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PeakOil is You

THE ASPO Thread Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: ASPO calls the peak

Unread postby TheDude » Sun 04 May 2008, 18:49:47

They're building a 41 km long causeway for Manifa, too. Nasty oil in that field - vanadium and H[sub]2[/sub]S aplenty.
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Re: ASPO calls the peak

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 04 May 2008, 19:12:46

My biggest complaint with ASPO is that they tend to ignore some of the more drastic effects that oil’s falling energy contribution will have on world economies. Smaller energy supply means less economic activity, which in a world buried in debt, which it will no longer be able to service = TRAIN WRECK!
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Re: ASPO calls the peak

Unread postby Starvid » Sun 04 May 2008, 19:24:22

dinopello wrote:
Starvid wrote:The Persian Gulf is not a hard place to work offshore. It's calm and balmy, no storms and it's shallow. Compare that to the North Sea...
I would prefer the shore-leave in Holland, Norway, Denmark and the UK better than Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE :!:

Dubai is supposedly very nice, and so is that Iranian(!) free zone island resort Kish.
Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
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Re: ASPO calls the peak

Unread postby Starvid » Sun 04 May 2008, 19:27:20

shortonoil wrote:My biggest complaint with ASPO is that they tend to ignore some of the more drastic effects that oil’s falling energy contribution will have on world economies. Smaller energy supply means less economic activity, which in a world buried in debt, which it will no longer be able to service = TRAIN WRECK!
Every time I've spoken to the ASPO chairman about these kinds of things he very strongly says that he is not an economist and not better than anyone else at predicting those things. ASPO deals with oil and gas and leaves economics to those who are better at that.
Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
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Re: ASPO calls the peak

Unread postby mos6507 » Sun 04 May 2008, 19:58:30

Starvid wrote:Dubai is supposedly very nice, and so is that Iranian(!) free zone island resort Kish.


I doubt any westerner is going to be getting laid there, at least if they intend on returning home with his head intact.
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Re: ASPO calls the peak

Unread postby TheDude » Sun 04 May 2008, 20:02:31

mos6507 wrote:
Starvid wrote:Dubai is supposedly very nice, and so is that Iranian(!) free zone island resort Kish.
I doubt any westerner is going to be getting laid there, at least if they intend on returning home with his head intact.

Wrong again, Ilya: Sex In The City: Dubai Style
Then there are the fun-loving girls who fly out from Europe (and the States) to hook up with affluent guys. Magazines here have even published interviews with British women who say they come out for sun, fun, and sex. You’d think this would be good news for all the men here, and it is for those with lots of cash but single guys like my Canadian friend Joe don’t fare as well. His is a teacher’s income. This gets you a date with a Bangladeshi housemaid if you are lucky.
Ironically, single friends of mine of both sexes make the same complaint: finding a decent partner of the opposite sex is nearly impossible. My Dutch friend Saskia says, “Men want only one thing: sex. My male friends all complain that women only want one thing: a guy with lots of spare change. Yes, the West has arrived.

So what happens? The guys with the bucks get a large share of the women. Of course, guys like Ahmed, a local friend of mine, say that they give equal time to both Western and Arab women. “Lebanese are the best, though” he says. “They know how to treat a man.” I didn’t ask him to elaborate. What I do understand from Babak is that Lebanese women are ‘high maintenance’. You have to spend a lot. Filipinos, in contrast, are cheap dates.
What’s interesting—and a little irritating—is that a lot of local guys have no problem with being married and having girlfriends on the side (not an attitude restricted only to local guys). Local women, on the other hand, are not even allowed to chat on the telephone with a man outside the family. Very double standard, to my way of thinking.

They even have tattoo parlors!
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Re: ASPO calls the peak

Unread postby leal » Sun 04 May 2008, 20:03:27

Starvid wrote:I'd like to add that, as we all know, the data is very bad. As a result of us getting better data, the peak year might keep jumping back and forth, just as it has done previously on regular occasions.
Maybe it is better to talk about peak decade instead of peak year then? If we define the decade in the same way as Wikipedia, e.g. 2000s, our current decade should be peak decade?
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Re: ASPO calls the peak

Unread postby Starvid » Sun 04 May 2008, 20:16:06

I think the best way to say when we will peak is "now or soon". When we talk about infrastructure timescales, which this is all about, 10 years is soon. And I doubt very much it will take more than 10 more years to reach the peak.
Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
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Re: ASPO calls the peak

Unread postby shortonoil » Sun 04 May 2008, 20:19:12

Starvid wrote:Every time I've spoken to the ASPO chairman about these kinds of things he very strongly says that he is not an economist and not better than anyone else at predicting those things. ASPO deals with oil and gas and leaves economics to those who are better at that.

