[ROCKMAN]

"...the US now holds more recoverable oil reserves than both Saudi Arabia and Russia. For US, more than 50% of remaining oil reserves is unconventional shale oil. Texas alone holds more than 60 billion barrels of shale oil according to this new data." Well the Rockman has no problem laughing at such statements. Particularly since there is no DOCUMENTED proof that those numbers or even close to the reality. Show the proof and the Rockman is very well qualified to analyze the data. More so then almost anyone here. And even more important: the Rockman wouldn't be bothered at all if his analysis confirmed their numbers...he doesn't have a dog in the fight. IOW the Rockman doesn't really give a sh*t how much oil is or isn't left to produce in the world.

All he cares about is how much his wells produce. LOL.

[StarvingLion]

Rockman is very well qualified to analyze the data.

Dream on.

The Majors are now going into the Shale Abyss.

They won't get out alive.

[AdamB]

Texas is so broke it cannot even afford a single coal plant any longer. It builds thousands of totally USELESS wind mills.

https://www.wind-watch.org/news/2016/06 ... udumalpet/

Coal is on the way out, forced out by cheap natural gas. And as long as Texas windmills occasionally turn, the electricity they make isn't worthless.

Do you live on this planet, or are you an alien who can't read the newspaper, or understand the most basic information?

"In August 2014, power generation there almost came to a complete stall because of the rains. On some of the worst days, only 2 MW was generated from 5,300 windmills, each of which needs about half an acre of land, with the complete wind farm occupying more than 2,650 acres previously used for agriculture."

5300 WINDMILLS CANNOT EVEN REPLACE 1 COAL PLANT

Well, of course they can't if the wind doesn't blow. This is part of the intermittency problem of renewables. Fortunately, with the US abundance in natural gas and the technology to drill it up at a rate that makes the US the largest producer of natural gas on the planet, we have plenty of resources available to help out that intermittency problem.

Broke Texas is replacing oil with this "green" crap. How come if they have 60 billion barrels of oil? ENRON ....hahaha.

Enron didn't stop Texas from producing the Eagle Ford any more than your claim of everything being worthless stopped the oil world from revolving the other afternoon. The oil world no more cares about your inaccurate proclamation in that regard than it did about Enron going under all those years ago.

[AdamB]

Or is it possible your constant gabbing and verbal wind-generation actually does generate oil reserves? You know? From the CO2

I haven't seen anyone make a viable economic case for turning CO2 into oil. Seems to be missing the valuable H component to create the required chemical composition.

Guess you never heard of Fischer–Tropsch? Ask me if I am surprised?

I have heard of it. But CO2, by itself, just doesn't turn into hydrocarbons with the "H". Certainly after your various "carried away" episodes I cannot make any assumption that you know anything about why CO2 needs "H" to become hydrocarbons. Fischer-Tropsch gets H from methane, biomass, SOMETHING. Fischer-Tropsch doesn't just take CO2 and make hydrocarbons, as you implied.

Write better, and we will understand better. 

[AdamB]

"...the US now holds more recoverable oil reserves than both Saudi Arabia and Russia. For US, more than 50% of remaining oil reserves is unconventional shale oil. Texas alone holds more than 60 billion barrels of shale oil according to this new data." Well the Rockman has no problem laughing at such statements.

Sure, but Rockman is one of those guys who needs to see things to believe them. The CEO of pioneer himself had some interesting things to say about Permian acreage a few years back, and I doubt that oil has gone anywhere.

And are you familiar with Rustadts work? They slide back and forth between reserves and resources rather easily, and we all know the difference between those. Well, some of us do.

The EIA has also focused heavily on the Permian, and the potential there.

Surely Rockman has heard of the potential in the Permian, in particularly RESOURCES, right? The first green field development of this resource was beginning back in early 2015.

http://www.uwyo.edu/eori/technology-tra ... 20pres.pdf

I could argue for 60 billion barrels of SOMETHING recoverable just from this (see slide 5).

http://www.co2conference.net/wp-content ... 2-8-15.pdf

Combined with the very idea of how economically recoverable, technically recoverable, and in-place works, which we know that the EIA is very familiar with:

https://www.eia.gov/workingpapers/pdf/trr.pdf

60 billion isn't even that much of a stretch.

Particularly since there is no DOCUMENTED proof that those numbers or even close to the reality.

