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THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 29 Dec 2016, 23:48:28

PeakOiler wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:What I recall, and see when I look at a WTI chart is that WTI averaged roughly $90+ish from, say, mid-2010 through mid-2014. That looks nothing like your chart. So if your chart isn't historical WTI prices, what is it, please?

Example of a WTI chart I just perused to check my recollection:

http://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-o ... tory-chart


OS: The chart I posted above is the range each year, not the average price.

Duh. OK. Got it. Somehow I missed that -- the range for 2008 was so huge I just (wrongly) assumed that couldn't be what it was, without checking.

My bad, and thanks for the clarification.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Fri 30 Dec 2016, 07:40:19

I just think its interesting to see how volatile prices have become in the last 10-12 years. What would the Oil Price Challenge be like if the range was only $3-$5 like it was in 1983 & 1984! lol :o

btw, the chart is based on the EIA data (Excel) at
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_fut_s1_d.htm
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby careinke » Fri 30 Dec 2016, 14:10:10

OK,

High: 66.33
Low: 23.33
Close: 24.30
Average: 42.30
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 30 Dec 2016, 15:56:13

pstarr wrote:
careinke wrote:OK,

High: 66.33
Low: 23.33
Close: 24.30
Average: 42.30


What would drive crude prices back down to levels not seen since the 1990's, a supply glut or demand dearth? If a glut, where do the new supplies come from? If it's falling demand then it would have to be substitution. What are the alternatives?

What are your guesses pstarr? Inquiring minds want to know. :)
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Fri 30 Dec 2016, 16:32:09

pstarr wrote:vt it's careinke's guess, not mine. I don't do economic predictions. It's a game for the playa's.

Now regarding the California drought: I've posted some odds on it ending by Jan 1. Sadly no one took me up on it (:


Awww, c'mon pstarr! It's just for fun! You don't like having a little fun? (fyi: I don't invest in the stock market, so I'm not really a "playa".)

And where's Tanada? I think she would do well in this game.

Don't forget that today is the last market day of 2016. The final deadline for making or changing your guesses should be before next Thursday when the EIA report comes out. (There is a one-day delay due to the holiday).
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Fri 30 Dec 2016, 16:59:48

pstarr wrote:It seems the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, India's demonetisation of ₹500 and ₹1,000 banknotes, gold-pricing and the end of the petro dollar could effect crude pricing in some weird way that is way above my pay grade. Plus there's that peak oil thing. and ETP. So I'll go with with careinke wrote:

High: 66.33
Low: 23.33
Close: 24.30
Average: 42.30


Welcome aboard, Pete!

Reminder: There are two sorts to the scorecard data. The first sort is by overall difference, the second sort is by name (alphabetically). So even though y'all may be tied at the hip all this next year, careinke will beat you! :o
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Fri 30 Dec 2016, 17:33:42

Here's the scorecard so far:

Image

Note that I've changed my guesses just a bit.
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby BahamasEd » Fri 30 Dec 2016, 18:03:12

My final prediction is

High $56
Low $32
Close $37
Avg $42
The total energy cost of producing and delivering a gallon of gasoline to the end consumer must be less than the energy in a gallon of gasoline for it to be commercially viable.
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby careinke » Fri 30 Dec 2016, 20:25:14

pstarr wrote:
careinke wrote:OK,

High: 66.33
Low: 23.33
Close: 24.30
Average: 42.30


What would drive crude prices back down to levels not seen since the 1990's, a supply glut or demand dearth? If a glut, where do the new supplies come from? If it's falling demand then it would have to be substitution. What are the alternatives?


Global economic collapse. :)
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Fri 30 Dec 2016, 21:19:36

High- $99
Low- $44
Close- $88
Average- $66
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 31 Dec 2016, 14:23:10

Put me down for

HIGH 75
LOW 45
CLOSE 65
AVERAGE 55

Thanks!
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 31 Dec 2016, 16:09:32

Low $52.50
Average $63.00
High $74.00
Close $65.00
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Cog » Sat 31 Dec 2016, 16:24:12

High: 60.20
Low: 50.10
Close: 53.25
Average: 53.25
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 31 Dec 2016, 17:53:02

Cog wrote:High: 60.20
Low: 50.10
Close: 53.25
Average: 53.25

Your predictions call for a very boring year. That would be nice. :)
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby kublikhan » Sat 31 Dec 2016, 18:45:06

low: $45
high: $60
close: $55
average: $55
The oil barrel is half-full.
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby salinsky » Sun 01 Jan 2017, 01:16:03

My guesses. Low $46.18
High $62.12
Close $58.10
Average $56.09

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