That is what I find difficult to accept in their approach. It is like looking at the wagon and ignoring the horse. Sure, the wheel won’t fall off getting there, but the critter pulling it may die on route. If an organization like ASPO can’t give a good assessment of the economic effects of PO it reduces their credibility and the purpose of the entire PO message? Maybe they should consider consulting with Cleveland and Kaufmann?
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Re: ASPO calls the peak

Unread postby Starvid » Sun 04 May 2008, 21:26:31

There are no economists in ASPO. They are physicist and geologists et cetera. They can only speculate about the economic impacts of peak oil, and they aren't more qualified than you or me when doing that. So if they talk about the economy they aren't really contributing any added-value.

If you wonder about the economic impacts of peak oil I'd advise you to ask Paul Krugman or Ferdinand Banks, two eminent American economists.
Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
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Re: ASPO calls the peak

Unread postby gampy » Mon 05 May 2008, 00:43:16

Starvid wrote:There are no economists in ASPO. They are physicist and geologists et cetera. They can only speculate about the economic impacts of peak oil, and they aren't more qualified than you or me when doing that. So if they talk about the economy they aren't really contributing any added-value. If you wonder about the economic impacts of peak oil I'd advise you to ask Paul Krugman or Ferdinand Banks, two eminent American economists.

I am wondering if economists have any real insight to the consequences of peak oil and energy supply issues. I don't think economists can realistically predict what comes on the back of the steep decline, except generalities and guesses.

Anyone's guess is good I suppose. I think the only thing you can say is that changes, and dislocations will occur. You have a wide range of scenarios being trotted out. From techno fixes, and "market forces will drive any change over to alternatives" to Mad Max, and apocalypse. I imagine it is somewhere in between.
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Re: ASPO calls the peak

Unread postby Starvid » Mon 05 May 2008, 12:07:47

Well, I recomend reading Fred Banks. Or mailing him.

http://www.energypulse.net/centers/author.cfm?at_id=665
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ASPO Switzerland, May 24th 2008

Unread postby Schadenfreude » Tue 27 May 2008, 05:22:00

[web]http://www.inf.ethz.ch/~fcellier/Pubs/World/tod_09.png[/web]
Report on First General Assembly of ASPO Switzerland, May 24th 2008, University of Basel
TOD wrote:ASPO Switzerland was founded 1.5 years ago by Daniele Ganser, a young professor of contemporary history at the University of Basel. His primary research interests concern the politics of peace, and it was in this context that he began to study the political and sociological implications of Peak Oil: How can humanity transition from a paradigm of continuous expansion and exponential growth to one of sustainable development and stagnation while avoiding violent resource wars as they are likely to erupt over control of the last remaining oil fields?

The Strategy of Tension: NATO’s Hidden Terrorism
Interview at Voltairenet wrote:Daniele Ganser, professor of contemporary history at Bale University (Switzerland) and chairman of the ASPO - Switzerland, published a landmark book about "NATO’s Secret Armies." According to him, during the last 50 years the United States have organized bombings in Western Europe that they have falsely attributed to the left and the extreme left with the purpose of discrediting them in the eyes of their voters. This strategy is still present today, inspiring fear for the Islam and justifying wars on oil.
Silvia Cattori: When we observe the demonisation of the Arabs and Muslims in the conflict between Israel and Palestine, we might think that this does not have anything to do with the oil.
Daniele Ganser: No. In this case not. But, in the US perspective, it is definitely about taking control of the energy reserves of the Eurasian block that is situated in a ’strategic ellipse’ that goes from Azerbaijan to Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the Persian Gulf, passing through Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. It is precisely over there, in that region where this false war ’against terrorism’ is taking place, that the biggest oil and gas reserves are concentrated. In my opinion, it is not about anything else but a geo-strategic game inside which the European Union can do nothing but lose. Because, if the US takes hold of the resources, and the energy crisis becomes worse, it will tell them: "You want gas, you want oil. Very well, in exchange we want this and that." The US is not going to give the oil and gas for free to the European countries. A few people know that the "peak oil", the maximum production of oil in Europe - the production to Norway and Great Britain - is declining.

The day when people will realise that these wars ’against terrorism’ are manipulated, and that the accusations against the Muslims are, among other things, propaganda, they are going to be surprised. The European countries must wake up and understand once and for all how the strategy of tension works. And they must also learn to say "no" to the US. Moreover, in the US also, there are many people who do not want this militarizing of the international relationships.
Silvia Cattori: You have also done some research on the attacks that took place in September 11th 2001 and you have signed a book [13] jointly with other intellectuals who worry about the inconsistencies and contradictions of the official version of these events, as well as the conclusions of the commission of survey ordered by Mr. Bush. Do you not fear being accused of being a "conspiracy theorist"?

