THE Electric Vehicle (EV) Thread pt 3 (merged)

[Bruce_S]

I have no idea what you intend to say.

Perhaps focusing on what I said, rather than trying to guess what I might say in the future, would be helpful?

[Ferretlover]

Yeah because all these young people are going to have 1-2 miles commutes to work(probably Starbucks or some trendy cafe) and it's never gonna rain or snow on that commute path...

Its called a bus and it's a hell of a lot cheaper than a luxury toy like the chevy volt. and if it's not the bus, then used conventional vehicles, which might be surprisingly cheap to purchase and maintain, for those who have jobs, if used sparingly/socially. Just get it though your head that the youth are not interested into going $30+K into debt to perpetuate the consumer/waste economy.

Also, I am not interested in paying extra for electricty because a bunch of clowns want to run their cars on it, and extra generating capacity is required. I think that if people are able to plug in their cars at home, their should be some kind of separate metering system that charges extra for the electricty you use to charge your car. I'm not sure exactly how this would work or exactly how much more would be a reasonable amount to charge, but I am going to be pissed if "we" have to pay more for electricity because the upper "middle" class is all driving electric cars.

[vision-master]

and avoiding gasoline taxes I might add.

[Bruce_S]

Its called a bus and it's a hell of a lot cheaper than a luxury toy like the chevy volt.

Luxury toy? When they cost (with subsidy) right around the same price as a median/mean car in America? Sorry, that is closer to "average toy" than luxury. Obviously you haven't shopped a Lexus lot recently!

and if it's not the bus, then used conventional vehicles, which might be surprisingly cheap to purchase and maintain, for those who have jobs, if used sparingly/socially. Just get it though your head that the youth are not interested into going $30+K into debt to perpetuate the consumer/waste economy.

You mean, "going $30+K into debt to perpetuate survival in a peak oil economy" don't you? At which point in time that $30+K might not be such a bad investment if it means YOU get to keep your job, while the poor buggers now walking/bicycling/busing don't because they arrive at work all sweaty and smelly, let alone the physically non fit who can't even show up. Then it might be the best investment you ever made. Something peak oilers, if anyone, should be acutely aware of.

Also, I am not interested in paying extra for electricty because a bunch of clowns want to run their cars on it, and extra generating capacity is required.

Economies of scale covers that problem pretty well, unless most EV owners try and dial back the problems on non-EV drivers by putting some PV on their rooftops? And while these EV drivers might be clowns to you, that sure sounds like sour grapes!! Take one for a test drive, imagine how cool it would be, the first guy on your block or at work to have one, and when peak oil arrives? You'll be the hero of the block.

[Graeme]

The Best Electric Car For Your Money

The premise of this article is that every American household with a place to plug in an electric vehicle (EV), and a place to put in solar photovoltaic system (PV), should get that EV and that PV, because then you drive for free and thereby save over $60,000. This opportunity might apply to 100 million of America=s 256 million vehicles. In addition to saving a great deal of money, you’ll be supporting the American economy, reducing global warming, and improving health, and even helping to bring peace to the world. Yes, dare to think big.


