[efarmer]

It is an amazing game Dearest BH (I hate calling you bonehead).
To manipulate price you have to be able to create and tighten up slack in the system. First it was producers, then refiners, and now it is the speculators and hedge funds that get to finagle the system. But eventually when production drops and stays below demand, the only hedge that works is a hoard, and you can't hoard with a fraction down for a future guaranteed price.

Soon, we will be able to move past being screwed by pricing due to arbitrary and manipulated factors and will be able to take solace in the fact that we are indeed screwed, fair and square, and paying out the nose for the privilege, and in addition, we shall all be hoping to avail ourselves of the honor as long as is possible.

Blissfully ignorant, marginally aware, taken advantage of, suffering legitimately, and finally denied satisfaction completely; it sure is a rosy little path to walk.

[threadbear]

Hedge fund managers must love this one,a lousy 300 lightly armed men cross over the border to try to tame PKK fighters who've been harassing them for some time now.Sanctioned by the U.S. and has nothing to do with oil and they drive the price of crude up another buck a barrel.I wish i could get in on this game,i'd be wishing for political tension in the ME every day.I guess i'll be paying another nickel a gallon for heating oil on my next fill-up.Wonderful world we live in,profit over someone else's problems!

Part of the premise of the movie, Syriana

[DantesPeak]

There's not much information on this, and no specific acts of sabatoge were blamed. However based upon recent optimistic announcements from the Oil Ministry, I would guess that sabatoge was involved.

1/2/08 World News Connection (Newswire) 14:01:06:
Al-Mashriq carries on page 7 a 200-word report citing an oil sources as announcing that oil exports from Kirkuk via Turkey has stopped.
Al-Mada carries on page 13 a 260-word report entitled "Oil Ministry Source: Pumping of Oil From Kirkuk to Cayhan Terminal Suspended."

[no link]

[RdSnt]

You don't think that perhaps the Iraqi's are a bit ticked that Turkey has invaded the country?

[DantesPeak]

You don't think that perhaps the Iraqi's are a bit ticked that Turkey has invaded the country?

That’s also possible. The Kurds specifically warned if Turkey invaded Iraq, they would cut off oil shipments through Turkey. I would not be surprised if they did, however I’ve seen no confirmation that, in this case, it's what is actually happening.

The Iraqi Oil Ministry even said recently that sabotage was usually the reason these shipments are halted.

[toast]

And like the US presence, I believe their stay is permanent. http://voanews.com/english/2008-02-22-voa10.cfm

[Cid_Yama]

The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, which is still ablaze after an explosion, may not reopen for another one to two weeks, a senior source at Turkey's state-owned pipeline company Botas told Reuters on Thursday.

Stocks at the Ceyhan depot, which had been used to keep the one million barrels per day (bpd) pipeline flowing have run dry, the source said, following the explosion on Tuesday night. "The stocks of crude oil from the BTC pipeline stored in Ceyhan have been exhausted," the Botas source said. Opened in 2006, the pipeline is the first to carry large volumes of Caspian crude without going through Russia.

The Botas source, who declined to be named, said the fire could take two more days to put out, while the repair of the pipeline would take one to two weeks. "The fire will continue longer than (previously) anticipated," the Botas source said. "The method for fighting the fire is being discussed with the BTC management. Depending on the method used, the opening of the line may take one or two weeks," he added, without providing more details.

Kurdish separatists claimed responsibility for the blast which caused the blaze and helped to push oil prices higher. British oil company BP Plc, a pipeline shareholder, said the BTC partners had declared force majeure on exports, freeing themselves from contractual obligations. The $4 billion BTC pipeline pumps the equivalent of more than 1 percent of world supply from fields in the Azeri sector of the Caspian Sea to Ceyhan on the Turkish Mediterranean coast.
[url=http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?xfile=data/business/2008/August/business_August253.xml§ion=business&col=]link[/url]

[DantesPeak]

Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline Shutdown Could Last 5 Wks -Botas DOW JONES NEWSWIRES August 7, 2008 5:49 a.m.

LONDON (Dow Jones)--The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline could be shut down for up to five weeks following a fire Wednesday, a Botas International Ltd. spokesman said Thursday. "It will be shut down for a minimum of two weeks but (the shutdown) could last five weeks," the BIL spokesman said.

Botas operates the Turkish part of BTC, where the fire took place. U.K. oil giant BP PLC (BP) is in charge of the overall pipeline.

BTC transports on average 850,000 barrels a day of oil and condensates from Azerbaijani fields operated by BP and other companies to the Mediterranean terminal of Ceyhan in Turkey. A five-week shutdown would mean 30 million barrels not reaching the markets through BTC.

BP is set to be hurt financially by the shutdown both as the operator of BTC and as its client. It had to reduce output from its Azerbaijani fields and is diverting some of it to Russian routes.

WSJ

[FoxV]

It was only a matter of time before this happened. The BTC is so long and remote it is effectively indefensible.

If the Kurds, Al-Queda, Revolutionary Guard or a group of angry sheep herders wanted to they could keep the BTC offline forever.

Man are the Russian ever going to enjoy it when Obama has to come crawling to them to reroute the BTC to the black sea. For many reasons I really feel sorry for the man

[DantesPeak]

The fire still has not been put out, making those claims on Friday that the pipeline will be fixed within 10 days rather doubtful - to say the least.

Pipeline Fire
BP, StatoilHydro ASA and other partners reduced crude production at the Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli and Shah Deniz fields in the Azeri part of the Caspian Sea on Aug. 8 after a fire on the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline.
The fire in eastern Turkey is still burning, although flames are subsiding, Ebru Akdogan, a spokeswoman for Baku- Tbilisi-Ceyhan Co., said by phone today. She was unable to say when it will be put out and didn't have an estimate for how long repairs will take.

"We will need to extinguish the fire first and then we can see the damage,'' Akdogan said. Last Updated: 10 Aug 2008

Bloomberg

[DantesPeak]

12 days after the pipeline 'fire', the amount of time needed to make repairs is now uncertain. Initial cliams were that it could be fixed in 10 days (by August 15).

The reopening of BTC pipeline remains unclear as repair continues

The examinations of the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan (BTC) are underway to establish how long the repairs would take as the explosion on the Turkish side of the line and Georgia-Russia conflict raised doubts over the safety of the key energy route.

"We don't know the extent of the damage and can't say whether the assessment will finish in a couple of days or not," she said.

Turkey's Energy Ministry expects the BTC pipeline, which can carry 1 million barrels a day, to resume operations in a week, a spokesman earlier said.

Shippers declared force majeure on exports from the Supsa and Ceyhan ports, a legal clause that exempts them from meeting contracted deliveries because of circumstances beyond their control.

Hot News Turkey

[DantesPeak]

Azerbaijan to start shipping oil to Iran (see link).

BP-Led Oil Pipeline to Resume Shipments Next Week

By Eduard Gismatullin and Ayla Jean Yackley

Aug. 20 (Bloomberg) -- The BP Plc-led Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which transports oil from Azerbaijan through Georgia to Turkey's Mediterranean coast, will resume tanker loadings next week following fire damage earlier this month.

BP, Europe's second-largest oil company, and other exporters of Azeri oil have been unable to use the 1,768- kilometer (1,100-mile) link since Aug. 5 when a blaze engulfed the pipeline in Erzincan province in northeastern Turkey.

BP, StatoilHydro ASA and partners had to reduce production at oil fields in the Azeri part of the Caspian Sea after flows halted through the pipeline, which has a capacity of 1 million barrels a day, about 1 percent of the world's supply. The military conflict in Georgia also highlighted risks for crude oil and natural gas transportation across the Caucasus.

BTC Co., which operates the link, will start ``testing of the line today before a move to full operation,'' the Turkey- based company said in an e-mailed statement. ``This will involve some limited and intermittent flow of oil through the pipeline.''

Shipping Schedule

A statement was sent to transporters so that ``the shipping schedule can be updated today for loadings to begin next week,'' Murat Lecompte, external affairs director for BTC, said in a telephone interview. Repairs are completed and exporters will be putting oil into the pipeline, while the testing will take a few days to complete, he said.

Another pipeline, which pumps 100,000 barrels of crude a day from the Azeri capital of Baku to the Georgian port of Supsa, has been shut on security concerns because of the fighting in Georgia. Shippers declared force majeure on exports from the Supsa and Ceyhan ports, a legal clause that exempts them from meeting contracts because of circumstances beyond their control.

Last Updated: August 20, 2008 08:32 EDT

Bloomberg

[DantesPeak]

BP says Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan to start integrity testing Wednesday

Istanbul (Platts)--20Aug2008

Dynamic integrity testing on the 1 million b/d Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan crude pipeline, which has been closed for two weeks following an explosion, will begin later Wednesday, Murat Lecompte, a spokesman for BP Turkey, said Wednesday.

"The testing is the last stage before full pipeline operation," Lecompte said, adding that the final decision when to restart operations of BTC would depend on the results of the testing.

A BTC source told Platts the dynamic integrity testing would involve "some limited and intermittent flow of oil through the pipeline."

"For ship scheduling purposes, the lifting program at Ceyhan will be updated today to start loadings from the beginning of next week," the source said.

Lecompte said BP expected flows in the line to be restarted and for the line to have been refilled within the next few days, allowing for loading at the pipeline's terminal at Ceyhan to be restarted early next week.

However, he said he had no information on the status of production at either the Azeri-Chirag-Gunesli fields, which supply the bulk of throughput in BTC, or the Shah Deniz gas field, which also produces condensates for the BTC line. Both ACG and Shah Deniz were ramped down following the closure of BTC.

Platts

[DantesPeak]

BP Says Tankers to Resume Loadings Tomorrow From BTC (Update2) By Ayla Jean Yackley and Ladane Nasseri

Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Tankers will begin loading oil tomorrow from the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline for the first time since a fire affected the main outlet for Azeri crude to U.S. and European markets almost three weeks ago.

"The first tanker will dock after midnight tonight,'' said Murat Lecompte, an Istanbul-based spokesman for BP Plc, the main operator of the BTC link. "Loadings have not actually started yet,'' he said, revising an earlier statement from BP saying tankers were being loaded today.

Tomorrow's start to loadings follows repairs and testing after the pipe was closed on Aug. 5 when an explosion sparked a blaze on the 1,768-kilometer (1,100-mile) pipeline. The BTC carries as much as 1 million barrels of Azeri crude each day through Georgia to Turkey's Mediterranean coast.

The first tanker will take up to 15 hours to fill, depending on its size, Lecompte said in a phone interview. An average of two tankers are loaded daily when oil flows at normal levels.

"Flows will increase throughout the day today,'' Lecompte said.
"Maximum rates will be reached overnight.''

Bloomberg

[dissident]

We were told by the media, parroting Saakashvili, that the BTC was bombed on Georgian territory. NATO punditry was and is still claiming Russia wants to control the BTC even though it never set foot in that part of Georgia.

Perhaps NATO should worry more about a military confrontation with Russia over the two buffer zones around Abkhazia (Poti-Senaki) and around South Ossetia (starting just north of Gori). In this case it will lose more than the fictional 1 million barrels per day through the BTC. It will lose the real 7 million barrels per day of Russian oil exports and 165 bcm per year of natural gas.

[Keith_McClary]

old news

needs to be unstuck

[DantesPeak]

BP to shut Baku-Ceyhan for 2-3 days end Sept-source
Tue Sep 9, 2008 4:41pm BST

BAKU, Sept 9 (Reuters) - BP (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research) will halt the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline for two to three days in late September for minor maintenance, a source at Azeri national oil company SOCAR said on Tuesday.

The work will include checks on valves like the one that caused a fire last month, halting the pipeline for 20 days, the source said. The pipeline's current capacity is 900,000-950,000 barrels per day, or about 1 percent of world supply.

The stoppage will not affect output from the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli oilfield, the main source of oil for the Baku-Ceyhan line, the source said.

Reuters

[DantesPeak]

SEPTEMBER 23, 2008, 7:46 A.M. ET Force Majeure On Some BTC Azeri Oil Exports - Co Source

LONDON (Dow Jones)--State Oil Company of Azerbaijan has declared force majeure on some shipments of Azeri crude from the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline following partial shutdown of a large oil field in Azerbaijan, a source at the state oil company told Dow Jones Newswires Tuesday.

"We declared force majeure to our clients, which may lead to certain delays in fulfilling the contracts," the source at SOCAR said, the declaration would legally protect the company from some of its contractual obligations to buyers. "This is not a global force majeure," the person added.

However, a spokesperson for SOCAR denied the move, and a BP PLC (BP) spokesman in Azerbaijan said the company wasn't aware of any declaration of force majeure on shipments.

Two platforms on the Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli field were shutdown last week, cutting output from 850,000 barrels of oil a day to 350,000 barrels a day. All personnel were evacuated from the West Azeri platform last week when a gas leak was detected nearby. The Central Azeri platform was evacuated as a precaution.

BP is the ACG field operator with a 34.1% stake. Other shareholders include Chevron Corp. (CVX) with 10.2%, SOCAR with 10%, INPEX with 10%, StatoilHydro ASA (STO) with 8.6% and Exxon Mobil Corp.(XOM) with 8%.

Company Web site: http://www.bp.com

WSJ

[AirlinePilot]

By Mark Bentley and Ali Berat Meric
Nov. 6 (Bloomberg) -- An explosion late yesterday halted oil supplies through a pipeline connecting Turkey with oil fields in northern Iraq. The blast, which occurred around 10 p.m. near the Turkish city of Sanliurfa, resulted in a sudden loss of pressure on the pipeline, according to a spokesman for the state-run pipeline company Botas. He declined to say whether a bomb may have caused the blast.

Botas officials are at the scene of the explosion to inspect damage, the spokesman said. Oil has spilled over a wide area and entered waters below the nearby Ataturk dam, he added. The pipeline connects the northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk with the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan in Turkey.

Separatist militants in the mainly Kurdish region claimed responsibility for the bombing of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline in August. "
Bloomberg pipeline explosion

[bratticus]

too bad http://www.iags.org/iraqpipelinewatch.htm is dormant (or dead)