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THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Re: THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby Subjectivist » Fri 10 Nov 2017, 17:03:26

Sure feels like winter here today. Last night we went from occasional frost to 22 F. Everything here is frozen badly.
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Re: THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 10 Nov 2017, 23:59:14

Yeah, La Nina will bring something more like a normal winter, and that will mean some new cold records will be set in various places. Generally, though, warm/cold record ratios, which should average out to about 1/1, have been more like 3 warm records broken for every cold record broken, iirc, and trending further in that direction.

La Nina's aren't what they used to be:

http://grist.org/briefly/la-nina-is-her ... on-record/

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Re: THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 22 Dec 2017, 12:51:29

Graph and temperature table at link below the quote.

21 December 2017

The Met Office global temperature forecast suggests that 2018 will be another very warm year globally but is unlikely to be a new record due to a moderate La Niña in the Pacific.

The Met Office forecasts the global average temperature for 2018 to be between 0.88 °C and 1.12 °C, with a central estimate of 1.00 °C, above the pre-industrial average period from 1850–1900. This corresponds to an increase of between 0.28 °C and 0.52 °C, and a central estimate of 0.40 °C above the 1981–2010 long term average of 14.3 °C.

Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the Met Office, said: “2018 will be very warm globally but is unlikely to exceed the recent record, set in 2016.”

The 2018 forecast is based on the key drivers of the global climate, but it doesn’t include unpredictable incidents such as a large volcanic eruption which would cause a temporary cooling. Professor Scaife added: “For example, Bali’s Mount Agung, which has recently experienced modest eruptions, could cause a temporary but significant drop in global temperatures if it undergoes a major eruption in the coming year.”

The Met Office's forecast for the 2017 global mean temperature agrees closely with the latest observations of global temperature so far this year. Data from Jan-Sep 2017 shows the global mean temperature is 1.05 °C above pre-industrial levels.

The forecast for 2018, including the range of uncertainties, again places the coming year amongst the warmest years on record: 16 of the 17 warmest years on record have now occurred since the year 2000.

Dr Doug Smith, Met Office research fellow, said: “For 2018, the global temperature will remain high, but the current La Niña conditions suggest that average temperatures will be around 0.1 degrees lower than we would otherwise expect in 2018.”


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Re: THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Fri 22 Dec 2017, 12:56:30

On the other hand, if a La Niña year coincides with even more record heat days .......
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Re: THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 23 Dec 2017, 12:21:45

Even though it's officially La Nina, we just had the third hottest November on record, globally.

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2666/nove ... on-record/
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Re: THE El Nino / La Nina Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 23 Dec 2017, 12:49:06

I forget; was it el nino or nina that was associated with the "Ridiculously Resilient Ridge," the persistent region of atmospheric high pressure that occurred over the far northeastern Pacific Ocean.[1]
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