THE Economic Collapse Thread (merged)

[ReverseEngineer]

Reviewing as I have been Ancient History for parallels with what we see going on today, one Ancient Civilization collapse I always had trouble understanding and believing now is coming more clear to me as a parable. That would be the Fall Of Babylon and the destruction of the Tower of Babel.

From Wikepedia:

According to the biblical account, Babel was a city that united humanity, all speaking a single language and migrating from the east; it was the home city of the great king Nimrod, and the first city to be built after the Great Flood. The people decided their city should have a tower so immense that it would have "its top in the heavens." However, the Tower of Babel was not built for the worship and praise of God, but was dedicated to the glory of man, with a motive of making a 'name' for the builders "Then they said, 'Come, let us build ourselves a city, and a tower with its top in the heavens, and let us make a name for ourselves; otherwise we shall be scattered abroad upon the face of the whole earth.'" - Genesis 11:4. God seeing what the people were doing, gave each person a different language to confuse them and scattered the people throughout the earth.

Now first off in my old analysis, just how could a Tower falling down instantly render people unable to communicate with each other? This seems impossible if you take it at face value as describing verbal language, but what if you take it to mean a Reserve Currency to which all things are linked in their value?

What happens when the Dollar loses its meaning entirely? The ALL the traders can't talk to each other anymore, it about instantly renders it impossible to communicate in the world of trade.

The first obvious parallel here would be the Crashing Down of the World Trade Center in NYC, a "tower so immense it would have its top in the Heavens". However, the more important tower that is crashing down is the intricately connected system of world markets. Its rapidly becoming apparent that traders cannot talk to each other in a common language, and so international trade is grinding to a halt. Now each country has "a different language to confuse them and scattered the people throughout the earth." We are of course all scatterred, and each individual locale now has to come up with its own monetary language to begin trading internally again. The Confusion here is clearly apparent as well.

Some very interesting tidbits in this story that have some relevance to today's Tower of Babel collapse:

The building of the Tower was meant to bid defiance not only to God, but also to Abraham, who exhorted the builders to reverence. The passage mentions that the builders spoke sharp words against God, not cited in the Bible, saying that once every 1,656 years, heaven tottered so that the water poured down upon the earth, therefore they would support it by columns that there might not be another deluge

If you Google up the collapse of the Roman Empire, it actually occured in 352 AD (2008-1656=352) when the Empire fractured between Constantinius II and Magnentius.

http://www.roman-empire.net/collapse/magnentius.html

Coincidence? Perhaps. However, that is one pretty big coincidence if you ask me. Interesting how the Geopolitics seem to replay themselves on the interval of every 1656 years.

Reverse Engineer

[Micki]

Another parallel; From what I understand the final straw to tip the Roman empire was debasement of money. They mixed up silver coins with other metals and had massive inflation as a result. In the end they couldn't pay their armies any longer.

[Ayame]

Another parallel; From what I understand the final straw to tip the Roman empire was debasement of money. They mixed up silver coins with other metals and had massive inflation as a result. In the end they couldn't pay their armies any longer.

Yes indeed. In the 'Collapse of Complex Socities' there is a detailed analysis of the collapse of the roman empire and the end was not pretty. When the empire first began expanding the roman citizen started out with not having to pay any taxes because of all the booty they were pillaging from conquered nations. However, at the end roman citizens were forced to sell their children in order to pay their taxes. The government was bankrupt through monetary debasement. Most romans openly welcomed the invading barbarians because of the liberation they would bring from the overwhelming taxes of the empire.

[mark]

If you're looking to the bible for history you've got more problems than simply discerning reality.

The so-called 'tower of babel' never got built. A dispute between 3 groups of people who each wanted it built for different reasons eventually ended in conflict. Most of the people were killed in the resulting war. End of babel and much of their race.

As for Rome, you're looking at effects. Debasement of money is an effect, what's the cause? Same today, most of our "problems" are simply effects; no one has ciphered the causes.

[TheDude]

Mmm, different definitions of when the Roman Empire fell can be applied; many would say the shebang proper only ended with the sack of Constantinople in 1453.

