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THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby GoghGoner » Mon 20 Jun 2016, 15:16:15

I do think it would ironic if coal peaked before oil, it would show us once again that we can't predict a darn thing right.

China: Is peak coal part of its problem?

If we are, in fact, reaching peak coal, even before peak oil, this is disconcerting for those who believe that the Hubbert Model is the only way of viewing the world. Maybe we are expecting too much from the model; maybe we need a model that considers prices, and how prices depend on wages and rising debt. Falling energy prices are especially bad for the system; they seem to lead to debt defaults.
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 20 Jun 2016, 16:25:48

First, Hubert's model has nothing to do with coal...never has and never will. This almost amounts to identity theft. LOL. Second, we won't know that global coal production is currently peaking or not for many decades. After all we came very close to establishing a new US PO more than 40 years after Hubbert's prediction came true. And the recent trend: a 65% increase in global coal consumption since 2000. Yes: a recent flattening. But no one has any credible data allowing a prediction of coal consumption 10 to 20 years into the future. Just as no one had data in the 70's to predict the recent increase in oil prices and the subsequence surge in US oil production.

Really seems to be grasping for straws.
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 24 Jun 2016, 16:01:45

This thread has an IQ of 15.

I'll dumb it down for you

COAL versus NATURAL GAS

Which one do you think is applicable to Texas Ponzi Finance?

You can't stop and start a coal plant easily.
You can stop and start a gas turbine easily.

There you go. Thats why coal is bad in Scamerica.

ITS ALL ABOUT THE XXXXING DERIVATIVES AS USUAL
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby Synapsid » Fri 24 Jun 2016, 20:42:17

For all:

This is just a suggestion about something to keep in mind:

There is strong and effective action, for various reasons, to restrict consumption of coal in the US and in China. That is important, because they are major consumers.

There are not the same or similar reasons at play in other countries, especially those with "less-developed" economies, and in particular India. I know I've been blowing that horn for quite a while now but there are almost as many people in India as there are in China and that balance will shift in a decade and a half or so, and India.needs.energy.

The IEA predicts that most of the increase in use of coal for energy will be in SE Asia and the Pacific region, and that means India and Indonesia and Vietnam and the Philippines and, as of this last week, Japan (coal plants to replace nuclear ones.) This is important, and should receive at least as much attention as does decrease in rate of increase in use of coal in China, for one example.
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 24 Jun 2016, 21:40:19

Sub - " There is strong and effective action, for various reasons, to restrict consumption of coal in the US and in China." You have some support for the Chinese VOLUNTARILY cutting coal consumption? Based on the following it seems more likely they've been forced to cut it as a result of their steel industry (a very coal dependent process) turning to sh*t:

"The drive behind that stellar increase has been China's double-digit economic growth over the past decades. That led to ever more domestic demand for steel and the government invested heavily in the industry during the boom years.

But that demand has been severely hit by the current slowdown, leaving China with more steel than it needs. It produced more than 822 million tonnes of steel in 2014 and is expected to produce even more this year, yet projected demand for its steel in 2016 is only 672 million tonnes."

IOW if/when the steel market recovers we might expect their coal consumption to increase.
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby kublikhan » Sat 25 Jun 2016, 02:09:52

Less than a quarter of the fall in Chinese coal came from coal used for steel.

China's coal production fell 3.5 percent to 3.68 billion tonnes in 2015[a fall of ~130 million tonnes]. The production of coking coal, used in steelmaking, also fell 6.5 percent over 2015 to 447.78 million tonnes[a fall of ~30 million tonnes].
China 2015 coal output drops 3.5 pct on soft demand, pollution curbs

Image
Changes to China’s electricity generation.
Analysis: Decline in China’s coal consumption accelerates

And I would not be betting on any large resurgence of Chinese steel demand either:

China's economic transition is one of the major reasons why coal use in the world's second-biggest economy is falling faster than expected. "The Chinese economy is undergoing a massive structural transition away from heavy industry towards less energy-intensive service sectors." Moreover, as debt-fueled investment projects in China started to run out of steam late last decade, demand for heavy industry products such as steel and cement - whose production uses massive quantities of coal - has peaked.
A look at China's efforts to reduce coal use

China’s steel demand is expected to contract 4 per cent to 645 mt this year, followed by another 3 per cent decline in 2017.
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 29 Jun 2016, 14:34:02

There is strong and effective action, for various reasons, to restrict consumption of coal in the US and in China.


