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The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby aldente » Sat 25 Feb 2017, 00:02:27

PO has nothing to do with how much oil has been generated nor how it came into existence.


What is the point of a Peak Oil forum then?
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 25 Feb 2017, 12:06:42

"What is the point of a Peak Oil forum then?" The point is to discuss the socioeconomic impact of the future physical limitation of the amount of oil supplied daily to the global economy.

And that has nothing to do with "how much oil has been generated nor how it came into existence." Which is why the Rockman teases about believing all oil is abiotic: it has no relevance to the peak oil dynamic just as the actual date of global PO is of little important.
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 25 Feb 2017, 13:27:12

peakoilwhen wrote:rockman, why do you support the offshot idea that oil is abiotic?
Just because there's more oil in the ground than we were told 10 years ago?


Your, or peak oilers, confusion on the basic measurements of "oil in the ground" does not abiotic oil proof make.

oeakoilwhen wrote:Oil companies are always going to publish underestimates of their reserves, if they told the world they had trillions of barrels left it would drop the market value of oil. There in an oil cartel for a reason, to keep the value high.


Those of us responsible for doing these estimates, or checking the estimates made by others at the professional level can't find any of those trillions of abiotic barrels in the ground either. There is an oil cartel for a reason, but you don't appear to know what that reason is or even who happens to be in it.

peakoilwhen wrote:So Saudi Arabia now are letting on that they have more than they admitted 10 years ago, and same for a few other oil companies. No one should be surprised.

Have you any other evidence?


How about you provide yours first, since it is you who are disputing the known with truther type conspiracies in an industry that you apparently have zero experience in.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 25 Feb 2017, 13:30:14

aldente wrote:
PO has nothing to do with how much oil has been generated nor how it came into existence.


What is the point of a Peak Oil forum then?


It has been supposed, by me, that this place isn't that. Just check out the topics that are current, and put them into categories. On a relative frequency basis, peak oil is a minor topic compared to other ones, particularly climate change, politics, or just general topics of interest and current events.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby sparky » Sun 26 Feb 2017, 01:40:22

.
Peak oil as a subject is underlying some societal issues ,
the extraction of hydrocarbon is a small technical concern ,its timeline is an open guesswork
the consequences would change the very existence of a growing evolving society
it would have to mutate , either sideway or backward .

Since a few years the tank farms are full ,as a topic , Peak Oil come to the fore when there is a supply crisis .
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 26 Feb 2017, 10:56:19

POW - "Oil companies are always going to publish underestimates of their reserves." Obviously spoken by someone who hasn't got fat ass bonuses (like the Rockman) for convincing 3rd party auditors a company had more proven reserves then they actually did. Nor someone who was fired (as the Rockman has seen numerous times in the last 40 years) for not getting enough new reserves booked.

As I explained many times before I once drilled 4 horizontal wells offshore that management KNEW would never be profitable. But it was done to increase daily production and give the APPEARANCE of more reserves being in the field then there were. But the goal was met: it bumped the stock of this pubcos from $0.75 to $3.50 per share. A got the Rockman a $60k bonus.

And that was almost 25 years ago when $60k was a lot of money. LOL.
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 26 Feb 2017, 23:53:55

Darian S wrote:
ROCKMAN wrote:MD - "If abiotic oil were being produced by the planet at the current rates of extraction". Apparently you haven't yet read the PO News where the auditors haved blessed the KSA reserve numbers. Given the billions of bbls of Saudi oil produced without decreasing its reserve base y-o-y proves abiotic oil is capable of quickly replacing production.

Auditors, can you provide a link to the news? Independent auditors?


No! Not expert auditors, peak oil auditors! Pete was invited to do this work, and Colin Campbell, and Kurt Cobb!

Darian S wrote:Given the billions involved, and the power involved, it is doubtful even independent auditors wouldn't be subject to both the possibility of bribes or threats.


Or worse yet, they get paid good money to do a good job! Heaven forbid there isn't a conspiracy here!

Darian S wrote:From what I understand most places have boosted production with unconventional oil sources as conventional production has declined.

