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The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 20 Dec 2016, 11:53:00

Adam, technically your right with regards to what your saying. However, how does any of that change the basic and fundamental energy equations inherent with the Oil to be recovered and produced now and into the future? What the Hills Group is alleging based on their expert extensive analysis is that we have already reached the point and passed it when one unit of energy needed to recover, produce and distribute Oil and all other concomitant ancillary yet necessary energy related activity for the consumption and use of energy derived from Oil no longer yields that same one unit of energy but less. Or to simplify the Oil Industry now is taking energy/money from the General Economy to finance itself energetically/economically. Net Energy is now in the negative.
“"If you think the economy is more important than the environment, try holding your breath while counting your money"”
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 20 Dec 2016, 15:05:17

onlooker wrote:Adam, technically your right with regards to what your saying. However, how does any of that change the basic and fundamental energy equations inherent with the Oil to be recovered and produced now and into the future?


There are no energy equations about oil to be recovered in the future. The point of the white paper I referenced was that there is only 1 limit to producing all the resource, and 1 independent and 1 dependent variable that dictates the amount of that resource that can be extracted. And neither of those are energy variables.

onlooker wrote:
What the Hills Group is alleging based on their expert extensive analysis is that we have already reached the point and passed it when one unit of energy needed to recover, produce and distribute Oil and all other concomitant ancillary yet necessary energy related activity for the consumption and use of energy derived from Oil no longer yields that same one unit of energy but less.


An example of the the extensive "expert" analysis of the Hill Group, otherwise known as finding a correlation and assuming causation...just like this...

Image


onlooker wrote:Or to simplify the Oil Industry now is taking energy/money from the General Economy to finance itself energetically/economically. Net Energy is now in the negative.


Well, it would seem to me that if this was important, you, me and everyone else here wouldn't be able to drive down to the corner store and buy a tanker of fuel if we wanted to. But we can. So if you say net energy is now negative...great....good thing it doesn't bother billions of fuel consumers around the globe, because if it did, then it might really matter!
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 20 Dec 2016, 15:17:11

But we can

Because of lending
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 20 Dec 2016, 16:20:45

onlooker wrote:
But we can

Because of lending

I wouldn't expect a response onlooker. AdamB is a drive-by idiot. You only get to catch quick glances of his moronity. Here today--dumb tomorrow. But not to worry. He always returns. :razz:
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 20 Dec 2016, 16:48:34

Yeah, I know the best he can come up with is we got our predictions wrong 10 years ago. I guess he likes to live in the past.
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 20 Dec 2016, 17:02:45

onlooker wrote:Yeah, I know the best he can come up with is we got our predictions wrong 10 years ago. I guess he likes to live in the past.

Funny thing is: the only reasonable prediction I remember from that early time was rockdoc, the oil professional. He said peak would be around 2015. Give or take.

Rockdoc considered the big reserves and regions, came to the conclusion that most everything was plateaued and waiting for the decline. The one was exception in rockdoc mind was the Ghawar upgrade and the Manifa rework in SA. He understood (as very few do here) that the big new resources (ultra-deep, Arctic, Green River, Orinoco, GTL, CTL etc etc ) were too costly, and far off. It would take at least ten years to have developed this. We obviously didn't do it. We didn't have the money then or now.
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 20 Dec 2016, 22:17:10

onlooker wrote:
But we can

Because of lending


I've never borrowed a dime to buy fuel in more than 1.1 million miles of driving. Why in the world would you want to borrow money to buy fuel? And all those people at the gasoline stations handing over dollar bills...you figure when people pay cash, they just took out a cash advance from their credit card, rather than, you know, taking some of their pay check, cashing it, and using it to buy stuff?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 20 Dec 2016, 22:20:13

onlooker wrote:Yeah, I know the best he can come up with is we got our predictions wrong 10 years ago. I guess he likes to live in the past.

Funny thing is: the only reasonable prediction I remember from that early time was rockdoc, the oil professional. He said peak would be around 2015. Give or take.

