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THE EIA Thread pt 3 (merged)

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

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Re: EIA's IPM confirms 2005 as peak production

Unread postby newman1979 » Thu 13 Aug 2009, 20:18:21

2008 had oil at $147 and had every producer selling all they could produce. The result was and is that even with the price sky high and all economic theory on their side, the result was less than 2005.
Maybe you should become a preacher where beliefs trump facts.
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Re: EIA's IPM confirms 2005 as peak production

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 13 Aug 2009, 20:24:47

Cyrus wrote:Oilfinder2 care to step in and try to debate this?

The IEA says last year was the record, and the EIA says it was 2005.

*shrugs*

Call it a tie.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: EIA's IPM confirms 2005 as peak production

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 13 Aug 2009, 20:27:05

dukey wrote:pretty big news.

This from the weekly petroleum status report was also fairly big news ..

Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged about
9.2 million barrels per day, up by 0.5 percent from the same period last year.


especially considering the fact we are in a huge recession right now

That was last week's report. This week the rise was 0%. Or perhaps you haven't paid attention to this thread.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: EIA's IPM confirms 2005 as peak production

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 13 Aug 2009, 20:33:02

I wouldn't worry. We are an inventive people who rise to the occasion and use the God-Given Optimism that has made America a Great Nation, a Nation of Believers, Doers, Actors, and Achievers. Tomorrow the Sun will rise in the East as it always has done. The birds will chirp and the garage will be collected by the good, brave people that make this country the Envy of the World.

I wouldn't worry :). Go out and have a Haagen Dazs. Forget about today until tomorrow. Come Dance With me on the Endless Beach of Technical Innovation in a Bright New Sunshiny day.

Just where are my good friends--Oily, ShortonBrains, Antithinker?
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― Maya Angelou
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Re: EIA's IPM confirms 2005 as peak production

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 13 Aug 2009, 20:36:43

OilFinder2 wrote:
dukey wrote:pretty big news.

This from the weekly petroleum status report was also fairly big news ..

Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged about
9.2 million barrels per day, up by 0.5 percent from the same period last year.


especially considering the fact we are in a huge recession right now

That was last week's report. This week the rise was 0%. Or perhaps you haven't paid attention to this thread.
Ah. There you are. The point here I believe is that oil demand is somewhat inelastic and that in time of economic decline neither the market, nor conservation, nor efficiencies, nor replacements can stem the flow from declining reservoirs.

It's almost as if we are floating in a vast toilet of petroleum with our own hands on the flusher handle. Do we yank? Or do we just enjoy the float?
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
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Re: EIA's IPM confirms 2005 as peak production

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 13 Aug 2009, 20:52:57

pstarr wrote:Ah. There you are. The point here I believe is that oil demand is somewhat inelastic and that in time of economic decline neither the market, nor conservation, nor efficiencies, nor replacements can stem the flow from declining reservoirs.

It's almost as if we are floating in a vast toilet of petroleum with our own hands on the flusher handle. Do we yank? Or do we just enjoy the float?

It looks like you didn't click on the link. As usual.
OilFinder2 wrote:Source

Gasoline product supplied
First week of August 2006 = 9,620 thousand bpd
First week of August 2007 = 9,659 thousand bpd
First week of August 2008 = 9,410 thousand bpd
First week of August 2009 = 9,144 thousand bpd

That's almost a 5% decrease in 4 years.

Some more information you've consistently ignored who-knows-how-many-times in the past couple years:

Image
Image
Image
Source
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: EIA's IPM confirms 2005 as peak production

Unread postby Auntie_Cipation » Thu 13 Aug 2009, 21:19:56

gnm wrote:Oily? Auntie? Where are you when we need you?! :lol:

-G

I'm being lumped with WHO??? :shock: This is the worst news I've gotten all year. *sniff* [smilie=crybaby2.gif] (maybe you meant Anti-Doomer?)

Hey, all we can really say is that 2005 is the date so far, and that as time passes it gets less and less likely that it will be surpassed. I mean, if TPTB threw everything they had left into one final year of "suck it all up RIGHT NOW", then that year might end up as Peak, numerically. Not very likely though.

