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THE Earthquake Thread Pt 2 (merged)

Re: High CO levels presage CA 'Big One'?

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 29 Feb 2016, 12:30:00

That is true D, the evacuation would be a devilish task. Yes to the fact that they would wait to unmistakable signs of the Big One. In which case it would probably be too late for many. I guess a Plan was never really developed for this scenario even though scientists have been saying it is not a question of if but when.
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Re: High CO levels presage CA 'Big One'?

Unread postby GHung » Mon 29 Feb 2016, 12:30:34

Yikes!

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Re: High CO levels presage CA 'Big One'?

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 29 Feb 2016, 12:33:13

So it has gone from 27,000 to 40,000. Holy cow something is happening.
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Re: High CO levels presage CA 'Big One'?

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 29 Feb 2016, 12:34:18

Thanks for posting that image, Ghung.

Here's a different perspective from a commentator on the ground at rs:

There was a conspicuous abundance of fires all over the valley, many of which were creating towering black plumes of smoke visible for many miles. Really nasty black plumes in some cases. A couple of the fires looked like a refinery or something way off over the horizon.

For those unfamiliar with the somewhat disturbed rhythms of Sacramento Valley agriculture, whenever an orchard loses productivity, they often just cut down the trees, bulldoze the whole thing into a mountainous pile, wait for the right stretch of dry weather (but not too dry!) followed by some nice light breeze and uplift to get most of the smoke aloft, and light er’ up. I would assume that accelerants are usually involved. There’s an unusual amount of orchard retirement tied up in the drought (younger trees take less water and stressed older trees are less productive) and we just had a dry month


Hard to believe that a few orchard fires could produce this kind of effect, but it may be part of what's going on, I suppose.
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Re: High CO levels presage CA 'Big One'?

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 29 Feb 2016, 12:42:47

Keep us posted, dude. And stay safe!
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Re: High CO levels presage CA 'Big One'?

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 29 Feb 2016, 12:43:44

http://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/02/27 ... 808,37.479
This is a link to real time measurements of CO in that area.
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Re: High CO levels presage CA 'Big One'?

Unread postby diemos » Mon 29 Feb 2016, 13:15:13

onlooker wrote:I guess a Plan was never really developed for this scenario even though scientists have been saying it is not a question of if but when.


Of course there's a plan. Here it is:

"Ride it out and then pick up the pieces afterwards."

Okay ... I never said it was a GOOD plan.
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Re: High CO levels presage CA 'Big One'?

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 29 Feb 2016, 13:20:00

diemos wrote:
onlooker wrote:I guess a Plan was never really developed for this scenario even though scientists have been saying it is not a question of if but when.


Of course there's a plan. Here it is:

"Ride it out and then pick up the pieces afterwards."

Okay ... I never said it was a GOOD plan.

Yep I think that was the plan, have we here become macabre jokesters. :twisted:
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Re: High CO levels presage CA 'Big One'?

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 29 Feb 2016, 13:33:50

A commenter here (fishoutofwater at 7:49:48) says that's it's just the result of an inversion in the area holding all the human-caused CO close to the earth, rather than letting it dissipate as it otherwise would, plus some influence from some fires in Canada.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/2/29 ... West-Coast

There is a large surface high pressure located over the west coast. The air is almost stagnant. Smog, which is rich in CO and pollution from fires, which is rich in CO, have built up over the west coast and western Canada.


Put that together with the info on orchard burning, and we may be getting toward a non-geological explanation for this sudden spike.
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Re: High CO levels presage CA 'Big One'?

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 29 Feb 2016, 13:37:10

diemos wrote:
onlooker wrote:I guess a Plan was never really developed for this scenario even though scientists have been saying it is not a question of if but when.


Of course there's a plan. Here it is:

"Ride it out and then pick up the pieces afterwards."

Okay ... I never said it was a GOOD plan.


Its actually not the worst plan ever, provided they use the knowledge of an eventual major quake to build their infrastructure and housing accordingly.

It would be wonderful if this turns out to be a method to predict quakes and the strength of the quake in advance with a high degree of accuracy. Of course to do so requires high technology and a lot of skill so it would be hard to extend to the world as a whole, but every little bit can help.
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Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: High CO levels presage CA 'Big One'?

Unread postby JV153 » Mon 29 Feb 2016, 14:31:35

I can't find any report from a credible site - this seems to be a hoax - none of the major news sources are reporting it, nor do I find anything on it elsewhere, e.g US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
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Re: High CO levels presage CA 'Big One'?

Unread postby Revi » Mon 29 Feb 2016, 15:05:29

Is the monitor anywhere near that huge methane leak?
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Re: High CO levels presage CA 'Big One'?

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 29 Feb 2016, 15:06:12

I'm not sure 'hoax' is the right word, since that implies some kind of carefully planned, intentional attempt to fool lots of people.

A major climate tool (nullschool) did show these very highly elevated levels on their site. If that was false, it was probably due to some glitch in their program.

If people have some other source that shows different levels of these gasses in these areas at these times, it would be very helpful to bring this evidence forward.
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Re: High CO levels presage CA 'Big One'?

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 29 Feb 2016, 15:08:09

Rev, it is much more widespread than that point source. And in any case, iirc, methane does not usually develop into CO under natural atmospheric conditions.
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Re: High CO levels presage CA 'Big One'?

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 29 Feb 2016, 15:09:40

This from Bruce at neven's site on the possible contributions from planned burning of dead orchards:

Agriculture burns are regulated by local fire departments here in Calif. In order to do a burn you need first sign up and pay for a burn permit, have your brush pile inspected by the local fire dept. and then wait for a burn day. Everybody starts their fires at the same time because there are only some days when the fire dept. allows burns to be started. I don't know about the central valley but here in S.B. County where I live last week was the first approved burn day allowed in the last several months.
I think they( local fire dept.) wait for enough rain and moisture to deter chances of controlled burns
starting wildfires. I don't really know if other counties also allowed agriculture burns last week or if somehow multiple fire districts all allowed fires on the same day but it is a possibility.


pstarr, do you have any knowledge about these policies to confirm or correct the above claims?
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Re: High CO levels presage CA 'Big One'?

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 29 Feb 2016, 15:36:22

Thanks for the ground truthing, pstarr. Please do tell that story some time.

So this time it may be a combination of extra burning and an inversion.

But there is at least one other study that does connect increased CO concentrations and earthquakes (thanks to mike at rs's blog for this link): http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.n ... 3-2013.pdf

Anomalies of total column CO and O3 associated with great earthquakes in recent years
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Re: High CO levels presage CA 'Big One'?

Unread postby diemos » Mon 29 Feb 2016, 17:14:33

JV153 wrote:I can't find any report from a credible site - this seems to be a hoax - none of the major news sources are reporting it, nor do I find anything on it elsewhere, e.g US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).


There is one paper, from one Indian researcher making this connection. He has apparently been inundated with inquiries from the doomerista set and is nixing any California earthquake prediction.
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