Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE Dollar Crash Thread pt 2

For discussions of events and conditions not necessarily related to Peak Oil.

Re: The Dollar Crash Thread

Unread postby mattduke » Thu 12 May 2011, 23:02:49

User avatar
mattduke
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3591
Joined: Fri 28 Oct 2005, 03:00:00

Re: The Dollar Crash Thread

Unread postby mattduke » Tue 17 May 2011, 22:58:48

RBZ urges gold-backed Zim dollar
THE central bank says the country must consider adopting a gold-backed Zimbabwean dollar warning that the US greenback’s days as the world’s reserve currency are numbered.

http://www.newzimbabwe.com/business-512 ... iness.aspx
User avatar
mattduke
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3591
Joined: Fri 28 Oct 2005, 03:00:00

Re: The Dollar Crash Thread

Unread postby lowem » Thu 19 May 2011, 10:43:34

Now that would really be a 180-degree turn around.

In other news, USDX is on the way to becoming overbought and hitting some resistance at 76.
Live quotes - oil/gold/silver
User avatar
lowem
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 1901
Joined: Mon 19 Jul 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Singapore

Re: The Dollar Crash Thread

Unread postby mattduke » Thu 26 May 2011, 18:12:36

The United Nations warned on Wednesday of a possible crisis of confidence in, and even a “collapse” of, the U.S. dollar if its value against other currencies continued to decline.

Not that I care what the UN says...
http://business.financialpost.com/2011/ ... -s-dollar/
User avatar
mattduke
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3591
Joined: Fri 28 Oct 2005, 03:00:00

Re: The Dollar Crash Thread pt 2

Unread postby mattduke » Sat 28 May 2011, 13:05:57

Less banger for your buck: The Memorial Day BBQ will cost you 29% more this year thanks to inflation
One sausage or two?
You may be lucky to get half at this weekend's Memorial Day cookout, which is set to cost 29 per cent more than last year, thanks to inflation.
Those thinking of hosting a BBQ - even a modest one - can expect to fork out an extra $45 on food to serve a dozen guests.
The total cost comes to $199, or around 29 per cent more than last year... and that's before soda and alcohol, according to the latest data for metro New York.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... ation.html
User avatar
mattduke
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3591
Joined: Fri 28 Oct 2005, 03:00:00

Re: The Dollar Crash Thread pt 2

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sat 28 May 2011, 14:23:49

mattduke wrote:Less banger for your buck: The Memorial Day BBQ will cost you 29% more this year thanks to inflation


SHHHHH!!!! We're still selling the story that inflation is 2%.

Bob whining about everything being more expensive for his bbq is NOT a good thing.
Yes we are, as we are,
And so shall we remain,
Until the end.
AgentR11
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6357
Joined: Tue 22 Mar 2011, 09:15:51
Location: East Texas

Re: The Dollar Crash Thread pt 2

Unread postby mattduke » Mon 06 Jun 2011, 21:34:42

Bond Risk Highest Since Eisenhower as Geithner Favors Longer-Maturity Debt
The risk of owning U.S. government debt is as great as any time since the 1950s with yields at the year’s lows and Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner locking in borrowing costs by selling longer-term securities.
Yields on Treasuries would only need to rise 0.3 percentage point over one year on average from 1.67 percent to produce a loss, based on the benchmark Barclays Treasury index, a study by Los Angeles-based First Pacific Advisors shows. The last time bonds were close to this level was in March 2009, when a 0.43 percentage point rise in yields would have left holders of comparable maturity five-year Treasuries with losses.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-0 ... -debt.html
User avatar
mattduke
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3591
Joined: Fri 28 Oct 2005, 03:00:00

Re: The Dollar Crash Thread pt 2

Unread postby mattduke » Mon 06 Jun 2011, 21:35:52

Yuan expected to become major world currency
Chinese policy makers are moving toward the internationalization of the yuan, amid growing worries about the country’s exposure to the fiscal woes of the United States and the U.S. dollar’s role as the global reserve currency.

Li Daokui, an adviser to the People’s Bank of China, told The Globe and Mail that he believes the yuan – which is currently in circulation only in China and a handful of neighbouring countries under special agreements – will be a fully international currency within five to 10 years.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-o ... le2046868/
User avatar
mattduke
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3591
Joined: Fri 28 Oct 2005, 03:00:00

Re: The Dollar Crash Thread pt 2

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Mon 06 Jun 2011, 23:35:31

August 2 is the drop dead date for the dollar. If the GOP doesn't raise the debt limit, you'll get your dollar crash all right. And if they don't raise taxes (or eliminate medicare and social security) it'll crash a bit later.
User avatar
PrestonSturges
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6052
Joined: Wed 15 Oct 2008, 03:00:00

Re: The Dollar Crash Thread pt 2

Unread postby mattduke » Sun 12 Jun 2011, 23:09:20

China ratings house says US defaulting
A CHINESE ratings house has accused the United States of defaulting on its massive debt, state media said on Friday, a day after Beijing urged Washington to put its fiscal house in order.

