THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 3 (merged)

[Graeme]

I posted this in another thread earlier today. I'd like to repost it here:

As plug-in hybrid and all-electric cars come to market, electricity will replace gasoline. An analysis by Professor Michael McElroy of Harvard indicates that running a car on wind-generated electricity could cost the equivalent of 80-cent-a-gallon gasoline.

grist

[Bruce_S]

The price trend of oil has been going up for more than a decade, but this has not resulted in substitution on any substantial scale. If anything there are more ICE vehicles around than before and a greater reliance on oil than ever.

Quite true, but I would venture that real crude prices have been going up a lot longer than just a single decade. More like a couple. And yes, obviously these higher prices haven't changed our behavior much. Fortunately, even without the pressing need of these much higher prices, we have already designed, invested and mass manufactured quite nice alternatives to the ICE powered car. One test drive and you too can be convinced that the future is here, and it is electric.

Only shit stirrers would say that peak oil would or could cause an immediate die-off, which means you are full of shit.

I didn't say it. Others did, and I just referenced them. I certainly don't believe for a second that a slowly declining commodity like oil would ever cause die off, because any alternative is better, and most humans can figure that one out instinctively. They might whine a lot while figuring it out, but that is expected as well.We are talking about the bad reputation these people gave us in another thread, so I will not repeat the comments I have made there.

However very high oil prices in 2007/08 did contribute to kicking the piss out of the world economy, which increasingly is only being held together with copious amounts of ear wax and navel fluff.

Well, on the US at least, it is also being held together by increasing home ownership. Again.

http://bottomline.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2 ... p-edges-up

And we are buying more cars again.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45117817/ns ... rIWWmD2Jcw

And apparently the private sector is doing some hiring as well.

http://bottomline.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2 ... in-october

Wee bit more than ear wax and such methinks.

[peripato]

I posted this in another thread earlier today. I'd like to repost it here:

As plug-in hybrid and all-electric cars come to market, electricity will replace gasoline. An analysis by Professor Michael McElroy of Harvard indicates that running a car on wind-generated electricity could cost the equivalent of 80-cent-a-gallon gasoline.

grist

Again, oil increased in price more than 10 fold in 10 years (n.b. oil supply to market => this is signal) with no substitution of any meaningful sort during this time. There are now more petrol driven cars and a greater dependence on oil than ever before.

[peripato]

The price trend of oil has been going up for more than a decade, but this has not resulted in substitution on any substantial scale. If anything there are more ICE vehicles around than before and a greater reliance on oil than ever.

Quite true, but I would venture that real crude prices have been going up a lot longer than just a single decade. More like a couple. And yes, obviously these higher prices haven't changed our behavior much. Fortunately, even without the pressing need of these much higher prices, we have already designed, invested and mass manufactured quite nice alternatives to the ICE powered car. One test drive and you too can be convinced that the future is here, and it is electric.

Only shit stirrers would say that peak oil would or could cause an immediate die-off, which means you are full of shit.

I didn't say it. Others did, and I just referenced them. I certainly don't believe for a second that a slowly declining commodity like oil would ever cause die off, because any alternative is better, and most humans can figure that one out instinctively. They might whine a lot while figuring it out, but that is expected as well.We are talking about the bad reputation these people gave us in another thread, so I will not repeat the comments I have made there.

However very high oil prices in 2007/08 did contribute to kicking the piss out of the world economy, which increasingly is only being held together with copious amounts of ear wax and navel fluff.

Well, on the US at least, it is also being held together by increasing home ownership. Again.

http://bottomline.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2 ... p-edges-up

And we are buying more cars again.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45117817/ns ... rIWWmD2Jcw

And apparently the private sector is doing some hiring as well.

http://bottomline.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2 ... in-october

Wee bit more than ear wax and such methinks.

I stand corrected on the shit-stirrers thing.
The US only, but not the Eurozone - formally world's largest economy? Have you not heard of globalisation? The whole world is joined together now. Neck and knee, arses to elbows, as they say.
You mean the kind of home ownership that resulted in the house price collapse of 2006/07 and ongoing?
More cars than before 2007/08? Many of these new vehicles electric?
Private sector is doing how much hiring?? Economy is still losing net jobs every month since it "recovered" in 2009.

[rangerone314]

Hey big news! My piggy bank is full of quarters now. I want to go out and buy a Volt! How much do they cost?

Where I live, with all $13Gs of tax credits? Less than a loaded Toyota Camry. But that isn't the real value of owning one, just think of how cool you will be EVing off to work when your friends are out of fuel because of all the rationing and shortages!

With the government pretty much broke, how many $13G's of tax credits can be paid out?