I'm afraid our friend 'Synapsid' will not inform us about the TRUTH...

It's all going to change from "baseload" and "peakers" to "dispatchable" and "variable"...

Why?

Because the little people cannot even begin to afford 24x7 electricity, nevermind gasoline at the pump. The only large high EROEI coal left in the world is in the ukraine and that aint yours.

Instead of buying lottery tickets to get rich, the Peoples Republic will be buying lottery tickets to get electricity.

The "prices" of oil and gas and coal are a total fabrication.
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Re: Can Clean Coal Actually Work? Time to Find Out.

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 09 Jul 2016, 14:37:29

This nonsense was, is, and will always be a non-starter.

Totally agree with all Pstarr stated from my reading up on it. Not to mention the expenses associated with manufacturing and building out/modifying these coal plants. For all good indication of where we are in the US at this time check out this link: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/05/scien ... sippi.html
To think that the recent Paris Climate Accord was presuming this capturing of CO2 in its emission projections and commitments. It seems as our time frame for any action at all meaningful relative to climate gets shorter the more desperate and unrealistic the fantasy solutions become. :shock:
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Re: Can Clean Coal Actually Work? Time to Find Out.

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 09 Jul 2016, 16:31:22

onlooker, I noticed the clean-coal article, but didn't bother with it. The NYT is not to be trusted when it comes to energy issues.
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Re: Can Clean Coal Actually Work? Time to Find Out.

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 09 Jul 2016, 17:14:59

Yes, pstaar is basically right. Have there been any 'clean coal' plants yet? The last one I heard about got scrapped, iirc. It's pretty clear that, even if they somehow got a positive eroei out of one the economics still wouldn't work. Otherwise they would have at least a few working models to point to and to jump up and down pointing at.
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Re: Can Clean Coal Actually Work? Time to Find Out.

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 09 Jul 2016, 22:06:27

Sounds like negative EROEI. Kind of like ETP and peak oil.

Burning coal is an exothermic reaction . . . it releases energy and increase in entropy or randomness. To sequester the resulting CO2 requires new energy. More energy. Will that new energy come from more coal? Sounds like a merry go round of waste?

You could use uranium or the solar/wind or something to pack the CO2 back in. But why not just start with wind/solar/nuke power and forget the coal step. go solar yay or something
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 05 Oct 2016, 04:05:15

Ooops. China cut too much coal production. China's coal prices shot up 50%. Time to turn some production back on.

China’s efforts to shrink its bloated coal industry may have worked too well, too fast. Prices have surged more than 50 percent this year after the government ordered miners to cut output to ease a glut and help lift the industry out of crisis. Now, as winter looms and fuel demand peaks, the consumer and producer of about half the world’s coal is having to relax some of those controls, or face even higher fuel costs. The reforms may be a victim of their own success. Output fell more than 10 percent in the first eight months of this year.
China Rushes to Boost Coal as Rally Warns: Winter Is Coming
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 05 Oct 2016, 08:21:56

kublikhan wrote:Ooops. China cut too much coal production. China's coal prices shot up 50%. Time to turn some production back on.

China’s efforts to shrink its bloated coal industry may have worked too well, too fast. Prices have surged more than 50 percent this year after the government ordered miners to cut output to ease a glut and help lift the industry out of crisis. Now, as winter looms and fuel demand peaks, the consumer and producer of about half the world’s coal is having to relax some of those controls, or face even higher fuel costs. The reforms may be a victim of their own success. Output fell more than 10 percent in the first eight months of this year.
China Rushes to Boost Coal as Rally Warns: Winter Is Coming


So Coal proves to be just like Petroleum and Natural Gas, a 10 percent shortfall leads to price rationing of the supply. Who could have guessed that would happen? Oh yeah, anyone who knows what the terms supply and demand actually mean.
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 05 Oct 2016, 15:01:10

T - "Oh yeah, anyone who knows what the terms supply and demand actually mean.". Mucho correcto! LOL.

