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The Coming Oil Flood

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: The Coming Oil Flood

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 01 Jul 2015, 03:28:43

sparky wrote:.
From the OPEC official site
http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/data_graphs/330.htm

the Islamic Republic of Iran account for a whooping 157 Billions barrels of proven reserve
considering they got to 6 millions barrel/day before the revolution with a pretty fast rise ,
the kibosh on their exports , degradation of their industry through sanctions , and lack of modern drilling tech
it would seems the figure of 5 millions B/d is quite reasonable as a target


RE: "modern drilling tech"

Fracing is regarded as "modern drilling tech" and I don't understand why the added cost of fracturing a well is considered a good thing. Fracing is the celebration of bad drilling technique. I guess those early wildcatters who destroyed formations through reckless drilling and stranded easy access to trillions of barrels of oil should be regarded "modern" as well.
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Re: The Coming Oil Flood

Unread postby sparky » Wed 01 Jul 2015, 08:16:42

.
I did not think about Fracking , rather directional drilling and modern seismic analysis

Iran has a plethora of old fashion "conventional " and very large gas resources ,
the timeline and political will to bring those on line is something else but throwing some more millions barrels on the market within a shortish time frame must be considered a real possibility
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Re: The Coming Oil Flood

Unread postby Pops » Wed 01 Jul 2015, 09:33:04

Wonder where the flood is to come from?
I haven't heard all that much good fracking news lately. Here is OPEC spare capacity according to the IEA, Thanks to Euan Mearns

Image

Figure 6 OPEC spare capacity stands at 3.34 Mbpd, 2.09 Mbpd of that in Saudi Arabia. The only other country with significant spare capacity is Iran, all others are pumping flat out. The status of Saudi spare capacity does need to be questioned. “Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali Naimi has declared that OPEC will maximize its production at all times.” If that is so, why does Saudi not bring on that additional 2 Mbpd and bury the shale drillers once and for all?
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: The Coming Oil Flood

Unread postby sparky » Wed 01 Jul 2015, 16:45:07

.
The shale drillers are like dog-weed , kill them and kill them again and they are back the next season.
cheap and cheerful , low time lag . as long as a buck is to be made , they'll drill.
even if a buck is not to be made too.
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Re: The Coming Oil Flood

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 02 Jul 2015, 16:32:45

sparky - Lots of money to be made...using someone else's money. Remember my story about the operator who made a small fortune drilling 18 dry holes back in the 70's boom? yes: all 18 wells in the program didn't produce $1 of reserves. That SOB couldn't find oil in his drive way but he was very good at finding gullible investors. LOL.
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Re: The Coming Oil Flood

Unread postby dashster » Sat 04 Jul 2015, 08:56:11

copious.abundance wrote:Here's a link to the book on Amazon. Order now and get your copy early! :)

http://www.amazon.com/The-Peak-Scare-Co ... 1440831866

I might read it myself. :)



I was thinking we only need one person to buy it and provide a summary.
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Re: The Coming Oil Flood

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 04 Jul 2015, 16:26:02

dashter - "In the last decade, oil experts, geologists, and policy makers alike have warned that a peak in oil production around the world was about to be reached and that global economic distress would result when this occurred. But it didn't happen. The "Peak Oil" Scare and the Coming Oil Flood refutes the recent claims that world oil production is nearing a peak and threatening economic disaster by analyzing the methods used by the theory's proponents. Author Michael C. Lynch, former researcher at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), debunks the "Peak Oil" crisis prediction and describes how the next few years will instead see large amounts of new supply that will bring oil prices down and boost the global economy."

That's all I needed to read to know this book is a waste of time. The same old tired straw man approach: use those foolish date predictions to discount the entire predicament of resource depletion. No "economic distress"? What f*cking rock have they been living under. LOL. I guess they missed the stories about the thousands of US military deaths, $trillions in pissed away US tax payer money and countless civilian deaths in what essentially amounted to a resource war disguised as "exporting democracy" and fighting terrorism. That stupidity is even more obvious looking at the world events today which also includes the oil price crash.

Yes: same old point: the POD. They can piss and moan about those inaccurate PO date predictions all they want. But it doesn't disprove the effects of the continuous depletion (regardless of the production rate at any particular time) of our fossil fuel resources. Which is why they'll tend to focus on the past and avoid discussing the details of the world's fate decades down the road. They consider the current low oil prices as proof of the unimportance of PO ignoring the simple fact that the low prices will increase consumption and accelerate depletion while killing much of the incentive to find new reserves.
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Re: The Coming Oil Flood

Unread postby StarvingLion » Sat 04 Jul 2015, 19:19:32

ROCKMAN wrote:dashter - "In the last decade, oil experts, geologists, and policy makers alike have warned that a peak in oil production around the world was about to be reached and that global economic distress would result when this occurred. But it didn't happen. The "Peak Oil" Scare and the Coming Oil Flood refutes the recent claims that world oil production is nearing a peak and threatening economic disaster by analyzing the methods used by the theory's proponents. Author Michael C. Lynch, former researcher at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), debunks the "Peak Oil" crisis prediction and describes how the next few years will instead see large amounts of new supply that will bring oil prices down and boost the global economy."

