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THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 13 Apr 2016, 15:23:20

More on Peabody's bankruptcy here: https://robertscribbler.com/2016/04/13/ ... ankruptcy/

ROCK wrote: "in sheer number of Btu’s they pale in comparison to coal"

This is an important point, one most seem to be completely ignorant of. Most people think that alt's already comprise somewhere between 10 and 50% of all energy produced! This ignorance keeps people, imho, from taking stronger stands demanding more.

On the other hand, as k's post above points out, alts are growing fast--doubling every few years, last I checked--while ff's are no longer on an upward trajectory. This exponential growth, if it continues, will lead to renewables making up significant portions of the energy mix before too very long, and since they are stagnating, that will mean the ff's portion of the pie will be propotionately smaller.

Of course, what we really have to do is shut down earth-killing fossil-death-fuel corporations and production, indlucing ROCK's (sorry about that, old chum! :) ) as soon as possible.
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby GoghGoner » Fri 15 Apr 2016, 08:54:02

US coal production is falling like a rock. These companies are getting killed. Global numbers would be interesting right now. I am not sure how CO2 is still rising unless there are still large fires ongoing or the lag hasn't caught up with the monitoring.

For the week ended April 9, 2016
Estimated U.S. coal production totaled approximately 10.2 million short tons (mmst)
This production estimate is 6.7% lower than last week's estimate and 43.4% lower than the production estimate in the comparable week in 2015
East of the Mississippi River coal production totaled 3.9 mmst
West of the Mississippi River coal production totaled 6.3 mmst
U.S. year-to-date coal production totaled 178.5 mmst, 32.2% lower than the comparable year-to-date coal production in 2015
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby kublikhan » Fri 15 Apr 2016, 10:25:37

Global 2016 coal data is not in yet and 2015 data is still preliminary, but early data suggests global coal consumption fell around 2-4% in 2015, on top of the 0.7% decline in 2014.
World coal consumption peaked in 2013, declined 0.7% in 2014 and is on track to decline an additional 2-4% in 2015.

Beyond China’s 5.7% year on year decline to date in 2015, U.S. domestic coal consumption is down 11%, Germany is down 3%, the U.K. is down 16%, Japan is down 3%, Canada is down 5%, and Turkey is down 13% year over year. With Russia’s economy in recession, we wouldn’t expect consumption growth coal there. Korea is flat, Indonesia is down 2% and Mexico is down 1%. Of the major coal-consuming economies, only two are reporting positive growth in 2015. Indian coal is up 3-6% year on year. And having repealed its price on carbon pollution, Australian coal consumption is up marginally in 2015.
Past Peak Coal In China

Here's coal's production data. If we assume production falls by a similar amount as consumption estimates, we can use a 3% figure for the estimated 2015 fall in global coal consumption:

Global Coal Production(mtoe)
year______ 2004 2010 2013 2014 2015
production 2836 3604 3961 3934 3816e
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby GoghGoner » Fri 10 Jun 2016, 10:41:51

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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby Subjectivist » Fri 10 Jun 2016, 11:11:53

The question to my mind is, will the new coal burners being built right now around the world in many countries exceed the amount burned by those plants being closed down in the USA in favor of natural gas?
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 10 Jun 2016, 12:17:48

GoghGoner wrote:US coal production is falling like a rock. These companies are getting killed. Global numbers would be interesting right now. I am not sure how CO2 is still rising unless there are still large fires ongoing or the lag hasn't caught up with the monitoring.

One worldwide report I read today said that oil and natural gas consumption worldwide had increased enough to more then offset the decline in coal. They were encouraged by the fact that the rate of increase had declined even if it had not gone to zero considering the growth in the human world population.
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby kublikhan » Fri 10 Jun 2016, 15:45:01

Subjectivist wrote:The question to my mind is, will the new coal burners being built right now around the world in many countries exceed the amount burned by those plants being closed down in the USA in favor of natural gas?
I guess it depends on how you are defining "now". For the moment coal consumption is falling globally. In 2014 global coal consumption was flat. In 2015 and probably 2016 global coal consumption fell. Yet BP and the IEA are both projecting that coal will resume it's upward growth rate going forward:

Coal use will rise by 0.8 percent a year through 2020 to 5.8 billion metric tons of coal equivalent, less than the 2.1 percent predicted last year for the following five years, the Paris-based agency said Friday in its Medium-Term Coal Market Report.
IEA Cuts Coal Demand Outlook as China `Golden Age' Seen Over

[global coal grows] at less than a fifth of its rate over the past 20 years.

The growth of coal is projected to slow sharply (0.5% p.a.), such that by 2035 the share of coal in primary energy is at an all-time low, with gas replacing it as the second-largest fuel source.
BP Energy Outlook
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 10 Jun 2016, 17:37:27

It has long been predicted here that the world production of oil would reach "peak oil" and then start steadily declining. When that happens as it must. but I don't know what decade it will happen, the search for substitutes will accelerate and it is then we will see if we can wean ourselves off coal.
Shut down a coal fired electric plant today and it's"No problemo" we will just switch to Combined cycle natural gas turbines or oil fired thermal plants.
If the oil or gas is not there to buy and use what will we do then?
I suspect the answer will be a return to coal and pollution concerns will get shunted aside.
That is just my observations of human nature but does anyone here want to bet against me?
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby Synapsid » Mon 13 Jun 2016, 16:02:32

For all,

Japan announced that by 2019 coal will replace NG as its main energy source. The plan is to replace the country's nuclear plants with coal-burning power plants.

The article is at Bloomberg; click Search, and "Oil" shows up in the middle of the page.
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 13 Jun 2016, 16:25:59

BP report on energy 2016 is now out and there are some interesting observations with regards to coal.
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 13 Jun 2016, 16:29:59

rockdoc123 wrote:BP report on energy 2016 is now out and there are some interesting observations with regards to coal.

