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THE EIA Thread pt 3 (merged)

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: EIA's IPM confirms 2005 as peak production

Unread postby newman1979 » Sat 15 Aug 2009, 12:08:33

The discussion is good for all of us. First, Europe and Japan has been on a oil diet for 40 years. The problem is that with all the massive investment in efficiency,high oil taxes, nuclear etc. they still need a huge quantity of imported oil for their societies. If it has taken Europe 40 years to reach this result, when should we start to do what Europe and Japan have done? Growth in oil producing countries some other countries is largely based on subsidizing domestic oil. So we have different parts of the world taking contradicting courses towards oil usage. Cheery picking is a universal sport in this type of environment, which is why I try to rely principally on world data for demand data as flawed as it probably is. Supply is the sum of parts that are easier to discuss on a regional basis.
Another part of this discussion should be "What is the implication if each side of the debate is wrong?" And in this regard, shouldn't a discussion about "minimizing maximum loss" be included under various scenarios.
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Re: EIA's IPM confirms 2005 as peak production

Unread postby kiwichick » Sun 16 Aug 2009, 21:10:56

dude;notice how your graph has "double tops"

looks like only germany had a higher peak than
the early 70's
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Re: EIA's IPM confirms 2005 as peak production

Unread postby kiwichick » Sun 16 Aug 2009, 21:12:52

sorry italy did too
and then very flat
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Re: EIA's IPM confirms 2005 as peak production

Unread postby Pops » Sun 23 Aug 2009, 13:11:22

OK I've split off the discussion of multiple peaks to here,
http://peakoil.com/peak-oil-discussion/ ... 55372.html

Lets try to keep this thread a little more on the line of what next or however newman wants to go.
If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen we must live through all time or die by suicide.
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Re: EIA's IPM confirms 2005 as peak production

Unread postby Pops » Sun 23 Aug 2009, 13:21:46

I tend to think we are still too close to say with any confidence that we are at the top. Especially since the highest price and the highest production month was last year.

But that guess just came straight out of my ear. What I'd like to see is no clear peak, the world just bumping up against the ceiling until we get the hint, and maybe scrape along till the population goes over the top.

Hey, a guy can wish can't he?

I know, wish in one hand and spit in the other and see which fills faster...
If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen we must live through all time or die by suicide.
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Re: EIA Projects World Energy Use to Grow 44%Between 2006 & 2030

Unread postby Graeme » Sun 30 Aug 2009, 16:00:51

Renewable energy market to grow 25% annually through 2030

The alternative energy sector is expected to grow 25% annually and account for almost 70% of the global energy market through 2030.

The sector's current $150bn share of the estimated $800bn worldwide energy infrastructure will rise by then to around $600bn.


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Re: EIA's IPM confirms 2005 as peak production

Unread postby yesplease » Fri 11 Sep 2009, 01:48:41

AirlinePilot wrote:
TheDude wrote: hence my graph of change in oil consumption divided by region, which shows that increase in demand proceeds apace, regardless of changes in individual countries.
This is the bottom line. The only number which matters is overall global demand.
It's at least a number that matters. What matters is per capita oil consumption compared to per capita real GDP. As a whole, per capita real GDP has increased a bit more than per capta oil over the past few decades, and I expect that trend will continue with higher oil prices.
Professor Membrane wrote: Not now son, I'm making ... TOAST!
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Re: THE EIA Thread (merged)

Unread postby Graeme » Sat 29 May 2010, 21:04:46

The New Age Of Natural Gas: New Record High Production In March For The World’s #1 Producer

The Energy Information Administration released new data yesterday showing that natural gas production in the U.S. reached an all-time historical monthly high in March of 2.313 trillion cubic feet, breaking the previous record of 2.28 trillion cubic feet set in March of last year by almost 33 billion cubic feet (see graph).

As I have reported previously, the U.S. is now the world’s largest producer of natural gas, having surpassed Russia’s production last year to become the new “Saudi Arabia of natural gas.” It’s all because of a breakthrough in drilling technology, involving the use of three-dimensional seismic imaging and hydraulic fracturing of shale rock, so that huge amounts of natural gas are being produced in New York, Pennsylvania, Texas, Louisiana and other states. In 2000, shale gas accounted for only about 1% of our natural gas supply, but now about 20% of gas comes from advanced shale drilling, and has helped boost production to record high levels.

The abundance of natural gas in the U.S. was completely unexpected as recently as seven years ago when Alan Greenspan was worried in 2003 that shortages of natural gas would hurt the U.S. economy. We’re in a new age of natural gas, and it’s going to be a real game-changer.


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Re: THE EIA Thread (merged)

Unread postby PeakOiler » Mon 31 May 2010, 09:54:42

Can anyone explain why the EIA doesn't show the US demand or "days of supply" data anymore at this web page: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip_crude.html ?
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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U.S. proved natural gas, crude oil reserves soar - EIA

Unread postby Graeme » Tue 30 Nov 2010, 20:24:14

U.S. proved natural gas, crude oil reserves soar - EIA

U.S. natural gas reserves increased by the most in history last year, and crude reserves also rose, as companies drilled frantically into shale rock formations with new technology, the Energy Information Administration said in an annual report on Tuesday.