PS Unless the comment is sarcastic, I'm not seeing a reality behind such.


Conventional production hasn't declined, it has risen over the past few years from about 75 mbpd to nearly 80 mbpd, crude oil and lease condensate, same as what the likes of the EIA has been counting for decades now. Good thing we have all that other stuff to add on to the totals as well though, because we are close to cracking the 100 mbpd barrier that The Oil Drum said would never get past 85 mbpd!!
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby ramamramam » Tue 28 Feb 2017, 02:47:23

I agree with the fourth comment about that ....
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 10:53:02

Speaking of dominos here's one more small block China has set onto the long term game board. A cheaper and more secure method of capturing future ME oil production:

Reuters - Nearly a decade in the making, a project to pump oil 500 miles across Myanmar to southwest China is set for imminent start-up, with a supertanker nearing the port of Kyauk Phyu, marking the opening of a new oil trading route.

Dogged by sensitive relations between Naypyitaw and Beijing, the $1.5 billion oil pipeline has been sitting empty for two years, but the two sides are now close to a deal. An agreement between China's PetroChina and Myanmar's government will allow the state energy giant to import overseas oil via the Bay of Bengal and pump it through the pipeline to supply a new 260,000 bopd refinery in landlocked Yunnan province.

The new oil gateway fits with China's "One Belt, One Road" ambitions, linking it with central Asia and Europe, and will provide a more direct alternative route to sending Middle Eastern oil via the crowded Malacca Straits and Singapore.
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 12:45:52

MonteQuest wrote:In a post-peak world, we know things are going to change and change dramatically.


More than a decade past his statements, and they are fantastic examples of the myopia that afflicted the entire peak oil movement. According to our very own learned Pstarr, peak oil soon after this post was made.

And yet nowhere did he, or Monte, ever come up with the idea that the dramatic change was glut and resulting low prices. Monte said racing would be effected, I assume just because he doesn't like racing, and yet racing is still here, cheap air fares are still here (although without as much legroom or luggage carrying capability), the pickups are still top sellers in the US, auto sales are at record levels, and the only thing that peak oil appears to dramatically changed are things for the good. Fear of it gave us EVs and renewable power generation, Americans while buying record numbers of new cars aren't driving them as much, the young and millennials don't view autos the way us old farts do, cars are driving themselves now, and some of them won't need gasoline any more than normal pluggable hybrids do, driven by people, efficiency gains continue even in a low price environment, hundreds of billions of recently "discovered" shale oil has been prototyped in the US, which used it to turn on production volumes as big as Ghawar. Dramatic change indeed, and all of it missed by Monte in his doomer porn fiction writings.

And the debt! Huge debt! The bubble will pop! it probably will, but Monte's interpretation of "huge" must have been influenced by...well....lets just say that some huge is greater than others huge. :lol:
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby Doly » Tue 30 May 2017, 14:30:34

Haven't been here for years, literally. I used to have a job in a call-centre that allowed me plenty of time in the Internet between calls. Then I got busy getting involved in the local Transition Town, rather than posting stuff on the Internet. I just have some free time lately, and I wondered how the old forums went. And I see the quality has dropped like a stone.

Sure, the doomers always went too far. But at least in the forum I remember, the optimists weren't entirely disconnected from reality.

Dear optimist: Have you noticed how the stories about "peak oil demand" are full of contradictions? If not, let me point it out to you:
1. They surprisingly rarely say that they expect oil prices will go down, in spite that it would be a logical consequence of oil production going down due to lack of demand.
2. They almost always contain a line saying that "peak oil supply" has been discredited. How come? Peak oil supply simply states that, oil being a finite resource, at some point production must peak. It's a logical consequence of it being finite. You can then argue about the date of this peak. You cannot argue that the inevitability of this peak is a "theory".
3. They somehow ignore that surely there will be some places in poorer countries where there will still be a demand for traditional liquid fuel vehicles because the infrastructure for electric vehicles won't be there.
4. The stories also go that Big Oil companies are thinking of diversifying into plastics. Why plastics? Why not selling the traditional oil products to other potential buyers, as per point 3?