Such as? A quote or two maybe? Or a link.
I could obviously search it out but you obviously know where it is so why not tell us?
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby kublikhan » Mon 13 Jun 2016, 17:07:33

My Earlier BP quote was from their 2016 Energy Outlook. Here's a few more nuggets:

The continuing reform of China’s economy causes growth in China’s energy demand to slow sharply. This slowing weighs heavily on global coal, which grows at less than a fifth of its rate over the past 20 years. The share of coal declines from 43% in 2014 to around a third in 2035. In contrast, the share of non-fossil fuels increases, reaching nearly 45% by 2035. Growth in global coal demand is expected to slow sharply, growing by just 0.5% p.a. over the Outlook compared with almost 3% p.a. over the past 20 years. By the last five years of the Outlook[2030-2035] coal demand falls while the economy still grows. The large downward revision to coal demand by 2035 (-6%, -270 Mtoe) reflects both a lower expected profile for Chinese economic growth, and environmental and climate policies encouraging a faster switch to lower carbon fuels.
BP Energy Outlook
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 13 Jun 2016, 17:49:24

kublikhan wrote:My Earlier BP quote was from their 2016 Energy Outlook. Here's a few more nuggets:

The continuing reform of China’s economy causes growth in China’s energy demand to slow sharply. This slowing weighs heavily on global coal, which grows at less than a fifth of its rate over the past 20 years. The share of coal declines from 43% in 2014 to around a third in 2035. In contrast, the share of non-fossil fuels increases, reaching nearly 45% by 2035. Growth in global coal demand is expected to slow sharply, growing by just 0.5% p.a. over the Outlook compared with almost 3% p.a. over the past 20 years. By the last five years of the Outlook[2030-2035] coal demand falls while the economy still grows. The large downward revision to coal demand by 2035 (-6%, -270 Mtoe) reflects both a lower expected profile for Chinese economic growth, and environmental and climate policies encouraging a faster switch to lower carbon fuels.
BP Energy Outlook

I read that as a decline in growth instead of a decline in total demand. Staying steady at these high levels is problem enough without any growth added on.
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 13 Jun 2016, 18:49:47

Oil, gas, nuclear, hydro and new-renewables production all grew in 2015 while coal production declined by 4%, the first significant decline for many decades. But global CO2 emissions were still up by 0.1%. Notably, CO2 emissions rose in Germany, Austria, Portugal, Spain, Italy and Ireland.

BP 2016: Global Energy Production At A Glance
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Re: Can Clean Coal Actually Work? Time to Find Out.

Unread postby Subjectivist » Mon 13 Jun 2016, 21:11:20

Japan, faced with increasing calls from environmentalists to phase out coal, is standing by its support of the fossil fuel, saying it will help developing countries adopt the best available technologies for coal-fired power plants.
Pressure to rein in carbon dioxide emissions is intensifying, especially after the Paris Agreement, a global deal reached in December to tackle climate change. Environmentalists have criticized Japan for being one of the biggest providers of coal financing among Group of Seven nations and for being a laggard in switching to cleaner energy sources.
In response, Japan says it’s helping to develop more efficient coal-fired plants that can cut carbon dioxide emissions. The Asian nation’s financing of coal-fired projects is also helping to improve energy security in countries that still rely on the cheap fuel, officials say.
“It is not realistic to quit coal entirely,” Takafumi Kakudo, director of the clean coal division at the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, said in an interview. “Environmental aspects alone can’t dictate the way countries set their energy policies.’’

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... al-support
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby StarvingLion » Mon 13 Jun 2016, 21:45:30

"China’s shift to consumption and services lies at the heart of Xi’s quest for new growth...The government at all levels in Guangdong has been encouraging companies to replace human workers as rapidly as possible,” said Lu. “I can see our business increasing more than 50 percent this year.”

---------------------------------------------

I thought the point of coal was to lift the workers out of poverty. The Globalisation Ponzi is way cool: Ruin your lungs from coal and then head straight to the human disintegration machine. The Star Trek utopia was never meant to be.

Sad fact is that none of the big three (USA, Europe, China) can compete with the billions of remaining hordes who think the brazillian Rat Infested favela of $3.00 a day is a great lifestyle.
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Re: Can Clean Coal Actually Work? Time to Find Out.

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 13 Jun 2016, 21:48:46

No. Clean coal can not work. The effort to extract, compress and sequester the gaseous carbon would require more combusted carbon . . . hence more coal combustion . . . than would be actually hidden away.

This nonsense was, is, and will always be a non-starter.
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby StarvingLion » Mon 13 Jun 2016, 22:00:06

Synapsid wrote:For all,

Japan announced that by 2019 coal will replace NG as its main energy source. The plan is to replace the country's nuclear plants with coal-burning power plants.

The article is at Bloomberg; click Search, and "Oil" shows up in the middle of the page.


Watch Toyoda leave the country.
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby JV153 » Thu 16 Jun 2016, 13:31:00

There's a real earthquake going on the coal industry - Peabody and this :
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... oes-spread

http://boereport.com/2016/06/13/china-c ... ion-slows/

.. then of course there was this, a few years ago (financial) : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YD9sz8rvheI
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Re: THE Coal Thread pt 3 (merged)

Unread postby GoghGoner » Thu 16 Jun 2016, 14:09:14

I wonder if that is the first state-owned coal company to go bankrupt in China. The first state-owned company to go bankrupt happened in 2015 in China but that was a small equipment-making company. China is by the far the largest coal producer in the world so this could signal a huge change in the coal industry.
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