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The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 30 May 2016, 23:25:34

Glad to hear you share my low estimation of the short fingered imp.

Rest well, sweet p.

We resume on the morrow! :-D
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 31 May 2016, 00:45:24

I share your disgust with the perk-lipped douche.

But more on topic: you know I never denied the fact of anthropogenic global warming. I just don't believe the chance of a sudden and catastrophic runaway event is in the cards. For several reasons: one) IPCC, two) peak oil, and 3) natural mitigating negative feedback loops ie nutrient loading (C, P and N) of the biosphere.

This doesn't mean I expect no pain. Millions are/will die but that is nothing compared to the suffering and death that will soon befall humanity as our oil-dependent infrastructure and world economies fail.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby jedrider » Tue 31 May 2016, 11:30:57

Good article on Lake Mead and how Arizona Nevada and California will deal with it:

http://www.vox.com/2016/5/23/11736340/l ... -southwest

They are lifting water restrictions in Northern California, but I am wondering how wise that is?
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 31 May 2016, 13:45:54

"I never denied the fact of anthropogenic global warming"

Glad to hear it. My my, we're agreeing on all sorts of things, today! :)

It would be nice to think that one major problem (PO) would solve another. And I know other smart people that also think along your lines. But they also don't tend to bother about learning the minutia of GW, and, as they day, the devil is indeed in the details.

And yes, there will be plenty of pain and death from all of the above. As we spiral down, I expect things to get so chaotic, that probably no one will be able to ever figure out exactly what all the prime causes where, much less what exactly was the precise chain of events that lead up the crash (or series of crashes).

One might say that this is one of the 'privileges' we can now still enjoy--the privilege to speculate about and debate exactly what set of conditions are most quickly and most utterly going to obliterate us.

We've go to 'enjoy' that 'privilege' while we may. :)
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby jedrider » Tue 31 May 2016, 14:40:51

pstarr wrote:I just don't believe the chance of a sudden and catastrophic runaway event is in the cards. For several reasons: one) IPCC, two) peak oil, and 3) natural mitigating negative feedback loops ie nutrient loading (C, P and N) of the biosphere.


Clearly, you are an OPTIMIST.

Trump is interesting in that he ONLY tells people what they want to hear. "Who are you going to believe? Me or your LYING eyes?"

This world is so FANTASTIC. I attribute it to chance and mathematics. I studied engineering amid talk of Murphy's Law. I still believe in it. It is the hidden statistics that say we are 'screwed'.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 07 Jun 2016, 22:09:20

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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 07 Jun 2016, 22:16:08

jedrider wrote:
pstarr wrote:I just don't believe the chance of a sudden and catastrophic runaway event is in the cards. For several reasons: one) IPCC, two) peak oil, and 3) natural mitigating negative feedback loops ie nutrient loading (C, P and N) of the biosphere.


Clearly, you are an OPTIMIST.

No. No. No. ennui says I am a horrible doomer trying to ruin his paradigm. You should be ashamed :-x
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 11 Jun 2016, 11:41:10

It has been a difficult summer for India.

Drought and a searing heat wave have affected an astonishing 330 million people across the country

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-36339524

(Thanks to redskylite at rs's blog for this)
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 11 Jun 2016, 15:27:12

Thailand's Drought Struggle
Many parts of Thailand are in the grip of one of the worst droughts in decades.


http://thediplomat.com/2016/06/thailand ... -struggle/
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 14 Jun 2016, 22:12:15

http://wlfi.com/2016/06/14/indiana-clim ... is-summer/

Indiana Climate Office: Drought possible this summer
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby vox_mundi » Sat 18 Jun 2016, 10:06:41

Weather Watchers on the Lookout for Flash Drought

Temperature and precipitation conditions in mid-June across the primary crop regions in the United States look similar to the widespread drought year of 2012 when, at the time, there also was little or no concern about drought, a climatologist said Thursday.

Brian Fuchs, climatologist at the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, said as temperatures continue to rise heading into the summer months, climatologists are watching closely for signs of flash drought — often brought on by a drop in precipitation and increased temperatures and winds.

It looks eerily similar to what we saw in 2012 when there was no sign of drought,” Fuchs said. “Right now, we’re not anticipating another 2012.”

Most of the Corn Belt and upper Midwest region have seen temperatures anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit above normal in the past 30 days. Some 100-degree temperatures hit the region staring last week in parts of Nebraska and the Dakotas.