Here's a good little page on Roman Taxes, for the curious.

[Delphis]

Good read about the fall of Rome...

http://ancienthistory.about.com/cs/rome ... rome_3.htm

Many corellations between the current situation and that of the Roman's empire. I reallt like the parallel between the Publicani and today's WS bankers. It looks like the same fate awaits them as in Rome, they will get to continue their endevours and have no dispuption in lifestyle while the general populous pay(s) dearly...

Bread and Circus, Bread and Circus...

[Delphis]

Interesting...

"One of the primary catalysts to the deterioration of the economy was the lack of circulating currency in the Western Empire. Two reasons for the lack of funds are wholesale hoarding of bullion by Roman citizens, and the widespread looting of the Roman treasury by the 'barbarians'. These two factors, coupled with the massive trade deficit with Eastern Regions of the Empire served to stifle the growth of wealth in the west."~ The Economic Collapse

Sounds familiar...

[Keith_McClary]

Reviewing as I have been Ancient History for parallels with what we see going on today, one Ancient Civilization collapse I always had trouble understanding and believing now is coming more clear to me as a parable. That would be the Fall Of Babylon and the destruction of the Tower of Babel.

From Wikepedia:

According to the biblical account ...

I hope everyone realizes that Wikepedia "history" is all Bible stories.

There is a lot of information available from modern archeology, but this is totally censored by the Judeao-Christian Fundamentalists who control Wikipedia.

[ReverseEngineer]

I hope everyone realizes that Wikepedia "history" is all Bible stories.

There is a lot of information available from modern archeology, but this is totally censored by the Judeao-Christian Fundamentalists who control Wikipedia.

I'm not sure what passes for Politically Correct reporting on the Tower of Babel and Ancient History of this period here on the board, but here are 2 more websites with information on the subject. So far, I haven't seen a whole lot of contradictory reporting. At the very least, I see no reason to believe the edifice itself did not exist.

http://www.ldolphin.org/babel.html
http://www.omniglot.com/babel/index.htm

Reverse Engineer

[Pops]

Crap, I thought the thread was about economistic speachifying.

Sorry.

[ReverseEngineer]

Crap, I thought the thread was about economistic speachifying.

Sorry.

I put the thread in Geopolitics in order to keep it more general than "economistic speechifying" Actually, I still think we need a World History forum to place this kind of thread in, but the best I could do with the forums available was Geopolitics.

When you look at historical models, you don't focus down on just the economics, you can look at social and spiritual implications as well and perhaps get a better idea how all the pieces fit together in the big puzzle. I tend to think most of the analysts here are too narrow in their thinking, focusing only on the economics and the stock market in some cases, focusing only on oil depletion implications in others, focusing on population and ecological problems in still others. These things all DO tie together of course, and its by looking at historical models you can get some grasp on how they do.

Remember Pops, I am NOT a historian by education, I'm a mathematician and scientist by my education, and by my writing, one would have to put me in the camp of Natural Philosophers. I certainly do write my speeches and sermons though, no denying that one. LOL.

Feel free to write your analysis of these problems in any way you see fit in these threads. You can even speechify if you like I'm just writing the Big Picture here.

See You on the Other Side.

Reverse Engineer

[ReverseEngineer]

Yes indeed. In the 'Collapse of Complex Socities' there is a detailed analysis of the collapse of the roman empire and the end was not pretty. When the empire first began expanding the roman citizen started out with not having to pay any taxes because of all the booty they were pillaging from conquered nations. However, at the end roman citizens were forced to sell their children in order to pay their taxes. The government was bankrupt through monetary debasement. Most romans openly welcomed the invading barbarians because of the liberation they would bring from the overwhelming taxes of the empire.

Assuming you take this model as applicable to what we see today, it brings up the question of the way the actual mechanics of currency debasement will function insofar as our military and social structures are concerned.

Mixing base metals with Silver in Roman coinage would be the equivalent of Ben firing up the digital printing press in our own civilzation. So at some point here if the analogy holds true, the currency won't be sufficient to pay the army. My question to the members here would be just how long they think the military will hold up in unified form as the currency debasement works its way through the various levels of the economy?