The first mass-produced EV is the Nissan Leaf (I say this with sincere apologies to Tesla, which has sold 1500 Roadsters since 2008, but Nissan is selling about 25,000 Leafs this year). The Leaf received a government mileage rating of 2.9 miles per kilowatt-hour. (A kilowatt-hour (KWh) is the electrical “energy” unit: 1 KWh is the amount of electricity energy needed to light ten conventional 100 watt light bulbs for one hour, and an EV batteries pack is rated in KWh. A kilowatt (KW) is the electrical “power” unit: 1 KW is about 1.3 horsepower, and an EV motor is rated in KW.) From my experience, the government rating seems quite conservative, as I drive my Leaf hard and yet I’m averaging about 4 miles/KWh (but fast highway travel does bring it down, and there is a small amount of loss from the plug to the battery). However, to stay on script, we’ll use the government figure, which means that to go 12,000 miles you need about 4000KWH annually. There are several ways of calculating the cost of 4000KWh. (And, in the first place, it’s even an assumption that you will be paying for all of that electricity: there are more and more businesses and commercial locations where you can charge the car for free.) But assuming you do pay for charging, you have three options, from the really great to the unbelievably great: you can charge the EV on your existing electricity rate plan; you can change your rate plan; or you can have PV installed (along with a change in your rate plan). Here a quick breakdown of each. If you pay for the electricity without changing your rate plan then electricity to charge your EV is likely to cost between $.10/KWh and $.40/KWh: there are a number of variables, including where you live, how much electricity you already use, the time of year, etc. For instance, in California the likely cost might be about $.30/KWh (this figure is likely to be lower elsewhere). For 4000KWh, this means an annual cost of about $1200 to charge your EV -- a tidy savings of about 50% off the fuel and maintenance cost of a gas car. Wow. But wait, it gets even better.

ibtimes

[MD]

It all sounds fabulous until you bring the electrical power grid into the equation.

Mass transit and ultralight vehicles are the way to keep us moving.

[Graeme]

6. Change the rules of electricity production

There will never be a future free of fossil fuels if utilities’ profits depend on how much electricity they sell, or if distributed renewable sources can’t feed electricity onto the grid.

While we cannot anticipate game changing events or the speed of transformation that can be enabled by technology, the electric system can be ready to respond quickly to threats and take advantage of opportunities.

“The key is to level the playing field for actors to make intelligent and economically optimal decisions,” said James Newcomb, RMI Program Director. “By revamping utilities’ rules and operating models to align with the opportunities presented by efficiency and renewables, we can build a more customer-centric and less risky electric system.”

rmi

Electric Vehicle Battery Market to Reach US$14.6 Billion by 2017

According to a new report from Pike Research, the combined market for Li-ion batteries in HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs will soar over the next several years, increasing from $2.0 billion worldwide in 2011 to more than $14.6 billion by 2017. The cleantech market intelligence firm forecasts that capacity shipments of Li-ion batteries for the transportation market will increase from 2.5 million kilowatt hours (kWh) to nearly 28.0 million kWh during the same period.

"The government subsidies that gave the initial impetus to the electric vehicle market will continue to drive the market in the near term," says research director John Gartner. "However, significant reductions in battery cost are imperative for the industry to grow to its target levels. While the cost of lithium ion batteries is gradually declining, cost still represents a significant hurdle as it accounts for a large portion of total EV cost."

Gartner adds that there are currently more than half a dozen battery chemistries with unique properties for power, energy density, and life cycle performance that are being commercialized. While Pike Research believes that there is no single chemistry that will emerge as the clear winner, owing to the tradeoffs in their various properties, initial indications point to a greater interest in the lithium iron phosphate chemistry in the years to come due to its superior performance characteristics coupled with increased safety.

Pike Research analysis indicates that nearly half the demand for Li-ion transportation batteries is likely to come from Asia, led primarily by China, while Europe and the United States are likely to constitute 25% and 21% shares of the world market, respectively.

ceasiamag

Solar power + super batteries = Reliable energy for the future?

What types of big batteries or other energy storage systems will work best with renewable energy and the existing grid to ensure reliable power supplies in the future? A two-year research project under way in Arizona is seeking the answer to that question.

The Energy Storage Management Research and Testing (SMRT) site is being developed through a team effort involving German solar power company SOLON, Tucson Electric Power (TEP) and the Arizona Research Institute for Solar Energy (AzRISE) at the University of Arizona. Saft Batteries is now the latest to come on board, providing lithium-ion batteries to help support the various tests to take place.

The project’s goal is to test how well different energy storage technologies can work with photovoltaic (PV) solar panels to provide reliable power for the grid. Knowing the best strategies can help utilities make the most of their growing renewable portfolios, which — while providing clean energy — can be harder to manage because of their intermittent nature.

