[Revi]

Here we are into October. Oh well, there's always next year....

[PeakOiler]

Thanks PO. I wasn't thinking about challenge so much. Some folks are referring to daily changes in future prices. Those were the guess es I was referring to. Probably not the proper thread to ask.

Since it seems that most articles one reads regarding oil prices are referring to futures prices, I may change the Oil Price Challenge back to futures for the 2017 game. Want to play this year, ROCKMAN?

We still need to find a volunteer to take over this game in the future if y'all want to keep playing. I really think 2017 will be the last year I'll be the scorekeeper. I've done my part and I'm ready to hand off the baton.

Put on your thinking caps, clean off your crystal ball, spin the wheel, keep your eye on world events, place your bets, and get ready for the 2017 po.com Oil Price Challenge.

I'll start the new thread at the end of November. Post your guesses then please.

[PeakOiler]

Here's this week's scorecard:



I think a new high price was reached Tuesday, but we'll have to wait until next week's report.

[Revi]

I wonder what will happen with the price of oil? I think next year it really can't cost more than around $50, and it will drop to $12 by 2020 according to the etp model. We are going to see it become a difficult commodity for most people.

As Sheik Yamani said " the stone age didn't end for lack of stones, and the oil age won't end for lack of oil."

People are going to suffer, and then move on. It's been fun cruising around in our rolling couches, but it looks like we'll have to figure something else out now...

[Subjectivist]

Here's this week's scorecard:



I think a new high price was reached Tuesday, but we'll have to wait until next week's report.

Over on the news page there is an article about maybe hitting $90/bbl relatively soon. If we hit $90 on the last trading day of the year how will that shift things?

[salinsky]

If it hits $90 on the last day of trading, I'll start smoking again.
Sal

[PeakOiler]

Over on the news page there is an article about maybe hitting $90/bbl relatively soon. If we hit $90 on the last trading day of the year how will that shift things?

That would put you near the top, but that's just a rough guess since it's not really possible to estimate an accurate average price if prices got that high and that in turn can make a significant difference in the Overall Diff calculation.

If you want a copy of the spreadsheet so you can play with the numbers (and can use the Sort function of Excel), send me a PM with your email address and I'll send you a copy.

[PeakOiler]

A new high price was reported for the year of $51.59 on October 19th:



Since then, the price has dropped back to about $49.

I suspect that if Trump wins the election, the price of oil will jump a few dollars. But I don't think that will happen.

[Subjectivist]

Seems like every time we cross the $50/bbl mark some big players sell until it falls below. At first I thought this was normal resistance, but it seems like more than that the last couple of cycles.

[vtsnowedin]

Seems like every time we cross the $50/bbl mark some big players sell until it falls below. At first I thought this was normal resistance, but it seems like more than that the last couple of cycles.

Is it not the guys that bought up oil and stored it selling it now to realize their profit?

[Subjectivist]

Seems like every time we cross the $50/bbl mark some big players sell until it falls below. At first I thought this was normal resistance, but it seems like more than that the last couple of cycles.

Is it not the guys that bought up oil and stored it selling it now to realize their profit?

That has been going on for a couple months now but I don't think it has much to do with the traders. Most of the contracts they buy and sell are paper barrels that don't actually represent physical oil.

[SteinarN]

I've had a break from Peak Oil, so i missed this years contest. But I am happy to se it is still very well alive

It is still interesting times though, oil have been cheap for a couple years now, with declining exploration and field completions as a result. So I would not be surprised to se a considerable increase in the oil price in one to two years time.

Based on what I've just said I really ought to participate in the 2017 oil price challenge

[vtsnowedin]

I've had a break from Peak Oil, so i missed this years contest. But I am happy to se it is still very well alive

It is still interesting times though, oil have been cheap for a couple years now, with declining exploration and field completions as a result. So I would not be surprised to se a considerable increase in the oil price in one to two years time.

Based on what I've just said I really ought to participate in the 2017 oil price challenge

Everybody is welcome to play. It is best to keep your position secret until the last day so as to not let others use your observations. This is a cutthroat high stakes game with no prize money!!

[kublikhan]

This is a cutthroat high stakes game with no prize money!!

Indeed. Peakoiler keeps nipping at my heals. I had to beat him down with my shoe to keep my 3rd place ranking.

[salinsky]

Attn: PeakOiler In July, ROCKMAN challenged us guessers to predict the WTI price on the last business day of October. On page 13 you will find my guess and if you scroll down, you will find yours. I'd like to hear ROCKMAN'S response to our guesses.

SAL

[vtsnowedin]

Hey I have not given up yet. There is plenty of time after the election for my high and close to come to pass.

[PeakOiler]

I've had a break from Peak Oil, so i missed this years contest. But I am happy to se it is still very well alive

It is still interesting times though, oil have been cheap for a couple years now, with declining exploration and field completions as a result. So I would not be surprised to se a considerable increase in the oil price in one to two years time.

Based on what I've just said I really ought to participate in the 2017 oil price challenge

Everybody is welcome to play. It is best to keep your position secret until the last day so as to not let others use your observations. This is a cutthroat high stakes game with no prize money!!

Welcome back SteinarN! Congratulations on last year's win!

vtsnowedin: Don't forget that players can change their guesses before the deadline, so in doing that one can throw off other people's guesses that may be copying your guesses! (Deceptive strategy, eh?)

[vtsnowedin]

vtsnowedin: Don't forget that players can change their guesses before the deadline, so in doing that one can throw off other people's guesses that may be copying your guesses! (Deceptive strategy, eh?)

Why I never!!!. ...... Who would??... ... You can't be serious??
Well I at least as an upstanding member of the Peak Oil community would nevah stoop to such Clintonion tactics. At least not until next years game that is.

[Revi]

Well I moved down one, so I am not too happy. Maybe the Colonial pipeline situation will move me back up, but I doubt it...

[PeakOiler]

Here's this week's scorecard:



I'm ready for the rally to begin...