Is it possible, just possible, that "peak oil demand" is the new fashionable name for "peak oil", just denying the fact that the peak in production is because of problems in supply?

As for the fact that oil prices went down since the big spike, I have noted too that they have kept to a couple of fairly narrow bands. As if they were, you know, managed. In fact, I was at a big Financial Times meeting last year, and there was a guy there explaining how part of the reason for low interest rates is to keep oil prices managed, and then going on about how the responsibility for management was going to go from the American Fed to the ECB (it seems to me that one didn't happen, but I'm no financial expert).

So, to the question that people were asking back in the day, when I used to be a regular in these forums: Do The Powers That Be know? I'm pretty sure by now the answer is: Yeah, sure. And they've decided the correct response is obfuscation and propaganda, so that the little people don't panic. While managing prices. And, by the way, preparing for WWIII with the last country with significant reserves of oil that doesn't bow to the USA: Russia. Which is why the Russians moved their chess pieces, and put all that effort into getting elected the one guy that might, just might, not go to war with them.

But hey, what do I know. I'm just one of the little people. But don't insult my intelligence by saying that oh, people are absolutely certain about a decline in demand, which needs to go into the secret of what people may desire in the future, but at the same time, a peak in supply is an unproven theory. In the real world, people's desires are uncertain. Physical facts are not.
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 30 May 2017, 16:40:26

Doly wrote:Haven't been here for years, literally. I used to have a job in a call-centre that allowed me plenty of time in the Internet between calls. Then I got busy getting involved in the local Transition Town, rather than posting stuff on the Internet. I just have some free time lately, and I wondered how the old forums went. And I see the quality has dropped like a stone.


Well, that depends on where you sat back when peak oil was happening and the world was about to end. For the uber-doomers, yep, they are now forced to defend peak oil volumes 10,000,000 barrels a day smaller than today, why peak oil caused low prices and glut everywhere, and the quality of their ideas in this regard plummeted. The good news is that folks like John Denver, proven nearly prophetic now, don't even need to post to say "I told you so!" because it is obvious to every leftover doomer with a trip to the gas station what has happened.

Doly wrote:Sure, the doomers always went too far. But at least in the forum I remember, the optimists weren't entirely disconnected from reality.


The optimists back in the day were banned for...as we know now...daring to say something outside of herdthink. Even more horrifying is the idea that they were right.

Doly wrote:Dear optimist: Have you noticed how the stories about "peak oil demand" are full of contradictions? If not, let me point it out to you:
1. They surprisingly rarely say that they expect oil prices will go down, in spite that it would be a logical consequence of oil production going down due to lack of demand.


Pragmatists can go to the corner gas station and see what claimed peak oil has wrought, as can you.

Doly wrote:2. They almost always contain a line saying that "peak oil supply" has been discredited. How come? Peak oil supply simply states that, oil being a finite resource, at some point production must peak. It's a logical consequence of it being finite. You can then argue about the date of this peak. You cannot argue that the inevitability of this peak is a "theory".


Peak oil supply can't be discredited, it will happen one way or another. That is the axiomatic beauty of at least PART of Hubbert's idea. It is all the hysterical arm waving and breathless speculation on the consequences that is just silly.

Doly wrote:3. They somehow ignore that surely there will be some places in poorer countries where there will still be a demand for traditional liquid fuel vehicles because the infrastructure for electric vehicles won't be there.


Peak demand folks, particularly real live energy experts like Amy Jaffe, assume no such thing. And the even better news is that with even more oil today than humans previously suspected just a few years ago, it isn't as though any of those countries have to worry about running out any time soon. More time for transitioning than anyone ever expected!

Doly wrote:4. The stories also go that Big Oil companies are thinking of diversifying into plastics. Why plastics? Why not selling the traditional oil products to other potential buyers, as per point 3?


Oil is obsolete, and neither consumers nor doomers appear to realize this yet.

Remember when peak oil was going to stop transition? And then not only did folks build out windmills and utility scale solar like Ivanpah, but better yet, auto makers began making EVs? Ain't that GREAT!! And so maybe oil companies know that there days are numbered!