“Storage for renewable energy will be essential for utilities, as they increase the penetration of clean energy generation into the utilities’ grids,” said William Richardson, SOLON’s director of research & development for SOLON Corporation.

The SMRT site (sounds like a James Bond-type organization, doesn’t it?) features a 1.6-megawatt (MW) solar plant built by SOLON that can have accommodate a variety of new or replacement storage technologies for testing. The first phase, launched this August, began with a compressed-air energy storage (CAES) technology that was designed and built by faculty and students at the University of Arizona.

greenbang

[The Practician]

(on EV's being luxury toys)
Luxury toy? When they cost (with subsidy) right around the same price as a median/mean car in America? Sorry, that is closer to "average toy" than luxury. Obviously you haven't shopped a Lexus lot recently!

I'm sorry, But I don't share your delusions about what "average" means, and I certainly don't share them about what average, for North Americans, is going to mean going into the future. I consider any new car over $20,000 a luxury toy, whether a person "needs" it to get to work or not. I'm willing to throw probably 80% of the "work" trucks out there in with that too. The whole auto/suburbia thing is all about luxury toys, toys people like you have been convinced are something else. I have news for you. Toys is what they are, it is what they always were, it is what they always will be.

and if it's not the bus, then used conventional vehicles, which might be surprisingly cheap to purchase and maintain, for those who have jobs, if used sparingly/socially. Just get it though your head that the youth are not interested into going $30+K into debt to perpetuate the consumer/waste economy.

[/quote]You mean, "going $30+K into debt to perpetuate survival in a peak oil economy" don't you? At which point in time that $30+K might not be such a bad investment if it means YOU get to keep your job, while the poor buggers now walking/bicycling/busing don't because they arrive at work all sweaty and smelly, let alone the physically non fit who can't even show up. Then it might be the best investment you ever made. Something peak oilers, if anyone, should be acutely aware of.[/quote]

Nobody goes $30K into debt to "perpetuate survival"! how out of touch with reality are you, anyway? are you an economist or something? Maybe they go a few K in the hole to buy a decent used vehicle, or work something out with others who have a similar commute. You know what though? if being a debt serf is your thing, fine. go for it. buy that 30k new car to get to that sweet temp job you landed making $15 an hour, I don't care. I know people don't get fired for taking public transit to work, or working up a mild sweat on the way in.

Also, I am not interested in paying extra for electricity because a bunch of clowns want to run their cars on it, and extra generating capacity is required.

Economies of scale covers that problem pretty well, unless most EV owners try and dial back the problems on non-EV drivers by putting some PV on their rooftops? And while these EV drivers might be clowns to you, that sure sounds like sour grapes!! Take one for a test drive, imagine how cool it would be, the first guy on your block or at work to have one, and when peak oil arrives? You'll be the hero of the block.[/quote]

Oh, Right. I forgot "economies of scale" in electrical energy production are going to save BAU in the face of peak oil. It's my fault, really, I forgot for a minute Peak oil ended at the price at the pump. Thanks for clearing that up, Bruce, maybe I'll head down to the Chevy dealership tomorrow and test drive one of those sweet Volts! Then I can kick back and relax...not a care in the world, excluding the rent, the phone bill, food, and my new monthly car payment!

[Bruce_S]

Oh, Right. I forgot "economies of scale" in electrical energy production are going to save BAU in the face of peak oil.

"Are" going to save? I would say, already have, particularly when the only need is additional, reasonably priced generation to continue BAU in commuter transport.

It's my fault, really, I forgot for a minute Peak oil ended at the price at the pump. Thanks for clearing that up, Bruce, maybe I'll head down to the Chevy dealership tomorrow and test drive one of those sweet Volts! Then I can kick back and relax...not a care in the world, excluding the rent, the phone bill, food, and my new monthly car payment!

