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The Coming Oil Flood

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

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Re: The Coming Oil Flood

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 08 Oct 2016, 16:36:46

To put a fine point on that metric: a 350% increase in rig count. And another rough measure: an increase in capex spending of at least $10 billion/year.


seems like a lot but in 2013 there was $30 billion capital spent on the Eagleford alone. CHK had a couple of years where their capex spend was close to $10 billion as I remember. I don't believe the debt financing will be available as it was previously but that scale of investment did happen
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Re: The Coming Oil Flood

Unread postby StarvingLion » Sat 08 Oct 2016, 16:52:05

http://www.forbes.com/sites/arthurberma ... 71d5be7f74

Look at the Banana Republic in Action. Hahahaha. They admit there is a conspiracy going on

And the fools believe this Marxist shithole is going to succeed with "renewables"...Hahahahaha....

The Idiocracy cannot be saved.
EV's are fuel-less automobiles and Thorium Reactors are fuel-less reactors. Perfect.
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Re: The Coming Oil Flood

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 09 Oct 2016, 20:56:57

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Re: The Coming Oil Flood

Unread postby hvacman » Mon 10 Oct 2016, 10:37:07

Rock - thanks for the extensive and diverse definition of "trend". Sort of like the word "pornography". Hard to clearly define, but you know it when you see it;)

re: turbidite - I looked it up and it was a little like what I suspected - a formation formed in some type of turbulent flow pattern. Of course, my imagination came up with an alternative definition:

"Turbidite - a now-commonly-used re-spelling (due to PC-issues) of geologic rock formations more-accurately called "turdibite". Formations created primarily from heavily-compressed biological waste materials concentrated in defecation areas used by large reptilian creatures of the Jusassic era. A common source-rock for methane. The unique odor of turdibite-source-rock-derived gas gives it the nickname - 'dino-farts' ".
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Re: The Coming Oil Flood

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 10 Oct 2016, 11:59:15

Turbidites are generally deep water deposits of sediment formed from turbid flow. There are numerous facies or areas with grain size variation across a particular turbidite suggesting various finite mechanisms. Modern day turbidites are well documented off the west coast of North America and often are coincident with earthquakes which trigger the initial movement.

Turbidites make up some of the more prolific oil fields with giant fields (>500 MMB) in Brae, Britannian, Claymore, Forties, Foinanaven and Schiehallion in the UK North Sea, Huntington Beach, Kopanoar, Long Beach, Midway/Sunset, Ursa, Braeberry, Wilmington in North America, Edop, Hungo, Kulto, Landana, Bonga in Africa and Marlim, Albacore, Barracuda, Patao, Roncador in Latin America (to name a few).

There is a bit of controversy as of late with regards to many of these deposits, some authors arguing that the deposits are formed more likely in debris flow environments rather than ones with turbidity currents. In reality this is a bit of hair splitting given the range of facies in classic turbidite deposits does include debris or gravity flows. You can read more about it here
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228492617_The_Bouma_Sequence_and_the_turbidite_mind_set
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Re: The Coming Oil Flood

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 10 Oct 2016, 19:48:38

Doc - "...seems like a lot but in 2013 there was"...a $109.62/bbl oil price in September of that year.
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Re: The Coming Oil Flood

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 10 Oct 2016, 20:59:41

hman - Here's the significance of the discovery of the process of turbidite deposits that has actually had a huge impact on relatively recent and significant CONVENTIONAL oil reservoirs. It's about how you can export porous and permeable sandstone reservoirs hundreds of miles to where they could never be deposited.

Easy to envision nice thick sandstones deposited interior to a continent: a stream. And on the edge of a continent: a delta system like that formed at the mouth of the current Mississippi River. Essentially both high energy environments that can transport heavy sand (heavy compared to mud).

So how the hell can you expect sand transported across one of the lowest energy environments on the planet: on the sea floor thousands of feet below the surface. But years ago geologists (including an Italian) found thick sandstones in what seemed to be a Deep Water environment. How did the sand get transported to such locations when there was no known transport system that could do it?

OK...this might be tough to visualize. Imagine a big fish tank full of water. Now a cup of liquid with a specific gravity heavier then water...say mercury. You carefully lower a cup of it to the bottom of the tank and let it spill into a puddle and it just sits there. But now you lift on end of the tank just half an inch. With almost no friction component the mercury slowly flows to the low side of the tank.

