Now, their definition of "spare capacity" involves bringing new wells on line within a few years. In other words, it's not spare at all.
Their old fields might have declined a bit.rockdoc123 wrote:All of the billions were spent on the megaprojects from 2006 - 2010 and after they were completed was when Saudi Arabia announced they had reached their goal of a 12.5 MMB/d spare capacity.
I don't think there is any reason to doubt their spare capacity as a volume.
pstarr wrote:It just seems to me (and my good friend Mr. Occam) that unless the answer it quite transparent, the methods reproduceable, and the theory testable (falsification and all that) then this over-capacity thing is much over-rated. I have to go with a world recession
[BofA Guy] cited fresh American Petroleum Institute (API) data which showed U.S. crude inventories climbed by a larger-than-expected 8.9 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 20, for a total of around 437 million barrels squirreled away. Around 50 million to 100 million barrels of crude oil may be gathering dust in floating storage by the end of the second quarter, compared with around 110 million barrels in April 2009, during the global financial crisis, he estimated.
As much as 80 percent of the commercially available storage in the U.S. may already be utilized, Premasish Das, downstream analyst at IHS Energy Insight, told CNBC last week.
...
Others are also concerned about how quickly space could run out. “Within around two months, [onshore storage will] be completely exhausted,” Ivan Szapakowski, a commodity strategist at Citigroup, told CNBC last week. “The only remaining storage globally will then be floating storage, tankers.”
Citigroup is forecasting oil prices to fall toward $20 a barrel before recovering.
Oil is already getting stashed offshore. Tanker prices and lease rates have doubled over the past 18 months, Gaurav Sodhi, a resources analyst at Intelligent Investor, told CNBC last week.
“Clearly, someone is going out there and leasing a lot of offshore storage and those lease rates are much higher. That suggests to me that there’s a massive supply of oil sitting on the ocean,” Sodhi said, noting each tanker can hold around 1 million to 2 million barrels each. “That sort of storage is going to take a while to unwind.”
In the last decade, oil experts, geologists, and policy makers alike have warned that a peak in oil production around the world was about to be reached and that global economic distress would result when this occurred. But it didn't happen. The "Peak Oil" Scare and the Coming Oil Flood refutes the recent claims that world oil production is nearing a peak and threatening economic disaster by analyzing the methods used by the theory's proponents. Author Michael C. Lynch, former researcher at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), debunks the "Peak Oil" crisis prediction and describes how the next few years will instead see large amounts of new supply that will bring oil prices down and boost the global economy.
This book will be invaluable to those involved in the energy industry, including among those fields that are competing with oil, as well as financial institutions for which the price of oil is of critical importance. Lynch uncovers the facts behind the misleading news stories and media coverage on oil production as well as the analytic process that reveals the truth about the global oil supply. General readers will be dismayed to learn how governments have frequently been led astray by seeming logical theories that prove to have no sound basis and will come away with a healthy sense of skepticism about popular economics.
dashster wrote:Publication is a about month away - July 31, 2015.
ennui2 wrote:Michael Lynch wrote a lot of editorials around the 2008 oil panic days to try to debunk peak-oil. There may be a kernel of truth in what he's saying but he is a cornucopian and I would not expect the future of oil supply to turn out as rosy as he predicts (nor do I think it's as gloomy as peakers predict). The fact that he's writing an anti-peak oil book at a time when it's already fallen off the radar of public consciousness is all you need to know about the axe he has to grind. Apparently he feels the need to beat a horse that is already dead as far as the public is concerned.
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