Each person must do their own calculation as to the value of having transport which doesn't require crude based fuels for its day to day operation. Your best calculation may be to ride a bus. Me, I am considering spending the median price of a new car in America, to buy a median priced car in America, except without the worries of those little numbers meaning much down at the corner convenience store.

[The Practician]

Oh, Right. I forgot "economies of scale" in electrical energy production are going to save BAU in the face of peak oil.

"Are" going to save? I would say, already have, particularly when the only need is additional, reasonably priced generation to continue BAU in commuter transport.

It's my fault, really, I forgot for a minute Peak oil ended at the price at the pump. Thanks for clearing that up, Bruce, maybe I'll head down to the Chevy dealership tomorrow and test drive one of those sweet Volts! Then I can kick back and relax...not a care in the world, excluding the rent, the phone bill, food, and my new monthly car payment!

Each person must do their own calculation as to the value of having transport which doesn't require crude based fuels for its day to day operation. Your best calculation may be to ride a bus. Me, I am considering spending the median price of a new car in America, to buy a median priced car in America, except without the worries of those little numbers meaning much down at the corner convenience store.

Yeah, you would say "already have", because according to your cute little graph we live in the year 2032.

Bruce, it's fine if you want to buy a PHEV or whatever. You have gobs of money to spend on that kind of crap, fine. I am not against electric cars per say, just the idea they can replace ICE's and allow BAU to continue. but let me tell you how it is: if you can afford to drive a new car, you can afford to drive a new car. That's it. Nobody's giving out hero cookies for going electric over ICE.

[Bruce_S]

Yeah, you would say "already have", because according to your cute little graph we live in the year 2032.

Not at all. The graph simply shows that current PV prices are reasonable, and if you knew what they were extrapolating from you would be aware that the prices have been screaming downward over the years. Claims related to lack of reasonable priced electric generation are what I was referring to when I said that economies of scale make an electrical transport future a reasonable solution, and not just to folks buying "luxury" cars (otherwise known as the same priced cars everyone else is buying) without needing gasoline much. You do realize that, while possibly more expensive than some are willing to pay, these types of autos allow continued commuter transport across America, even when faced by peak oil shortages and rationing, right? Which has a certain value far beyond their median sized price.

Bruce, it's fine if you want to buy a PHEV or whatever. You have gobs of money to spend on that kind of crap, fine. I am not against electric cars per say, just the idea they can replace ICE's and allow BAU to continue.

That is the entire point. BAU fighting back as it were, making certain that we can continue the American commuting lifestyle. While saving the world from CO2 emissions, wasting crude, etc etc.

but let me tell you how it is: if you can afford to drive a new car, you can afford to drive a new car. That's it. Nobody's giving out hero cookies for going electric over ICE.

Unfortunate, considering that driving an EV has a much higher "save the world" component than beating around in something sucking down dinosaur bones, inefficiently burning them, and spewing out vast amounts of CO2 out the other end. Peak oil isn't the only problem our world faces.

[PeakOiler]

According to the most recent EIA Gasoline Demand data for the week ending 10/21/11, America burned 8.5 million barrels per day. That's about 283,900,000 kw-hrs in one day.

A gallon of gasoline has the energy equivalent of about 33.4 kW-hr.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gasoline_gallon_equivalent

A typical nuclear power plant is rated at about 900 MW.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orders_of_magnitude_(power)

America would need about 13 more 900 MW nuclear power plants to supply power for all those cars. (I haven't heard of any new nukes getting built in the US, however.) Otherwise the electricity needed for replacing all gasoline powered vehicles to maintain BAU with electric cars would, for the most part, just be burning more hydrocarbons (e.g., coal and natural gas).

Then there are all the diesel-powered vehicles...

[PeakOiler]

My estimate of the number of nukes needed is too low. Nukes operate at about 90% of capacity. Then there would be the need to upgrade all the electrical infrastructure to handle the additional load. Oh and then there's the power losses transferring the electricity through the grid...
And how about the energy loss transferring the electricity to the car batteries during charging...

What else?