Rockdoc considered the big reserves and regions, came to the conclusion that most everything was plateaued and waiting for the decline. The one was exception in rockdoc mind was the Ghawar upgrade and the Manifa rework in SA. He understood (as very few do here) that the big new resources (ultra-deep, Arctic, Green River, Orinoco, GTL, CTL etc etc ) were too costly, and far off. It would take at least ten years to have developed this. We obviously didn't do it. We didn't have the money then or now.
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 20 Dec 2016, 22:22:11

onlooker wrote:Yeah, I know the best he can come up with is we got our predictions wrong 10 years ago. I guess he likes to live in the past.


Those who don't learn history are doomed to repeat it. Substituting one correlation/causality problem for another is doing exactly that.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 20 Dec 2016, 22:27:33

pstarr wrote:
onlooker wrote:Yeah, I know the best he can come up with is we got our predictions wrong 10 years ago. I guess he likes to live in the past.

Funny thing is: the only reasonable prediction I remember from that early time was rockdoc, the oil professional. He said peak would be around 2015. Give or take.


And Mr Reserve was the one who kicked in where it would happen, amongst the unconventionals. Both of these posters get credit for knowing more about the reality that followed than those endlessly hawking bell shaped curves (now random correlation between two independent variables). Mr Copious Abundance gets credit for spotting the turn around in US oil production and noticing it even as USA-ASPO was proclaiming an upcoming energy crisis in the middle of the fastest growing oil production in the history of the US.

And JD gets ultimate kudos for knocking down nearly every peak oil angle as it was happening, not falling for it and and blogging it.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 20 Dec 2016, 22:31:48

onlooker wrote:Yeah, I know the best he can come up with is we got our predictions wrong 10 years ago. I guess he likes to live in the past.

Funny thing is: the only reasonable prediction I remember from that early time was rockdoc, the oil professional. He said peak would be around 2015. Give or take.

Rockdoc considered the big reserves and regions, came to the conclusion that most everything was plateaued and waiting for the decline. The one was exception in rockdoc mind was the Ghawar upgrade and the Manifa rework in SA. He understood (as very few do here) that the big new resources (ultra-deep, Arctic, Green River, Orinoco, GTL, CTL etc etc ) were too costly, and far off. It would take at least ten years to have developed this. We obviously didn't do it. We didn't have the money then or now.
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby KilonBerlin » Wed 21 Dec 2016, 11:26:18

pstarr wrote:That's another opinion. Very fresh. Very new. Brilliant.


Hi,

since I do not know you and my English is really not the best (dict.cc and the special Google Chrome function are good friends of mine^^)

Was is serious or sarcastic? I said that I know this thread is old... but I thought back what I thought or heard in 2004, I started to look a bit more about fossil fuels and all kind of stuff with numbers (I'm a number "freak" ;) ) Before I informed myself I was believing the News crap and docus with titles like "The run for the last barrels", or even scnearios like "What would happen if the oil production would be zero over night, all around the world... a very important scenario...

many of such shows/docus... BRIC, China is a large country and has also a large production, which made it to an net exporter until 1992, I informed myself in 2006-2007?

So I think most people here know how it looks in middle-term with oil. A decade can change everything...
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby aldente » Sat 28 Jan 2017, 07:24:56

HeyKillonBerlin - wonderful -thanks for your contribution

PeakOil cannot happen since the Russian abiotic oil theory did proof to be reality.

Meaning we are not in any shortage.

Nevertheless - welcome on the most extreme math forum currently available on this world - based on Carl Gustav Gauss, a German youngster that developed a math all governments of this world as we know of source from - namely statistics -

best is to work with pictures ! Me, as picture wizard, I source from the American Google Picture search - the German equivalent is meger in comparison, maybe that is why I currently post from Los Angeles,.
Berlin is ok to my information - however- -I have not been there after the wall fell !

Does not make me old -but rather current. Tell us about your impressions from over there now - if you wish !

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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 28 Jan 2017, 10:29:07

"PeakOil cannot happen since the Russian abiotic oil theory did proof to be reality." As stated many times before the Rockman, with more the 40 years of hunting hydrocarbons, fully supports the concept of abiotic oil. Unfortunately PO has nothing to do with how much oil has been generated nor how it came into existence. It also has nothing to do with how much oil may be generated as I type. PO deals with the amount of oil being produced regardless of its origin. And how much oil we produce is a function of how much we find. And we can only find oil in physical situations where oil can exist. And we've done an excellent job of identifying those areas. And the concept of abiotic oil does not increase the size of that area.

