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THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Mon 30 Nov 2015, 09:32:02

OK, here we go again!
It's time to start thinking about your guesses for 2016. Make (or change) your guesses by January 5th, 2016.

Here are the rules:

Once upon a time, pup55 wrote the initial rules for this game in the 2009 PO.com Oil Price Challenge (in italics). My corrections are in brackets.

Rules:
1. Anyone can participate. Everyone can only enter once. There is no charge to enter. Side bets are encouraged, however.

2. Each participant is to make three guesses: The high, the low, and the closing price on December 31, [2016]

We will use the Cushing OK NYMEX Futures Contract #1 from the EIA table. Note that this only gives daily closing prices, not interday intraday prices, for those who wish to factor this into your calculations.

Winners will be determined as soon as they post the December 31 price, which will be a few days into [2016]

3. [PeakOiler] will be the official tabulator [until further notice]. Entries will be allowed until January 5, [2016] You can edit your entry if you want before then, but I will record the official entries at that point.

4. The winner in each category (high, low and close) will be regarded with reverence, and generally declared to have superior intellect and/or clairvoyant powers, and get abundant respect from the fellow forum dwellers. Nothing bad will happen if you are wrong.

Special note: In light of the wild fluctuations in the oil price during the past year [2008], anyone who submits a forecast at all will be showered with respect from the forum dwellers just for entering.

5. I have a separate thread elsewhere to capture forecasts from the media and famous talking heads and other agencies on this important topic. We will of course hold them accountable for their forecasts, needless to say.

[Rule change: Please post forecasts from outside sources in this thread.]

6. Those who wish to forecast the WTI price in Euros may also feel free to do so. Those who wish to forecast an average price for the year may also feel free.

7. Other rules will be made up as we go.
[The rule I added last year was if the player is banned from PO.com, that player shall be disqualified and deleted from the scorecard.]

8. Note that per the above, anyone who puts down a prediction has moral superiority and has extra artistic license to critique the predictions of any of the industry or media experts, at least for the next year. Also, feel free to include whatever your forecasting method, logic, or theory is, if you have one.

Let the forecasting begin!


Good luck!
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Mon 30 Nov 2015, 10:07:54

My initial guesses are:
High 69
Low 22
Close 51
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Observerbrb » Mon 30 Nov 2015, 11:59:14

High 55
Low 37
Close 42
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby dolanbaker » Mon 30 Nov 2015, 12:23:57

High 66
Low 40
close 60

Could I get it so wrong two years in a row....
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Pops » Mon 30 Nov 2015, 12:38:51

I'm gonna use the force, because my analysis has been worse and worse

120
20
100 close
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby AutomaticEarth » Mon 30 Nov 2015, 13:36:45

High 72
Low 35
Close 67
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Revi » Mon 30 Nov 2015, 14:54:25

I am going to guess that the price will be within these bounds.

High $60, low $20 and close of $30.

This might be my most scientific guess yet. Maybe I'll do better this year...
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Mon 30 Nov 2015, 15:35:23

I would like to propose a change to the game. Not only should we guess the high, low, and close prices, we should also guess what we think the AVERAGE price of WTI will be at the end of the year. A running difference in the AVERAGE will be posted in the scorecard as the year progresses, just like the Close Diff is now. The average will be calculated from the EIA’s downloadable spreadsheet by averaging the prices listed in the spreadsheet, not the calendar average. In other words, weekends and holidays will not be included in calculating the average price.

I can easily add another column to spreadsheet. The question is, how much weight shall we put on the average guess? Or should we simply add the difference of the average guess to the Overall Diff total and then sort the ranking that way?

The reason I suggest the change is that a lot of articles I’ve read often only venture an estimate of the average oil price for the year. The opinions and information offered in those articles I sometimes use in considering my guesses, depending on the source.

