[dbruning]

High: 73
Low: 45
Close: 62
Avg: 60

My strategy is to go with the crowd's average guess, but then add 10% to account for the "it's higher than expected" factor....i'm considering doing that to all estimates from now on as things always seem to be pricier than anticipated or go to hell faster than expected hehehe

Let's see how this strategy performs

[PeakOiler]

One of the things I do to help with my estimates is to guess what the range might be, based on historical data and what i think it might be the next year. For example, look at this chart:



The 2017 column is an estimate. Then after reading numerous articles with regard to future prices by various agencies and organizations, I make my guesses.

[Revi]

I was worried about my big guess, but then oil dropped again today. Even with production cuts it's staying around $50.

Interesting...

Were you expecting the price to go to $100/bbl. This is a relatively modest cut and it has achieved what it was meant to do. Establish a bottom support level. As long as the OPEC partners don't cheat, then it should enable them to do so.

I suspect you are letting that ETP model interfere with your common sense.

I am.

Can I change my high price to $56? That would change my average to around $44. Thanks!

[PeakOiler]

Here's the updated list:



Changes to one's guesses can be made before the first EIA report with 2017 data in early January.

[Subjectivist]

Here's the updated list:



Changes to one's guesses can be made before the first EIA report with 2017 data in early January.

So based on the list so far I should be several up from dead bottom when the new year starts.

[AutomaticEarth]

Please add me to the list. I'll think about the values later on. Thanks.

[PeakOiler]

High: $81
Low: $48
End: $79
Average: $59

I've corrected the spelling of your handle in the list. Oops! Sorry 'bout that!

(I'm reviewing the thread to make sure I haven't made other data entry errors.)

[PeakOiler]

Please add me to the list. I'll think about the values later on. Thanks.

Welcome aboard to our little game of doom!

[PeakOiler]

So based on the list so far I should be several up from dead bottom when the new year starts.

The list is currently shown alphabetically. Once there are price data in January, the list will be sorted by overall difference. You may still have a chance for the bottom!

[dolanbaker]

I will be changing my low price at the start of the year as I expect that will be the lowest price all year. (currently 52 USD)

[BahamasEd]

And I was thinking of changing my High price, as I expect that will be the highest price all year

[KilonBerlin]

What is the normal situation on the oil market? Contango or Backwardation?! I always thought its Contango when the current price is high and Backwardation when the actual price is low...

I think there is only a small window between 45 and 60$, we saw already how fast US production rebounded after OPEC did not only talk but presented a real plan. The usual weekly Report for 12/02/2016 said US production was: 8,697mbpd, price increased a bit earlier and already the 12/09/2016 report said the production was: 8,796mbpd.

This is a 99,000 barrel per day increase in 7 days!

I believe the plans for cars with better efficiency were already longer available, but the European Union and its "classes" and maybe similiar US/Canadian plans said: Reduce your co² output by xy%... and it did not take long and we had Euro 5 (now even Euro 6 was introduced and we already got these cars produced now,

in such a short time research/development, testing and production is impossible I would say. Cars which used to take 9 to 10 liters per 100 kilometers officially now have an average of ~5 liters... I think the last 10 years reduced the demand more than in the 30 years before.. The US had a high driven miles in 2016, with a new peak predicted for 2017, but consumption still will be lower than the current peak year (I think 2005 was the driven miles peak).

Everyone knows that they use every possible trick to get a better rating in the tests done in labs. The cars which are used to test the demand never see a street at their official fuel demand testing, I do not know why they do not change this, but at least it is a comparison method between different models.

[PeakOiler]

Make your specific guesses please KB.

Just a reminder that time is getting short to make or change your guesses!

I noted that WTI is at or above $53.84 today according to cx-portal.com, which would put me only 26 cents behind Salinsky We'll see about that in the EIA report next week. I could still take 2nd place with just a bit higher price before the end of the year!

Looks like GASMON will win the 2016 Oil Price Challenge this year! I wish I had made my average guess higher for 2016! Rats! Oh well...

[tita]

Just for the fun and wild guesses. 2017 may be surprising. Unlike 2016, we don't have increased production from Iran... But Lybia and Nigeria could push prices lower while OPEC do increase. Shale oil production should stabilized at some point.

High: 76.66$
Low: 49.5$
Average: 62$
Ending: 74.5$

[dolanbaker]

High 71
Low: 47
Close: 68
Average: 58

I would like to revise my low to 52 as I expect that this is the low point of the year, the only way is up.

[Outcast_Searcher]

OK. I'll stop procrastinating and make my guesses.

High: 77
Low: 41
Close: 65
Avg: 59

If nothing else, this is a good exercise in humility, re our economic forecasting prowess.

[Outcast_Searcher]

One of the things I do to help with my estimates is to guess what the range might be, based on historical data and what i think it might be the next year. For example, look at this chart:



The 2017 column is an estimate. Then after reading numerous articles with regard to future prices by various agencies and organizations, I make my guesses.

With respect, I get your method (and sounds dandy to me - given how bad we collectively are, you could use random number generators,and you'd be fine ) but I don't understand your chart.

What I recall, and see when I look at a WTI chart is that WTI averaged roughly $90+ish from, say, mid-2010 through mid-2014. That looks nothing like your chart. So if your chart isn't historical WTI prices, what is it, please?

Example of a WTI chart I just perused to check my recollection:

http://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-o ... tory-chart


(Just curious, I already submitted the random numbers for my guesses. )

[Outcast_Searcher]

What is the normal situation on the oil market? Contango or Backwardation?! I always thought its Contango when the current price is high and Backwardation when the actual price is low...

I'm no expert, but I do tend to keep an eye on various financial markets.

In my experience, generally the Crude Oil markets tend to be in contango in normal times, like many futures. I think the concept is this reflects anticipated costs like storage costs.

In general, again in my experience, when the oil market gets very weak, then backwardation tends to be the rule.

Now, my experience in Futures trading is limited, so please don't accept my personal experience as "the truth" -- it's MY experience based on when I was paying attention.

There are NO hard and fast rules for this kind of thing. Currently, for example, it looks like the WTI futures are generally in Contango, mostly ranging between $55.50ish and $58ish once you get to spring '17, and higher than spot for all futures contracts except Feb. '17, unless I missed something.

https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes ... ll-futures

...

Instead of trying to confirm or deny your casual thoughts on what contango and backwardation mean, I'll just provide definitions from a credible source, which agree with my understanding of the concepts:

Contango is a situation where the futures price (or forward price) of a commodity is higher than the spot price.

Normal backwardation, also sometimes called backwardation, is the market condition wherein the price of a forward or futures contract is trading below the expected spot price at contract maturity.

(My source is Wiki: I like Wiki for definitions as it tends to use comprehensible English instead of playing specialist or lawyer games with the words. YMMV.)

[PeakOiler]

What I recall, and see when I look at a WTI chart is that WTI averaged roughly $90+ish from, say, mid-2010 through mid-2014. That looks nothing like your chart. So if your chart isn't historical WTI prices, what is it, please?

Example of a WTI chart I just perused to check my recollection:

http://www.macrotrends.net/1369/crude-o ... tory-chart

OS: The chart I posted above is the range each year, not the average price.

[Subjectivist]

I feel good about my numbers. I think I will come in much higher in the ranking a year from now.