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THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby dissident » Wed 30 Nov 2016, 19:11:31

No, it is a local emission. Probably from a container ship in the area. The CO2 does not get mixed instantly and will have enough time to form filaments and be advected around by the ambient circulation.

For the same reason CH4 in the Arctic Ocean basin should produce measurable blobs and filaments when it starts to blow.
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 01 Dec 2016, 09:35:55

November 30: Unavailable
November 29: 403.84 ppm
November 28: 404.38 ppm
November 27: 404.93 ppm
November 26: 405.40 ppm
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 01 Dec 2016, 09:36:39


Week beginning on November 20, 2016: 403.98 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 400.30 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 380.71 ppm
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 01 Dec 2016, 09:37:55

October 2016: 401.57 ppm
October 2015: 398.29 ppm
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby kiwichick » Thu 01 Dec 2016, 10:38:53

so October average up .....3.28 ppm from 2015.......dragging the 10 year average towards 2.5 ppm per year
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 01 Dec 2016, 12:45:16

HURRAY!!!! Tanada is back in the house!!!

I'm gonna post it over on the runaway thread, but there's more bad news about carbon feedback from soils kicking in.
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 06 Dec 2016, 20:17:26

November 2016: 403.53 ppm
November 2015: 400.16 ppm


So an annual increase for Nov to Nov over the last year of 3.37 ppm...pretty close to what we've been seeing lately, iirc.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/index.html


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(That noaa symbol looks like maybe it's supposed to represent the climate flying way from us.)
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 07 Dec 2016, 02:58:34

December 05: 403.62 ppm
December 04: 404.36 ppm
December 03: 404.42 ppm
December 02: 404.32 ppm
December 01: Unavailable
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 07 Dec 2016, 02:59:21


Week beginning on November 27, 2016: 404.38 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 400.75 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 381.24 ppm
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 07 Dec 2016, 03:12:07

Seems the expectation that rates would slow as the El Nino dissipated this fall have not played out as I was expecting. I thought we would be back to gains in the 2.0-2.5 range for year over year by now as is usually the case in the period following an El Nino that goes into ENSO neutral conditions like we have now. If we had developed a strong La Nina as happened in 1999 following the very strong 1997-98 El Nino (which is what I was hoping for) we would be seeing minimal numbers in the 0.7-1.4 range of gains year over year.

Consolidated model runs for ENSO conditions through first quarter 2018 continue to predict neutral conditions remaining in effect for the next 15 months. IOW we will have conditions in the -0.5 C to +0.5 C range for the next 15 months, neither El Nino nor La Nina is expected to develop for 2017.

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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby kiwichick » Wed 07 Dec 2016, 04:25:21

it was only the strong la nina in 1999 / 2000 that kept the global average temperature low......they are the only years post 1998 to be cooler than the previously hottest year...1997
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 07 Dec 2016, 09:54:19

Good point (again), T.

We seem to have undergone a step-change to permanently higher rates of increase.

Whether this is already showing the results of feedbacks kicking in, or something else may take some time to determine with accuracy. I've stopped checking things like isotope signature shifts, but that should give some indication of when soil and some other feedbacks/deathspirals have kicked in with force.

Of course, if the feedbacks are mostly just failure of carbon sinks (soils, vegetation, oceans...), I suppose there would be less of a clear isotope signature, right?
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby Subjectivist » Thu 08 Dec 2016, 02:08:42

dohboi wrote:Good point (again), T.

We seem to have undergone a step-change to permanently higher rates of increase.

Whether this is already showing the results of feedbacks kicking in, or something else may take some time to determine with accuracy. I've stopped checking things like isotope signature shifts, but that should give some indication of when soil and some other feedbacks/deathspirals have kicked in with force.

Of course, if the feedbacks are mostly just failure of carbon sinks (soils, vegetation, oceans...), I suppose there would be less of a clear isotope signature, right?


Which isotope signatures do you mean? It gets confusing because recent organic carbon is enriched in Carbon-14, or I guess fossil fuel carbon is depkeated in it if you prefer that point of view.

Unfortunately there is a very big confounding factor most people seem to ignore. Concrete and Mortar used to build about everything in the modern world start out by baking rocks rich in Calcium Carbonate to make quick lime. In the process the CO2 part of the carbonate is released in the air and floats away. Later when the mortar or Concrete are used they slowly absorb CO2 from the air rebuilding carbonate bonds in their chemical structure. The problem is, the CO2 released by baking the carbonates also has a different isotope ratio than the organic carbons in either fresh biomass or fossil fuels.

The more construction being done in any year the more confused the isotope signatures are that year.
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 09 Dec 2016, 17:04:53

Thanks, Sub.

