THE 2012 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

[pup55]

You're quite right. Possibilities for chaos are everywhere, as we saw in 2008.

A year ago there was talk that 2012 would finally be the year that demand from Asia would overtake the temporarily spare capacity that the world had because of the economic contraction...but, maybe growth has slowed down in China enough that this will not be the case...

how about this for a scenario: The "Arab Spring" this year happens in Saudi...

[PeakOiler]

Here's what I have so far:



The list is sorted by Overall Difference, then by Name, (descending).

I think everyone is making some good observations and speculations. I'm still crunching some numbers and weighing the possible black swan events (as they hover over us) and their possible effect on the oil prices.

I'll make my guess after Christmas.

[biofuel13]

Well I didn't do so hot this year so I thought why not just use the same numbers again. Ha!

High: $137.52

Low: $74.68

Close: $135.14

[TheAntiDoomer]

High. 114.67
Low. 89.14
Close. 100.32

[Cog]

Hmm the Antidoomer is counting on prolonged economic stagnation, if not contraction. A certain amount of irony at play here.

I'll wait until Dec 31st closing to make my call on this.

[TheAntiDoomer]

Hmm the Antidoomer is counting on prolonged economic stagnation, if not contraction. A certain amount of irony at play here.

I'll wait until Dec 31st closing to make my call on this.

Nah just more supply and increased efficiencies

[Cog]

Cornie to the last drop.

Hey I can't argue with success. You are in second place while I'm in a dismal 13th.

[SeaGypsy]

Ok, before the nuerons get hyper about 2011's result; here goes for 2012.

My logic on pricing since joining this game has kept me going, this year I'm pretty much sticking with it.

WTI:

Low will hold at late $70's. Asia will continue to suck up any oversupply and any price signal under $80 will quickly bounce, as last year and before. The low will be tested, there are too many dark clouds on the horizon to imagine otherwise.

Low $77.60

High will be held back by the usual constraints under 'new normal', only slightly topping this year. This will not come as a result of European or US recovery but from Chindian internal economic engines.

High $118.20

End of year will as usual be dominated by phsycological factors.

Close $99.45

Have fun this year guys! We are in for nearly a decade of this.

[vtsnowedin]

I might as well join in the fun.
High 127
low 83.50
settle 114

[PeakOiler]

For what it's worth:

High: $128.46
Low: $76.73
Close: $104.52

A world event (uncertain political black swan) will push prices higher.
The resulting high price shock will lead to a crash, just as in 2008, but not as severe.

[ObiWan]

How about

110High
80 Low
85 Close

[Cog]

$130 High
$80 Low
$115 Close

[Cog]

*** Amended prediction***
I've decided to amend by prediction and have decided stability in prices will be the rule for the next year. So here it is.

High $105
Low $95
Close $100

[PeakOiler]

I changed your guesses, Cog.

I added the other players to the list and we're up to 25, assuming Pops and pup55 play.

There's still room for more players! Come on readers! Throw your dice!

[Outcast_Searcher]

High $137
Low $87
Close $117

[PeakOiler]

The updated spreadsheet:



I also want to add that I think pup55 should still be the laid back judge of this game. I'm just the scorekeeper. What do you think, pup?

[Pops]

I was happy to see the US economy not crash this year on higher oil prices - stumble (last 2 quarters might as well be recession) but no crash. I think it's not going to get much better because of the oil price but since everyone is treading very carefully, I also think big hiccups aren't likely either. Probably the biggest potential downside would be Republican success in firing half the government.

Oil will start to flow to the GOM from Cushing in the second half, not as much as is needed but enough to get the price closer to Brent. So it boils down to whether the EU can muddle through and will China just continue to cool instead of crash... and of course no GlobalThermoNuclearWar in the Strait!

Overall I think everyone is walking on eggshells, economically speaking (except Achmed) so no big moves - we're in the wedge between non-OECD desire on the downside and OECD Ability to Pay on the upside.

High 115
Low 90
close 110

[PeakOiler]

The EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/uncertainty/

includes a graph of WTI and Brent prices through 2015. (Figure 3)

The source of their info was from Intercontinental Exchange, CME Group.

They project a high of about $101 and a low and closing price of about $98 for WTI. That's a very small range! i.e.: A very conservative estimate.

EIA ended at number 22 in the 2011 Oil Price Challenge "What If" page of my workbook.

[AdTheNad]

This is tricky. Is 2012 the year we see economic collapse dropping the price massively, or a new and bigger arab spring sending prices through the roof? If both happen, the order in which they do will make a huge difference in the price. I think we're a lot better at kicking the economic can than the social unrest can, so up we go, followed by right back down.

High $125
Low $80
Close $95

[careinke]

High 134
low 84
close 101