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THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

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THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Wed 30 Nov 2016, 18:59:58

Once upon a time, pup55 wrote the initial rules for this game in the 2009 PO.com Oil Price Challenge (in italics). My corrections are in brackets.

Rules:
1. Anyone can participate. Everyone can only enter once. There is no charge to enter. Side bets are encouraged, however.

2. Each participant is to make four guesses: The high, the low, the closing, and the average price on December 30, [2017]

We will use the Cushing OK NYMEX Futures Contract #1 from the EIA table. Note that this only gives daily closing prices, not intraday prices, for those who wish to factor this into your calculations.

Winners will be determined as soon as they post the December 30 price, which will be a few days into [2016]

3. [PeakOiler] will be the official tabulator [until further notice*]. Entries will be allowed until January 5, [2017] You can edit your entry if you want before then, but I will record the official entries at that point.

4. The winner in each category (high, low, close, and average) will be regarded with reverence, and generally declared to have superior intellect and/or clairvoyant powers, and get abundant respect from the fellow forum dwellers. Nothing bad will happen if you are wrong.

Special note: In light of the wild fluctuations in the oil price during the past year [2008], anyone who submits a forecast at all will be showered with respect from the forum dwellers just for entering.

5. I have a separate thread elsewhere to capture forecasts from the media and famous talking heads and other agencies on this important topic. We will of course hold them accountable for their forecasts, needless to say.

[Rule change: Please post forecasts from outside sources in this thread.]

6. Those who wish to forecast the WTI price in Euros may also feel free to do so. Those who wish to forecast an average price for the year may also feel free. [See Rule change #2]

7. Other rules will be made up as we go.
[The rule I added last year was if the player is banned from PO.com, that player should be disqualified and deleted from the scorecard.]

8. Note that per the above, anyone who puts down a prediction has moral superiority and has extra artistic license to critique the predictions of any of the industry or media experts, at least for the next year. Also, feel free to include whatever your forecasting method, logic, or theory is, if you have one.

Let the forecasting begin!


The primary EIA reference is:

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_fut_s1_d.htm

Here is the initial list of players, sorted alphabetically, based on a few posts I've read:

Image

Please post your guesses for the Challenge by the deadline in the rules above!

Thanks!
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 01 Dec 2016, 00:28:20

With respect, from context, I presume the final date given in rule number 2 should be [2018], not [2016].
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby salinsky » Thu 01 Dec 2016, 00:59:05

I see many surprises coming in the New Year. Prices to go above $60 at some point, but not linger long.
I will post my usual winning guesses when they appear in the air in front of me as they are wont to do. No rounding off next year.
Good luck to all.
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Thu 01 Dec 2016, 04:00:17

Outcast_Searcher wrote:With respect, from context, I presume the final date given in rule number 2 should be [2018], not [2016].


Yes, you are correct. Pardon my oversight of the edit.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Tue 06 Dec 2016, 21:11:31

Based on a few comments made in the 2016 Oil Price Challenge thread, I've updated the list with a few more names, but I haven't seen any guesses in this thread.

Please help me update the list of players at least, then post your numbers by the deadline. If we can't get to a minimum of 20 players for the 2017 game, then it's over.

At this time, sorted alphabetically, I have:

kublikhan
Observerbrb
PeakOiler
Quinny
Revi
salinsky and
SteinarN

Anyone else going to play?
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby BahamasEd » Tue 06 Dec 2016, 21:30:22

I'm In,

High 49
Low 32
Avg 42
Close 37
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 06 Dec 2016, 21:52:18

Last year the oil price was plummeting in late December and folks were revising their low number down lower and lower right up to the end of the month.

I wonder if we'll see a lot of price action right at the end of the year again. :)

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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby farmlad » Tue 06 Dec 2016, 22:11:43

I'll go with
High 50
Low 26
close 37
average 41
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 07 Dec 2016, 01:26:03

I plan to play. But as plant noted above, I want to have more December data so I can come up with my random wrong guesses with more recent market data! :roll:

Trying to guess market prices -- I'm smart enough not to do that with my investments, but I still play this game.

Oh well. I guess it keeps me off the street and from buying lottery tickets! :)
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby dolanbaker » Wed 07 Dec 2016, 03:13:44

I’m in, but will provide my considered analysis* nearer the time.

*or just take a wild guess! :)
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby GASMON » Wed 07 Dec 2016, 05:19:42

2017 Price in US Dollars

High 67
Low 49
Close 62
Average 59

Gas
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Cog » Wed 07 Dec 2016, 06:27:52

Add me to the list. My guesses to come later.
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Wed 07 Dec 2016, 06:36:26

Thanks guys.

Here's the updated list:

Image

I'll tweak my numbers before the deadline.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby careinke » Wed 07 Dec 2016, 06:38:29

I'm in, you can just put my name on the bottom of the list as that is the position I usually hold.
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Wed 07 Dec 2016, 06:39:21

Cog wrote:Add me to the list. My guesses to come later.


Thanks Cog and careinke. I just uploaded and posted the image before I saw your posts. I got y'all down.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Pops » Wed 07 Dec 2016, 08:29:16

I see there are lots of ETP adherents— zeros across the board!

lol

I'll play, this will be a fun year.
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Revi » Thu 08 Dec 2016, 09:44:59

I'm in with a high of $54.18, a low of $32 and a close of $46.16. Average of $43
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Subjectivist » Thu 08 Dec 2016, 12:25:35

High 91.11
Low 44.44
Close 73.33
Average 67.77
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Thu 08 Dec 2016, 15:34:09

OK, here's the updated list:

Image

Please review your guesses. Although I do a quick review of the data entry, I have made errors in the past.
We just need a few more players for the game!

I know Tanada really wants to play, :lol: and Sumyungai (sic?) mentioned once upon a time that (s)he would play.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Beefski » Thu 08 Dec 2016, 17:28:46

If I win I'm going to get it on a T-Shirt!
Hi: 67.5
Lo: 42.3
Close: 58.4
Avg: 53.7
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