U.S. net proved natural gas reserves rose 11 percent, or 28.8 trillion cubic feet (tcf), in 2009 to total 284 tcf, underscoring the dramatic impact that new gas pumped from shale rock formations is having on world energy supply.

Louisiana, whose statewide reserves grew quickest, saw its economically viable gas reserves surge by 77 percent, or 9.2 tcf, led by developments in its Haynesville Shale.

U.S. net proved crude oil reserves rose 9 percent, or 1.8 billion barrels, to 22.3 billion barrels in 2009. Texas saw its proved oil volumes rise most, by 529 million barrels, or 11 percent.

North Dakota, home of the oil-rich Bakken Shale formation, saw its reserves jump by a whopping 83 percent, or 481 million barrels.

"These increases demonstrate the possibility of an expanding role for domestic natural gas and crude oil in meeting both current and projected U.S. energy demands," EIA researchers said in their report.


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Re: U.S. proved natural gas, crude oil reserves soar - EIA

Unread postby americandream » Tue 30 Nov 2010, 20:52:25

In breaking news, Saudi Arabia was declared another state of the US.
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Re: U.S. proved natural gas, crude oil reserves soar - EIA

Unread postby Serial_Worrier » Tue 30 Nov 2010, 20:55:22

So it just postpones the reckoning a few more years. Doom!
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Re: U.S. proved natural gas, crude oil reserves soar - EIA

Unread postby Xenophobe » Tue 30 Nov 2010, 20:57:36

Serial_Worrier wrote:So it just postpones the reckoning a few more years. Doom!


Yeah, the real problem is when those years become decades, decades centuries, etc etc. Lets not forget, we're ALREADY some century past our due date, so whats another one? Or two?
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Re: U.S. proved natural gas, crude oil reserves soar - EIA

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 30 Nov 2010, 21:23:17

All this depends on the exciting new business of "reserves" redefinition. The article is all about tightly-held shale-crap, apparently a new class of "gas" and "oil." As we descend down the post peak cliff we will see all manner of semi-solid materials redefined as "gas." A few years ago it was thermodepolymerization. Next year it might be toe grunge. I wouldn't wash yer socks so fast. They might become valuable in the "New New" Oil Industry of the future.

Don't worry peakers. Doom has not taken a holiday. :twisted:
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Re: U.S. proved natural gas, crude oil reserves soar - EIA

Unread postby Maddog78 » Wed 01 Dec 2010, 09:57:15

Ha, so roccman or whatever his name was should get ready to head to the bunker, AGAIN?
:-D
He must have worn a nice path in and out of that bunker the last two years.
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Re: U.S. proved natural gas, crude oil reserves soar - EIA

Unread postby diemos » Wed 01 Dec 2010, 10:06:07

Graeme wrote:U.S. net proved crude oil reserves rose 9 percent, or 1.8 billion barrels, to 22.3 billion barrels in 2009. Texas saw its proved oil volumes rise most, by 529 million barrels, or 11 percent.


Yaaaaayyy!

But wait ... 8O ... then why is the production rate going down?
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Re: U.S. proved natural gas, crude oil reserves soar - EIA

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 01 Dec 2010, 11:03:22

22 billion barrels and we use 20 million barrels a day!!! Works out to just three years and change. 2014 ought to be a real interesting year any way you look at it.
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Re: U.S. proved natural gas, crude oil reserves soar - EIA

Unread postby ian807 » Wed 01 Dec 2010, 13:37:43

We'll have quite a long period of relatively scarce and expensive oil, but we'll have it.

This is a money problem long before it's a real supply crunch. The effect of depleting conventional oil is to make liquid fuel, fertilizer and chemical feedstock prices rise. That'll continue for a long time, decreasing oil use and suppressing economic activity as higher oil prices work their way down the value chain into all products. We all effectively get poorer. Quite a bit poorer, most likely. Adding unconventional oil to the mix won't change that. Since oil itself is necessary to get more oil, I expect you'll see a lot of unconventional oil suddenly become uneconomical to produce.

I doubt, however, that bunkers will be necessary anytime soon. If they are, it probably won't be directly related to oil supplies.
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Re: U.S. proved natural gas, crude oil reserves soar - EIA

Unread postby Carlhole » Wed 01 Dec 2010, 17:37:26

Serial_Worrier wrote:So it just postpones the reckoning a few more years. Doom!


That's pretty much what's been repeated over and over since the early 1900's.
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Re: U.S. proved natural gas, crude oil reserves soar - EIA

Unread postby Xenophobe » Wed 01 Dec 2010, 19:12:12

vtsnowedin wrote:22 billion barrels and we use 20 million barrels a day!!! Works out to just three years and change. 2014 ought to be a real interesting year any way you look at it.


In 1981, when we were consuming about the same amount of crude as we do today, US reserves were about 29 billion. About 4 years later after we used them all up, we arrived in 1985....and GOSH NAB IT!! We still had 28 billion in reserves. WHAT!! And it turns out...1985 wasn't an all bad year!

OJ went to the Hall of Fame (hah!), MOVE got wiped out in Philly, Rt66 ceased being an official highway, Ramirez got taken off the streets, not all bad, eh?

And so here we are, another quarter century later...and we have 20 billion in reserves? Imagine that! How many new Saudi Arabia's have we discovered since 1985? Must be at least a couple, eh? :lol:
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