Doly wrote:Is it possible, just possible, that "peak oil demand" is the new fashionable name for "peak oil", just denying the fact that the peak in production is because of problems in supply?


Nope..can't be a new name. You see, they aren't the same thing. Peak supply was supposed to FORCE peak demand..not the other way around.

Doly wrote:So, to the question that people were asking back in the day, when I used to be a regular in these forums: Do The Powers That Be know? I'm pretty sure by now the answer is: Yeah, sure.


Of course they KNOW. Mike Ruppert claimed that the entire 9/11 conspiracy was designed to HIDE that they know!

Doly wrote:But hey, what do I know. I'm just one of the little people. But don't insult my intelligence by saying that oh, people are absolutely certain about a decline in demand, which needs to go into the secret of what people may desire in the future, but at the same time, a peak in supply is an unproven theory. In the real world, people's desires are uncertain. Physical facts are not.


Amy Jaffe knows more about energy economics then little people like you and I, but hey, what do non-little people know, right? Interestingly, no one has been able to refute her specifics in print so far...could it be that peakers are more than a little worried about getting yet MORE egg on their faces when it turns out that not only have they been caught recycling bad peak ideas once now, but are going for strike #2 in just a decade's time?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 31 May 2017, 17:37:17

Doly - " The stories also go that Big Oil companies are thinking of diversifying into plastics. Why plastics? Why not selling the traditional oil products to other potential buyers." To respond properly we need to understand what you mean by "Big Oil". If you mean those companies involved in only the exploration and production end of the business: they never have been involved making plastic nor are they moving that direction now.

OTOH if by "Big Oil" you mean the large "vertically integrated" companies not only extracting oil but also refining it they have been the heart of the plastic and petrochemical industry since the very beginning.

You might want to check out the "The Ethane Thread". "Big Petrochemical" (a huge portion of Big Oil) is spending $50 BILLION just within 20 mikes of the Rockman) to enhance its capacity to process ethane. Ethane: a NG liquid whose production has surged as a result of the other portions of Big and Little Oil developing the US shale plays.

Ethane and plastics? Ethane is turned into ethylene. And ethylene has a variety of industrial uses. These products are used in a wide variety of industrial and consumer markets such as the packaging, transportation, electrical/electronic, textile and construction industries as well as consumer chemicals, coatings and adhesives. The largest outlet, accounting for 60% of ethylene demand globally, is polyethylene. Polyethylene... the most common plastic on the planet.

So: "Why not selling the traditional oil products to other potential buyers." Ethane, ethylene and all the refinery products produced from oil have always been sold to "other potential buyers". It's why the vertically integrated Big Oil companies were created in the first place.

You do have some interest points to make IMHO. But be careful in the technical areas: Adam loves to bust balls when such slips occur. LOL
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby efarmer » Wed 31 May 2017, 21:51:57

Dear friend worked in Baytown, Tx at a German owned plastics plant, huge plays going on for ethane and corresponsing polyethylene and plastics plays. Interestingly, the Germans are getting out and opting for genetic and companion chenical big agriculture plays. Shows me the plastics plays are interesting for Middle East and Saudi investments in the ethane surplus of certain field exploits and that they probably have bucks to yield from them. German money is smart and moves in smart ways, and they avoid a commodity raw materials business as the race to to the bottom it is. We have a CIC who is a real estate developer and looks for strategy and leverage wins in the short term against people who have insight and long range goals beyond putting a big gold "T" on a coveted real estate property.
Playing checkers with chess players is a losing posture, we bet on this to feel good about shaking up government so it would pay attention to us. In this case, taking it "to the man" is a neophyte railing up against the best and brightest we have, the most experienced, the most steeped in reality, and catering to the forsaken middle class, stunted by GDP idling, against the real challenges and realities of the world we are in. Imagine if you could that our posture was to play checkers against the grand masters, and come out intact and in a great position. Do you think a great game of checkers restores 4% GDP growth needed in an era of stagnant growth and bodacious financial manipulation? Perhaps in the New York metro with great hype and tabloid manipulation for a prized location. The rest of the nation is screwed by a guy who garners all the attention and hype and makes up his mind at the very last possible second. Winning bigly in New York is a recipe for losing bigly as a nation. We hired Rodney Dangerfield from Caddyshack to run the world, and are focused on the guy gunning for the groundhog.
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Wed 31 May 2017, 22:31:07

Doly wrote: I just have some free time lately, and I wondered how the old forums went. And I see the quality has dropped like a stone.

