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THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby kiwichick » Sun 05 Feb 2017, 20:16:47

@ sub......China is also closing down old coal power plants..........and they are ramping up their renewables rollout ....as is India
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 06 Feb 2017, 06:00:34

kiwichick wrote:@ sub......China is also closing down old coal power plants..........and they are ramping up their renewables rollout ....as is India


Sure if it makes you sleep better at night accept that at face value, but all those things are a drop in the bucket compared to the increase in CO2 emissions form their other sources. It isn't just that they are building many new power stations for every one they scrap, they are also building cars and trucks and delivery vans faster than anywhere else on Earth. China is now building or importing 50 percent more private vehicles a year than the USA. They still have about a BILLION people who do not have a car but who want a car. At 30,000,000 private cars a year that is going to take a number of years to accomplish, and 98 percent of those new cars are designed to burn petroleum.
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby kiwichick » Mon 06 Feb 2017, 06:55:18

@ t ....have you got a link showing that 98% of cars that are going to be purchased in China in the future will be powered by Internal Combustion engines
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 11 Feb 2017, 20:54:58

February 10: 405.61 ppm
February 09: 405.88 ppm
February 08: 406.11 ppm
February 07: 406.07 ppm
February 06: 406.12 ppm
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 12 Feb 2017, 14:35:01


Week beginning on February 5, 2017: 406.03 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 404.34 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 383.37 ppm


One week does not a trend make, however in this data we see a sharp drop in the growth rate. We are up 1.69 ppmv from one year ago instead of the 2.5 or more we have seen so much of recently.
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 12 Feb 2017, 15:01:33

"One week does not a trend make, however in this data we see a sharp drop in the growth rate. We are up 1.69 ppmv from one year ago instead of the 2.5 or more we have seen so much of recently."

Perhaps the collapse of the global construction industry is responsible for the emissions plateau (from SRSrocco)
Image
Cement production accounts for 5% of worldwide man-made emissions. During the Greatest Recession in 2009 cement production continued unabated, yet now (during a supposed recovery) it is in decline.

(The following chart is worth a look-see. The global economy is collapsing much faster than it was during the Greatest Recession. (also from right click) (SRSrocco))
Image
Maybe the decline is a consequence of global greening. Or perhaps peak oil really does trump runaway global climate change.
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 13 Feb 2017, 07:17:40

T, you keep better track of this stuff than most of us. Haven't we seen a flattening in the increase of CO2 concentrations around this time of year in some other years?

The NE has been hit with snow, but are we seeing an early spring further south that might be soaking up some CO2?
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 13 Feb 2017, 09:12:33

dohboi wrote:T, you keep better track of this stuff than most of us. Haven't we seen a flattening in the increase of CO2 concentrations around this time of year in some other years?

The NE has been hit with snow, but are we seeing an early spring further south that might be soaking up some CO2?


Yup, in both 2013 and 2014 we had a weeks long pause in CO2 numbers during the Jan-Feb period lasting about 5 week IIRC.

Like I posted earlier, as one week low number is not significant, you need many data points before you get to a significant variance. The idea that some global economic event causes a low number one week after many months of weekly high numbers is laughable on the face of it.
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 13 Feb 2017, 12:31:03

("The idea that some global economic event causes a low number one week after many months of weekly high numbers is laughable on the face of it." That's why I ignored it.)

So there wasn't a flattening of the curve this time of year last year? So that is why the difference is so small right now. Thanks.
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 17 Feb 2017, 11:02:34

February 16: 405.77 ppm
February 15: 405.74 ppm
February 14: 406.37 ppm
February 13: 405.45 ppm
February 12: 406.46 ppm
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 17 Feb 2017, 11:04:04


January 2017: 406.13 ppm
January 2016: 402.52 ppm


Year over year January was up 3.61 ppmv.
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 13:02:44

February 19: 405.61 ppm
February 18: 405.84 ppm
February 17: 405.73 ppm
February 16: 405.77 ppm
February 15: 405.74 ppm
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 13:04:29


Week beginning on February 12, 2017: 405.91 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 403.45 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 384.99 ppm
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 15:35:55

Soooo, the flattening of the curve this year continues!
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby Subjectivist » Mon 20 Feb 2017, 19:51:38

Does up 2.5 year over count as flat?
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby ritter » Tue 21 Feb 2017, 12:54:34

Subjectivist wrote:Does up 2.5 year over count as flat?