Depends on how they got them. The shale revolution itself proves the existence of economically recoverable, the only remaining question using the EIA terminology is what is the in-place amount, and what will future technological and economic changes allow to be developed. I'm betting that the in-place of the unconventionals in the US exceeds 60 billion, so we are talking about economic recoverable versus technical. Technical is easy, it is ALL technically recoverable, so we arrive once more at price.

How much to drill, complete and produce versus the discounted value of the revenue stream.

I never would have believed $10/mcf gas in my lifetime, but it has already come and gone. What do breakeven economics of a 4 BCF Marcellus well look like at $10/mcf? Even Mr Rockman might want a piece of that, if cost to surface is only $0.50/mcf.

Today's technically recoverable, tomorrow's recovered.

Your industry was doing it before you were born Rock, doing it throughout your career, you figure all you'ns are gonn FORGET HOW all of a sudden?

We, and Pers, are counting on your Rock!

Show the proof and the Rockman is very well qualified to analyze the data. More so then almost anyone here. And even more important: the Rockman wouldn't be bothered at all if his analysis confirmed their numbers...he doesn't have a dog in the fight. IOW the Rockman doesn't really give a sh*t how much oil is or isn't left to produce in the world.

You've never heard of the ROZ in the Permian? You've never heard of the kind of resource analysis and quantification that the EIA and USGS do? And Pers? And ICF? ARI? IHS? Really?

No dog in the fight? Are you saying you don't want to claim SOME of the credit for the US becoming the world's largest natural producer, and for having repeaked the US in oil production 40 years after the last one? Come on Rock, grab some credit, you are INDUSTRY!!! If there is a landowner to be screwed over, or a working interest partner to be hosed, you would be right there, smiling over having gotten it over someone! It is what industry does!

All he cares about is how much his wells produce. LOL.

And Pers cares about your wells, and everyone elses. His perspective is quite a bit more broad in scope than yours, but that is alright. You just keep doing your job, and Pers will keep watching and keeping score!

[StarvingLion]

If the "cheap" Shale Gas Phenomenon was real, it would be occuring around the world, especially in the European "Union".

Instead the EU is a brutal dictatorship because the Shale Gas Phenomenon is a Monetary Phenom and the EU is paying the price for part of it. The EU is a deflationary catastrophe.

Spain has already exposed the "renewables" hoax. It completely destroyed their economy and had to be stopped.

Face it, adam...the Majors have to do Shale 2.0 soon because by 2020 those "fantastic" shale wells from the last fiasco will have totally depleted. Shale 2.0 wont help the US economy, only much much more brutal dictatorship. And the panic driven renewable junk will shit can the entire economy worse than Spain.

[StarvingLion]

The Oil "Expert" from Texas tells us EROEI doesn't matter but Italy, Google, etc wouldn't be pursuing the pathetic nonsense of high altitude wind generators flown by Kites unless it did matter:

http://euanmearns.com/high-altitude-win ... /#comments

EROEI is everything and Shale Gas and conventional windmills overall have a very low EROEI.

But when the cronies can send their bills to everyone else, everything looks good.

[AdamB]

So what plays/reserves will jump-start the Texas Miracle?

Future tense? It began years ago, you know, when people were still claiming that texas production would follow the path of some place like the North Sea. Who can IMAGINE that this was once considered to be a valid model once the sine wave pattern of oil production became clear.

Remember when Jeff pulled our leg with this one?

http://scitizen.com/future-energies/do- ... -3388.html

And if you aren't familiar with the potential of the Permian, between the links I already posted and the obvious knowledge of the USGS, EIA, and international petroleum information services, I really can't help you.

[AdamB]

If the "cheap" Shale Gas Phenomenon was real, it would be occuring around the world, especially in the European "Union".

They call it "The Shale Revolution", not "The Cheap Shale Gas Revolution".

I mean, that is as funny as if the peak oilers had declared the sine wave of oil production BEFORE it happened, and then run around saying "well, those bell shaped curve peaks really matter, even if there are 3 or 4 more to come".

Everyone would have laughed the appropriate amount, and no website like LATOC would ever have been formed.

Instead the EU is a brutal dictatorship because the Shale Gas Phenomenon is a Monetary Phenom and the EU is paying the price for part of it. The EU is a deflationary catastrophe.

Is this that invisible deflation that Joe Sixpack can't see, or finally a real one that he can?

Face it, adam...the Majors have to do Shale 2.0 soon because by 2020 those "fantastic" shale wells from the last fiasco will have totally depleted. Shale 2.0 wont help the US economy, only much much more brutal dictatorship. And the panic driven renewable junk will shit can the entire economy worse than Spain.

