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THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 29 Apr 2017, 23:41:59

Syn - Actually Mexico has been exporting coal sporadically since at least 1980. Not much volume until 2011: 267,000 tons.

https://www.indexmundi.com/energy/?coun ... ph=exports

No idea if expanding with US coal would be practical. But found this:

http://www.sightline.org/2014/05/15/prb ... gh-mexico/

New coal export proposal may signal desperation over Northwest terminals.

"According to an article in a coal trade publication last week, a private firm has announced plans to open a coal export terminal in Guaymas, Mexico. The project aims to ship 30 million tons of coal per year to Asia, sourced from the Powder River Basin and other mining regions in the western US."

{But adds} "In today’s market, coal companies simply can’t ship PRB coal to Asia through Guaymas without losing their shirts. The transportation costs are too high, and the prices that PRB coal would receive in Asia are too low."
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 30 Apr 2017, 07:03:51

ROCKMAN wrote:Syn - Actually Mexico has been exporting coal sporadically since at least 1980. Not much volume until 2011: 267,000 tons.

https://www.indexmundi.com/energy/?coun ... ph=exports

No idea if expanding with US coal would be practical. But found this:

http://www.sightline.org/2014/05/15/prb ... gh-mexico/

New coal export proposal may signal desperation over Northwest terminals.

"According to an article in a coal trade publication last week, a private firm has announced plans to open a coal export terminal in Guaymas, Mexico. The project aims to ship 30 million tons of coal per year to Asia, sourced from the Powder River Basin and other mining regions in the western US."

{But adds} "In today’s market, coal companies simply can’t ship PRB coal to Asia through Guaymas without losing their shirts. The transportation costs are too high, and the prices that PRB coal would receive in Asia are too low."


Interesting, this is the first time I have heard of Mexico serving as just the export terminal for USA companies, I thought they just shipped out their own coal.

Prices for coal shipped to Asia TODAY might be too low to make a profit but as the ROCKMAN has pointed out a few times these type of big projects usually come with a 15 or 25 year long contract for supply at a minimum price. I know that big relatively new cargo container port in Florida made a lot of long term contracts with Chinese companies before they invested all that money to build the facilities. The plan in Florida is to gather in the traffic that would have gone to Baltimore or New York City that is resulting from the expansion of the Panama Canal which opened last year. Unlike most states on the eastern seaboard Florida was eager to build facilities for the increased traffic, the NIMBY disease seems to get significant pushback from government there.

So if this company is serious about exporting coal from Guyumas I would suspect they have already lined up some long term contracts to cover the costs of getting the project in motion.
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby Satori » Sun 30 Apr 2017, 07:18:39

recommended reading
Coal: A Human History
by Barbara Freese

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/376067.Coal
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 30 Apr 2017, 07:52:07

Satori wrote:recommended reading
Coal: A Human History
by Barbara Freese

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/376067.Coal


I will think about it for historical perspective, but it was published over 13 years ago and a heck of a lot has happened in world coal trade and use since then.
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 16 Jul 2017, 16:30:38

This just out from Carbon Brief: https://www.carbonbrief.org/seven-chart ... ady-peaked

"Seven charts show why the IEA thinks coal investment has already peaked"
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 18 Jul 2017, 09:18:14

No need for 7 charts IMHO. Just one showing the boom in coal prices a few years ago plotted against the drop in NG prices. Economics of coal plant construction seems to drive the dynamics more then any other factor. So the critical question: will the decline in NG investments lead eventually to higher prices and produce a new chart showing a new advantage for coal over NG?

And couldn't let this slip thru: "Sales of electric vehicles – which the IEA partly counts towards the energy efficiency total – also rose strongly, up 38% to 750,000. So did they not count the 84,000,000 new ICE's sold in 2016 when calculating the " energy efficiency total"?
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby jawagord » Mon 24 Jul 2017, 15:39:01

Probably belongs in the category of more Dutch wind power = more Dutch coal fired power if such a topic was available, but couldn't find it so this looks like the next best place: Coal exports are up and to of all places Europe.

