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THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 30 Jan 2017, 13:03:54

January 29: 405.76 ppm
January 28: 405.39 ppm
January 27: 405.55 ppm
January 26: Unavailable
January 25: 407.29 ppm
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 30 Jan 2017, 13:05:03


Week beginning on January 22, 2017: 406.48 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 403.12 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 383.91 ppm
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 30 Jan 2017, 13:06:44

Image

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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 30 Jan 2017, 13:23:15

Notice for those who care, neither the Global nor the Northern Hemisphere CO2 levels dipped below 400 ppmv last fall. This is now the world we live in, CO2 is now (400/270)*100=148% of what it was pre-industrial use of fossil fuel. By the commonly held numbers of where we started and where we now are we are about half way to doubling the CO2 in the atmosphere. If the low sensitivity numbers are correct, 3C per doubling, we should be 1.5 C above baseline 1600. If the more extreme number of 5C per doubling is correct we should be 2.5 C above 1600 baseline. If on the gripping hand Paleoclimatologists have it right then the Northern Hemisphere will soon flip into Hothouse while the southern hemisphere remains in the Icehouse like it was from 34,000,000 BC until about 3,000,000 BC and the readings in the Southern Hemisphere will be 1.5 C above baseline while the readings in the Northern Hemisphere will be about 8 C above baseline.

I tend to see the third scenario as most likely for a couple reasons. For one it reflects the climate we know existed on the planet from the beginning of the Oligocene Epoch, through the entire Miocene Epoch and into the first half of the Paleocene Epoch. Secondly it explains how we get such widely different number for what doubling CO2 means, the two hemispheres act independently so the global average does not serve as a good guide to what you will find at a random location outside of the Tropic Zone.

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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby M_B_S » Tue 31 Jan 2017, 04:45:57

@ Tanada Great post!

I called this the climate time mashine humans are running @ full speed.


http://climate.nasa.gov/interactives/cl ... me-machine

https://robertscribbler.com/tag/climate-time-machine/

The Middle Miocene Climate Optimum of 15-17 million years ago was a radically different world. It hosted an atmosphere in which carbon dioxide levels varied wildly from 300 parts per million to 500 parts per million. Temperatures were between 3 to 5 degrees Celsius hotter than the 19th Century. And sea levels were about 120 to 190 feet higher. During this period, the world was still cooling down from the heat of the Paleocene and Eocene epochs. Carbon was being sequestered. And it was the first time the world broke significantly below a 500 part per million CO2 plateau that had been established during the Oligocene 24 to 33 million years ago.

If CO2 levels remain in this range, these are the temperatures, sea levels, and climate conditions we will transition to and ultimately experience. But time, and fossil fuel burning, is not on our side. For under business as usual fossil fuel burning rates of increase, we could hit the Oligocene threshold within as little as 25-30 years. And even if the current rate of increase were maintained, the Oligocene boundary sits about 5 decades away.
***************

It is possible that the anthropocene will end before 2100 A.D.

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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 31 Jan 2017, 11:00:38

Just a little reminder, in 2016 we hit the weekly high reading abnormally early, on April 10, 2016's weekly reading at 408.69 ppmv.

We never got a good explanation as to why the highest week last year was a month before the normal date. Through all of 2016 and so far in 2017 CO2 levels have been rising at higher rates than average. While this is not a good thing it is also a somewhat expected thing because since we started tracking CO2 in the early 1950's the rate of change has climbed every decade over the previous decade.