The Majors didn't get involved all that much in the Shale revolution, so why should they in the 2nd? And this revolution isn't the first, so certainly the next one won't be 2.0. And what brutal dictatorship in the US are you talking about? Do you even LIVE in this universe?

[AdamB]

EROEI is everything........

...ah yes....Mr. Lion lives in one of those other worlds, and not the one we are in...good luck with that Mr Lion!

[AdamB]

Adam, thanks for the schnitzen link. Does it go with sourkraut?

I provided no links to food. Assuming you meant sauerkraut of course? Did reading real information throw off your spell checker?

Okay now Adam down to business: which play (at what price point) will drive increased oil production in Texas?

Not having the kind of all inclusive modeling capabilities that the EIA has with NEMs, the best, and perhaps only answer to this question, is here:

https://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/index.cfm

Hope that helps, but they really are the only game in town, basing their modeling on supply, doing it play by play, allowing economic fundamentals to dictate the answer.

Start with source rock, move on to stratiography, porosity, permeability and end with traps. And you might add on development costs.

Go.

It has already been done. The EIA has working papers showing how they use aggregations of this information in the form of in-place estimates, and you left out WAY too much, changes in price and technology, demand, the economies of scale, completion design changes, the geology defines the size of the container, getting it out economically is all about engineering and economics.

And the EIA knows this...why does it appear that you do not?

https://www.eia.gov/workingpapers/pdf/trr.pdf

[StarvingLion]

Adam, Shell is announcing more layoffs, Canada Post is going on strike by Friday...

More Jobless Consumers.

I think its very obvious that Shell is going BANKRUPT altogether.


Adam, its time to stop selling the Shale Hype and start seriously talking about PetroPhysics. The geologists are lost sheep living in a weird fantasy world of , "It always worked in the past" economics so they aren't of any help.

Shale Shysters want to rob us until we have nothing left. Either we go technical with actual physics and chemistry like the etp model demands or they will keep posting glorious happy charts of the future while crushing us with their massive losses.

[AdamB]

For all Starve's unfamiliar/unusual cognitive processing/sentence structure, he makes much more sense than you do with your endless dear-dear cutsy posts.

Really? Tell me Mr pstarr, have your ben franklins been refused by the corner store when you go there to purchase fuel? Because Mr Lion says they are worthless. I say that they are not. In a nice way! What is your experience with your ben franklins?

Adam, if you don't believe oil is consumed producing oil . . . than you are simply out of your mind. Does that mean you will leave here and get help?

Oil is consumed doing all SORTS of things, including running drilling rigs. Good thing we have so much of it that we are in a glut!!

[AdamB]

Adam, Shell is announcing more layoffs, Canada Post is going on strike by Friday...

More Jobless Consumers.

I think its very obvious that Shell is going BANKRUPT altogether.

Shell, and every other oil company laying off folks, does not go bankrupt just because it lays off folks. But it does teach newbies to the oil field that you better be ready for a wild ride when you create more supply than people demand!!

You know, all those people paying, every day, for like 90+ million barrels of liquids EVERY SINGLE DAY.

Pretty valuable stuff!

Adam, its time to stop selling the Shale Hype and start seriously talking about PetroPhysics.

Shale hype isn't what made the US the world's largest producer of natural gas, shale REALITY did that. And while my experience with seismic is limited, sure, we can discuss it. But if you have questions on that topic, they would be better directed at Mr Rockman and Mr Rockdoc. I have a feeling they have dealt with seismic far more than I.

The geologists are lost sheep living in a weird fantasy world of , "It always worked in the past" economics so they aren't of any help.

geologists aren't economists. they are geologists. So they most certainly are NOT the folks claiming the economics of the past continuing to work in the future. It is the economists doing that. Hopefully, and certainly in the case of the EIA, while being informed by geologists and engineers and technical people.

Which is why they didn't fall for peak oil previously, when others were saying a decade ago very similar things to what you are saying now.

Shale Shysters want to rob us until we have nothing left.

You have invested in shale wells have you? Or, in your other universe, did you invest in shale wells?

Either we go technical with actual physics and chemistry like the etp model demands or they will keep posting glorious happy charts of the future while crushing us with their massive losses.

The ETP model demands nothing. Until the right cherry picked data arrived to fit a bad non-linear regression to, it can't even be considered designed on first order principles, as you mistaken imply. Sorry.