Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Moderator: Pops

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby BigTex » Tue 02 Feb 2016, 23:24:19

ennui2 wrote:Some of us have changed handles. Like I used to be Straker/mos6507.

You were one of the more moderate and intelligent voices. I learned a lot from your analysis.


mos6507. Yes. It's all coming back to me now.
:)
User avatar
BigTex
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3858
Joined: Thu 03 Aug 2006, 02:00:00
Location: Graceland

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby ennui2 » Tue 02 Feb 2016, 23:36:44

This used to be one of my avatar images.

Image

A profile just as kitsch as Bubba Ho-Tep.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
User avatar
ennui2
permanently banned
 
Posts: 3931
Joined: Tue 20 Sep 2011, 09:37:02
Location: Not on Homeworld

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 21 Feb 2016, 19:25:59

Well it looks like this prolonged low price of oil is really hurting the major oil producing countries like KSA, Venezuela and Russia. One thing curious is that they did not mention USA who I think also qualifies based on how the Fracking/Shale companies have been hurting some going out of business. Here is article. http://thedailycoin.org/?p=63710
“"If you think the economy is more important than the environment, try holding your breath while counting your money"”
User avatar
onlooker
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 7737
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 21 Feb 2016, 20:10:51

The economies of KSA, Venezuela and Russia are heavily dependent on oil sales. The US is a diversified economy with a broad economic base; twitter, facebook, and the Kardashians.
Haven't you heard? I'm a doomer!
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 26058
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 21 Feb 2016, 20:18:56

pstarr wrote:The economies of KSA, Venezuela and Russia are heavily dependent on oil sales. The US is a diversified economy with a broad economic base; twitter, facebook, and the Kardashians.

Yep you got a point P, we are a broad diversified economy. Or at least used to be :lol: :lol:
“"If you think the economy is more important than the environment, try holding your breath while counting your money"”
User avatar
onlooker
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 7737
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 21 Feb 2016, 20:32:33

The link reads like it was written by a 10 year old. Take the plan to diversify the JSA energy consumption. Long overdue IMHO. But that doesn't change their complete dependence on oil export revenue. They can certainly use less oil to make electricity as they do now but that will have little affect on oil export rervernue since eventually, like every other oil producing country, will reach its PO. And so illogical: why spend mucho $BILLIONS on nuke plants when they have so much NG with so little market value.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 10525
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 21 Feb 2016, 20:44:02

onlooker wrote:Well it looks like this prolonged low price of oil is really hurting the major oil producing countries like KSA, Venezuela and Russia. One thing curious is that they did not mention USA who I think also qualifies based on how the Fracking/Shale companies have been hurting some going out of business. Here is article. http://thedailycoin.org/?p=63710


As it was before, so shall it be again.

http://www.nytimes.com/1989/08/22/busin ... -bust.html
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 2733
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 16:10:26

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby evilgenius » Mon 22 Feb 2016, 12:05:59

ennui2 wrote:I'd say if we were to have a crash, it would be precipitated by the bubble bursting in tech. It's really the tech sector that is making most of the money these days, and much of the valuation is just as phantom as it was back in the dot com boom. The difference is that tech companies are avoiding IPOs. It's mostly private VC money funding these unicorns. This will limit the collateral damage if they collapse.

People have been arguing about federal deficit Armageddon for ages and nobody really knows what the endgame is on that, and as long as other countries like Greece are defaulting, the US looks like a pretty safe bet.

As for fracking, there's more than enough evidence to suggest that there's enough recoverable oil left to fuel a 2nd wave of fracking after the frackers get wiped out and prices creep back to where it's more profitable to drill again.


The trouble with tech is that, in the end, it is about doing things more efficiently. Tech mostly does this with code. Code is easily reused, or imitated. Like chicken restaurant ideas, the torch doesn't pass very far down the line before the incremental increases in efficiency become very small from one iteration to the next. There is crowding at the register, just like there is crowding at the ride-share door, the food shopping aisle and the server-side plantation.
User avatar
evilgenius
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 2192
Joined: Tue 06 Dec 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Stopped at the border.