That's all I needed to read to know this book is a waste of time. The same old tired straw man approach: use those foolish date predictions to discount the entire predicament of resource depletion. No "economic distress"? What f*cking rock have they been living under. LOL. I guess they missed the stories about the thousands of US military deaths, $trillions in pissed away US tax payer money and countless civilian deaths in what essentially amounted to a resource war disguised as "exporting democracy" and fighting terrorism. That stupidity is even more obvious looking at the world events today which also includes the oil price crash.

Yes: same old point: the POD. They can piss and moan about those inaccurate PO date predictions all they want. But it doesn't disprove the effects of the continuous depletion (regardless of the production rate at any particular time) of our fossil fuel resources. Which is why they'll tend to focus on the past and avoid discussing the details of the world's fate decades down the road. They consider the current low oil prices as proof of the unimportance of PO ignoring the simple fact that the low prices will increase consumption and accelerate depletion while killing much of the incentive to find new reserves.


Yeah, its so much more enlightening to read books such as 'Hydraulic Fracturing' by Michael Berry Smith and Carl T. Montgomery CRC Press @ 2015, 812 pages

"The petroleum engineering academic and industry communities also
are aggressively pursuing nanotechnology with the hope of identifying
innovative solutions for problems faced in the overall process of oil and
gas recovery."

"This book is intended to try
and condense this huge amount of information into something that the practicing
engineer can use. At times, it appears that hydraulic fracturing as a
technology is a victim of its own success; “It works!” so well that the fact that
it could work much better is lost. Unlike drilling technology that has seen
huge improvements over the last decade, fracturing technology still resides
in the arena of technologies that were, for the most part, developed in the
1950s and 1960s. There are many companies out there that still think that
getting all the vast inventory of trucks, equipment, water, etc., to one location
and then to the next location is “fracture optimization.”
That is a very important
part of the fracturing process, but it is “logistics optimization” and has
nothing to do with optimizing the fracture. The whole design process should
be focused around matching the fracture design to the needs of the reservoir.
If the engineer can just remember that fracture “conductivity” to maximize
productivity at the minimum cost is the goal, they will improve the productivity
and profitability of their well sometimes in a spectacular manner.
This book is designed to lead the fracturing engineer through the process of
maximizing the wells’ productivity, and if the reader will follow the ideas
and processes outlined in the book, there will certainly be additional success.
To aid in the learning process, there are several design problems including
a description of the well, a design spreadsheet, and a solution to each of
the designs using a simple 2D fracturing model at the URL specified in the
preface. Chapter 18 solves one of these problems by coupling the appropriate
equation with the solution using the techniques described in the book."

In summary,
a) Nano-bullshit will save the oil and gas industry like every other industry.
b) It "works so well" that in the book 'Economic Viability of Micropolitan America' whereby mayors of cities of 10,000-50,000 people were interviewed, not a single mention of hydraulic fracturing or the oil business in general.
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Re: The Coming Oil Flood

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 05 Jul 2015, 08:59:03

"It "works so well" that in the book 'Economic Viability of Micropolitan America' whereby mayors of cities of 10,000-50,000 people were interviewed, not a single mention of hydraulic fracturing or the oil business in general."

Apparently they didn't talk to the majors of the hundreds of small cities in the Eagle Ford and Bakken trends that have reaped hundreds of $millions of direct and indirect benefits from the frac'ng boom. OTOH, of course, there are tens of thousands of cities in areas where there's no oil/NG production let alone frac'ng. Just as there are tens of thousands of small towns that don't gain any economic benefit from commercial fishing. Or the pharmaceutical industry. Or the commercial airline business.Ect.

I'm sorry...lost tract...what was the f*cking poinf? LOL.
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Re: The Coming Oil Flood

Unread postby StarvingLion » Mon 06 Jul 2015, 00:35:39

There are shale deposits all over the country.

Thats the dirty little secret of the scammers called frackers.

Why is there a big panic for crap like windmills and solar panels.

Because fracing is still a money losing scam at $200 a barrel.