"A report by the EIA indicated that coal exports—for both steam coal, used for power generation, and metallurgical coal, used for refining steel—have increased by 58 percent from Q1 of 2016 to Q1 of 2017. The majority of the increase was in steam coal, which grew by 6 million short tons (MMst).

Big U.S. coal customer: Europe. Out of the approximately 5.108 million short tons of steam coal exported to Europe, the Netherlands consumed approximately 2.530 million short tons—a little less than 50 percent."

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Coal/US-Coal ... rkets.html
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 25 Jul 2017, 00:12:30

jaw - All good data. BTW the reason the Netherlands imports so much coal is because it re-exports much of it to other European countries. In fact much of all commodities imported are ultimately shipped to other countries. From

https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/news/2015/48/m ... -re-export

"Bulk of the Nethertlands transited goods are coal and ore.

The gross weight of transited goods is dominated by coal, ores, petroleum (derivatives) and natural gas, which altogether make up nearly two-thirds of the total weight in transited goods. The vast amounts of coals and ores are characteristic for the transit business."
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby kublikhan » Sun 30 Jul 2017, 17:49:05

Fossil fuel sees ‘decisive break’ from period of demand growth. Carbon emissions show little or no growth for third year: BP.

It’s the end of an era for coal. Production of the fossil fuel dropped by a record amount in 2016. China, the world’s biggest energy consumer, burned the least coal in six years and use dropped in the U.S to a level last seen in the 1970s.

Coal, the most polluting fuel that was once the world’s fastest growing energy source, has been a target of countries and companies alike as the world begins to work toward the goals of the Paris climate agreement. Consumption is falling as the world’s biggest energy companies promote cleaner-burning natural gas, China’s economy evolves to focus more on services than heavy manufacturing and renewable energy like wind and solar becomes cheaper.

Global consumption dropped 1.7 percent last year compared with an average 1.9 percent yearly increase from 2005 to 2015. “At the heart of this shift are structural, long-term factors,” Dale said. These include “the increasing availability and competitiveness of natural gas and renewable energy, combined with mounting government and societal pressure to shift away from coal towards cleaner, lower-carbon fuels.”

Consumption of coal fell in every continent except Africa. Germany, Europe’s biggest user, consumed 4.3 percent less coal. U.K. demand fell 52.5 percent, the biggest percentage decline among the world’s major economies.

Global carbon emissions, which grew at an annual average rate of about 2.5 percent in the 10 years to 2013, remained stagnant in the past three years. While some of this reflects weaker economic growth, the majority reflects faster declines in “the average amount of carbon emitted per unit of GDP.”
World Coal Production Just Had Its Biggest Drop on Record

Global coal consumption declined by 1.7 percent to its lowest level since 2010. Coal consumption has been falling for a couple of reasons. Countries around the world are passing legislation to limit carbon dioxide emissions, and cheap natural gas and renewables are providing economic alternatives to coal. Last year’s decline marks the second consecutive annual decline in coal consumption.

Almost every region of the world saw a decline in coal consumption. In the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries — primarily the world’s developed countries — coal consumption fell by 6.4 percent. In the European Union, it declined by 8.9 percent. U.S. coal consumption continued to fall sharply. The 8.8 percent decline in consumption took U.S. coal demand to its lowest level since 1978. U.S. coal production followed, with a 19.0 percent decline to levels also not seen since the 1970’s. China’s consumption declined last year as well, which accounted for about 50 percent of the global drop in coal consumption.
Graph: Global Coal Consumption

The Natural Gas Boom Shows No Signs Of Slowing

BP 2017 energy outlook is out: BP Energy Outlook 2017
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby kublikhan » Sun 30 Jul 2017, 18:08:03

Once the engine of the Industrial Revolution and employer of nearly 1.2 million people, the fall of old king coal in the UK has been precipitous. Only five years ago, the fuel was generating more than 40% of the UK’s electricity, but new analysis by Imperial College London reveals coal supplied just 2% of power in the first half of 2017. More than 1,000 deep mines and nearly 100 surface ones operated until the early 1960s – today there are just 10 tiny mines left. Half a century ago it was the UK’s main source of energy, but last year windfarms provided more power.