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby ennui2 » Mon 22 Feb 2016, 12:30:09

People always talk about how oil are energy slaves. Well, tech is too. Robots aren't what displaces workers. Online services do. For instance, for my daughter's doctor's appointment I got a robocall with a synthetic voice. After that the secretary called, but she didn't really have to. Since so much of customer service is a multiple-choice affair, we're fast proceeding beyond Indian call-centers to THX-1138 land.

And in the past, if you wanted to make and sell something, like in the 1800s, before mass production, you used your hands. You grew it or you were a blacksmith or a craftsman. But now we've moved beyond even mass production and if you make something digital (like a mobile game) then it is (theoretically) a cash-machine. You put it online and the entire transaction is electronic.

The best kind of business to be in is a middle-man. ITunes is one, as is Valve Steam. Valve used to make games, now they don't need to. They can just handle the transactions between game publishers and the public. Same deal with Amazon with eCommerce and fulfillment. And how did Elon Musk make his fortune? From a pseudo-bank/credit-card processor (PayPal) that took a cut on every transaction.

I'm not listing these things out to rant, but this is the way economics works these days. Entrepreneurs chases these segments because they hold the promise of the highest ROI for the lowest labor costs.

And a lot of these kinds of businesses tend to settle into monopolies. Facebook, Amazon, Google, eBay, PayPal, Apple. There's very little genuine competition in each space.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
User avatar
ennui2
permanently banned
 
Posts: 3931
Joined: Tue 20 Sep 2011, 09:37:02
Location: Not on Homeworld

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby Subjectivist » Thu 28 Apr 2016, 13:47:13

ennui2 wrote:People always talk about how oil are energy slaves. Well, tech is too. Robots aren't what displaces workers. Online services do. For instance, for my daughter's doctor's appointment I got a robocall with a synthetic voice. After that the secretary called, but she didn't really have to. Since so much of customer service is a multiple-choice affair, we're fast proceeding beyond Indian call-centers to THX-1138 land.

And in the past, if you wanted to make and sell something, like in the 1800s, before mass production, you used your hands. You grew it or you were a blacksmith or a craftsman. But now we've moved beyond even mass production and if you make something digital (like a mobile game) then it is (theoretically) a cash-machine. You put it online and the entire transaction is electronic.

The best kind of business to be in is a middle-man. ITunes is one, as is Valve Steam. Valve used to make games, now they don't need to. They can just handle the transactions between game publishers and the public. Same deal with Amazon with eCommerce and fulfillment. And how did Elon Musk make his fortune? From a pseudo-bank/credit-card processor (PayPal) that took a cut on every transaction.

I'm not listing these things out to rant, but this is the way economics works these days. Entrepreneurs chases these segments because they hold the promise of the highest ROI for the lowest labor costs.

And a lot of these kinds of businesses tend to settle into monopolies. Facebook, Amazon, Google, eBay, PayPal, Apple. There's very little genuine competition in each space.


I agree with you up to a point, however all of those things have a large amount of embedded energy in them.

For example, a new mobile game that catches on needs to have lots of affordable mobile devices that can run the game, the same way a computer game for home use needed a computer with a fast enough processor and graphics card to play. If peak makes energy much more expensive a lot of people won't be able to buy that new phone or notebook to play those new games. Plus the game designer won't be able to charge as much for the game even if it plays on older systems, again because expensive energy eliminates disposable income luxuries first.

