THE Crude Oil Price Watch Thread

[ampere]

If Oil and energy stocks are going to bounce from oversold levels then they should do so very soon...

http://www.themoneyblogs.com/researchla ... rally.html

[greenworm]

Here are a couple of thoughts:

Why it is going down:

1) Inventories are building and should be pretty solid throughout winter and begin to tailor off as we approach the prez elections.
2)Hurricane season was a flop. I called it and it will continue to flop.


Why it is going up:

1)This is the true bottom when viewed by the perspective of $15 fear premium, however, remember inventory builds.

2)Good ol' fear. What is Monday? National fear day. Plus, who knows what the media could drum up, investors seem to be completely ignoring the Iran situation as I think most of them realize that it isn't much of a situation at all until ya hear the ka-B00MY.

[clueless]

Once the first frost hits.

[chase11209]

Oil prices hit a record last summer & then as many geopolitical issues subdued a bit, energy markets took a major hit. Now however it looks like a great time for energy bulls again:
http://www.letsgobble.com/

[alokin]

I was never interested in economy, hence I didn't watch oil prices at all. As I really realized the peak oil topic some month ago I really watch them daily.
What I see is that they are going up and down with each announcement, refinery repair and so on.
Is this what it was before or is this a reaction of oil getting scarcer?
The price was up to 93 now it's under 90 and all within a week or so.
It all seems to me quite nervous, but maybe it's like markets behave (or people dragging big sums around).

I know that the dollar plays a big role.

[seldom_seen]

Is this what it was before or is this a reaction of oil getting scarcer?

Volatility is the name of the game from here on out.

Think of oil prices like your uncle Roger the accountant. Up until a few years ago he was always so predictable and so boring. The cardigan sweater, the loafers. The excel spreadsheets. You would start to get drowsy just by looking at him as he organized his stamp collection.

Then, he started dating the stripper, and eating lots of magic mushrooms. He would do whippets all day, with a bottle of Jack Daniels in his hand. He was now more fun and exciting, but he kind of scared the sh*t out of you.

That's oil prices now. They've gone crazy.

[Transient]

Love the analogy, very funny

Yeah, I find myself checking every day and waiting for the crisis to unfold, not hoping for it mind you.

[eastbay]

Welcome.

As I really realized the peak oil topic some month ago I really watch them daily.

This will soon change. Checking oil prices hourly will soon bore you.

Shortly you will be watching oil prices minute by minute like the rest of us here.

[alokin]

look at this:

hope I got the link right, but it#s about oil price above $95.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home
[web]http://[/web]

I have a slight impression that all these guys gone mad, one day they say inventories are high the other low, and nobody knows the output.
I know too little about oil business but it seems to attract more adventurous people rather than cool calculators?

[darren]

Shortly you will be watching oil prices minute by minute like the rest of us here.

Imagine your Econ 101 supply and demand graph.
In the old days the supply curve was pretty flat: "don't worry, if there are any problems we'll just turn the taps a little wider to keep prices wherever we want them to be"

Now imagine a vertical supply curve.... (ie no matter how high the price goes, there simply won't be any more production coming out, at least not in the short run, and probably never).
*Every* shift in the demand curve is cleared via price changes, not quantity changes.
Every little problem in supply (and in a chaotic world there are always problems) manifests as an inward shift of supply... because nobody is in a position to take up the slack anymore.

Thus... volatility.

Speculators are often labelled the "cause" of this volitility... not really.... they are just reacting to it.

[OilFinder2]

--> LINK <--

Early data suggest U.S. oil demand in the first quarter fell by nearly 475,000 barrels a day from a year ago. That would be the biggest decline in any quarter since the drop in the fourth quarter of 2001 that followed the 9-11 attacks.

But, analysts said, sliding U.S. demand doesn't necessarily mean oil prices are heading lower, because global demand is still strong.

Revised data from the Energy Information Administration show oil demand in January slumped 2.2 percent, or 445,000 barrels a day, from a year ago to 20.114 million barrels a day, the lowest level in any month since April 2005. The figure was a steep 574,000 barrels a day, or 2.8 percent, below the preliminary estimate for the month.

[emersonbiggins]

But we are NOT in a recession!

[joeltrout]

And crude jumped $2.40/bbl.

joeltrout

[BigTex]

What exactly are we doing less of?

It seems like a lot of our oil consumption is more or less fixed in the short term.

I did buy a more fuel efficient car last year. Maybe that's finally showing up in the numbers.

[auscanman]

--> LINK <--

Early data suggest U.S. oil demand in the first quarter fell by nearly 475,000 barrels a day from a year ago. That would be the biggest decline in any quarter since the drop in the fourth quarter of 2001 that followed the 9-11 attacks.

But, analysts said, sliding U.S. demand doesn't necessarily mean oil prices are heading lower, because global demand is still strong.

Revised data from the Energy Information Administration show oil demand in January slumped 2.2 percent, or 445,000 barrels a day, from a year ago to 20.114 million barrels a day, the lowest level in any month since April 2005. The figure was a steep 574,000 barrels a day, or 2.8 percent, below the preliminary estimate for the month.

And how much is oil consumption up in China, India, Iran, and the rest of the Middle East over the same period?

[Novus]

The US economy shed 200K jobs since the start of the year. That is 200k less people that are not driving 50 miles to work everyday.

[oilluber]

The US economy shed 200K jobs since the start of the year. That is 200k less people that are not driving 50 miles to work everyday.

this is good news, the US in contributing towards energy conservation. Now tell the chinese, the saudis to do the same !!!

[Tyler_JC]

The US economy shed 200K jobs since the start of the year. That is 200k less people that are not driving 50 miles to work everyday.

200,000 people driving 50 miles a day is 10,000,000 miles.

Assuming those miles are in a Hummer, that's a million gallons of fuel per day.

Or about 24,000 barrels of oil per day.

[Waterthrush]

People are switching around their cars. The monster pickup is parked - if it's visible from the street it can still function a bit to shore up its owner's confidence - but said owner is driving the econobox for most trips. I wonder how many will let their insurance lapse on the pickup, but will still leave it parked, undriveable, in hopes that someone will feel intimidated by a parked pickup truck.

[Chuckmak]

I did buy a more fuel efficient car last year.

Ditto.