'In our opinion, the United States has already been defaulting,' Guan Jianzhong, president of Dagong Global Credit Rating Co Ltd, the only Chinese agency that gives sovereign ratings, was quoted by the Global Times saying.

Washington had already defaulted on its loans by allowing the dollar to weaken against other currencies - eroding the wealth of creditors including China, Mr Guan said.

http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNew ... 78361.html
User avatar
mattduke
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3591
Joined: Fri 28 Oct 2005, 03:00:00

Re: The Dollar Crash Thread pt 2

Unread postby bratticus » Mon 13 Jun 2011, 07:48:04

mattduke wrote:China ratings house says US defaulting
A CHINESE ratings house has accused the United States of defaulting on its massive debt, state media said on Friday, a day after Beijing urged Washington to put its fiscal house in order.

'In our opinion, the United States has already been defaulting,' Guan Jianzhong, president of Dagong Global Credit Rating Co Ltd, the only Chinese agency that gives sovereign ratings, was quoted by the Global Times saying.

Washington had already defaulted on its loans by allowing the dollar to weaken against other currencies - eroding the wealth of creditors including China, Mr Guan said.

http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNew ... 78361.html


HAHAHAHA! China accuses anyone else of devaluing their currency? After they have done everything in their power to keep the yuan devalued? They are just spoil-sports about having to play with someone who started using their own dirty tricks.
User avatar
bratticus
Permanently Banned
 
Posts: 2368
Joined: Thu 12 Jun 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Bratislava

Re: The Dollar Crash Thread pt 2

Unread postby Fishman » Mon 13 Jun 2011, 10:37:31

Correction
August 2 is the drop dead date for the dollar(probably not). If the Dems doesn't cut the spending, you'll get your dollar crash all right. And if they don't trim entitlements now it will be the end of medicare and social security anyway. Do you think the Chinese give a rat's asp about our elderly of sick?

Thanks poster, I can count on your pro unicorn spewing skittles and money from their backside view to help clarify reality.
Obama, the FUBAR presidency gets scraped off the boot
User avatar
Fishman
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2137
Joined: Thu 11 Aug 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Carolina de Norte

Re: The Dollar Crash Thread pt 2

Unread postby AgentR11 » Mon 13 Jun 2011, 13:23:55

bratticus wrote:HAHAHAHA! China accuses anyone else of devaluing their currency? After they have done everything in their power to keep the yuan devalued? They are just spoil-sports about having to play with someone who started using their own dirty tricks.


You do kinda have a point there. Pretty humorous too.

The question becomes, does China try to fight appreciation, or do they accept the inevitable and try to preserve what value they have already acquired. Fighting means they have to keep financing the US deficit; preservation means they have to gut their ability to export to the US. No wonder they are upset. *(yall put us in this spot and you still have the nerve to drive military ships all over our local seas??)" lol.

I wonder if they were thinking they could string this out until the US ceased to be able to manufacture stuff, and then we'd be forced to buy high priced Chinese stuff because we couldn't make it here.

Definitely "interesting times..".
Yes we are, as we are,
And so shall we remain,
Until the end.
AgentR11
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6357
Joined: Tue 22 Mar 2011, 09:15:51
Location: East Texas

Re: The Dollar Crash Thread pt 2

Unread postby mattduke » Sat 18 Jun 2011, 22:03:24

Russia to Lower U.S. Debt Holdings
Russia will likely continue lowering its U.S. debt holdings as Washington struggles to contain a budget deficit and bolster a tepid economic recovery, a top aide to President Dmitry Medvedev said Saturday.

"The share of our portfolio in U.S. instruments has gone down and probably will go down further," said Arkady Dvorkovich, chief economic aide to the president, told Dow Jones in an interview on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.

Russian holdings of U.S. Treasury securities fell to $125.4 billion in April 2011 from $176.3 billion in October 2010, Treasury Department data showed.

Russia reduced holdings 29%.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 58930.html
User avatar
mattduke
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3591
Joined: Fri 28 Oct 2005, 03:00:00

Re: The Dollar Crash Thread pt 2

Unread postby Daniel_Plainview » Sat 18 Jun 2011, 23:53:18

mattduke wrote:Russia to Lower U.S. Debt Holdings
Russia will likely continue lowering its U.S. debt holdings as Washington struggles to contain a budget deficit and bolster a tepid economic recovery, a top aide to President Dmitry Medvedev said Saturday.

"The share of our portfolio in U.S. instruments has gone down and probably will go down further," said Arkady Dvorkovich, chief economic aide to the president, told Dow Jones in an interview on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.

Russian holdings of U.S. Treasury securities fell to $125.4 billion in April 2011 from $176.3 billion in October 2010, Treasury Department data showed.

Russia reduced holdings 29%.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 58930.html


Hmmm. China is reducing its holdings. Japan is reducing its holdings. Russia is reducing its holdings.