At current rates, if they continue at this pace as is to be expected with all the new electric coal fired power stations in China, India, Turkey and many other countries, we will cross the 410 ppmv minimum before 2020. If releases continue to grow down the slope of Peak Oil as I expect we will hit 430 ppmv before 2030 and 450 around 2040. Doubling the pre-industrial 270 ppmv at 540 ppmv will happen long before the end of the century. Not that I expect to be alive to see that, but hey lots of failed predictions won't stop me from making another.
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 02 Feb 2017, 23:06:59

February 01: 405.69 ppm
January 31: 406.66 ppm
January 30: Unavailable
January 29: 405.76 ppm
January 28: 405.39 ppm
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 03 Feb 2017, 12:50:38

And now it's official: largest CO2 sequestration project in the world is now operating in Texas pulling the GHG from the second largest GHG source in the USA:

Jan 10 (Reuters) - NRG Energy Inc and JX Nippon Oil & Gas Exploration Corp said on Tuesday they had begun operations at a $1.04 billion carbon capture facility at a Texas coal-fired power plant and were using the emissions to extract crude from a nearby oilfield.

The facility, the largest of its kind in the world, is the latest in efforts by their power industry to curb carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions as pressure mounts from regulators, investors and consumers to stem climate change. The carbon capture facility could become a model for CO2 collection at existing power plants in China and India, analysts said. By pumping the plant's CO2 underground to extract oil, the project could ameliorate concerns from environmentalists about emissions from coal-fired power plants while also using a funding mechanism - oil sales - to pay for long-term maintenance.

The U.S. Department of Energy funded $190 million of the project's construction, with $250 million in loans from the Japanese government. NRG and privately-held JX Nippon split the remaining $600 million cost in a joint venture arrangement. At its peak, the Thompsons, Texas, facility should collect 1.6 million tons of carbon dioxide per year, roughly 90 percent of emissions from NRG's nearby power plant, the largest in Texas. The plant, engineered by Mitsubishi Corp , has collected more than 111,000 tons of CO2 since opening on December 29.
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 03 Feb 2017, 14:24:58

The homeless encampment in the hills of the nearby county park looks like it is going to be there a while. In early January, they stole all the crispy Christmas trees from the curbs, and the Park Service is beside themselves because all the dead and downed wood has disappeared as well. If you drive to the top of the hill, you can see their campfires.

I don't begrudge them their fires, I am simply terrified of the hazards. I clad my house in James Hardy fiber/cement siding and a galvanized steel roof with mineral coating, but one of my neighbors still has 33-year old wooden shakes on his, and my house will probably be uninhabitable if his burns.

We have a wet year now, which means that the grass and brush is growing huge, and as soon as it browns we are in for one heck of a fire season.

If I thought it would help, I'd buy ten Coleman camping stoves and donate them to the homeless. I suspect that they would still have campfires, though. I am deathly afraid that all the homeless people are going to barbeque themselves in late Spring or early Summer. I just happen to live in the extreme South end of Silicon Valley, and the other neighborhoods have been driving these people out for years, and so far they have not done so in my neighborhood.

I mention this because the rampant grass, the brush, the downed California live Oaks, and yes even those crispy Christmas trees represent lots of sequestered carbon. It's not OK to burn wood, it's not healthy or good for the environment, and it never was.

I don't want to disrupt this thread overmuch, but won't the excess carbon dioxide stimulate plant growth and sequester carbon even faster? It seems like a negative feedback loop to me.
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 03 Feb 2017, 14:55:38

KJ - "and sequester carbon even faster? " And that's the problem I have with the woodburner logic of the carbon cycle. Yes: burn a tree and eventually that carbon will again be sequestered. But the problem is the "eventually" part. Cut and burn one 20 year old tree this winter and that carbon will end up in another tree...in 20 years. Burn another 20 year old tree next winter and then wait 21 years for the total recycling of both trees. But in just 2 years you've injected 40 tree-years of CO2 into the atmosphere and sucked only 2 tree-years into existing trees.

IOW until you can grow a 20 year tree in just one year you continue creating a huge sequestration deficit.
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 03 Feb 2017, 15:51:53

Yes, RM, that is correct. I'll add that wood smoke is a powerful carcinogen and kills many in Africa. I think about that every time I stoke up my LPG grill and add that perforated tray of water-soaked mesquite or hickory chips for the smokey flavors I love.

