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THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Observerbrb » Tue 06 Dec 2016, 20:05:42

Quinny wrote:I've worked out the best way to prove the ETP wrong would be for me to use it to predict next years PO.com price challenge.


Been there, done that.

Last year, I finished fifth. This year, I took a hit, and I'm now 11th. I thought that the price was going to spike after summer (around 55$) and then go back to 40$ at the end of the year. I was basically presuming a similar, though less-drastic, pattern to play out this year compared to last year's evolution.

To be honest, forum users were given the opportunity of changing our previous forecast after the dramatic and massive oil slump at the beginning of the year. I didn't do it, because I didn't want to. I am trying to use the ETP model in a honest way to participate in this game.

For next Year's game, I suppose that I would say HIGH between 50-55$, LOW between 30-35$, Average 40$ and Close 35-40$ as well.

I wish I would be the last!
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Wed 07 Dec 2016, 18:34:08

A new record high was reported this week:

Image

I was slightly off with my estimate above. Salinksy still holds first place by a nose of just 86 cents in front of GASMON. I'm $4.74 behind GASMON.

I need the high price to get up just a few more dollars! Time is getting short!
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Wed 14 Dec 2016, 18:52:17

Another high price for the year was reported this week and a change at #1 :shock: :

Image

I know now that I guessed too low on the average for the year, but I'm OK with being in the top of the list (the bronze medal) at least for a little while. :)
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 14 Dec 2016, 18:59:33

I'll settle for not being dead last.
Wait till next year!!!
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Thu 22 Dec 2016, 11:24:16

Another new high price for the year was reported this week:

Image

Looks like the rally I predicted came just a few weeks too late...
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Thu 29 Dec 2016, 16:12:16

As of 12/27, the only change to the standings from the 12/19 scorecard were that dolanbaker and Observerbrb switched spots.

The final scorecard for the 2016 Oil Price Challenge will be posted next week.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Thu 05 Jan 2017, 15:18:57

Here's the final 2016 scorecard:

Image

Congratulations to GASMON!

I ended up just $1.02 behind Salinsky. My average price guess was my downfall.

Observerbrb guessed the closest to the high price. Farmlad guessed the closest to the low price.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby careinke » Thu 05 Jan 2017, 17:50:29

GASMON wrote:Yipee !!!! Won something at last!

I'll be honest and say it was purely guesswork at the time. I have entered this years challenge based again on pure guesswork - but interesting developments await us all in 2017 - after Brexit & Trump anything can happen.

Gas


Congrats Oh Wise Man, You have my utmost respect, at least until next year at this time.
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby dolanbaker » Thu 05 Jan 2017, 17:59:17

The highest I've been all year ;)
The end of the oversupply came too late.
Well done, good guesses Gasmon :p
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 05 Jan 2017, 18:04:40

Gasmon, you are now king of the PO.com Oil Price Challenge! Wear your crown proudly. But beware, usurpers are lurking in the shadows waiting to steal the crown next year.
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby salinsky » Thu 05 Jan 2017, 20:30:07

GASMON Congratulations! I led the pack a great deal of the time, and then OPEC makes promises that drove the price up and knocked me down a peg. I was second place last year also.
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 06 Jan 2017, 07:53:27

We bow down and kowtow to the supreme Gasman.
At least until next year. :-D
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby salinsky » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 03:02:22

PeakOiler Congratulations for taking the bronze.
SAL
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 12:53:17

Thanks, Salinsky.

I crunched some numbers in the workbook and determined the percentage of the time (days) the following players held 1st place last year:

salinsky 110 43%
AgentR11 92 36%
EdwinSm 22 9%
Pops 15 6%
GASMON 14 6%

The EIA reported on 253 of 365 days last year. (e.g. 110/253*100 = 43%)

AgentR11 should get a hat tip as well for the duration at #1.
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby salinsky » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 15:39:37

AgentR11 should get a hat tip as well for the duration at #1. ? I thought you listed me at #1.
SAL
If you believe something is true, then it must be true or you wouldn't believe it was true, therefore, everything you think is true, is true, or is it?
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 17:42:38

PeakOiler wrote:Thanks, Salinsky.

I crunched some numbers in the workbook and determined the percentage of the time (days) the following players held 1st place last year:

salinsky 110 43%
AgentR11 92 36%
EdwinSm 22 9%
Pops 15 6%
GASMON 14 6%

The EIA reported on 253 of 365 days last year. (e.g. 110/253*100 = 43%)

AgentR11 should get a hat tip as well for the duration at #1.


It could be interesting if you put up the list from after the first report and last report side by side to show how players changed positions from start to finish of the year.
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Re: THE 2016 po.com Oil Price Challenge

Unread postby PeakOiler » Sat 07 Jan 2017, 18:59:33

salinsky wrote:AgentR11 should get a hat tip as well for the duration at #1. ? I thought you listed me at #1.
SAL


lol salinsky! Of course you got a hat tip! You did make the top of the list for duration after all! And everyone can see that result!

Too bad the year wasn't just a little longer. :lol: I think I would have passed you. :o
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

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