What do y’all think?
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby dolanbaker » Mon 30 Nov 2015, 15:48:05

I would prefer to see a difference relative to Brent (international) oil price, eg -$5 at the end of the year (WTI $44, Brent $49).
The Brent price is relevant as the US imports oil priced relative to Brent.
Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by rulers as useful.:Anonymous
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Mon 30 Nov 2015, 16:35:54

dolanbaker wrote:I would prefer to see a difference relative to Brent (international) oil price, eg -$5 at the end of the year (WTI $44, Brent $49).
The Brent price is relevant as the US imports oil priced relative to Brent.


Are you suggesting we consider the difference in just the average price of Brent and WTI? Or the difference of each category of High, Low, Close, and Average between Brent and WTI? That would require a lot more work and more columns in each scorecard if we compare between indices.

A separate game for Brent makes more sense. Pops?
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Pops » Mon 30 Nov 2015, 16:40:10

Actually Brent is nearly as relevant to Americans as WTI since we still import a bunch... but not many were interested last time. I'd be happy to forward the Brent spreadsheet (with history and lots of weird spreadsheet gobbldygook) if anyone feels like working it. Or you could get POers and just down the brent info.
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Mon 30 Nov 2015, 16:50:13

Pops wrote:Actually Brent is nearly as relevant to Americans as WTI since we still import a bunch... but not many were interested last time. I'd be happy to forward the Brent spreadsheet (with history and lots of weird spreadsheet gobbldygook) if anyone feels like working it. Or you could get POers and just down the brent info.


Wasn't jdmartin good with Excel? Perhaps he or another member could track Brent this next year if you don't care to, Pops.

SteinarN: Would you like to volunteer to keep up with the Brent price?

I can send you (or anyone else) a copy of the spreadsheet. Just send me a PM with your email address please.
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby dolanbaker » Mon 30 Nov 2015, 17:20:56

PeakOiler wrote:
dolanbaker wrote:I would prefer to see a difference relative to Brent (international) oil price, eg -$5 at the end of the year (WTI $44, Brent $49).
The Brent price is relevant as the US imports oil priced relative to Brent.


Are you suggesting we consider the difference in just the average price of Brent and WTI? Or the difference of each category of High, Low, Close, and Average between Brent and WTI? That would require a lot more work and more columns in each scorecard if we compare between indices.

A separate game for Brent makes more sense. Pops?

I was thinking just the end of year average, just one column.
Otherwise it's another spreadsheet.
Religion is regarded by the common people as true, by the wise as false, and by rulers as useful.:Anonymous
Our whole economy is based on planned obsolescence.
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Cog » Mon 30 Nov 2015, 17:21:11

I will wait until a decision is made about the rules and I will throw in. I won this once and look forward to a repeat.
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby obixman » Mon 30 Nov 2015, 17:37:54

Well - this year was a bust for me, but maybe next year???????

High - 68
Low - 43
Close 63

Modified a little bit 'cause we must remember - next year is an election year......

If the rules change I'll add the additional values.....
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Mon 30 Nov 2015, 20:18:41

I like the idea of including the end of the year closing price Brent-WTI spread. The difference in the closing prices between WTI and Brent will be included in the Overall Diff.

But I'd still like to include the average WTI price guess in the game.

So add the average price to your guesses as well. Thanks!

I'll post a preliminary scorecard soon.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Mon 30 Nov 2015, 20:39:11

OK, I've been browsing the EIA site for Brent Futures and cannot find a reference. All I've seen is the Brent SPOT price. So that means we'll need to guess the WTI SPOT price and not the FUTURES price for the best comparison. If anyone can find an EIA table of Brent FUTURES, please post the link.
Thanks!
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Mon 30 Nov 2015, 21:32:22

Here is the link to the Crude Oil SPOT prices which we will use as the reference for our little game:
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Tue 01 Dec 2015, 11:17:16

Below is the preliminary scorecard:

Image

Please estimate what you think the average price will be next year and I'll complete the spreadsheet.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby obixman » Tue 01 Dec 2015, 13:18:12

OK - the average will be 57.

There - I've said it, I've taken my stand, I've bet the family farm.... what's that - the only thing at stake is bragging rights?

Well - I'll say it anyway.
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