[Outcast_Searcher]

The Volt batteries are warrantied for some 8 years/150k? Figure there is some measurable chance they will crap out under warranty, but my first expectation of having to replace them will be at around the decade mark.

Bruce, you have a far greater confidence in GM than I do. One of the reasons they went bankrupt is they tend to treat their customers like DIRT, especially on serious warranty issues.

I personally experienced this with my new 1995 Saturn, as did hundreds of posters on internet forums complaining about GM. GM's strategy was to always BLAME THE CUSTOMER when the car wouldn't run well (and they couldn't apply a fix that would last). As a 30-something mild-mannered guy they couldn't realistically accuse of racing, they said it was (I AM NOT MAKING THIS UP) because my average trip was too short. Funny how that didn't bother my 1982 Toyota Celica for over 13 years.

To me, the batteries, and relying on GM are the two big reasons NOT to invest in a VOLT. (I'm seriously going to be watching the new 43 MPG city 2012 Toyota Camry as 95% of my driving is in town, and I don't drive much, and the cost looks pretty darn reasonable at about $26,000 -- for the WHOLE midsize hybrid car).

[babystrangeloop]

In your own words please tell me what a cargo cult is, thanks.

Hey, its your term, not mine. I figured you just made it all up and were planning on explaining it soon. Left to my own devices, I figure it has something to do with cargo pants, and the children who run around with them sliding down their backsides, revealing their drawers? Maybe a gang of aboriginal traders who used cargo ships to move themselves around, and were mistaken for some sort of religion?

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=cargo+cult

Thank you for the google search page. It didn't explain cargo cult either, but asked me to type in a question. Perhaps you can cut and paste your favorite explanation for the term, that I may become more educated on YOUR version of what it means? (emphasis mine because even definitions can mean different things to different people, just look how screwed up peak plateau oil is)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0WQw9hO9Qlg#t=1m4s

[FarQ3]

Bruce_S wrote:
Revolutions are never pretty, but you can't claim all revolutions are caused by oil. When the Taliban took over Afghanistan, it didn't have anything to do with oil. Syria doesn't have much at all, yet there they go, same as the Egpytians, who don't have much either. Venezuela has more oil than the rest of OPEC and the place is an economic basket case. Oil-centric views just don't work particularly well.

Bruce, you cannot be serious! Firstly I never said that "all revolutions are caused by oil" What I was pointing out is that these ME countries were all self supplied by oil as a minimum, 'were' being the operative word here! When you delve into the local issues you will find that farming and imported food subsidies stopped as governments lost income due to declining oil.

In Egypt's case, you can't keep subsidising food when you have no income, they went from being an oil exporter to being an oil importer. Tunisia & Syria's (used to be self sufficient) oil imports increased along with increased costs of food.

Take Libya for another example. Libya's oil exports have been declining before the revolution causing the same deal there. The increasing cost of oil has cascaded to the cost of foods worldwide. Libyan people were happy to accept corrupt rulers as long as they were happy themselves. But increases in the cost of food was threatening thier lifestyle.

What seems as a moderate increase in food costs to us turns out to be a MASSIVE increase to someone on 1/10th of our income. Put yourself in the shoes of others that really are worried about IF (not what) they can feed thier kids.

Venezuela, good choice, just goes to show it's not the amount of reserves you have but also the quality of the reserve and the rate of extraction. A huge decline in production since 2000 has seen the cost of living in Venzuela increase markedly as the costs of importing oil (yes Venezuela also imports oil!) has increased. Due to thier drop in production the money going around in Venezuela has dropped dramatically, probably the main reason why they are a basket case.

Yep, agree that Taliban (Afganis) taking over Afganistan probably didn't have much to do with oil however strategically the USA being in Afganistan probably has everything to do with oil. Afganistan is directly between China and one of the worlds major oil producers, Iran. The USA has Iran squished in on both sides, if I was Iran I'd be nervous too!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJ09U_a80MM

Perhaps you might watch this 2 minute vid ...

[FarQ3]

Bruce_S wrote
Actually, the paragraph I quopted and responded to didn't say anything about ME

Well then I suggest you brush up on your geography, Egypt is a ME country.

Bruce_S wrote
I then went and pointed out other places where oil didn't figure into uprisings all that much either. I should have included the US, and I threw in Venezuela as an example of an economic basket case, and they have more flowing oil than anyone else on the planet

Firstly, economic turmoil in the US has affected especially the working poor. The largest increases in expenditure the working poor have experienced since 2000 are related directly to the price of oil. Probably one reason behind you getting yourself a Volt. If oil is so plentiful then why get an EV, that would be just dumb as plentiful oil will see the petroleum prices drop significantly making the purchase of a Volt extremely uneconomical. Secondly, Venezuela sits at number 11 in world oil production so I don't know where you get your production info from but it is clearly incorrect.

Bruce_S wrote
Is it properly footnoted? Unfortunately, in todays world, utube is used as a reference when it is someone else making the same unsubstantiated claim as the person using it as a reference. Before I watch, can you tell me what YOU think it will prove?

Bruce, takes but a second to click on the link and less than 2 minutes to watch. Took you more time to respond with the reason for not watching it than it would have to actually check it out. And really do you have to respond with stubborness? Although indifferent opinions I was prepared to still respect you as a person. The video proves nothing, but in my opinion it lends a lot of muscle to the theory that the US is in the middle east primarily for oil security and not for all the previously stated reasons, terrorism, WMD's etc. It's an interview with John Bolton, former United States Ambassador to the United Nations. Just thought you may have found it interesting. And to make it fair, I am not just pointing at the US as Australia is implicit over there as well. I support the troops as they are the common man only doing thier job, I just don't agree with the orders.