I think the first year post peak will look a lot like 2008, economic problems building on each other all over the place.
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
User avatar
Subjectivist
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 4050
Joined: Sat 28 Aug 2010, 06:38:26
Location: Northwest Ohio

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby ennui2 » Thu 28 Apr 2016, 14:37:14

Considering that Cuba still has tons of 1950s style vehicles, if we get to the point where people can't afford the latest and greatest tablet or smart phone they can try to make do with current tech for longer than they do at present. That's already happening with desktop PCs.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
User avatar
ennui2
permanently banned
 
Posts: 3931
Joined: Tue 20 Sep 2011, 09:37:02
Location: Not on Homeworld

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 29 Apr 2016, 12:05:30

First year post-PO? I can make two very reasonable models for those 12 months. One would have oil selling for $120/bbl and the other running oil at $30/bbl. Again easily proven since we just ran through similar variations in a short amount of time. IOW the date of global PO will have little or no bearing on the price of oil during the year following that date. Politically the world might be relatively calm or there could be mass disruptions. The global economy might just skip along OK that first year or it may be nose diving into the toilet.

We've just witnessed a variety of factors that have proven themselves to be much more impactful then some date on a calendar could ever prove itself to be.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 10525
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 29 Apr 2016, 12:50:36

ROCKMAN wrote:First year post-PO? I can make two very reasonable models for those 12 months. One would have oil selling for $120/bbl and the other running oil at $30/bbl. Again easily proven since we just ran through similar variations in a short amount of time. IOW the date of global PO will have little or no bearing on the price of oil during the year following that date. Politically the world might be relatively calm or there could be mass disruptions. The global economy might just skip along OK that first year or it may be nose diving into the toilet.

We've just witnessed a variety of factors that have proven themselves to be much more impactful then some date on a calendar could ever prove itself to be.


Two things, I think world Peak is the wrong metric, its not how much oil available that matters most, its how much available compared to how much demand at what price.

If the peak is 100 mm/bbl/d but the economy stinks and demand is 90 mm/bbl/d the price will be low and we will still have a surplus. On the other hand if supply is 80 mm/bbl/d and the economy can afford it every every available barrel will sell for $150 each and every one.

Reality will probably be somewhere between those extremes for the first year, and if the economy survives a couple years at those levels a number of substitutes will be brought online as fast as they can be built.

However once we have passed geologic world peak and given that depletion never ceases I doubt substitution will be able to be built fast enough, and that is why people call me a doomer.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
User avatar
Tanada
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 13884
Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 29 Apr 2016, 14:27:21

Tanada wrote:However once we have passed geologic world peak and given that depletion never ceases I doubt substitution will be able to be built fast enough, and that is why people call me a doomer.


What does "geologic" peak even mean when it is just a number defined by the price and technology applied? The EIA wrote this up recently, and it seems to directly capture the idea that there is a price where you will get it all. I think the scientists of the USGS have published on this idea as well.

So how do we define "geologic" peak when it is conditional on economic and engineering factors...and not even those of today...but tomorrow?

https://www.eia.gov/workingpapers/pdf/trr.pdf
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 2733
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 16:10:26

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 29 Apr 2016, 14:49:50

T - I was going to ask the same question Adam has. I think I get your point but you seem to want define PO more on the basis of what COULD be produced as opposed to what is being produced. The Rockman is old school: PO is the max amount of oil actually produced. If it's 100 mm bopd then that's the most the world will every produce even if there were another 20 mm bopd that COULD have been produced. IOW we hit POP...Peak Oil Production. Not POPC....Peak Oil Production Capability.

Which get's back to my point about what happens in the 12 months following January 31, 20XX, at which time the world will never produce more then the YY million bopd in did that month. Even if the producers could have produced 20 mm bopd more it wouldn't matter if the world couldn't afford to buy that extra 20 mm bopd. Consider that some time in 2016 many years down the road we realize that we did in fact hit GPO this year. So what happens in 2017 if that were true? Higher oil prices? Maybe. But what if the world goes into a serious recession and no more then the 2016 max can be purchased even at this year's lower price. Or what about the unlikely event that OPEC finally (for the first time) becomes a true oil cartel, reduces production and we see oil back up above $90/bbl in 2017? So if GPO hits in 2016 it could be followed by even lower oil prices then we have today or perhaps much higher oil prices.