In Roman times, I think this took quite some time to happen, certainly at least decades, possibly to a few hundred years depending on when you want to pin down the actual Fall of the Empire. However, the Romans did not have computers, the internet or the instantaneous transmission fo digital wealth either.

How long before a Solider's Paycheck in today's Empire is no longer sufficient to feed the soldier's family, and then no longer sufficient to feed the soldier himself? Clearly Iceland is going down VERY rapidly, I don't think the Juggernaut that is the US goes down that fast, but neither do I think the system holds up decades or longer.

How long does it take for the military to cease to function as a unified force?

Reverse Engineer

[Pops]

Sorry for crapping on your thread RE, now I owe you an actual reply.

I'll take the military question, since the US outspends the rest of the world combined on it's military and since the most basic function of a government is to protect the borders I think it will be a very long time before the military will cease to function.

Not to say we will always be the predominate force, Portugal, Spain, Briton all had their time at the top and eventually overreached. We may be approaching or at our peak as well, as we run out of land to plunder - just as they did.

My guess our military will take either of two courses as the budget shrinks; either less technology (more boots and less bandwidth) or more (fewer boots and more UAVs and joysticks) depending on the mood of the public and the tactics of whoever the enemy.

Who knows, soldiers may someday again be expected to cook their own food and clean their own latrines.

[Taghayee]

just how could a Tower falling down instantly render people unable to communicate with each other?

Maybe its metaphorical. I originally come from a country that had its tower fallen. People speak the same language but understand completely different things hence unable to communicate properly. civil war.

[ReverseEngineer]

Sorry for crapping on your thread RE, now I owe you an actual reply.

I'll take the military question, since the US outspends the rest of the world combined on it's military and since the most basic function of a government is to protect the borders I think it will be a very long time before the military will cease to function.

Not to say we will always be the predominate force, Portugal, Spain, Briton all had their time at the top and eventually overreached. We may be approaching or at our peak as well, as we run out of land to plunder - just as they did.

My guess our military will take either of two courses as the budget shrinks; either less technology (more boots and less bandwidth) or more (fewer boots and more UAVs and joysticks) depending on the mood of the public and the tactics of whoever the enemy.

Who knows, soldiers may someday again be expected to cook their own food and clean their own latrines.

Apology accepted, no hard feelings

Agreed, the US by far outspends the rest of the world on the military infrastructure, and I would certainly postulate at the moment has by far the best military out there in training and equipment. Same could be said of Rome of course.

Also, I would consider it likely that as the economy spins downward and we get further problems related to the society basically coming apart at the seams that still more of the scarce resources will be thrown at the military to try to keep it together.

The problem I see besides currency debasement is an absolute numbers problem. We have X number of Professional soldiers, a good part of that crew currently deployed in what have to be considered losing theatres of war in Iraq and Afghanistan. Very high price to project out that much military force that far.

As TPTB perceive more and more local problems, they seek to ignore Posse Comitas and deploy soldiers here on the home turf, but unless they conscript up and train in a mighty big hurry, they are short numbers even to resolve potential rioting in a city like Atlanta, much less handle multiple problems in multiple cities.

Any newby soldiers they do conscript up and hand Rifles to are not the professionally Brainwashed soldiers they might need to fire willy nilly on a crowd of protesters. About guaranteed these units are not well logistically supplied also, if what happenned to the National Guard units around Houston after Ike hit is any indicator.

With tax receipts falling like a stone, with the Federal Government now placed in the position of not only bailing out private banks but also STATES that don't have money for their budgets, for just how long can Ben just print up fiat money to pay for more soldiers to keep order here?

I fail to see how even the best trained and best equipped military to ever walk the face of the earth holds together once the results of the currency debasement really take hold. How long does that process TAKE?

Best case scenario, I think MAYBE 2-3 years? Just a guess though. I'm wondering if anyone could try an analysis of the military economics relative to the projected tax receipts and the effects of non-stop printing of fiat money? You would have to have access to more numbers than I know where to find on the net, if they are available at all. However some here seem to have a real fine ability to dig up these sort of numbers.