Essentially that is turdidity flow. Now imagine a river dumping a mixture of sand and water onto the bottom of the ocean at the mouth of the river. And there's so little energy in this environment the sand/water fluid doesn't mix with the clean sea water. And sea floor has just a tiny tilt...1/2° to 1° out toward the open ocean. So the sand/water turbidity flow just glides effortlessly down the slope of the sea floor. And that slope is constant for 200 miles and then goes perfectly flat. A turbidity flow just slides and slides until it stops at the flat spot. So not moving the sand settles out into a 1" think layer. Now imagine this being repeated hundreds or thousands of times: you end up with a clean well sorted reservoir of porous sand hundreds of feet thick. And it's encased in mud/shale that forms a perfect seal. And long afterwards oil accumulates in those pore spaces in the sandstone.

And there you have it: a very high quality conventional reservoir containing hundred's of millions of bbls oil. A reservoir rock deposited in 2,000' of water when there's no f*cking way for it to happen!!! LOL.

Which is why in Hubbert's time almost everyone knew there could be producible reservoirs laid down hundreds of miles from the edges of the continents in very Deep Water. But eventually the existence of such deposits could not be ignored and thus we had to create a theory for such a unique and unknown sedimeng transport method.

And thus was born the TURBIDITE. Which can actually mimic the morphology of a shallow water delta "fan": skinny at the upper end and widening as you go outward.

And this was the depositional model geologists had to convince managment existed way the hell out in the Gulf of Mexico. Eventually some did and thus BILLIONS of bbls of oil were discovered in the Deep Water TREND of the GOM. And elsewhere in other DW trends around the globe.

Without a believable model of turbidite deposition companies couldn't justify drilling where there was no reason to find reservoir quality rocks. BTW it was in CA where turbidite reservoirs were readily accepted first. Where the Rockman did his MS grad thesis on such a field. At that time experienced Gulf Coast geologists initially rejected the idea.
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Re: The Coming Oil Flood

Unread postby spike » Tue 11 Oct 2016, 08:07:54

From the latest IEA OMR:
"The consortium developing the giant Kashagan oil field reported on 29 September it had begun test-pumping in preparation for commercial production. Initial flows are set to begin at 75 kb/d, rising towards year and through 2017. Operator North Caspian Operating Company (NCOC) said previously that it planned to restart Kashagan at an initial rate of 180 kb/d, increasing to 370 kb/d by the end of 2017 after gas reinjection is optimised."
No guarantee of course, but looking more and more likely...
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Re: The Coming Oil Flood

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 11 Oct 2016, 08:39:29

Thanks for the update spike. So over the next 14 months the world will be "flooded" by a 0.4% increase in oil production. One has to wonder how much the rest of the world's oil fields will decline during that time. Given the typical global decline rates often estimated the big K field looks more like a slower drop in the "water level" then a flood. LOL.
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Re: The Coming Oil Flood

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 11 Oct 2016, 10:45:41

Posting here because I can't get into News Thread.

Elsewhere I read of a big exUS assault vessel, giving to a local country, being sunk. So it seems the area is pretty active. Can't find the link now. Looked to be a pretty modern caterman type the Marines use.

http://gcaptain.com/merchant-vessels-of ... avy-ships/

ReutersBy Jonathan Saul

LONDON, Oct 10 (Reuters) – Missile attacks from Yemen on Western military craft risk spilling over into nearby busy sea lanes which could disrupt oil supplies and also other vital goods passing through the tense area, shipping and insurance sources say.

While shipping companies have yet to divert ships, there are growing worries that any further escalation could hinder oil supplies and potentially lead to higher insurance costs for shipments.

The route is among the world’s busiest and used by major shipping groups such as container line Maersk and oil tanker carriers including Norway’s Frontline and Iran’s NITC, which has benefited this year from the lifting of international sanctions on Tehran.

A ship insurance source said some ships coming into Yemeni ports were already switching off their tracking systems, which allow anyone to monitor their movements via the Internet, due to the violence in the country.

The source said war risk insurance premiums to Yemeni ports such as Hodaida in the north, already amounted to hundreds of thousands of dollars of cover for every vessel.

A U.S. Navy guided missile destroyer was targeted on Sunday in a failed missile attack from territory in Yemen controlled by Iran-aligned Houthi rebels, a U.S. military spokesman said, although the ship was not hit.

The Houthi movement on Monday denied its forces had carried out a missile attack on a U.S. warship.