It will all depend on the POD...not that date of GPO sometime during 2016.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 10525
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby Pops » Fri 29 Apr 2016, 18:10:46

ROCK wrote:PO is the max amount of oil actually produced.

Which explains why you don't think the date of PO is particularly important. By that definition I don't either.

--
I have to admit I've given in to economics.

This is a board primarily inhabited by environmentalists (and Armageddonists) and the idea that Mother Always Trumps Economics is recieved wisdom. I went along with that for quite a while. But the economics of oil extraction is not about thermodynamics or any other physical law that can be modeled, peak oil production is not even necessarily much about geology. PO is about humans and how much we love to drive, which amounts to something much more than some rational number.

While I still believe a date past which the cheap oil of which we have become accustom is less available is all important and things will fundamentally change after, I no longer think I'll necessarily ever know it to point to it on a calendar. Because it doesn't necessarily have anything to do with actual production or price, it could come at any level of price or production.

Which isn't to say geology doesn't matter, of course it matters. That there is some point at which, just as Hubbert said, given no "outside influences" oil production would naturally peak. But humans extracting oil is the outside influence and there is no logic to it. We'll only know the Hubbert peak date after all the extraction is over.


If a person is looking for the idealized Hubbert peak globally they will be disappointed. My very first illustration of PO was after Laherrere's idea of shifting discovery forward 40 years. (from Here):

Image

"You can't pump it if you can't find it."


But the classic Full Hubbert was truncated way back by humans and their economics, first with the creation of OPEC to replace TRRC at the peak of US conventional. So what we'll see will more resemble this...

Image

That's an oldie I just happened to have handy but it makes the point, the area under the curve is the geology part, how much is there. But the shape of the curve is a result of economics in all it's complexity—supply/demand, politics/fads, regulation/profit, etc. etc.


So when you overlap discoveries with production you see this instead:

Image


The top of Hubbert's peak was chopped off by higher prices instigated by the peak in the US and the formation of OPEC. How much higher price reduces consumption determines how much lower the peak, longer the plateau and or steeper the decline and shorter the tail. The "Full Hubbert" is still there, they can model it in 50 years maybe.

I've decided thinking rigidly about a geological limit to an economic process is wrongheaded and the reason my guesses are off. There really isn't a practical limit to the production rate of oil since there is nothing "practical" about wanting to spend 100s and 1,000s of times the energy to drive a 7,000# 4x4 F-250 to the QuilSac for a six-pac instead of walking at a well to wheel efficiency of maybe 10%.

So, the theoretical Full Hubert peak might well have been in 2015, 2005 or even 2000. My gut feeling is it is past and we are in the land of illogic because production is still rising
but that's just opinion
.
If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen we must live through all time or die by suicide.
-- Abraham Lincoln
User avatar
Pops
Moderator
Moderator
 
Posts: 17642
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 03:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby dolanbaker » Fri 29 Apr 2016, 18:46:33

ennui2 wrote:Considering that Cuba still has tons of 1950s style vehicles, if we get to the point where people can't afford the latest and greatest tablet or smart phone they can try to make do with current tech for longer than they do at present. That's already happening with desktop PCs.

Unfortunately, holding onto old kit can sometimes be really the wrong thing to do (from an energy conservation view), unless you can't update of course.
Those 1950's cars are real energy hogs, just like chargers that use transformers as opposed to switched mode power supplies.

I recently updated a PC motherboard and can go twice as fast while using half the power!

Sometimes, it's more cost effective to "chase the red queen"
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
User avatar
dolanbaker
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3454
Joined: Wed 14 Apr 2010, 09:38:47
Location: Éire

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby KilonBerlin » Mon 19 Dec 2016, 20:54:21

Man, reading that post in 2004... people were soo scared that Oil is running out. Especially in the Summer of 2008 when intraday the 147.50 US-$ per Barrel was reached. The €uro and other currencies were strong compared to the Dollar, so it did not hurt us sooo hard like the US, I remember the USA, the "Big Inch" was build, a huge pipeline from the Gulf of Mexico, the large giant Texas oil field, I think the largest conventional oil field in the Lower 48?