So who's buying US Treasuries? Oh, yeah, it's the Federal Reserve! As the Fed buys increasingly more US Treasuries, other nations are decreasing their holdings. This will not have a happy ending.

Image

Given the current trend, the Fed must either (1) increase interest rates; or (2) force the US to become a full-time money-printing banana republic. The Fed will not raise rates, so that leaves one option.
User avatar
Daniel_Plainview
Prognosticator
Prognosticator
 
Posts: 4220
Joined: Tue 06 May 2008, 03:00:00
Location: 7035 Hollis ... Near the Observatory ... Just down the way, tucked back in the small woods

Re: The Dollar Crash Thread pt 2

Unread postby mattduke » Wed 22 Jun 2011, 20:22:43

Federal Debt to Hit 70% of GDP This Year
U.S. debt is forecast to soar to 70% of the country's annual economic output -- the highest share since shortly after the end of World War II -- by the end of this year, according to a report by the Congressional Budget Office.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/industries/2 ... it-70-gdp/
User avatar
mattduke
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3591
Joined: Fri 28 Oct 2005, 03:00:00

Re: The Dollar Crash Thread pt 2

Unread postby GoIllini » Thu 23 Jun 2011, 15:13:03

People are being too gloomy here. If you don't trust the USD, fine, but where do you put your money then?

-We are swimming in natural gas and oil demand isn't materializing like we thought it would. Most likely, we will develop fusion technology before we run out in 30-40 years.

-The velocity of money is contracting in the US and Europe due to heavier banking regulations. That's a huge factor when it comes to inflation, and despite QE1/QE2/QE3, we're still undergoing one of the largest monetary contractions in 60 years.

-The Euro is in trouble; not so much with the USD.

-For farmland investments the real question is "how many people can afford food?" rather than "How many people are there on the planet?" Obviously from what is happening in Egypt, Libya, and Syria, a good portion of the world cannot afford food.

-The buffoons on Capitol Hill can only figure out whether the FDIC survives, not the value of the dollar. Even in the most bearish circumstances, currencies without a government have continued to be the default currency without an organized replacement most of the time. CC: Kurdistan. The value of the dollar is up to the federal reserve, and with the contraction in the velocity of money, fixing deflation with QE is going to be like chopping wood using a plastic knife. Instead, they need to go out, start buying gold and silver, and adding to the money supply rather than holding down long-term interest rates.

-The dollar is in a bear market rally. There's a lot of slack with energy production even down at $90 oil. We could easily retrace back to $70 for an extended period. If we get down to $60, we might see a few dividend cuts coming from the XOI. I say this as a guy with 30% of his portfolio in energy stocks.

-It's a tale of two economies; one for educated in-demand professionals like quants, engineers, and programmers; one for everyone else. That's why I'm thinking about buying stock in the owners of Dungeons and Dragons. Either that or San Fran real-estate. I honestly think cash isn't going to be the horrible investment over the next 2-3 year that people make it out to be, but I like 4% dividends more than 0.5% yield.
User avatar
GoIllini
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 765
Joined: Sat 05 Mar 2005, 04:00:00

Re: The Dollar Crash Thread pt 2

Unread postby mattduke » Wed 13 Jul 2011, 08:40:05

Dagong is likely to downgrade US rating
The US' sovereign credit rating is likely to be downgraded regardless of whether the US Congress reaches an agreement on raising its statutory debt limit, Chinese rating agency, Dagong Global Rating Co Ltd, said on Monday.
"If the debt limit is raised and the public debt continues to grow, it will further damage the US' debt-paying ability, which is a key factor in Dagong's evaluation, and we will consider lowering its ratings accordingly," said Guan Jianzhong, chairman and CEO of Dagong.
"If the raised limit fails to pass and the US faces default, the rating will be immediately and substantially downgraded," he said.
According to Guan, the downgrading is really just "a matter of time and extent".

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/cndy/2011- ... 889286.htm
User avatar
mattduke
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3591
Joined: Fri 28 Oct 2005, 03:00:00

Re: The Dollar Crash Thread pt 2

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 13 Jul 2011, 12:01:10

Interesting calculation.

A Falling Dollar Pushes Exports, Draws Risks
In a what-if scenario run for The Wall Street Journal, IHS Global Insight examined the likely effects of a further sharp drop in the dollar.

The firm's current forecast assumes the value of the dollar will be roughly flat over the next several years. If, however, the dollar fell by an additional 20% over the next eight quarters, the IHS model shows that exports in 2015 would be 12% higher than otherwise predicted. Unemployment would be 5.3%, compared with 6.7% under the steady-dollar assumption. Consumer price inflation would be 3.3% in 2015, compared with 2%.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
User avatar
copious.abundance
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9589
Joined: Wed 26 Mar 2008, 03:00:00
Location: Cornucopia

PreviousNext

Return to Geopolitics & Global Economics

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests