[ralfy]

They consider the current low oil prices as proof of the unimportance of PO ignoring the simple fact that the low prices will increase consumption and accelerate depletion while killing much of the incentive to find new reserves.

You could easily move the needle back to the 90s when that famous magazine article was posted about us drowning in oil and talk about how terrible it was that we were pissing away our bounty. Or go back to the post WWII boom of big cars with tailfins. When it comes to level of importance, people need to feel a clear and present danger. They aren't moved by the idea of conservation during times of plenty no matter how short-lived such times may turn out to be.

The "times of plenty" ended some time ago. That's why prices not just for oil but for various commodities went down as production costs continued to rise.

[ennui2]

The "times of plenty" ended some time ago.

While it's true we don't have cars with tailfins anymore, there's still tons of profligate consumption going on.

[dashster]

This book is now scheduled for publication on July 31, 2016, which is one year after the original publication date that Amazon advertised.

[JimBof]

Just remember :- The more gluts we have the sooner we will run out. People tend to waste more when there is a glut.

[ROCKMAN]

IMHO a great line atributed to Art Berman: “Shale is not a revolution–it’s a retirement party. Shale plays were not some great new idea. They became important only as more attractive plays were exhausted.”

[sparky]

.
While Saudi Energy Minister Khaled Al-Faleh state that the market was heading toward balance ,
price have been rather limp
it seems that while production is easing , demand is hardly rosy
the IEA see some better future around next year but are not exactly sanguine about it
as for the poor Saudi minister , he has been singing the balance song for a while now
I guess some day he will be right !

meanwhile on the tank farm , the levels are high , and will stay that way until the end of the 3trd quarter , at least

[ennui2]

ennui, isn't it time you piped up and screamed out at the top of your lungs . . . this is a GLUT!!!!!!

Satisfied now?

[Lore]

Isn't that the evil James T. Kirk?

[ennui2]

Isn't that the evil James T. Kirk?

[ennui2]

I actually don't believe a "coming oil flood". I believe in a middle-of-the-road scenario of oil-depletion occurring simultaneously with substitution, hence avoiding Mad Max scenarios. So unlike ETP I think oil prices will go back up, but gradually, which is what official sources predict.

Unfortunately on the internet being middle-of-the-road is too dull. Extremists tend to dominate the discussion both ways. And to be fair, Adam is much more of a corny in his outlook than I am. I think oil prices will eventually apply pressure to consumers, but in a gradual enough way as to cause a relatively pain-free adaptation to things like EVs and telecommuting. Whether NASCAR workers get laid off or not (as Monte feared) I don't give a rat's ass.

Now if you want to mock or LOL at my peak-oil-moderate position, go right ahead, but as I've said many times, the truth tends to lie between two extremes.

[ennui2]

It's inside my $2.20/gal tank.

[AdamB]

Just remember :- The more gluts we have the sooner we will run out. People tend to waste more when there is a glut.

Glut is the difference between demand and supply, not just supply. We could have a glut of oil if we produced only 1 million barrels a day globally, yet demanded only 0.75 million. So no, glut is not a measure of only supply.

[AdamB]

IMHO a great line atributed to Art Berman: “Shale is not a revolution–it’s a retirement party. Shale plays were not some great new idea. They became important only as more attractive plays were exhausted.”

From someone with a compromised view of the history of the oil industry, if he doesn't know that, he isn't really capable of discussing its future, or retirement.

He predicted around Feb 2015 that US shale oil production would decrease 600K/barrels a day by June of the same year. Oops. You ever met an analyst geologist worth a damn Rockman? Can't say I have.

March of 2015, there was an EIA presentation given in Bakersfield to industry types who had an interest in oil prices. He was asked, "do you think that the price of oil can make it into the $20's?". The EIA guy thought about the question for about 10 seconds and said, "if current inventory builds stay the same, or increase, yes".

It took about 9 months, but he was right. Of course he wasn't a geologist either, just some Washington analyst. Funny how the same experts that knew better to fall for peak oil (who was standing in the group declaring an energy crisis during the fastest growing oil production rates in the history of the US..oh yeah...Art!) were also thoughtfully figuring out how these things work, and knew what the answer would be.

Rockman, you consider working for those guys? They could use a well grounded guy with geologic experience, no-nonsense kind of personality, and they happen to be hiring. Not listing geologists, but you could work yourself in on the engineering side I bet.

They had a job fair at this years conference, never seen that before. You could do Operations Research Analyst standing on your head I bet.

http://www.eia.gov/about/careers/

[AdamB]

Where is the coming flood flooding from?

How can anyone who claims to understand this issue not know how to even GOOGLE the scientific sources and reports on this topic?

https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/sir20155091

https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2012/3042/fs2012-3042.pdf

http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2009/3028/

https://pubs.usgs.gov/dds/dds-069/dds-0 ... Y_CH_1.pdf

http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2007/1084/

http://www.boem.gov/uploadedFiles/BOEM/ ... 012-01.pdf

[AdamB]

It's inside my $2.20/gal tank.

$1.78/gal in mine. In 1970 dollars? $0.29/gal.

Happy days are here again!! Can you believe that today's gasoline prices really ARE the good old days prices?

[dashster]

IMHO a great line atributed to Art Berman: “Shale is not a revolution–it’s a retirement party. Shale plays were not some great new idea. They became important only as more attractive plays were exhausted.”

From someone with a compromised view of the history of the oil industry, if he doesn't know that, he isn't really capable of discussing its future, or retirement.

Even the EIA says it's a retirement party. The peak may have been been pushed out and lowered, but prior to the price collapse they had three scenarios in their forecasts which I assume can be categorized as expected, pessimistic, and extremely optimistic. The expected forecast had shale oil production peaking in 2019/2020. The production that has been the majority of the increase in world production for the last 7 years will peak in 2020. A cornucopian has to be pretty old to hang their hat on a 2020 peak.