THE 2012 PO.com Oil Price Challenge

[Pops]

Gonna be hard for me to catch cog or kub if the refineries keep up with the flow from the Seaway, I didn't think it was going to open until later this year. My crystal ball said the economy will take off later in the year and run the price back up over $100.

Kind of a drag to hope the economy heats up so it will raise the price of oil...

[Plantagenet]

Skullduggery is afoot in the 2012 challenge!

My entry (on page one of this thread) included

WTI high = 103

My entry was entered correctly in the first table, but somewhere along the line my WTI high number has been switched from 103 to 135 in the last table, thereby lowering my score ----it appears someone is resorting to underhanded devious subterfuge in the 2012 challenge.

POer---Please return my entry to the actual numbers I entered (and other folks might want to check if their entries have been accidentally altered as well).

[PeakOiler]

Apparently you forgot that you revised your high estimate. From page 5 of this thread:

Only two days until the deadline.

Would you please revise my max estimate upward to $135?

Thanks!

I didn't anticipate that Obama would start off the new year by demanding that Japan, South Korea, China, India. the EU, etc. stop importing Iranian oil, thereby precipitating a major crisis over oil with the Iranians.

While the global economic situation is getting worse and would be expected to drive oil prices down, political miscalculations in 2012 will result in much higher oil prices than would be justified just by the supply/demand situation.

[Plantagenet]

Apparently you forgot that you revised your high estimate.

Only two days until the deadline.

Would you please revise my max estimate upward to $135?

Thanks!

I didn't anticipate that Obama would start off the new year by demanding that Japan, South Korea, China, India. the EU, etc. stop importing Iranian oil, thereby precipitating a major crisis over oil with the Iranians.

While the global economic situation is getting worse and would be expected to drive oil prices down, political miscalculations in 2012 will result in much higher oil prices than would be justified just by the supply/demand situation.

You are right! Just goes to show thats its always best to stick with your first idea.

OK oil price----go higher. more up. higher and H I G H E R.

[Beery1]

Just need four more points to the downside. Come on baby, just a little more - but not too much!

This latest drop has to ring in big changes in the scoreboard. Eleven of the participants have lows of 90 or above, and nine of them are in the top half of the board.

If things don't change much from here, Obiwan is looking pretty good.

[TheAntiDoomer]

I could be wrong, but by my calculation TheAntiDoomer is in 1st place?

The crazy thing is if the current highs and lows stick I think I own everything from like 90-105!

[PeakOiler]

Another new low was reported this week by the EIA:



Now that new low prices are occurring, there will be changes in "the pack."

I expected the current lows to have happened by the end of January or February. Oh well.

The race isn't half over. We will see what happens.

[TheAntiDoomer]

I thought we got down to 89 something? or does the close only count?

[TheAntiDoomer]

Gonna be hard for me to catch cog or kub if the refineries keep up with the flow from the Seaway, I didn't think it was going to open until later this year. My crystal ball said the economy will take off later in the year and run the price back up over $100.

Kind of a drag to hope the economy heats up so it will raise the price of oil...

Pops, are you hoping for the economy to fail?!!?!!!?!?

[Cog]

I thought we got down to 89 something? or does the close only count?

Take your beating like a man.

We still have a half year for more drama.

[TheAntiDoomer]

I thought we got down to 89 something? or does the close only count?

Take your beating like a man.

We still have a half year for more drama.

LOL Cog. IN all seriousness how do we determine the low price? at 3pm close? even if that is the case the new low should make us very close

UPDATE: According to this the May 23 close was 89.30! Bend over COG here i come!

http://www.livecharts.co.uk/futures_com ... orical.php

This puts me around 13.90 and Cog aroud 14.09!!! All Hail TheAntiDoomer and his infinite wisdom!

Unless we are going by Close and not Low, then its 89.90 and Cog may have me by a hair, but I should be close enough to surpass him at 100.3 :D

[PeakOiler]

IN all seriousness how do we determine the low price? at 3pm close? even if that is the case the new low should make us very close

The very first post of this thread gives the clearly stated reference: The EIA. Click on that link. Go to the "Data 1" page (click the tab at the bottom) of the Excel workbook and you will see the WTI Contract price in column B. The closing price is the last entry in column B. The EIA does not report intraday low prices. You do have to have the Excel app or an app that can open an Excel file.

The reference link you see at the top of each scorecard is the html address where you can download the Excel file. The scorecard is a "snapshot" of my modified Excel workbook using the EIA data (copied and pasted.) The reference link in each posted scorecard doesn't work in a jpg file of course.

See http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_fut_s1_d.htm

[Beery1]

Dammit! How can I have gone down a point when the high is still the same and I've got closer to the low than I was last time? The stupid close is messing me up. I think the close shouldn't even count until the final analysis - it is, after all, the final close. The close price before then is irrelevant.

[dolanbaker]

Looks like I've called the low correctly, just need the ME to go silly to hit the high, followed by some sort of climbdown by one side or suchlike.

[PeakOiler]

Dammit! How can I have gone down a point when the high is still the same and I've got closer to the low than I was last time? The stupid close is messing me up. I think the close shouldn't even count until the final analysis - it is, after all, the final close. The close price before then is irrelevant.

Three things:
1. We're using the same rules as pup55 laid down years ago.
2. If you'd like to post your own spreadsheet without the closing price, go for it.
3. The fluctuating closing price is what makes the "race" interesting. After all, changes in the high and low price happen less frequently.

[Beery1]

I wasn't complaining. Just ranting out loud.

I like to rant. My wife sees it as a flaw. She's crazy. My ranting is just proof that I have lovable anger issues.

[PeakOiler]

I wasn't complaining. Just ranting out loud.

I like to rant. My wife sees it as a flaw. She's crazy. My ranting is just proof that I have lovable anger issues.

lol @ Beery1

Actually, I thought of posting a "What If" spreadsheet that would only sort the players by high and low prices.

jdmartin, pup55, and Pops are good with Excel, and referees to check the math is a good thing. If anyone wants a copy of my Excel workbook, please send me an IM. I'd have to send you the Excel file as an email attachment.

[careinke]

Should be some changes this week. Sorry Cob.

[PeakOiler]

Looks like Obiwan will take first place this week.

The EIA doesn't release their report till tomorrow because of the Memorial Day holiday.

[kublikhan]

I need the price of oil to climb back over $100. Help me Obi-Wan Kenobi, you're my only hope.