ROCKMAN wrote:IMHO a great line atributed to Art Berman: “Shale is not a revolution–it’s a retirement party. Shale plays were not some great new idea. They became important only as more attractive plays were exhausted.”
From someone with a compromised view of the history of the oil industry, if he doesn't know that, he isn't really capable of discussing its future, or retirement.
He predicted around Feb 2015 that US shale oil production would decrease 600K/barrels a day by June of the same year. Oops. You ever met an analyst geologist worth a damn Rockman? Can't say I have.
March of 2015, there was an EIA presentation given in Bakersfield to industry types who had an interest in oil prices. He was asked, "do you think that the price of oil can make it into the $20's?". The EIA guy thought about the question for about 10 seconds and said, "if current inventory builds stay the same, or increase, yes".
It took about 9 months, but he was right. Of course he wasn't a geologist either, just some Washington analyst. Funny how the same experts that knew better to fall for peak oil (who was standing in the group declaring an energy crisis during the fastest growing oil production rates in the history of the US..oh yeah...Art!) were also thoughtfully figuring out how these things work, and knew what the answer would be.
Rockman, you consider working for those guys? They could use a well grounded guy with geologic experience, no-nonsense kind of personality, and they happen to be hiring. Not listing geologists, but you could work yourself in on the engineering side I bet.
They had a job fair at this years conference, never seen that before. You could do Operations Research Analyst standing on your head I bet.
http://www.eia.gov/about/careers/
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."
Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"