I can't help but be comforted by woodsmoke, even knowing that it's bad for me. Must be one of those evolutionary things, like the craving for beef and dairy products because we have had domesticated cattle for 50,000 years or so.
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 04 Feb 2017, 03:17:02

ROCKMAN wrote:KJ - "and sequester carbon even faster? " And that's the problem I have with the woodburner logic of the carbon cycle. Yes: burn a tree and eventually that carbon will again be sequestered. But the problem is the "eventually" part. Cut and burn one 20 year old tree this winter and that carbon will end up in another tree...in 20 years. Burn another 20 year old tree next winter and then wait 21 years for the total recycling of both trees. But in just 2 years you've injected 40 tree-years of CO2 into the atmosphere and sucked only 2 tree-years into existing trees.

IOW until you can grow a 20 year tree in just one year you continue creating a huge sequestration deficit.


The key naturally enough is to grow 21 or more trees for every tree you harvest, that way the CO2 offset is equal too or greater than the release from the tree you are burning. This was never a problem until people got carried away with the whole curing diseases and having lots of kids that lived into adulthood. In Europe from circa 1000 AD to 1800 AD every high population country had designated fuel forests that were control harvested so that the trees would grow back at the same rate they were cut down. When Coal started to become easy to access those fuel forests were seen as arable land that could be planted into food crops, they were harvested of all the wood and then turned over to growing more food to feed more population in bigger cities where the heating and cooking was done with coal.

In fairness I am sure it seemed like a good idea at the time, but it is a trap, now there are too many people to feed if the fuel forests get replanted.
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby kiwichick » Sat 04 Feb 2017, 15:15:25

@ t .....thanks for that info.......in New Zealand we could certainly replant thousands of hectares of steep and hilly land that has been cleared in just the last 250 years
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby careinke » Sun 05 Feb 2017, 01:25:06

If you turn some of the wood into biochar, while burning the wood, to put into the soil, you have a carbon negative system.

Do it in a rocket stove, and you seriously reduce the amount of needed wood, and significantly reduce pollution.
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby Rod_Cloutier » Sun 05 Feb 2017, 11:39:00

I saw a alternative newscast today which said "Trump is getting real about the coming ice age", "Antarctica flash froze over only 8 years burying the ancient city of Atlantis in water (Ice)", "440 PPM of C02 is okay and even a normal level for this planet" All of this information was data mined by webbots from the internet over the last month.

Somehow I think the catastrophic climate change- global warming message has been missed on some people:

https://youtu.be/_h09Ztb7sTc?t=10m22s
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 05 Feb 2017, 12:11:24


Week beginning on January 29, 2017: 406.20 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 403.84 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 383.61 ppm
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby kiwichick » Sun 05 Feb 2017, 12:47:12

@ t ....+ 2.3 ppm annual average increase over the last 10 years

but the last couple of years are closer to 3ppm per year ......the trend seems to be worsening
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sun 05 Feb 2017, 15:03:57

kiwichick wrote:@ t ....+ 2.3 ppm annual average increase over the last 10 years

but the last couple of years are closer to 3ppm per year ......the trend seems to be worsening


The trend has been worsening for 70 years, every decade since the 1950's has been higher than the one before.
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 05 Feb 2017, 15:09:49

Good point. It is called the "Keeling Curve," after all, not the Keeling Straight Line.

And unfortunately it is an upward curve. And getting steeper in spite of news that global emissions may have peaked.
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sun 05 Feb 2017, 16:16:21

dohboi wrote:Good point. It is called the "Keeling Curve," after all, not the Keeling Straight Line.

And unfortunately it is an upward curve. And getting steeper in spite of news that global emissions may have peaked.


IMO all those stories are nothing but fantasy press releases. China is still building new coal power plants every week, and India is not that far behind them. The only way emissions would be going down would be for the rest of the world to be scrapping 50 to 100 old coal power plants every year. America closed what, six or seven last year? Germany has built or expanded their coal burning capacity over the last five years, they just don't honstely boast about it.
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