Reverse Engineer

[Pops]

Boy, we are apart by a large measure, I'm thinking 20-30 years would be pretty disastrous if we are talking about basically the dissolution of the government which the disbanding of the military would certainly be the last straw.

Posse Comitas is something I know lots worry about as do I, but I think whoever is elected in a couple weeks as POTUS will have a much different take than the current one.

Not to say bad things haven't happened in the past and I understand today's soldiers are much more willing to shoot AT enemies reflexively than in the past (25% in WWII compared to 90%+ today) but I think the Officer Corp is much less willing to follow those types of orders than the civilian leadership is to give them, at least the leaders in charge today.


I think the economics of empire destruction at least in a military vein are less valid in the case of the US than your first theory of global trade as the "common language" but I know even less about economics than I do of things military.

[ReverseEngineer]

Boy, we are apart by a large measure

Yes, I have noticed that your posts are a Ray of Sunshine in the otherwise Overcast weather patterns here on Peak Oil. LOL. Your relentless optimism never ceases to astound me, no matter how much bad news gets reported here. I do respect your position however, it must be darn difficult to be the Voice of Hope in the cacophony of Doomsayers.

Anyhow, I might be a little quick in the estimation of timespan for the military to fracture, however I just find it hard to imagine just how a lot of Worthless Paper will work to keep the Pentagon flush here, especially when so much of the WP is currently being flushed down the toilet to keep the Bankers flush and enjoying weekend retreats Hunting on the English Countryside.

If the monetary system does entirely crash, its the last domino in the Cascade Failure. The military will almost immediately dissolve into an internal struggle for power, and your next Leader might very well be some unknown General or even Lieutenant who is sufficiently more ruthless than his counterparts to Carpe Diem at the opportune moment.

In such a scenario, you can about guarantee the entire current Ruling Class and their families will be wiped off the face of the Earth in a similar fashion to the Romanoffs and Princess Anastasia. The Rockefellers will be more full of holes than Swiss Cheese in a hailstorm.

A major problem for the Ruling class is when you put a lot of really Big Guns in the hands of soldiers and then don't have money to pay them. Loyalty only goes as far as your dollar will buy it.

Reverse Engineer

[Pops]

I do respect your position however, it must be darn difficult to be the Voice of Hope in the cacophony of Doomsayers.

I also respect those all along the doomscale as long as they put their actions where their tagline is.

Those who seem to have actually made the biggest shift from the "average" lifestyle, regardless of their specific strategy, seem to be less prone to panic attacks and endless speculation on The End. From Mr. Bill in Cypress/BC and Thuja in Portland to Shanny in OK/TX and Spring Creek in Canada and Ludi in TX to oowolf in Idaho and all the others who have a plan and work it.

Don't forget, I am The original doomer on the site and have jumped at a few shadows myself. But wasn't it Napoleon Hill that said: "What you think about you do."?

I just choose to concentrate on the things I can actually do something about.

Anyway, I'm derailing your thread again so I'll Shut My Trap!

[pablonite]

Yeah, reviewing ancient history for parallels to today is an interesting thing. I just started the portable Gibbon - The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, its only 600+ pages!

The main problem with reading some "history" is that it seems to be rewritten everyday.

What I find most interesting is what gets left out and why. Here is an example of what I mean, and I am not pushing her book, it is just a convienient summary of pivotal American history mysteriously "missing" from our collective conscience today! Now that is power!

PUTTING THE “FEDERAL” BACK IN THE FEDERAL RESERVE

And if anyone knows anyone who may be facing foreclosure now or in the near future I found one of her blogs to be curious..

Standing up to the banks

[ReverseEngineer]

I just choose to concentrate on the things I can actually do something about.

I gather then Alaska doesn't make the grade here with Portugal and Cypress?

In any event, I also concentrate on things I can do something about. What I do is write about them The thing I am DOING is searching for the truth. You cannot find the truth if you don't seek it out and analyze what you see. It is very limiting to only concern yourself with what directly surrounds you and what you can physically touch. I choose not to do that, but rather to think about as many things as I can in as much detail as I can muster up.

Then I write about it and drive everybody bonkers! LOL.

Reverse Engineer