I got gas on my farm property. Like everybody else. So what. Its not worth the costs of getting it out. Thats why its still there.
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Re: The Coming Oil Flood

Unread postby ennui2 » Mon 06 Jul 2015, 12:09:37

StarvingLion wrote:There are shale deposits all over the country.

Thats the dirty little secret of the scammers called frackers.

Why is there a big panic for crap like windmills and solar panels.

Because fracing is still a money losing scam at $200 a barrel.

I got gas on my farm property. Like everybody else. So what. Its not worth the costs of getting it out. Thats why its still there.


Yes. Everything's a scam. Everybody's out to screw the other, or maybe it's simply incompetence rather than malice, right?

Is there anybody or anything that you actually SUPPORT? You seem to be anti-EVERYTHING, and it's frustrating reading your posts. Make an argument FOR something rather than just AGAINST, otherwise it just comes across as whining for the sake of whining.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: The Coming Oil Flood

Unread postby dashster » Sun 01 Nov 2015, 02:58:31

This book was supposed to be published by July 31, 2015, but it is still on pre-order. Tremendous time to release a book like this, compared to the previous 7 or 8 years. But he better not wait too long.


Book Description
Oil, though finite, is in much better supply than many renewable resources.
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Re: The Coming Oil Flood

Unread postby dashster » Mon 02 Nov 2015, 11:38:25

pstarr wrote:
Book Description
Oil, though finite, is in much better supply than many renewable resources.

If the author actually said that, then he/she is an idiot. Renewables are not 'resources' rather they are tools to convey natural energy flows to useful industrial/consumer loads. Plus the statement itself is idiotic. There is much more sun then there is oil.


Yeah, that statement is definitely missing something about a time period. "Over the next 30 years oil, though finite...". I suspect his implicit time period is "for the rest of my lifetime".
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Re: The Coming Oil Flood

Unread postby ennui2 » Mon 02 Nov 2015, 12:10:25

ROCKMAN wrote:They consider the current low oil prices as proof of the unimportance of PO ignoring the simple fact that the low prices will increase consumption and accelerate depletion while killing much of the incentive to find new reserves.


You could easily move the needle back to the 90s when that famous magazine article was posted about us drowning in oil and talk about how terrible it was that we were pissing away our bounty. Or go back to the post WWII boom of big cars with tailfins. When it comes to level of importance, people need to feel a clear and present danger. They aren't moved by the idea of conservation during times of plenty no matter how short-lived such times may turn out to be.
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Record oil glut stands at 3bn barrels

Unread postby dolanbaker » Fri 13 Nov 2015, 12:19:32

Looks like the decline in growth in industrial activity is still outpacing the decline in growth in oil production.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34808487
A record glut of oil is set to continue into next year and maintain pressure on prices, the International Energy Agency said on Friday.

Stockpiles stand at a record three billion, the IEA said in its monthly report.

The report has added to falls on European stock markets, with the FTSE 100 shedding almost 1% on Friday.

Frankfurt and Paris also declined following sharp falls in Asian stock markets, with Hong Kong sliding 2.2%.

Investors also reacted to disappointing eurozone growth figures and a slump in commodity prices on the back of weaker demand from China.




Other factors affecting confidence include fears that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next month and poor corporate results from heavyweights including Rolls-Royce and E.On this week.

The FTSE 100 was down 52 points at 6,125 in lunchtime trading after closing down 1.9% on Thursday, while Frankfurt's Dax fell 0.7% and the Cac in Paris shed 0.8%.
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Re: The Coming Oil Flood

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 13 Nov 2015, 12:41:12

Patience Donlan: As I've said before it can take years for matter to balance out. Not predicting where it will balance but the system doesn't come close to adjusting over the course of months. Not for certain but maybe by mid 2016 we'll get an idea of where demand/supply will be heading the next several years. It is of no relevance that folks want to know today where we'll be in several years: we're not even close to making a rough guess let alone a supportable prediction IMHO.
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Re: The Coming Oil Flood

Unread postby dolanbaker » Fri 13 Nov 2015, 12:45:52

Exactly, it's like chasing a ball rolling uphill, you don't need to run. ;)
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Re: The Coming Oil Flood

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 13 Nov 2015, 12:53:51

A ball rolling uphill...I like that inevitability. Like the old joke about falling off a 20 story building: the falling part isn't that bad. It's the sudden stop at the end that's the real problem.
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Re: The Coming Oil Flood

Unread postby Subjectivist » Fri 13 Nov 2015, 15:47:10

ROCKMAN wrote:A ball rolling uphill...I like that inevitability. Like the old joke about falling off a 20 story building: the falling part isn't that bad. It's the sudden stop at the end that's the real problem.


Wasn't there some part of Hell Ancient Greece talked about where the punishment was to roll a boulder up hill forever?
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