[Graeme]

Nissan accelerating rollout of EV quick charge network in Europe

Nissan is accelerating plans for a European-wide Quick Charge (QC) network for electric vehicles by giving 400 new quick charging stations free of charge to EV charging operators.

Strategically located, these new points will boost existing networks and give EV customers greater freedom and flexibility by effectively extending the range of their car.

By recharging batteries in a fraction of the time usually needed this radical step will help drive more customers towards electric vehicles such as the Nissan LEAF. The advanced lithium ion batteries in Nissan LEAF can be recharged from 0 to 80% capacity in just 30 minutes using a quick charger.

Although a range between charges of up to 175km will be enough for most Nissan LEAF owners, the spread of Quick Charger networks will allow drivers to travel longer distances in a day. Recharging a Nissan LEAF with a quick charger takes a little longer than it takes to refuel a conventional car and is significantly cheaper.

Electric Vehicle News

[Bruce_S]

Again, oil increased in price more than 10 fold in 10 years (n.b. oil supply to market => this is signal) with no substitution of any meaningful sort during this time.

Nominal cost will confuse people every time. Real oil prices were higher during the late 70's early 80's "energy crisis" then they are now, and the result was a massive economic efficiency gain in terms of dollar of GDP per barrel, as well as barrel per capita in the United States.

No new supply is required when efficiency can make that big a jump in economic use or decrease in per capita demand. I wonder if anyone is advocating that this same effect is happening right now, and with the possibility of the same results?

There are now more petrol driven cars and a greater dependence on oil than ever before.

But here in America, on average, we are all using much less, allowing those greater numbers of cars. And now with the mass manufacturing of real, reasonable to drive, reasonably ranged and priced EVs and whatnot, the potential to continue using less and less oil per capita seems like a quite possible scenario.

[Anvil]

Electric cars will only become viable when the world number one most corrupted power the USA owned by the fossil fuels TM ceases to become a major power with the sole goal of interrupting the world transition from a peacefully transitions to electric cars and renewables.

[ralfy]

"Growing worse"? You mean, like as crude prices trend higher, it makes more and more sense for individuals to own EVs as well? I can just see some fat soccer mom and her three chubby kids getting into a pedicab on one side of LA and demanding to be taken to the other. Versus grabbing a median priced auto like the Volt, and using good old made in the USA electricity to haul her family from one side of town to the other. Sorry ralfy, I would vote for the Volt. Or even a Leaf if I must.

Not yet, but let's see how your "vote" is turning out.

And peak oil some years ago was supposed to cause the die off of a few billion people, or at the very least slowdown plastic pumpkin production. Instead we hit 7 billion the other day, with nary a slowdown in sight, and trick or treating with the kids the other night revealed no shortage of plastic. Or pumpkins. Color me jaded

Peak oil was supposed to do that? LOL.

[Bruce_S]

??

Electric cars are viable now, I drove one a few weeks back. Sure, they aren't selling like Corollas quite yet, but oil isn't priced all that high either. We had higher prices back 31 years ago as a matter of fact, which was the warning shot across the bows of world crude usage. Some of us paid attention...want to bet those of us who remember those high prices from 1980 are among those who see quite the advantage of a car like the Volt?

[ralfy]

Nominal cost will confuse people every time. Real oil prices were higher during the late 70's early 80's "energy crisis" then they are now, and the result was a massive economic efficiency gain in terms of dollar of GDP per barrel, as well as barrel per capita in the United States.

That's because of money creation. Hence, energy use per unit of GDP peaked.

No new supply is required when efficiency can make that big a jump in economic use or decrease in per capita demand. I wonder if anyone is advocating that this same effect is happening right now, and with the possibility of the same results?

It's not happening right now, at least according to a recent BP report.

But here in America, on average, we are all using much less, allowing those greater numbers of cars. And now with the mass manufacturing of real, reasonable to drive, reasonably ranged and priced EVs and whatnot, the potential to continue using less and less oil per capita seems like a quite possible scenario.

But this is being offset by increasing resource demand for the rest of the world. See the BP report mentioned elsewhere for details.

[ralfy]

??

Electric cars are viable now, I drove one a few weeks back. Sure, they aren't selling like Corollas quite yet, but oil isn't priced all that high either. We had higher prices back 31 years ago as a matter of fact, which was the warning shot across the bows of world crude usage. Some of us paid attention...want to bet those of us who remember those high prices from 1980 are among those who see quite the advantage of a car like the Volt?

If viability means "I drove one a few weeks ago back," then there's nothing else for us to debate on, although another forum member can argue the opposite because he hasn't been able to drive one.

And the second oil crunch took place because of the Iranian Revolution. What is happening now is a lot different.

[Bruce_S]

"Growing worse"? You mean, like as crude prices trend higher, it makes more and more sense for individuals to own EVs as well? Sorry ralfy, I would vote for the Volt. Or even a Leaf if I must.