I think the precise year of Peak is only significant because our human(oid) brains like to draw clean crisp lines and say "YOU ARE HERE." But reality is that from the perspective of the broader moment in time, it's NOW -- regardless of whether that means 2005 or 2010. Even if something came along that pushed the peak back by a decade or more (oh, ya know, something like a severe economic downturn, or an unsustainable-but-temporarily-profitable tar/shale extraction method), it still wouldn't change the essence of the situation.

And the more we try to stave it off by fussing over symptoms, the harder we'll fall. So -- bring it on!
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Re: EIA's IPM confirms 2005 as peak production

Unread postby TheDude » Thu 13 Aug 2009, 21:58:43

OMG OF2, you figured out how to host images finally.

Still picking those cherries though.

Oil consumption percentage changes year to year, by region:

Image

The decline in gasoline demand in the US is partially due to the introduction of ethanol, amounting to something like 1.2 mb/d now; plus good old garden variety demand destruction, due to the price runup and the recessiodepression, which may or may not last forever or have ended last week according to Krugman who really cares.

What was your other data point...YOY, oh right. So since the economy will grow once more now, consumption will increase, and we will be right back where we started from. Or not. "Increaseless Recovery," damn, I'm on a roll.
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Re: EIA's IPM confirms 2005 as peak production

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Thu 13 Aug 2009, 22:47:52

TheDude wrote:What was your other data point...YOY, oh right. So since the economy will grow once more now, consumption will increase, and we will be right back where we started from. Or not. "Increaseless Recovery," damn, I'm on a roll.


PRICELESS! :-D
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Re: EIA's IPM confirms 2005 as peak production

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 13 Aug 2009, 23:03:19

Here ya go TheDude, not just one, but THREE "increaseless recoveries!" 8O

France

Image
Image
Source

Italy

Image
Image
Source

Japan

Image
>>> Big chart of Japanese GDP growth Q12001-Q12008 <<<
Source
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: EIA's IPM confirms 2005 as peak production

Unread postby gnm » Fri 14 Aug 2009, 09:19:51

Auntie_Cipation wrote:
gnm wrote:Oily? Auntie? Where are you when we need you?! :lol:

-G

I'm being lumped with WHO??? :shock: This is the worst news I've gotten all year. *sniff* [smilie=crybaby2.gif] (maybe you meant Anti-Doomer?)


Sorry to confuse things Auntie_Cip, But you are right - I was referring to Auntie-Doomer....

-G

Oh, and I don't think it really matters whether it was 2005 or 2008 or if it will be 2010 - If you have read the Hirsch report you would know that anything less than 5 years of radical preparation (as a nation) is going to create some serious pain. So even if its 2015 we better bust ass....
I Have and will continue to vote against ANY politician who supports the various bailouts. Curse you for selling out our future for status quo now!
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Re: EIA's IPM confirms 2005 as peak production

Unread postby eastbay » Fri 14 Aug 2009, 12:13:52

gnm wrote: So even if its 2015 we better hurry ....


Yes, very true. But it's going to be 2005, and all we've done since then is start energy wars, convert food crops into gasoline, and talk excitedly about $40,000 to $100,000 electric cars.

In other words, we're collectively barking up the wrong trees.
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Re: EIA's IPM confirms 2005 as peak production

Unread postby TheDude » Fri 14 Aug 2009, 13:04:13

Image

Must have been quite a chore to find GDP charts that terminate right as the recession started. Japan's number of vehicle registrations decreased by 2.6%
1997-2007; all three of your examples have extensive MT networks.

Transport in France relies on one of the densest and most efficient networks in the world with 146 km of road and 6.2 km of rail lines per 100 km2. It is built as a web with Paris at its centre.[1] France is currently one of the world leaders in railway technology and is also in the forefront of modern tramway developments.


Image

If anything those downturns on Rembrandt's graphs are indicative of the recession kicking in, instead of proving some point about these countries being independent of the need to consume oil.
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Re: EIA's IPM confirms 2005 as peak production

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 14 Aug 2009, 13:37:29

TheDude, you don't even know what cherry-picking is.

Notice that my charts of oil consumption in Italy, France and Japan began in 2004 and go to the present.

Notice also that my charts of GDP growth in Italy, France and Japan roughly cover the same periods (I couldn't find charts exactly matching the same time periods, but they're close-enough).