German submarines sunk 607 oil tankers, I don't know if it was on their way from the Gulf to the New York Area or the total, but I guess only there, easy targets, to New York Area where very large petrochemical plants were already existing. I'm no American so I do not know the map that well, but Pennsylvania is a quite large, almost quadratic state bordering New York or? The first oil came from there I think, Ohio, Pennsylvania...

In 1942 the US Commanders were afraid the US oil could run out (!), in 2008 when prices were crazy high the stocks in the US, Europe and even China/India/Brazil were as high as never before, and you have to add the many tankers.

Now Peak Oil became Peak Demand... I like this saying, in German its like "The bronze age did not end because there was no bronze left, the Copper Age was not...." and the same with stone age and what "ages" there have been.

This is the "fear" of the OPEC, that they will sit on huge amounts of oil nobody wants to buy except for an very low price, but they are "lazy", money through oil and natural gas and everything is fine. Trying to create other large potential industry?! No...

Now with all the new unconventional oil (Shale Oil, Oil Sand, a little bit South-African "Hydrierwerke" like Hitler used them, in South Africa they also use the Fischer-Tropsch-Synthese afaik. Coal is being put into a gas and than into all oil fuels. In Europe or even China they can not (or in China they do not want, since it is really not soo clear, the Nazis needed a 7 tons mix for 1 ton of oil products, I think lignite ("Brown coal", worst in terms of Energy Density) and "stone coal" mixed, the South African have enough of the high quality coal so I think it is more like 4 tons for 1 or so but still a "dirty" thing.

Would be interesting for me how US buyers "react", since almost nowhere else the price of the oil is being felt soo heavy like in the US, today gasoline is cheap and was even cheaper for many months or since 2014... but do they care how much mpg the car has? and if yes, how important is it... Only the Hummer (CSI Miami of course got money for showing the Hummer in every episode many times, but it is even for US prices hard to pay the fuel refillings, in Germany only a few "USA"- and "Humvee/Hummer"-Lover drive it but all I saw when I took a short check for buying used Hummer, they all were upgraded to a 180 liter LPG tank for around ~500 Kilometer (~310 miles), but the LPG has a ~30% lower energy density and the price is really much much cheaper per liter... it is not soo common, but gasoline official use for C2 Model is 23 liters/100km mixed, and if they say 23 it is 27 or so...so you have ~35 liters of LPG use...

I do not understand why the Ford F-150 Series is so popular, but okay, maybe it is good. In the US you are nothing without a driver license and a car...
KilonBerlin
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 15
Joined: Sun 11 Dec 2016, 20:15:23

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 19 Dec 2016, 21:55:56

That's another opinion. Very fresh. Very new. Brilliant.
Haven't you heard? I'm a doomer!
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 26058
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: The Domino Effect; Post Peak-Oil

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 20 Dec 2016, 11:18:54

Pops wrote:I've decided thinking rigidly about a geological limit to an economic process is wrongheaded and the reason my guesses are off.


Geologic estimates of TRR are the problem, said estimates not being a geologic limit, but a geologists interpretation of how future technology and price will interact with a far larger number, that of the in-place volumes. The EIA, primarily a statistical and analytic organization with bunches of economists, apparently knows this one very well, which might explain why they didn't fall for all the peak oil huppla a decade back.

Geologic estimates of in place matter, but geologists aren't usually the ones whom you ask improved technology and economic questions of . The engineers and economists are in-tune with how "technically recoverable" can change, and why an initial estimate of 10 barrels can become 100, or 1000. And the EIA does as well it appears.

Figure 1 being most apropos.

https://www.eia.gov/workingpapers/pdf/trr.pdf
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 2733
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 16:10:26

PreviousNext

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Subjectivist and 41 guests