[FarQ3]

Bruce I think you will find that Orinoco is vastly overstated in the thread you referenced, but each to his own. I prefer to believe industry insiders first not company PR or government spin. Even oil industry PR doesn't have as much faith in the Orinoco province as what was stated throughout that OF2 inspired thread. http://www.rigzone.com/training/heavyoil/insight.asp?i_id=185 Even so they are talking up Venezuelas 'maximum possible' production to 5.8 million bbls/day, an increase of 4 million bbls/day on the present. But the increase mooted in this article is highly unlikely to happen as quickly as first thought because the technology has still to be developed. I've worked exclusively with oil companies all of my working life including BP, Shell and ConocoPhillips, the norm is to overstate reservoir potential. The production rates they announce from fresh fields are 'maximum rates' and taper off rapidly over a few years. In addition there's the sand, it's extremely difficult to produce oil with large flowrates with incumbent sand and in case they do, this 'extra heavy crude' is not a desireable refinery feed.

I agree that expensive oil isn't 'the only' factor causing the unrest in 'many' places, but imho it is implicit and in many cases moreso that whomever happens to form government in those places. Oil did make up large percentage of Egyptian export dollars in the mid nineties oil was 80% of Egypt's export income. The money from oil exports was used to subsidise food as Egypt imports nearly all of it's food. Egypt are on the cusp of becoming a net oil importer, all food subsidies have stopped, Egypt's follow-on industries like refining and chemicals are struggling accordingly making it more difficult. Of course riots are related to poverty, food availability and therefore oil. Egypt WAS a good exporter of oil at nearly a million bbls/day, but now exports are close to if not none.

Bruce_S wrote:
I have my reasons for getting a Volt, and they aren't related to the real price of oil being cheaper now than it was in the late-70's/early 80's

Well I looked but haven't seen anywhere any evidence of that, I remember when petrol was less than 3c/litre in Australia in 1974, now it's around $1.35/litre. If you could back that statement up with some evidence .... please.

[Fiddlerdave]

Gee, why would someone buy a car that can be powered by oil, natural gas, hydro power, geothermal power, wind power, solar power, nuclear power, or possibly fusion power, and the necessary filling stations exist wherever there is a electrical socket? Or even in your own backyard?

I just can't imagine why a country would want to build a fleet of such vehicles, and once the wide scale infrastructure of an improved power grid was done, the country is prepared for whatever the most efficient power generation technology comes along, in any mixture Wind in the West, Solar in the Southwest, Water in the North, Nuclear in the East, or wherever any of these work.

Yeah, what kind of a stupid country would encourage investment a stupid transport infrastructure like that?

[Graeme]

Charge EVs with Solar Power? Yes, You Can!

Using clean energy to power an electric car is a good thing. If that clean energy comes from one’s own personal solar power system instead of the power grid, that’s even better. Japan’s GS Yuasa has developed and produced just such a system. The “PV-EV System” (Photo Voltaic – Electric Vehicle) is currently available to consumers in Japan.

The PV-EV system was specifically designed to charge EVs with solar power — the whole thing includes solar panels and lithium ion batteries hooked into an EV quick-charge unit for the greenest EV experience with the lowest CO2 emissions possible. Electricity goes from the solar panels to the batteries, and the batteries to the EV.
Rain, Rain, Go Away; I Need to Charge My Car Today

On the off-chance that the weather doesn’t facilitate much power coming from the solar panels (September hurricane season, we’re looking at you), the PV-EV System also hooks into the local power grid and the needed electricity can be bought the normal way. On the other hand, if the weather’s been wonderful and sunny (why, hello, December) and there’s excess juice in the batteries? That power can be sold right back to the electric company.

cleantechnica

GM Plants Solar Trees to Charge EVs

windsector

[kildred590]

There simply is no possibility that the world could ever switch to using electric cars.

There is simply no possibility that man will ever fly.

Peak oil isn't just about liquid fuel, it is about primary energy

Nope, it's just about conventional oil.

You can extract coal at increasing rates until it all runs out.

-----------------------
Syria is a gas exporter, hence the interest of NATO. They couldn't give a damn about Yemen or Rwanda.

[Bruce_S]

Semantics Ralfy. viable-capable of growing or developing.

That has nothing to do with semantics. Rather, it's hasty generalization, i.e., I'm doing it, so it's viable.

It isn't semantics when I'm using the definition properly Ralfy.

Hindsight is 20/20. So the the interpretation as to "what is happening now".

You're getting confused. You referred to a previous oil crunch and tried to compare that to what is happening right now. But the circumstances between the two are different.

Which you know in hindsight. In the late 70's and early 80's, things were much worse.

[vision-master]

New 2012 Vespa Quarantasei........

[Bruce_S]

#1) Most won't afford big car like Volt because is not financially feasible, even with 2 incomes

Most new car buyers can buy an ICE costing the same amount, I wouldn't fear their ability to collect a Volt and then immediately begin saving money on operating expense.

#2) Smaller cars would require one parent staying at home and home schooling (thus reducing family income)

Baloney. I can stick 5 people in a small car as easily as I can 5 people in a midsized sedan.

#3) America is too spread out

Not for those who are fortunate enough to live in urban or suburban areas. Which is probably most Americans. For them, the Volt is great.

#4) Zoning sucks in this country

Fortunately, that can be changed quite easily.

#5) BAU will end because transportation will cost too much.

Sounds similar to one of those "natural gas cliff in the USA", "rolling permanent blackouts because of Olduvai gorge" and "walmart trucks will stop running" predictions which didn't come out quite like expected.