In France in 2004-2006, while oil consumption was declining, their GDP was growing.

In Italy from 2004-2007, while oil consumption was declining, their GDP grew during most quarters.

In Japan from 2004-2007, while oil consumption was declining, their GDP grew during most quarters.

Even after the current recession, the economies of all 3 nations is larger than it was in 2004. I can dig up the actual numbers for you if you'd like. In other words:

GDP of all 3 nations > now than in 2004
Oil consumption of all 3 nations < now than in 2004.

Increasing oil consumption is not a prerequisite for economic growth. Really! 8O
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: EIA's IPM confirms 2005 as peak production

Unread postby TheDude » Fri 14 Aug 2009, 20:09:01

OilFinder2 wrote:Increasing oil consumption is not a prerequisite for economic growth. Really! 8O


I'll try one more time: The nations you selected as your examples have vast investments in mass transit, thus have buttressed themselves against increases in the price of crude oil by not having such a great dependency on fossil fuel powered personal transport, which is not the case with other countries who collectively account for more of the gross world economy, hence my graph of change in oil consumption divided by region, which shows that increase in demand proceeds apace, regardless of changes in individual countries.

Hope - and seriously doubt - that helped.

Cherry picking is the act of pointing at individual cases or data that seem to confirm a particular position, while ignoring a significant portion of related cases or data that may contradict that position.
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Re: EIA's IPM confirms 2005 as peak production

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 14 Aug 2009, 20:21:21

TheDude wrote:I'll try one more time: The nations you selected as your examples have vast investments in mass transit, thus have buttressed themselves against increases in the price of crude oil by not having such a great dependency on fossil fuel powered personal transport . . .

Actually, it would be more accurate to say that the countries I listed are crowded (or in the case of France, reasonably crowded) nations with mature economies. Their transit investments are more a function of their crowded conditions and their relative wealth than a deliberate attempt to wean themselves off of oil.

With population growth making more and more nations increasingly crowded, and with more and more nations seeing economic growth, over time you will get more and more nations whose economies mature amid their crowdedness, and when that happens oil consumption will grow less and less - and at some point begin to decline. And yet, the economies of these nations will still grow.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: EIA's IPM confirms 2005 as peak production

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Fri 14 Aug 2009, 21:31:13

TheDude wrote: hence my graph of change in oil consumption divided by region, which shows that increase in demand proceeds apace, regardless of changes in individual countries.


This is the bottom line. The only number which matters is overall global demand.
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Re: EIA's IPM confirms 2005 as peak production

Unread postby thuja » Fri 14 Aug 2009, 23:12:32

Very interesting news Newman...but I'm still going to say we are in a plateau and won't know the true peak for a few years. I am very interested what will happen when thw world economy really revs up again. Already we are seeing signs of this with a huge increase in oil price.

My guess is that within a year or two, we will see astronomical oil prices again (150-200$/barrel)- again leading to severe economic contraction.

My belief is that we can no longer see sustained growth and cheap or even moderate oil prices ever again.
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Re: EIA's IPM confirms 2005 as peak production

Unread postby newman1979 » Sat 15 Aug 2009, 12:08:33

The discussion is good for all of us. First, Europe and Japan has been on a oil diet for 40 years. The problem is that with all the massive investment in efficiency,high oil taxes, nuclear etc. they still need a huge quantity of imported oil for their societies. If it has taken Europe 40 years to reach this result, when should we start to do what Europe and Japan have done? Growth in oil producing countries some other countries is largely based on subsidizing domestic oil. So we have different parts of the world taking contradicting courses towards oil usage. Cheery picking is a universal sport in this type of environment, which is why I try to rely principally on world data for demand data as flawed as it probably is. Supply is the sum of parts that are easier to discuss on a regional basis.
Another part of this discussion should be "What is the implication if each side of the debate is wrong?" And in this regard, shouldn't a discussion about "minimizing maximum loss" be included under various scenarios.
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Re: EIA's IPM confirms 2005 as peak production

Unread postby kiwichick » Sun 16 Aug 2009, 21:10:56

dude;notice how your graph has "double tops"

looks like only germany had a higher peak than
the early 70's
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