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The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby GoghGoner » Wed 23 Nov 2016, 14:04:26

Exceptional droughts are pretty much ignored these days. I guess when records are broken again and again, we all get a little bored.

Here is the latest from the US drought monitor Southeast summary:

As reported by the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC), hundreds (at least 212) new fires have started in the Southeast, with 30 of them classified as large wildfires (100 acres or more), and burn bans were widespread across the region. Streams were at record and near-record low levels. Severe agricultural impacts (stock ponds drying up, winter feed being used to keep cattle alive since fall started) were widespread across the South and Southeast.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 23 Nov 2016, 15:43:17

GoghGoner wrote:Exceptional droughts are pretty much ignored these days. I guess when records are broken again and again, we all get a little bored.

We do not ignore exceptional droughts here at po.com. We've beaten each one into submission with our hot moist tepid air lol
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 25 Nov 2016, 01:18:19

Thanks for reminding us, GG. That angry red blob (D4) over the southern Appalachians is now about the size of the one in California, and the D3 extreme drought area is much larger.

The only states I can see that are completely free of any drought or drying right now are MI, WI, MN, and Washington state.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 25 Nov 2016, 08:36:53

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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 27 Nov 2016, 13:44:09

http://gcaptain.com/towing-giant-bags-w ... t-drought/

(Bloomberg) Auke Piek, a 44-year-old Dutch engineer, says he has a solution to the Caribbean’s worst drought in half a century — and it lies hundreds of miles away in the tropical rain forests of Suriname.

This week, a boat will tow a giant bag made from PVC-coated fabric with enough water to fill an Olympic-size swimming pool from Suriname to drought-stricken Barbados and Curacao. It will be a test run for a technology Piek said he wants to expand to other Caribbean islands, and eventually, as far afield as the Middle East.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby GoghGoner » Tue 29 Nov 2016, 12:55:43

Well, I posted last week on the record setting droughts in the Southeast and now we have America's town burning down.

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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 29 Nov 2016, 15:52:36

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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 29 Nov 2016, 16:01:25

It's not as if 'The Drought' is one big thing, like you fankids imply. 'The Drought' does not have Sub-Droughts that work in conjunction, 'The Drought' is not a monolithic event that strategize its various fierce regional campaign against humanity. :shock: :razz:

The Rio De Janeiro Drought is done. The California Drought is almost history. Same with the Redneck Drought. It'll go away and life will go on.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 29 Nov 2016, 16:23:23

I think the salient point is the increasing frequency and severity of drought. Which, if I am correct, is not to be denied.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 29 Nov 2016, 16:28:46

Newfie wrote:I think the salient point is the increasing frequency and severity of drought. Which, if I am correct, is not to be denied.

I sure don't deny an increasing chaotic weather regime. I only question its overall severity and consequences.

Barring a runaway event (which IPCC-5 and myself find highly unlikely) these hurricanes, droughts, floods etc are of little importance, nothing compared to runaway human population growth and resource depletion. And will most certainly be mitigated by a homeostatic Earth Mother and peak oil.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby GHung » Tue 29 Nov 2016, 16:57:24

pstarr wrote:
Newfie wrote:I think the salient point is the increasing frequency and severity of drought. Which, if I am correct, is not to be denied.

I sure don't deny an increasing chaotic weather regime. I only question its overall severity and consequences.

Barring a runaway event (which IPCC-5 and myself find highly unlikely) these hurricanes, droughts, floods etc are of little importance, nothing compared to runaway human population growth and resource depletion. And will most certainly be mitigated by a homeostatic Earth Mother and peak oil.


Redneck drought? What's that?
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 29 Nov 2016, 16:59:35

Isn't the current killa' drought hysteria in the American Southeast?
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 29 Nov 2016, 17:21:02

I think the salient point is the increasing frequency and severity of drought. Which, if I am correct, is not to be denied.


this is from the IPCC SREX report of 2012 on extreme events:

There is not enough evidence at present to suggest high confidence in observed trends in dryness due to lack of direct observations, some geographical inconsistencies in the trends, and some dependencies of inferred trends on the index choice. There is medium confidence that since the 1950s some regions of the world have experienced more intense and longer droughts (e.g., southern Europe, west Africa) but also opposite trends exist in other regions (e.g., central North America, northwestern Australia).


the US data for the following plot can be found at NOAA under their drought discussion, the Canadian data is from Environment Canada. Not much of a recognizable trend here.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby GHung » Tue 29 Nov 2016, 17:21:34

pstarr wrote:Isn't the current killa' drought hysteria in the American Southeast?