[Bruce_S]

What else?

Why do you assume we would only build nukes for new electrical generation? It would seem reasonable to suppose that we use our massive new-found natural gas reserves as well, continue the buildout of windmills, PVs on every rooftop, a nuke here or there where deemed reasonable...?

More of a multi-solution issue rather than just a "go forth and build nukes!" type argument?

[Outcast_Searcher]

It would seem reasonable to suppose that we use our massive new-found natural gas reserves as well, continue the buildout of windmills, PVs on every rooftop, a nuke here or there where deemed reasonable...?

More of a multi-solution issue rather than just a "go forth and build nukes!" type argument?

Well, if we weren't basically bankrupt, and run by an establishment (both sides are guilty) of endless spending on more defense AND governmental expansion at every opportunity (which costs money we don't have) - then things like "PV on every rooftop" might be remotely feasible - eventually.

I'm all for converting to green as it becomes financially practical. However, I don't see the first world (especially the U.S.) making that much of a priority until hydrocarbon prices become unsustainably high enough to FORCE TPTB to admit we have a real problem.

By then, I fear today's financial mess will look like a picnic. And BTW, the entitlement class STILL will not want to give up ANY of their goodies, deserved or not.

[Frank]

Typical EV's are at least twice as efficient as regular ICE-powered vehicles, even if all the electricity comes from fossil fuel power plants. Factor 2 is still a big deal. EV's are the only motorized transportation scheme where future environmental costs can decrease i.e. with more renewables online, pollution will decrease. I'm not denying that everyone's sense of entitlement surrounding personal transportation should not be challenged, but until we're willing to account for external costs I can't see the existing paradigm changing much.

[vision-master]

But how efficient are our existing power plants that will charge these EV's? lsol

Typical thermal efficiency for electrical generators in the industry is around 33% for coal and oil-fired plants, and up to 50% for combined-cycle gas-fired plants. Plants designed to achieve peak efficiency while operating at capacity will be less efficient when operating off-design (i.e. temperatures too low.)[3]


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fossil_fuel_power_plant

[Bruce_S]

But how efficient are our existing power plants that will charge these EV's? lsol

Again, there is no requirement to build only one type of powerplanet for new generation. There isn't even a requirement to build powerplants, just change construction codes to require PVs on rooftops. Slap up some more windmills, whatever strikes your fancy. Fortunately we live in an age of abundance of natural gas in America, and we all know that natural gas generation is cleaner than coal, we can use that as well, or even do micro-generation in our homes.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Micro_comb ... _and_power

I think the main resistance to EVs as one of the solutions to the problems facing the world is that they don't require a destruction of the current American car paradigm. Peak oil is psychologically linked to being anti-SUV or anti-car, and the idea that we can keep right on trucking/suving except using a different fuel is just disruptive to that goal.

[vision-master]

How will we pay for our roads then?

[PeakOiler]

What else?

Why do you assume we would only build nukes for new electrical generation? It would seem reasonable to suppose that we use our massive new-found natural gas reserves as well, continue the buildout of windmills, PVs on every rooftop, a nuke here or there where deemed reasonable...?

More of a multi-solution issue rather than just a "go forth and build nukes!" type argument?

I never wrote that I was pro-nuke.

I was only implying that nukes don't use a hydrocarbon for generating electricity. (No CO2 emissions.) I was also trying to point out some of the hurdles that an all-electric vehicle future has. I only see electric vehicles as having a small niche in the future of transportation. It certainly won't be BAU.

Natural gas, although less polluting than coal, still releases CO2 into the air when burned.
I just think electric cars are an attempt at keeping transportation habits the same as it presently is with gasoline, a stepping-stone if you will. The future of transportation will become less and less miles driven, but certainly not BAU as we now know it.

People also don't seem to grasp the concept of the concentrated energy density of gasoline compared to other types of energy, especially electrical energy, i.e., the energy density of batteries, which is pretty low compared to a liquid fuel.