The attempted strike on the USS Mason came just a week after a United Arab Emirates vessel was attacked by Houthis and suggests growing risks to the U.S. military from Yemen’s conflict.

The attacks took place around the Bab al-Mandab gateway though which nearly four million barrels of oil are shipped daily to Europe, the United States and Asia.

“The Bab al-Mandab is a vital artery for shipping,” said Gavin Simmonds, security and commercial policy director with the UK Chamber of Shipping.

“International shipping is totally dependent on the ability of the international community to provide safe transit of commercial vessels along major sea lanes.”

The UN last week said it took threats to shipping around Bab al-Mandeb “extremely seriously.”

“It is a deteriorating situation and it is worrying that this longer range weaponry is being used in the area,” said Phillip Belcher marine director with INTERTANKO, an association which represents the majority of the world’s tanker fleet.

Yemen has a 1,900-km (1,181 mile) coastline that also juts into the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea – a vast area to police given international navies are already stretched combating Somali piracy in the region, which had been contained in recent years.

The U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence said in a report last week commercial ships in the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandab and Gulf of Aden areas should operate “under a heightened state of alert as increasing tensions in the region escalate the potential for direct or collateral damage to vessels transiting the region.”

Riyadh is leading a coalition of Arab states which began launching air strikes against the Houthis in Yemen 18 months ago to restore to power ousted President Abd Rabbu Mansour al-Hadi.

The war has killed at least 10,000 people and brought parts of Yemen, by far the poorest country in the Arabian peninsula, to the brink of starvation. Both sides accuse the other of war crimes. (Editing by David Evans)
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Re: The Coming Oil Flood

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 11 Oct 2016, 10:52:36

Ok here's an article on the other attack.

Apparently we are now moving some ships into the area.

https://gcaptain.com/photos-show-catast ... le-attack/

http://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/54 ... ift-attack

Photos Show Catastrophic Damage to ‘HSV Swift’ Following Missile Attack

Photo credit: Emirates News Agency
Photo credit: Emirates News Agency
The Emirates News Agency has just released pictures showing damage to the HSV Swift after it was destroyed in an attack on Saturday.

The HSV Swift was on a humanitarian mission in the Red Sea when it was targeted by Yemen’s Houthi group in a missile attack near the Bab al-Mandab strait off Yemen, a key chokepoint for ships transiting between the Mediterranean Sea and the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and Indian Ocean via the Suez Canal.

Details of the incident are still unclear.

Photo credit: Emirates News Agency
Photo credit: Emirates News Agency
The ship is owned by UAE Marine Dredging Company but was chartered by the United Arab Emirates military when the attack occurred.

The Houthis said on Saturday that their forces had destroyed a UAE military vessel with a missile that was advancing towards the Red Sea port of Al-Mokha.

Photo credit: Emirates News Agency
Photo credit: Emirates News Agency
Photos released Wednesday show the vessel was completely destroyed but still afloat. Meanwhile a video has been circulating online since this weekend allegedly shows clips from the attack.



Media reports say no crew were injured in the attack.

The HSV Swift is an aluminum-hulled high-speed catamaran built in 2003 by Incat in Tasmania, Australia. The ship spent its first decade under charter by the U.S. Navy’s Military Sealift Command until 2013.
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Re: The Coming Oil Flood

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 12 Oct 2016, 10:36:04

Can't post story for some reason.

Seems Huthies launched some cruise missles our way. We launched interceptors. Cruise missles crashed. Not sure if our interceptors worked.

Anyway, seems proxy war in Yemen is heating up.


https://news.usni.org/2016/10/11/uss-ma ... les-attack
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Re: The Coming Oil Flood

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Wed 12 Oct 2016, 10:48:16

ROCKMAN wrote:Thanks for the update spike. So over the next 14 months the world will be "flooded" by a 0.4% increase in oil production. One has to wonder how much the rest of the world's oil fields will decline during that time. Given the typical global decline rates often estimated the big K field looks more like a slower drop in the "water level" then a flood. LOL.