High temperatures in May in areas of the Dakotas and Montana and other northern states were in the all-time top 10, Fuchs said. Temps across the rest of the Corn Belt region were in the top 20 all-time.

... “Coupled with the higher temperatures, some areas are starting to stand out” in terms of drought developing, he said. That includes southeastern Kansas and parts of Missouri, Indiana and Illinois.

With precipitation departures in parts of Missouri from 6 inches to 9 inches below normal, along with arriving summer heat, he said climatologists will be keeping close watch on the state.

Temperatures for remainder of 2016 are not encouraging, he said, as the outlook is for most areas of the country to see above-average temps of 2 to 5 degrees. Areas of the upper Midwest, including the Dakotas, Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota, are “pushing for well above normal so far,” Fuchs said.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 18 Jun 2016, 15:42:28

Yeah, that could be a bit of a...problem. More here: http://www.agweb.com/article/corn-belt- ... mmer-blmg/
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 20 Jun 2016, 08:28:48

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 165159.htm

Climate change, not population growth, plays the main role in predicting extreme droughts
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 29 Jun 2016, 14:08:39

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/06/g ... 44626.html

Guatemala drought leaves hundreds of thousands hungry
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 03 Nov 2016, 19:18:15

Just to point out, there were killer droughts on Somalia, India, Pakistan, and less lethal but still serious droughts Japan and a number of other places around the world this year. (I'm not going to supply all the links now...just type in the country name and add 'drought' and you'll get plenty of info.)

Really, there's just too much catastrophic news to keep up.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 03 Nov 2016, 19:26:42

dohboi wrote:Just to point out, there were killer droughts on Somalia, India, Pakistan, and less lethal but still serious droughts Japan and a number of other places around the world this year. (I'm not going to supply all the links now...just type in the country name and add 'drought' and you'll get plenty of info.)

Really, there's just too much catastrophic news to keep up.
To make an intelligent assessment of that you would have to know how many land areas undergo random droughts in any average year and then compare this years data to the average. There were always some droughts and some of those quite severe if you were trying to live in the effected area. The question is are we getting more net drought area now or is it a wash?
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 03 Nov 2016, 20:18:54

Good point. Crunch some numbers on that for me, wouldja? :) :)

The thing is that people who don't want to accept that things are changing will not be convinced by such data (those scheming scientists probably cooked the books, after all!), nor will they be convinced by actual events, even when those are happening right around them.

Just as with the specifics, you can go searching for the data yourself. If I bring the data, you (or some denialist anyway) will probably suspect it anyway.

In any case, this is a drought thread, after all, and it is always appropriate to bring up droughts on it, it seems to me. :) And in this El Nino year, shifts in patterns of precipitation were expected to create drought in many areas, and they seem to have done that.

In general, though, with global warming there will be (and already is) an overall increase in water vapor in the atmosphere. So one would expect more extremes in rain events than in droughts. I think the thing that people will notice with droughts is that they are shifting to new areas as Hadley Cells expand. Places that used to get reliable rain will suddenly not get it as reliably, and other places will suddenly get more rain, often more rain than they can handle and more and more often coming in ever more torrential downpours.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 03 Nov 2016, 20:35:54

Image

Here's a map of the pattern if increased drought versus increased rainfall.

It looks like increase in drought has hit hardest over this time frame in: India, Sub-Saharan Africa, MENA, much of southern Europe, Eastern Asia parts of Central America, and a few other places. These are among the most populated places on the planet, one might point out.

So far, though, overall global drought has not yet increased perceptibly, not particularly surprising, given what I pointed out about global heating leading to more water vapor in the atmosphere. But the shifts in location of drought evident in the above map can still have locally devastating effects.

http://www.geosci-instrum-method-data-s ... 9-2015.pdf
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 23 Nov 2016, 09:40:04

Bolivia drought


http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-38073575

have called an end to the school year two weeks early as the country suffers from a severe and prolonged drought.

Three reservoirs which supply the largest city, La Paz, are almost dry, and water rationing is in effect until further notice.
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Re: The Drought Thread Pt. 4

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 23 Nov 2016, 13:58:10

What happened to my bet? 'The Greatest California Drought Ever' will end by 2017. Takers? Who want to make a quick buck or hundred?
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