So again let me be very clear about the Rockman's position: every bbl of oil that has been generated, discovered, produced and still left in the ground has an abiotic origin. Thus whatever that rather unimportant date arrives the world will not have reached PO but will have reached PAO...Peak Abiotic Oil.

With that FACT in mind our overlord here should consider rebranding the site as "peakabioticoil.com". That way we can stop wasting time debating the f*cking origin of oil. LOL.
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 28 Jan 2017, 11:56:17

Forgot to point out what I hope should be obvious to most here: the domino effect from PO kicked in long ago. And should have been anticipated to start long before the date of global PO if one understood the POD.
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby MD » Sat 28 Jan 2017, 16:21:28

ROCKMAN wrote:"PeakOil cannot happen since the Russian abiotic oil theory did proof to be reality." As stated many times before the Rockman, with more the 40 years of hunting hydrocarbons, fully supports the concept of abiotic oil. Unfortunately PO has nothing to do with how much oil has been generated nor how it came into existence. It also has nothing to do with how much oil may be generated as I type. PO deals with the amount of oil being produced regardless of its origin. And how much oil we produce is a function of how much we find. And we can only find oil in physical situations where oil can exist. And we've done an excellent job of identifying those areas. And the concept of abiotic oil does not increase the size of that area.

So again let me be very clear about the Rockman's position: every bbl of oil that has been generated, discovered, produced and still left in the ground has an abiotic origin. Thus whatever that rather unimportant date arrives the world will not have reached PO but will have reached PAO...Peak Abiotic Oil.

With that FACT in mind our overlord here should consider rebranding the site as "peakabioticoil.com". That way we can stop wasting time debating the f*cking origin of oil. LOL.


If abiotic oil were being produced by the planet at the current rates of extraction, the planet would have ocean sized quantities, so it's a moot point when discussing potential production rates. That was my amateur conclusion 10 years ago. I see no reason to change it.
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 28 Jan 2017, 22:22:18

MD - "If abiotic oil were being produced by the planet at the current rates of extraction". Apparently you haven't yet read the PO News where the auditors haved blessed the KSA reserve numbers. Given the billions of bbls of Saudi oil produced without decreasing its reserve base y-o-y proves abiotic oil is capable of quickly replacing production.
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby Darian S » Tue 31 Jan 2017, 03:03:57

ROCKMAN wrote:MD - "If abiotic oil were being produced by the planet at the current rates of extraction". Apparently you haven't yet read the PO News where the auditors haved blessed the KSA reserve numbers. Given the billions of bbls of Saudi oil produced without decreasing its reserve base y-o-y proves abiotic oil is capable of quickly replacing production.

Auditors, can you provide a link to the news? Independent auditors? Given the billions involved, and the power involved, it is doubtful even independent auditors wouldn't be subject to both the possibility of bribes or threats.

From what I understand most places have boosted production with unconventional oil sources as conventional production has declined.

PS Unless the comment is sarcastic, I'm not seeing a reality behind such.
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 31 Jan 2017, 14:10:19

D - The Rockman being sarcastic!!! How dare you, sir!!! Not a sarcastic bone in my body. But with respect to muscles I have been called a sarcastic glutimus maximus before. LOL

http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/bu ... KKBN15B1C5

Just search "Saudi reserve audit" and you'll find mucho stories.
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Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Wed 08 Feb 2017, 13:50:00

rockman, why do you support the offshot idea that oil is abiotic?
Just because there's more oil in the ground than we were told 10 years ago? Oil companies are always going to publish underestimates of their reserves, if they told the world they had trillions of barrels left it would drop the market value of oil. There in an oil cartel for a reason, to keep the value high.
So Saudi Arabia now are letting on that they have more than they admitted 10 years ago, and same for a few other oil companies. No one should be surprised.

Have you any other evidence?
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