coyote wrote:It's nice to have you around again, Dantes.
I don't pay much attention to what Yergin says since reading his famous mischaracterization of peak oil as "not the first time the world has been running out of oil." He knows better than to paint the theory that way, which makes me wonder what kind of axe he's got to grind. IIRC, though, he does have a tendency to come out with these little statements at the beginnings of bull runs.
Plantagenet wrote:"My firm, IHS CERA, projects that with aggressive sales volumes and no major bumps in the road (unusual for new technologies), plug-in hybrids and pure electric vehicles could constitute 25% of new car sales by 2030." --Yergin
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That seems very pessimistic to me. Hybrids are very popular and the technology works. If oil prices go higher I would think hybrids and electric vehicles should be 25-75% or more of the market by another 10 years or so.
mcgowanjm wrote: And then who can spend the $1000's on replacing the battery every couple of years.
Plantagenet wrote:"My firm, IHS CERA, projects that with aggressive sales volumes and no major bumps in the road (unusual for new technologies), plug-in hybrids and pure electric vehicles could constitute 25% of new car sales by 2030." --Yergin
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That seems very pessimistic to me. Hybrids are very popular and the technology works. If oil prices go higher I would think hybrids and electric vehicles should be 25-75% or more of the market by another 10 years or so.
Rare earth metals like neodymium, lanthium, and terbium are used in magnets for electric motors, hybrid car batteries, and even wind turbines. The Prius is the biggest user of rare earth metals in the world, with each motor using 2.2 pounds of neodymium and every battery housing 22 to 33 pounds of lanthium. As production of the Prius and other hybrid cars begins to swell in the next few years, manufacturers might find themselves without the elements needed to switch us to an electric vehicle economy. In the coming years, supply is expected to surpass demand of rare earth metals by 40,000 tons.
emersonbiggins wrote:Time to brush the dust off an old goodie:
A contrarian indicator if I ever saw one.
Clearly, Yergin's article is bullish for oil.
I'm sitting tight with the usual 'roughly' 50-50 split between FSESX (energy service) and FSNGX (NATGAS).
70% down seems about right. My FSESX and FSNGX are down a little more than that, I suspect. Strange to watch the equivalent of a parking lot full of new Harley's vaporize in a few months.
dissident wrote:Attacking Simmons for his predictions is really rich. I guess Simmons failed to predict the September 2008 financial crash and the current recession so that means that he knows nothing about oil production.
CERA forecasts for conventional oil (Crude Oil + Condensate?) and all liquids, believed to be productive capacities (i.e. actual production + spare capacity). The numbers have been derived from Figure 1 in Dave's response to CERA.
Forecast Date 2006 2008 2009 2010 2015
CERA1 2006 89.52 93.75 95.34 97.24 104.54
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