I love it when I learn new stuff like this here.

Yeah, I think it may be hard to make out the exact expected isotope signature, for the reasons you give, and others.
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 09 Dec 2016, 19:43:29

For 2016, Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations are Rising at the Fastest Rate Ever Seen
https://robertscribbler.com/2016/12/08/ ... ever-seen/
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 09 Dec 2016, 21:43:30

dohboi wrote:Thanks, Sub.

I love it when I learn new stuff like this here.

Yeah, I think it may be hard to make out the exact expected isotope signature, for the reasons you give, and others.


It is actually even more complicated than that simple explanation. Limestone deposits formed in fresh water have a different isotopic signature than those deposited in sea water, and the different can be as much a several hundred percentage points. There is an actual 'index' ration based on a 'standard' calcium carbonate formation chosen by the AGU decades ago to represent the 'average', but if you have a limestone that came from a lake that is now being mined it will have a very low C-13 ratio compared to a chunk of limestone originally deposited in the sea between North America and Europe that was pushed up on land during one of the continental collisions.

I did a quick google and found this nice short (6 pages) pdf showing just how massive the range can be between two limestone formations of different origination. In this case the limestone's were lake bed formations and formations from the Black Sea region piled up in different spots in Romania.


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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 12 Dec 2016, 14:02:20

In a related note to the above posts about inorganic sources of CO2 for the edification of dohboi and others who may be interested. In America we get our industrial 'soda ash' the foundation ingredient for Baking Soda and dozens of industrial processes like glass making and laundry detergent amongst many others from mining large deposits of Trona ore discovered in Wyoming in the mid 20th century. Several other deposits of economic value are mined around the world including three in Africa, but outside of the USA and locations in Africa where the ore is plentiful most industrial Soda Ash is manufactured.

In fact before the huge deposits in Wyoming and Utah became industrial mine sites most of the Soda Ash used in the USA was also industrially manufactured in Solvay, New York. The city of Solvay, New York was founded and built around plants using the Solvay process which takes saltwater and limestone with an Ammonia catalyst and converts it into Soda Ash and Calcium Chloride by chemically shifting the CO2 in the limestone to the Sodium in the salt and shifting the Chlorine from the salt to the Calcium from the limestone. Here in the colder regions of the country Calcium Chloride is beloved by many homeowners because it melts snow and ice at much colder temperatures than Sodium Chloride aka Rock salt aka Table salt. It also has advantages in that it doesn't cause environmental damage to most plants, has a very low corrosion rate compared to rock salt and does little damage to concrete in your sidewalks or driveway. The only catch is, because almost all of it is a manufactured chemical it is more expensive than rock salt which is abundantly available.

So anyhow the point of this little story is, because of the Solvay process invented about 170 years ago which is used most places with industries needing Soda Ash and Portland Cement which has been going on nearly as long and Lime Mortar manufacturing that that was invented in the ancient world about 3000 ybp there has been a lot of 'inorganic' CO2 released by humans that was never fossil fuel. To be fair all the Portland Cement and Mortar and Soda Ash made in the last 200 years is the vast bulk of the inorganic carbon humans have released, the mortar manufactured in ancient Rome and China through say 1800 isn't even a blip on the line in the scale of things. Also the inorganic carbon released might be classified as 'temporary' because for example if you have a lake that is acidic from CO2 building up in the surface waters you can scatter some Calcium Chloride in the waters and it will reform Calcium Carbonate out of the dissolved Calcium and CO2 that will deposit as a mineral layer on the bottom of the lake. Mortar and Concrete also slowly absorb CO2 from the air until they are saturated with Calcium Carbonate crystals as well.

The only reason it matters at all is the inorganic CO2 has a slightly higher Carbon 13 ratio than organic when those carbonates were formed in ocean waters. If they were formed in freshwater lakes the signature is almost the same as that of organic CO2 sources. Before that makes things seem simple, most calcium carbonate was formed in ocean waters simply because oceans make up the very vast percentage of all water on the planet.
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 12 Dec 2016, 14:02:48

December 11: 404.36 ppm
December 10: 404.12 ppm
December 09: 403.99 ppm
December 08: 404.02 ppm
December 07: 403.36 ppm
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 5

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 12 Dec 2016, 14:03:50


Week beginning on December 4, 2016: 403.87 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago: 401.25 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago: 381.41 ppm
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Re: THE Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Thread Pt. 6

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 20 Dec 2016, 06:44:08

December 18: 404.52 ppm
December 17: 405.54 ppm
December 16: 405.04 ppm
December 15: 405.68 ppm
December 14: 404.49 ppm
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