No problem Rock. In the last debate, Hilary said that for the first time ever, we are now energy independent. http://www.dailyimpact.net/2016/10/10/hillary-hallucinates-energy-independence/#more-3464
And Trump says that even if we aren't, we can make up the difference with clean coal.
"It don't make no sense that common sense don't make no sense no more"
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Re: The Coming Oil Flood

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 12 Oct 2016, 11:35:57

Perhaps one definition of "energy independent" is that the US can acquire what it needs by either monetary or military force. Kinda like plantation owners long ago were "labor independent". LOL.
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Re: The Coming Oil Flood

Unread postby spike » Wed 12 Oct 2016, 15:54:33

Apologies, Rockman, I wasn't clear in the last post. It was not intended as "the flood" but in response to earlier comments by Pstarr about Kashagan.
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Re: The Coming Oil Flood

Unread postby dashster » Wed 12 Oct 2016, 19:56:27

StarvingLion wrote:
And the fools believe this Marxist shithole is going to succeed with "renewables"...Hahahahaha....


Clinton is far from a Marxist. In her own words - caught on tape at a donor soiree - she "occupies" from the center left to the center right of the political spectrum. While Sanders got her to turn on TPP, it is likely that is just a political move as she told some Brazilian company that she hopes there will be open borders and open trade in the Western Hemisphere. She is right there with the rich CEOs on screwing American workers in favor of cheaper foreign workers.

She does have an aggressive plan for renewable energy on her website. Incredibly aggressive. But she doesn't talk about it, so it may not be a serious proposal. But it says that after four years, all residential electricity (33%) in the US will come from renewables. The plan is to install some huge amount of rooftop solar panels.
Last edited by Tanada on Wed 12 Oct 2016, 21:23:26, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: fixed broken quote
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Re: The Coming Oil Flood

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 12 Oct 2016, 20:26:28

d - "But it says that after four years, all residential electricity (33%) in the US will come from renewables.

A 250% increase in just 4 years...that would be very impressive. A lot better then the 100% increase in the 4 years starting in 2014:

http://www.eia.gov/energy_in_brief/arti ... ricity.cfm

"The plan is to install some huge amount of rooftop solar panels." And does she estimate cost and tell who will pay for it?"

But that will be truly impressive since solar made up only 4% of the total alt energy:

http://www.eia.gov/energy_in_brief/arti ... _users.cfm

Of course it's just a plan...not a guarantee.
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Re: The Coming Oil Flood

Unread postby dashster » Wed 12 Oct 2016, 22:21:43

ROCKMAN wrote:d - "But it says that after four years, all residential electricity (33%) in the US will come from renewables.

A 250% increase in just 4 years...that would be very impressive. A lot better then the 100% increase in the 4 years starting in 2014:
http://www.eia.gov/energy_in_brief/arti ... ricity.cfm


This graph makes it look like we have been doubling our non-hydro renewables every 7 years.

Image

"The plan is to install some huge amount of rooftop solar panels." And does she estimate cost and tell who will pay for it?"


It is pretty amazing that you can put a plan on a major party candidate website and not have to have anything about the cost and where the money for it will come from.

But that will be truly impressive since solar made up only 4% of the total alt energy:

http://www.eia.gov/energy_in_brief/arti ... _users.cfm

Of course it's just a plan...not a guarantee.


Yeah, renewables will allegedly go from 13% to 33% (approximate 150% increase) in 4 years, but solar is expected to be the bulk of that. Solar is less than 1% right now and expected to go to close to 20% in four years. Seems like it is there to show Sanders or Stein supporters, but not talked about due to the massive expenditure that would be needed. A WWII-airplanes type effort that would never happen, even if the Republicans all believed in Climate Change and wanted to do something about it.
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Re: The Coming Oil Flood

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 13 Oct 2016, 08:00:01

d - "...from 13% to 33% (approximate 150% increase) in 4 years". A minor point but that's about a 250% increase.

BTW found that same chart. But another issue I could clarify: the plan seems to hinge on RESIDERNTIAL solar installation. Not all of the current solar comes from such installations but also large scale commercial facilities. Couldn't find those numbers.

But Clinton is no more guilty the other D and R politicians that throw around impractical/impossible plans. The MSM won't work the numbers and the majority of the voters are too incompetent and/or lazy to do it. Even such simple questions: are homeowners going to be required by law to have systems installed on their homes even if someone else pays?
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Re: The Coming Oil Flood

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 13 Oct 2016, 09:43:37

They would be suburban and rural home owners to get those enforced solar panels. Urban cliff dwellers don't have individual roofs. And they won't work for a darn on many row houses, poor orientation.

So I guess the burden falls on the R base. We'll see how well that works. Maybe you will have an option to reduce electricity use by 33% of you can't fit panels. (Snort!)
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