Oh,, I figured you were talking about N. California. Sorry. I've been all over the world and I've never met a greater assemblage of classless white trash utterly devoid of anything that could be considered as culture or character as I did when I lived in N. California and the Pacific Northwest. They don't even have anything that could be called an accent. I figured that must be it. The most bland fucking group of people I've ever known; like living among plain stale oatmeal. Even their music is grungy depression-infused waste, for the most part. It's no wonder they have to grow good weed and eat mushrooms; hoping to develop something like a personality.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 29 Nov 2016, 17:26:15

Yeah, excess mary jane does deaden the senses. But good for business. If so, why would the Republicans hate it so much? Sounds like them :razz: :twisted: 8)
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby GoghGoner » Wed 30 Nov 2016, 08:09:35

pstarr wrote:
Newfie wrote:I think the salient point is the increasing frequency and severity of drought. Which, if I am correct, is not to be denied.

I sure don't deny an increasing chaotic weather regime. I only question its overall severity and consequences.

Barring a runaway event (which IPCC-5 and myself find highly unlikely) these hurricanes, droughts, floods etc are of little importance, nothing compared to runaway human population growth and resource depletion. And will most certainly be mitigated by a homeostatic Earth Mother and peak oil.


When it is the cornfields burning up, I guess you will see it a bit differently. Record-setting droughts and floods are wreaking havoc now and will only get worse as the Arctic warms. It has been obvious to me since 2010 what we are up against after I personally had to deal with consequences of a slowing jet stream fighting both historically significant droughts and floods while starting a veggie farm. I gave up.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 30 Nov 2016, 08:16:34

Well Pstarr gets resource depletion and over population.

While I don't quite understand the obsession of arguing endlessly climates change I do get the point that he thinks other factors will take us out first.

He may be right. I suspect that, as indicated in LTG, once one indicator breaks bad the will all follow shortly ( decades.) That will make identifying the causal event difficult, as if it would matter.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby GoghGoner » Wed 30 Nov 2016, 10:03:15

Yeah, newfie, I think along those lines, too. Everything is interconnected: climate, resources, and finance.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 01 Dec 2016, 08:37:17

With Temperatures Hitting 1.2 C Hotter than Pre-Industrial, Drought Now Spans the Globe

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/11/30/ ... the-globe/
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby vox_mundi » Tue 20 Dec 2016, 13:17:13

Dust Bowl would devastate today's crops, study finds

Image

The study, published Dec. 12 in Nature Plants, simulated the effect of extreme weather from the Dust Bowl era on today's maize, soy and wheat crops. Authors Michael Glotter and Joshua Elliott of the Center for Robust Decision Making on Climate and Energy Policy at the Computation Institute, examined whether modern agricultural innovations would protect against history repeating itself under similar conditions.

When the researchers simulated the effects of the 1936 drought upon today's agriculture, they observed roughly 40 percent losses in maize and soy yield, while wheat crops declined by 30 percent. The harm would be 50 percent worse than the 2012 drought, which caused nearly $100 billion of damage to the U.S. economy.

The forecast grew even more dire when the researchers looked at the effect of elevated temperatures on U.S. crop yields. An increase of four degrees above today's average temperatures—a possible scenario by the mid-21st century—doubled the effect of a 1936-level drought, reducing crop yields by as much as 80 percent. Even under non-drought years with normal precipitation, the hotter weather produces declines in crop yield as severe as those experienced during the Dust Bowl.

"By mid-century even a normal year in precipitation could be as bad as what we saw in 1936," Elliott said. "And a year with even a 10 to 20 percent loss of precipitation becomes extraordinarily damaging."
“Technology has evolved to make yields as high as possible in normal years,” said Glotter. “But as extreme events become more frequent and severe, we may have to reframe how we breed crops and select for variance and resilience, not just for average yield.”

"We expected to find the system much more resilient because 30 percent of production is now irrigated in the United States, and because we've abandoned corn production in more severely drought-stricken places such as Oklahoma and west Texas," said Elliott, a fellow and research scientist at the center and the Computation Institute. "But we found the opposite: The system was just as sensitive to drought and heat as it was in the 1930s."
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