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THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Thu 12 Jan 2017, 15:38:54

SteinarN wrote:We have had some late joiners before, so I'm sure Peak Oiler will let you in if you put up a good guess and ask him politely :)

But I warn you, your numbers in the chart will be in gray colour :razz:


Danke.

I am a laid back judge, but I would like to read what other players think. We could take a vote from the players where the majority would decide. One purpose of the deadline is to just help me get the scorecard correct and posted in a timely manner. The main reason for the deadline is for fairness between all the players after all...

I could send you a copy of the Excel workbook, and you could enter your numbers. Or I could, as SteinarN suggested, enter your guesses in gray and italic font.

What do you think, guys?
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 12 Jan 2017, 16:10:08

PeakOiler wrote:What do you think, guys?

I don't care either way. It's a friendly contest and we're guessing. So I think that as long as there is a reasonably prompt deadline (say for example, in Jan.) that it's fine -- as long as people playing can change their guesses up to the "hard deadline".

Now, OTOH, I think it would be manifestly unfair and against the spirit of the thing if we let any latecomers enter by, say Thanksgiving, so I think we DO need to have some kind of a hard deadline in the relatively short term.

Since I'm a terrible guesser, it's not like I ever do well in these things anyway, so take my opinion with a grain of salt. :wink:
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby SteinarN » Thu 12 Jan 2017, 16:16:19

And one other thing, if some major event had happened causing the price of oil to collapse or skyrocket between the ordinary deadline and any late guess it would be unfair. But as it is now not much, if anything, regarding the oil price have happened since the deadline.
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby dolanbaker » Thu 12 Jan 2017, 17:45:41

As we're still at the start of the year, it seems reasonable to allow late entries, just have them marked as such.
Another week or so will be too late IMHO.
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Subjectivist » Thu 12 Jan 2017, 18:33:54

I would say you can join for a week after the regular deadline but your numbers and name are distinguished from the rest somehow. Its a friendly game with no stakes but bragging rights, but I don't think the grace period should be a whole month, it changes the feel of the game.
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Cog » Thu 12 Jan 2017, 18:41:09

The deadline has passed.

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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby salinsky » Fri 13 Jan 2017, 01:48:42

Okay, a one time deal,and never again.
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Revi » Fri 13 Jan 2017, 11:55:32

We should have a hard deadline of the 15th of January. IMHO...
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Fri 13 Jan 2017, 16:31:36

Thanks for all the comments, suggestions, and opinions. I will include KilonBerlin in the game and you will see the updated scorecard next week. His name will appear in gray font and italicized indicating the late entry.

This will be the only late entry allowed this year.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 13 Jan 2017, 17:22:35

[quote="PeakOiler"]Thanks for all the comments, suggestions, and opinions. I will include KilonBerlin in the game and you will see the updated scorecard next week. His name will appear in gray font and italicized indicating the late entry.

This will be the only late entry allowed this year.[/quote]
That's fair enough.
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Thu 19 Jan 2017, 13:42:42

Below is the revised and updated scorecard.

Image

I think politics will have more effect on the price this year than from other factors.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby salinsky » Thu 19 Jan 2017, 18:25:46

Give the guy a break, and he immediately knocks me down a notch. We've got a long way to go until the end of the year.
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Revi » Tue 24 Jan 2017, 21:55:01

It's going to be an interesting year! Do you think Trump's opening up the Dakota Access and Keystone pipelines will make a difference? I'll bet it drives down the price of WTI because now all that nasty tar sands crap will get blended in.

Just a thought...
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Subjectivist » Wed 25 Jan 2017, 12:57:05

Revi wrote:It's going to be an interesting year! Do you think Trump's opening up the Dakota Access and Keystone pipelines will make a difference? I'll bet it drives down the price of WTI because now all that nasty tar sands crap will get blended in.

Just a thought...


I doubt that, the southern KXL pipeline that opened in 2012-13 was built to export that Canadian oil to third parties. If you bring in more Canadian with the northern section it will just increase exports through the ports in the GOM.
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 25 Jan 2017, 13:13:49

How much more tilbit will move through those pipelines then is already being shipped by rail and truck? Not much I'm thinking as the pipelines will cut shipping costs and improve safety but by themselves won't produce anymore oil at the wellhead or processing plant. Higher prices on the other hand in the future will increase production activity and that might change the product mix.
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Cog » Wed 25 Jan 2017, 13:36:39

I sort of bet on low volatility, which explains my very narrow range between high and low. That is based on my belief that OPEC will be able to stick to their cuts. They don't have a good history of doing so, so we shall see.
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 25 Jan 2017, 14:21:43

PeakOiler wrote:Below is the revised and updated scorecard.

Image

I think politics will have more effect on the price this year than from other factors.


Suggestion, to make the grid more readable could you place all the figures in the same format? $DD.CC, two dollar and two cent columns? This year nobody guessed over $99.99 lol or it would be $DDD.CC :-D . My low guess is showing as 52.5 instead of 52.50 and it bugs my OCD part of the brain.
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Thu 02 Feb 2017, 06:07:44

Prices have been pretty steady. Not much change in the standings:

Image
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 02 Feb 2017, 08:05:27

Hey I slipped ahead of ObserverBrb based on our average guess. :o A little more saber rattling between the Donald and Iran and I'll be moving right up.
On second thought I'm fine just where we are. :cry:
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Re: THE 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby salinsky » Sat 11 Feb 2017, 14:14:40

An update coming?

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