Daniele Ganser: My students and other people have always asked me : if this "war against terrorism" concerns indeed the oil and gas, the 911 attacks have also been manipulated, haven’t they? Or is it a coincidence that Osama Ben Laden’s Muslims have struck exactly at the precise moment that the occidental countries were starting to understand that an oil crisis was announcing itself?
Therefore, I became interested in what had been written about September 11th and I also studied the official report that was presented in 2004. When we dig into this subject, we realize from the start that there is a big worldwide debate around what really happened on 911.
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Re: ASPO Switzerland, May 24th 2008

Unread postby Schadenfreude » Tue 27 May 2008, 09:09:46

Time to do something about oil
Asia Times wrote: The oil price rise of more than US$50 per barrel since the US Federal Reserve started cutting interest rates in September is beginning to get serious. Since the rise of oil import prices alone removes $170 billion from the US economy, more than 1% of gross domestic product, it is both inflationary and highly recession-producing, especially since it has been accompanied by similar rises in other commodity prices. Its full effects have not been seen yet but they're coming - don't worry! At some point we are probably going to have to do something about it. The question is: what?
...We could invade somewhere. Considered as an oil acquisition exercise, Operation Iraqi Freedom has been a smashing success, and only appalling Wilsonian wimpiness in the US government has prevented the United States from taking full advantage of it. Iraq's known oil reserves have been increased by about 100 billion barrels since the invasion, as competent US oil companies have been free to explore for new oil employing techniques more advanced than the 40-year-old dowsing sticks used by Saddam's oil operation. At today's oil price of $130, less a generous $20 for drilling and extraction, those additional reserves have a value of $11 trillion, or approximately 10 times the most alarmist estimate of the cost of the war to date.

The problem is that the US did not secure itself a proper royalty on the new oil finds (even 10% would have been worthwhile - $1.1 trillion over the next few decades.) Nor did it ensure, by setting up a privatized oil company and a trust fund for the Iraqi people diverting oil revenues from the Iraqi government, that the new oil finds would be exploited in an efficient manner and the supplies directed properly into the world oil market. Any future invasion of an oil-producing country should avoid these two mistakes and thus make itself self-financing. The obvious place to invade is Venezuela...
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2008 Sacramento Peak Oil Conference - Sept 21-23 (ASPO)

Unread postby roccman » Mon 02 Jun 2008, 12:27:57

Link

Very well done primer on home page.
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
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Re: 2008 Sacramento Peak Oil Conference - Sept 21-23 (ASPO)

Unread postby GeoJAP » Mon 02 Jun 2008, 12:41:41

I'd love to hear the presentations and see from where the audience members are derived.
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ASPO VII Conference in Barcelona website

Unread postby peaknik » Wed 09 Jul 2008, 12:38:26

Here it is: http://aspo-spain.org/aspo7/home.php?idioma=en

October 20th & 21st, in Barcelona, Spain.

Check the dossier too!

Best regards

ASPO Spain
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Went to the ASPO meeting and I have a 4 letter word for you

Unread postby kevincarter » Tue 21 Oct 2008, 06:33:14

DOOM Even the optimistics are making scary statements.

A quote from the meeting:
The way to solve technical problems until now has always been to pour more oil into the problem.

The French Jean Laherrere and Jean Luc Wingert made and awesome conference on how the economic crisis can affect P.O.. According to them well see a bump, first production will go down and some actions *may* be taken, but then production will go up again one last time and all actions will be stopped, after that 2 or 3 years increase its down for ever.

Also a guy from the stock market gave a interesting speech on speculation and how it all works on the speculation market. His advice if you want to invest in the market was: don't gather too much information, just act like a monkey.

Charles A.S Hall gave an interesting speech on economy too.

I'm forgetting some other speaches, but most of all were really interesting

I talked to some of the speakers and when I asked them what to do to prepare all of them said words like food gardens and bicycles and getting out of large cities, no one believes this is gonna keep going for long, no one. So really, after listening to all the experts and smart people my motivation to move towards a sustainable life has gone up to the sky, I see no other option, staying here and doing the job-car-mortgage-college for my kids thing its just not gonna happen.

I'll try to write more latter

Some humor from the meeting:
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Last edited by Ferretlover on Fri 20 Feb 2009, 12:03:29, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Merged with THE ASPO Thread.
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Re: Went to the ASPO meeting and I have a 4 letter word for

Unread postby Leanan » Tue 21 Oct 2008, 07:46:45

The way to solve technical problems until now has always been to pour more oil into the problem.


I love that quote. Who said it?
"The problems of today will not be solved by the same thinking that produced the problems in the first place." - Albert Einstein
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Re: Went to the ASPO meeting and I have a 4 letter word for

Unread postby ReverseEngineer » Tue 21 Oct 2008, 07:53:21

Leanan wrote:
The way to solve technical problems until now has always been to pour more oil into the problem.
I love that quote. Who said it?

My dad, a banker for Chase Manhattan in the 70s put it this way:

"There is no problem so big you cannot solve by throwing enough money at it".

This kind of aphorism has been around for a good long while.
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