THE Earth in 2100 Thread (merged)

[IslandCrow]

If the economy tanks quickly and the minimal safety nets we currently have rip apart, people will rapidly get violent in some places, and hungry in even more places. Economic collapse caused population decline in Russia. Why are we immune?

How people react will be a key factor. Unfortunately I think that violent reactions will be more common than they need to be. The problem with a lot of the violence is that it is directed against the infrastructure that would be needed to smooth the decent to a lower level of energy use.

Against this is a number of years of having lived in poor countries as an adult, and observed how people manage with much much less than we are using here in the west. Because of this I have a firm conviction that in the West we could live on a much lower level of energy before having a major die off...the wild card is whether people will react violently to dropping living standards (and so make the problem even worse).

In the long term we will see populations drop...but I see this drop starting later than the model predicted

I suppose that in viewing the WEAP model, I would see that the correlation between energy use and population is a lagging model (I mean by that: energy change effects population change x years later). Because of the constant run up in energy availability and population growth over a number of years it looks as if there is an immediate (time wise) correlation. I do not have a good feel for just how long the time lag would be, but my 'gut feeling' (partly from looking at places like Zimbabwe which still has a growing population) is that the lag might be in the order of 5 - 10 years. Because of the time taken for a baby to reach reproductive rate the effect of the time lag could be even greater than the time I have just given. According to the model Russia's population should be rising now!

A long defense of my position but it really is a critic of just one smallish detail in the WEAP model - So far I think that the model gives a good indication of the overall shape of things to come. It seems to me to be a useful model.

[M_B_S]

Population Thesis

Paul Chefurka made an "interesting" U - turn

His population model is rubbish

Read his statement here:

http://www.paulchefurka.ca/Rubbish.html

[BobWallace]

Let's throw in a bit more...

Birth rates worldwide dropped from 2.65 in 2000 to 2.55 in 2006.

Replacement birth rate is 2.33.

Unless 2000 and 2006 are not representative of what is happening we're moving fairly quickly toward zero population growth. And not because gas tanks are empty.

And, as we've seen in so many 'developed' countries, once people get control over their reproductive processes and urbanized they keep moving toward 'one child per couple'.

[KevO]

Scientists From Around the Globe Join ABC News in a Forum on Surviving the Century By SARAH NAMIAS, June 12, 2008:
Are we living in the last century of our civilization? Is it possible that all of our technology, knowledge and wealth cannot save us from ourselves? Could our society actually be heading towards collapse? According to many of the world's top scientists, the answer is yes, unless we take action now.

This September, in Earth 2100, a dramatic ABC News 2-hour broadcast, the greatest minds across the globe will join together in a countdown to the year 2100 to tell us what we must do to survive the next century … And what may happen if we don't.

The time to act is now, "We really have less than a decade to start getting this right. If we're still dragging our feet in 2015 I think it really becomes at that point almost impossible for the world to avert a degree of climate change that we simply will not be able to manage without intolerable cost and consequences."

In order to avoid this chilling future, we have to first imagine it. In an unprecedented Internet event, ABC is inviting people from around the world to bring the future to life

Video and more text here

[DomusAlbion]

Oh My! James Howard Kunstler on ABC News.

The end truly is at hand.

[benzoil]

Oh My! James Howard Kunstler on ABC News.

The end truly is at hand.

He survived the Colbert Report without using the word "clusterF**k* so maybe he can make it through an ABC Special, too.

I dislike the "End of the World" reference though. There's a big cognitive difference between the End of the World and the End of Western Civilization. For instance, the End of Roman Civilization did not mean the End of the World. I think it makes people act differently. The latter implies that there are no more tomorrows. The former means that there are more tomorrows (so do whatever youwant), but you might not be there to see them (unless you prepare).

As the PO meme makes its way into the mainstream we should expect some serious morphing of what it means from what we all think it means. For one thing, we in the PO community aren't 100% settled on it yet. For another, "we" won't be defining the debate anymore. It will be the idiot pundits, politicians and neighbors that we've tried in vain to warn already. Who knows what'll happen.

[mos6507]

Any time you permanently rip someone out of the comfort of their daily life it is going to feel like the end of the world in the sense that there will be so much grief over the loss of lifestyle that they will feel their life is over.

[benzoil]

Any time you permanently rip someone out of the comfort of their daily life it is going to feel like the end of the world in the sense that there will be so much grief over the loss of lifestyle that they will feel their life is over.

I know what you mean, but it's not truly terminal. People have come to feel that they have a right to economic class security. They don't, of course, and it will feel like a death of a thousand cuts for most people. Still, the last thing we need is people making short term decisions based on the world ending. Making short term decisions as if there were no long term consequences is what got us into this mess in the first place.

[Novus]

If they are not going to talk about Peak Oil then the whole broadcast is a waste of time. Climate change is nothing more than whole lot of hot air and distraction. They mention 2015 but I think by then we could already be collapsed. For most people this will be the end of the world. The sun will still rise in the year 2015 but you just won't be there to see it unless you are a hardcore survivalist and on top of that get lucky.

[patience]

Without oil, our current civilization dies back to some pre-oil level. Without a livable planet, we as a species become extinct. I guess it depends on how badly we can hose it up before we run out of stuff to burn.

[Denny]

Without oil, our current civilization dies back to some pre-oil level.

The coal era was not really all that bad! Maybe not so good for breathing, but most people survived the smog.

[Novus]

I am not convinced global warming is entirely a bad thing. We are cooler today than the world was during the medieval warm period when the Arctic Ocean was ice free and England was a major wine producer.

[biofuel13]

The time to act is now

The time to act was 30 years ago. Too little, too late.

+1 Way to little, way too late.

[TheDude]

If they are not going to talk about Peak Oil then the whole broadcast is a waste of time.

Didn't you watch the trailer?



For the US in 2015:

Increasing international demand for oil and industrial metals is creating record high prices and worldwide shortages.

[KevO]

I am not convinced global warming is entirely a bad thing.

you will be!

[freddyseven]

I fail to undcerstand the significance of global warming.

I would rather have it a bit warmer when I am living in the woods, when oil run supply shuts down, sporadically, lines form and the wars start,it will not matter wether it is warm or cold, but leaving a ruined city on foot is better in warm weather than snow.

If we put in Kyoto and 55 MPH our oil use will drop 1-3 %

at peak powerdown post holocost the oil decrease in usage will be > 95%
The globe will cool for the next 200 years from nuclear winter. no big deal this global warming, it is a red herring.

[Homesteader]

I fail to undcerstand the significance of global warming..

So how soon after birth were you dropped on your head?

[mercurygirl]

I think the "global warming" scare is simplistic propaganda. It is clear that we are harming our environment, but the biosphere is complex and we don't entirely understand it. We do know that there are feedback mechanisms and that equilibrium is sought. It's possible that the warming caused by our race to overshoot could lead to a correction in the form of an ice age. That would be something to worry about. It is also possible that the cycles of the solar system determine our general temperature.

[zzzpeakoil]

Global Warming is a scare tactic used by US to prevent China and India from enjoying a rich lifestyle that US people are enjoying.

All experts agree that there is no global warming. Rather the next terrible ice age is right around the corner.