But this provides an opportunity to toss out a very unhappy possibility for our resident greenies. The thought began when I debunked the "start of the Golden Age of NG" bullsh*t in the Peak Oil News section. Not only did the GAofNG start about 4 decades ago we might be seeing an approach to PNG developing. Not next year or even in 10 years. But some day. And what will the PROVEN AND VERY ABUNDANT energy source on the planet at that time? Obviously coal. Maybe by that time the alt energy sources may be very extensive. But what if they are not? And what if only some of the alts have grown significantly...like electricity fueled transportation, home heating/cooling and manufacturing? And the bulk of the e- has been produced by burning NG? How attractive would a coal substitute for NG look then? As I've pointed out numerous times Texas is currently building the largest CO2 sequestration project on the planet. It will dispose of GHG from the second largest source in the country: a plant with 3 NG burners and 3 LIGNITE BURNERS. And the lignite burners aren't being decommissioned. And why would they: Texas has a much larger PROVEN reserve of lignite then it has of NG. In fact the entire country has a much larger PROVEN coal reserve then it has NG.

Makes you wonder why the "greenest POTUS" in history began pushing "Clean Coal", eh?
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby Synapsid » Wed 05 Oct 2016, 19:51:36

Oh, very good ROCKMAN,

I keep saying this and saying this and...

Not with regard to Texas, no, but what you're pointing out is the situation pretty much for the world.
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 05 Oct 2016, 22:07:11

Syn - "...but what you're pointing out is the situation pretty much for the world.". I'm not predicting such a future as a certainty. But so far I've seen no meaningful efforts from the world's fossil fuel consumers to reduce their production of GHG. In fact, just the opposite as a result of lower oil prices. But who can say there won't be an amazing shift in human nature in the near future.

Seriously, who? LOL.
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby litesong » Fri 07 Oct 2016, 11:56:03

rockman wrote:.....But who can say there won't be an amazing shift in human nature in the near future......


".....'cept fer conservative re-pubic-lick-un AGW deniers.
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 07 Oct 2016, 12:15:35

lite - ".....'cept fer conservative re-pubic-lick-un AGW deniers." And would you like to list the ACTUAL (as opposed to verbal) projects put in place by liberals that have SIGNIFICANTLY reduced GHG emissions? Two of the biggest I can think of are the huge expansion of Texas alt energy and the construction of the largest CO2 sequestration project on the planet. Both of which have happened under R dominated govt.

Last time I looked almost all AGW beleivers were still members of the group DIRECTLY producing the vast majority of GHG...the fossil fuel consumers. And unless you're currently powering your computer with a foot peddle generator instead of from a grid the burns fossil fuels you are also a card carrying member of that group. LOL.
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby litesong » Fri 07 Oct 2016, 13:05:53

rokmess wrote:...the fossil fuel consumers....you are also a card carrying member of that group.


Computer's using hydro & wind turbine energy. The wind turbine grid came in handy a few years ago, when we had a 5+ month drought, which caused our state to conserve water behind our dams. Sorry if Washington state legislators care more about the health of people & the beauty of Washington state than legislators, paid by coal lobbies in coal country states. Traveled 20-30,000 miles on my bicycle. Had a superlative electric bicycle till it was stolen. The last 4 decades, my cars got 35+ to 50+mpg without needing Hybrids or diesels(really dirty, specially after the technical crimes). My present car (badmouthed for poor mpg), gives me 30% better mpg than the average driver of this vehicle & even more compared to the complaining leadfooters.
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 07 Oct 2016, 17:21:08

Coal has been used since at least Ancient Greece and will continue to be burnt into the future so long as it is easy to access and burn. That is human nature, to deny this reality is to expect humans to behave differently than they have for at least the last 8,000 years that we have solid archeological records for.
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