Not yet, but let's see how your "vote" is turning out.

According to the peak oil playbook, my vote for a Volt wasn't supposed to even be possible. Once upon a time, peak oil was supposed to stop mankind's ability to mitigate against it, sort of a vicious catch-22 spiral of doom, less oil, less means to mitigate, meaning less crude, meaning less means to mitigate, etc etc.

So when peak oil happened, and a company like GM was still able to complete the testing of the Volt, and its construction, distribution and sale, and it turns out to be quite a decent, non crude powered car? Add it to one of the 7 reasons.

And peak oil some years ago was supposed to cause the die off of a few billion people, or at the very least slowdown plastic pumpkin production.

Peak oil was supposed to do that? LOL.

Of course it was. It is funny in hindsight, that people would often confuse peak oil with die off, but it was once quite common. Of course, some of the authors of those sorts of silly ideas are no longer in the peak oil sales business, and it is obvious why when long timers such as yourself think their ideas are now funny. Nothing worse for someone who thinks of themselves as being a serious thinker to be laughed at by those who once worshipped at their feet.

[Bruce_S]

If viability means "I drove one a few weeks ago back," then there's nothing else for us to debate on, although another forum member can argue the opposite because he hasn't been able to drive one.

Semantics Ralfy. viable-capable of growing or developing.

I got news Ralfy, if I can drive it, buy it, insure it, and run to work in it, its viable on its face.

And the second oil crunch took place because of the Iranian Revolution. What is happening now is a lot different.

Hindsight is 20/20. So the the interpretation as to "what is happening now".

[pstarr]

If viability means "I drove one a few weeks ago back," then there's nothing else for us to debate on, although another forum member can argue the opposite because he hasn't been able to drive one.

Semantics Ralfy. viable-capable of growing or developing.

I got news Ralfy, if I can drive it, buy it, insure it, and run to work in it, its viable on its face.

And the second oil crunch took place because of the Iranian Revolution. What is happening now is a lot different.

Hindsight is 20/20. So the the interpretation as to "what is happening now".

Dude. A few went to the moon but no more. You and your volt remain curiosities.

[Bruce_S]

Dude. A few went to the moon but no more. You and your volt remain curiosities.

Dude. Go drive one. It isn't a curiosity, it is a car which you can use like you would any ICE powered car, and it can do it all powered by electricity. I am stung by the pessimism for what is the closest thing to a solution to peak oil as anyone has yet built.

[Revi]

I don't think full sized electric cars are going to be the solution. I think small electric vehicles and living in town is the way to go. We drive our GEM car every day, and it only costs about a penny a mile. It is way cheaper than any other kind of transportation. Right now the average car owner in the US is spending almost 9000 dollars a year. NEV's cost about $1500 a year at most. What do you think people will end up with? They will drop a gas car and get one of these. Most people think we have to use 4000 pounds of steel to get a gallon of milk, but we use our 1000 pound electric car and get the same thing.

[vision-master]

Or scooters. I still see em about town and the temps are in the 30's right now.

Yesterday, I seen someone with a mountain bike that had a gas engine mounted to it, he was changing a flat tire along the side of the road. I was going to stop and tell him he can go tubeless now.

The new Yamaha Zuma 50cc claims 130+ mpg now.

[Bruce_S]

I don't think full sized electric cars are going to be the solution. I think small electric vehicles and living in town is the way to go.

Could be. But that is okay. Monster trucks are no more the problem than econo-boxes, both are just different versions of the same thing, used for different purposes. I could use a little 30mph local electric, and I know some people could use a full sized, full speed, range extended Volt.

NEV's cost about $1500 a year at most. What do you think people will end up with?

Whatever best suits their needs, and they can afford? If they wanted a little runabout, which I could certainly use, they get a small one. If they want more range and power and speed, they get a big one. Just like people choose among monster trucks and econoboxes. It just happens that the big versions are coming out first, although you could argue that electric bikes and scooters are the current "small" version of full sized electric cars.

Most people think we have to use 4000 pounds of steel to get a gallon of milk, but we use our 1000 pound electric car and get the same thing

Revi, you ROCK. Early adopters building their own solutions are the kind of people who will make peak oil one of those things people laugh over as they EV off to work 30 years from now. "Oil? Whats that? Oh yeah, now I remember! That stinky, smelly stuff we used to burn in our cars, resulting in bad emissions, noise, our hands stank after we filled them up, boy were our parents silly. Good thing we don't have to do that any more!"

[Bruce_S]

Or scooters. I still see em about town and the temps are in the 30's right now.

Electric ones. Ones which burn crude are still part of the crude wasting problem.

The new Yamaha Zuma 50cc claims 130+ mpg now.

Pretty good! Do they come with sidecars?