Only when seen against a 3.5 from last year. :(
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 25 Feb 2017, 08:38:02

February 24: 408.28 ppm
February 23: 407.28 ppm
February 22: Unavailable
February 21: 406.71 ppm
February 20: 406.67 ppm
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 25 Feb 2017, 08:56:00

408!

So do you think we'll hit 410, at least for a daily reading, before the (North Hemisphere) spring draw down begins?
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sat 25 Feb 2017, 14:08:43

dohboi wrote:408!

So do you think we'll hit 410, at least for a daily reading, before the (North Hemisphere) spring draw down begins?


Last year we hit almost 409 in May.
Tanada wrote:May 22: 408.97 ppm


We still have two or three months to top out, I would guess like 412? I say that because we have been about 3 over last year numbers for months.
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 26 Feb 2017, 07:52:52

Having set three new February daily temperature records in the last eight days something occurred to me this morning. If the Northern Hemisphere climate really does flip subtropical as I have been predicting the difference between Summer and Winter CO2 readings should narrow down a lot from where it is now.

Most people reading this know already that CO2 levels drops in the months of June, July, August and part of September. It then starts rising late October and rises all the way through the following May.

The reason for this is the Northern Hemisphere growing season intensifies as both the temperature rises from March through July and the number of daylight hours increase gradually from January through June. The two effects overlap creating what we call Spring and Summer.

Well in a Subtropical Northern Hemisphere climate the freezing temperatures of November-March in the bulk of the hemisphere dissipates as a weather driver. For nearly all the territory between 70 North and 25 SOUTH of the equator there is no freezing period of time. That means in the north over most of Canada and Alaska and Siberia and Eastern Europe through Scandinavia there is not winter freeze to stop plants from growing in winter. The limiting factor shifts from temperature to hours of daylight alone.

To be clear in NW Ohio where I live I am about 41 degrees north and here the winter daylight in late December is down to about 8 and a half hours while in late June it approaches 16 hours. That difference over six months will still have a strong effect on how much growth takes place in the winter months. The other factor is, leaf and organic debris decay are what causes CO2 to rise rapidly in November, but in general rot comes to a halt over much of the north in December, January and February because frozen material is relatively stable.

Under the climate flip scenario rotting vegetation will be limited by the next least factor, probably moisture. If winters still have precipitation as rain instead of snow there will be a lot of rot going on unabated.

If you look at the current pattern of the CO2 cycle the decay and uptake portions are almost in balance in the last two weeks of September and first two weeks of October each year. The same is true in the last two weeks of May and first two weeks of June each year. The difference is deciduous trees drop a lot of leaf litter starting in October through November that decay out CO2 and in the spring the trees put out new leaves in April and May depending on tree species that start taking up CO2. In the tropical scenario the predominant trees are broad leaf evergreens, like Palm Trees and Azalea. Those trees grow constantly and drop leaves individually instead of all at once like Deciduous trees do in the fall. Even with the low number of hours of sunlight in winter they still take up some CO2 all winter in the regions where they currently grow. In the tropical scenario there range goes from within 30 degrees of the equator all the way to 70 degrees north, across a much greater swath of territory. Again I believe the limiting factor will be water. There is such a thing as tropical deciduous trees, for example several species of tree on Madagascar that drops its leaves at the beginning of the dry season to conserve moisture and leafs out when the monsoon season breaks the annual drought.
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