Yeah, everybody has noticed that. There is still some good real information to be gained, but most of everything here is just reworked opinion. Over and Over and Over ........
I'm going to hit the road again in about a month and have already killed my satellite internet connection as of the middle of June, so I won't be around too much either.
I've almost got my old RV repaired and modified to my satisfaction and I hope to become a full-timer and just look for pretty places to photograph. The only two states I haven't been to are New Hampshire and Vermont, so those are high priority now.
I will check in from time to time if I find some good wifi spots.
Till then, yall take care now.
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 01 Jun 2017, 05:27:55

"I have noted too that they have kept to a couple of fairly narrow bands. As if they were, you know, managed."

It's a little hypocritical to bash the quality of the discussion here and your only real contribution is to throw out yet another conspiracy theory.
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 01 Jun 2017, 08:03:32

Hawkcreek wrote: The only two states I haven't been to are New Hampshire and Vermont, so those are high priority now.
I will check in from time to time if I find some good wifi spots.
Till then, yall take care now.


I've been to all the states except Hawaii, but the real effort is in going to all the counties in the country. When in New Hampshire do Mt Washington, it is worth it, plus its pretty country in general. Stop in and see vtsnowedin, and maybe visit Revi if you feel like jumping over the border to Maine, he is more on the western side of the state so not hard to get to from New Hampshire.

Was just up in NE Nebraska and hanging around near Minneapolis myself, then up and down the peninsula NE of Green Bay, I love hanging around near any shore of a great lake. Keweenau being my favorite so far. Good travels, and don't worry at all about fuel, availability or prices, because as we all know, peak oil happened, and the results were cheapness and abundance, making it a perfect environment for road tripping, with or without a gas hog!

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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 01 Jun 2017, 10:33:06

Farmer - Not just Baytown, home of the Rockman who lives just across the highway from ExxonMobil's giant ethane cracker under construction. As well as more the $50 BILLION in capex being spent on refinery expansions within 20 miles of the Rockman:

"Shows me the plastics plays are interesting for Middle East and Saudi investments in the ethane surplus of certain field exploits and that they probably have bucks to yield from them."

Such as:

Exxon Mobil Chemical will build the world's largest ethylene cracker plant in south Texas. Exxon, with project partner Saudi Arabia Basic Industries Corp, ended months of speculation by announcing it plans to build the $10 billion plant near Portland in the Corpus Christi area.

The chemical and plastics plant is the first U.S. joint venture for SABIC and Exxon Mobil, two of the world’s biggest energy companies. The plant could come online as early as 2020 if construction begins this year. The plan is to take advantage of cheap and ample shale natural gas available here to make chemicals and plastics."

Interesting developments considering how often we hear from some folks here that the petroleum industry is on its last leg and on the verge of going down the toilet, eh?
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 01 Jun 2017, 10:38:08

Hawk - "...New Hampshire and Vermont...". What! You don't want to hang in south Texas in the summer time?

Via con dios, muchacho.
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 01 Jun 2017, 11:39:21

ROCKMAN wrote:Interesting developments considering how often we hear from some folks here that the petroleum industry is on its last leg and on the verge of going down the toilet, eh?


How dare you quote multi billion dollar investments in hydrocarbon development because of cheap and available natural gas supplies which were supposed to have peaked 50 years ago! Heresy! Put your blinders back on, immediately take all estimates of abundance anywhere on anything and divide by 1000, THAT must be the real number because abundance...can't exist!! We can only have...DOOOOOOMMMMMMMM!!!!

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