This week, it emerged that ministers are disbanding a government and industry body created to secure the long-term future of coal power and mining, in the latest sign of the dirty fuel’s rapid demise. The 11-year-old UK Coal Forum will be wound down because it “no longer serves a purpose”, said Richard Harrington, the new energy minister. Pollution laws and carbon taxes have forced large, ageing plants to close in the past five years, with three major ones closing in 2016 alone. Coal supplies so little power today that in April the National Grid reported the UK had gone the first day without the fossil fuel since Thomas Edison opened the country’s first coal power station at Holborn, London, in 1882.

“It’s unprecedented, the speed at which it declined,” said Iain Staffell of Imperial College. “We’ve never had anything like this. In the 1990s there was the dash for gas, and that probably was a quarter of the speed of this.”
The coal truth: how a major energy source lost its power in Britain

Wind, solar and energy efficiency have replaced the vast majority of power previously provided by the UK’s coal fleet, a new analysis shows. But the gap has not been plugged by natural gas, the UK’s now primary source of electricity. Renewables and energy efficiency* have together covered nearly 85% of the power the UK no longer gets from its coal plants. Though gas power surged in 2016 as coal’s fall accelerated, and may yet rise still in the coming years, it is actually producing significantly less power than it was at the beginning of the decade.In 2010 fossil fuels were producing nearly 100TWh more power than they are now, while renewable generation more than tripled by 2016.
What has replaced coal power in the UK?
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 30 Jul 2017, 19:08:38

"Global coal consumption declined by 1.7 percent to its lowest level since 2010." Which is great. But that stat also means current coal consumption exceeds any time in the previous 100+ years. The decline is positive but hardly represents the "end of an era". Hopefully as NG eventually declines the alts will be there to pick up the slack. If not the billions of pounds of proven coal reserves will still be waiting.
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Re: Article: "The Alternatives—Coal..." by Dale Allen Pfeif

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 30 Jul 2017, 19:28:38

annie wrote:The Alternatives—Coal...by Dale Allen Pfeiffer
new article posted on his blog this morning (27 Nov 2005): link


OMG talk about memories of the good ol' days! Dale Allen was Mike Ruppert's personal geologist and sidekick before they had some kind of falling out.

For those who don't remember, Ruppert was a beat cop turned pamphleteer who got into using doom stories early on to sell website subscriptions. Hell bent on connecting dots that weren't in the same universe, a 9/11 truther, someone who cured his own alcoholism by <wait for it> continuing to drink!, a resident of Bellevue...yes..BELLEVUE, someone who fled the US vowing to never come back and after a little vacation time...came back!!

Yes, that was where Dale Allen got his start. And Dale did this absolutely horrible peak oil primer, and confused the word permeable, with impermeable. Rockman and RocDoc would yuck it up over that one, the best way to describe it to a non-geologist would be to say that it is as fundamental a screwup as an emergency room doctor confusing a human heart with a foot.

But thanks for the trip down memory lane! As far as the "alternatives" in the eyes of a geologist who I'm not sure know the difference between sedimentary and igneous, I'm not sure they matter because one thing Dale never would have done is supposed that peak coal might happen willing, and because it was displaced by plentiful natural gas.

Now I wonder what happened to old Dale, if he ever went out and got any geologic experience? Joined a doomer support group? Wrote any other awful and ignorant peaker articles? Gotta go find out...
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby AgentR11 » Mon 31 Jul 2017, 09:20:43

Article about coal (and other) shipments; interesting notes are are the shifts allowing Russia to export much more coal to China, and its neighbors, as well as Eastward within Russia as a result of railway modernization in the far East.

You don't modernize rail for something you only plan to ship for a few years. China and Russia will be burning plenty of coal, 50 years from now, shipped on those same rail lines, to generate electricity so middle class Chinese can enjoy the wonders of air conditioning.

According to the plans of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, Russia will increase its share in the APR markets from 8% to 15%. That will be facilitated with the certification of Russian coal in China. In the result, more than a half of Russia’s export coal will flow to the APR markets.


http://en.portnews.ru/comments/2364/
Yes we are, as we are,
And so shall we remain,
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