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Texas crude oil production reaches 3 million barrels/day

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Declining Production in Texas

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 02 Jul 2016, 14:45:14

BTW if you're also curious about NG production in Texas:

http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/oil-gas/rese ... ince-1935/

Despite the great "unconventional miracle" our NG also peaked in 1972 at 7.45 tcf per year. The closert we got recently was 6.25 tcf in 2013. It was all on the Marcellus Shale that brought about the national surge. Which now looks like it's time is ending....at least for the moment.
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Re: Declining Production in Texas

Unread postby PeakOiler » Sat 02 Jul 2016, 17:17:36

Thanks ROCKMAN.

Yes, I saw the TRC's website and also posted the link above, but TRC gives annual amounts, not monthly rates like the EIA gives in the reference in the OP. Plus, I thought I would update the chart every few months and not wait until the annual data are released. Nevertheless, here's a graph of the TRC data through 2015:

Image

I resized the image to 720 pixels wide. Hopefully that's not still too large for readers' browser windows.

I guess I can update this chart annually.
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Re: Declining Production in Texas

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 02 Jul 2016, 18:46:59

Yes, I saw the TRC's website and also posted the link above, but TRC gives annual amounts, not monthly rates like the EIA gives in the reference in the OP.


TRC also reports average monthly production up until 2015 and then they report the monthly production to current date elsewhere, just have to dig around a bit.

What is worth looking at is the rig count versus monthly production. I think that tells the story when you realize the vast majority of the increase from 2009 onwards was unconventional which requires continuous drilling and lots of rigs in order to increase production (this isn't the case with older conventional production).
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Re: Declining Production in Texas

Unread postby Zarquon » Sat 02 Jul 2016, 23:44:58

Hasn't the rig count become a bit unreliable as an indicator, with all the multi-pad drilling going on?
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Re: Declining Production in Texas

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 03 Jul 2016, 02:17:06

PO - Well done! Charts always give a better sense or the dynamic.

Z - I'm missing you point. Whether 1 well is drilled from a pad or 5 wells each well is counted as a seperate rig. IOW if 5 wells are drilled from one pad over a 6 month period each day during that time will post one rig drilling. Just the same as if the rig was moved to 5 different locations. The rig count actually means the rig is under contract whether it's drilling, completing, rigghing up or moving to a location.
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Re: Declining Production in Texas

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 03 Jul 2016, 02:44:31

Doc - I think some folks can get a sense of your point by looking at well count vs production on the link:

In 2015 it took 194,000 wells in Texas to produce 1 billion bbls.
In 1978 it took only 166,000 wells to produce the same amount.
And in the year (1952) Texas first reached 1 billion bbls it took only 136,000 wells.

IOW it took 42% more wells to produce 1 billion bbls in 2015 then it did 63 YEARS AGO. Which might be difficult to understand for those impressed with the initial high flow rates of the Texas unconventional wells. Unless they are also equally impressed with their very high decline rates.

And that emphasizes Doc's point about the importance of a high rig count...which has now vanished.
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Re: Declining Production in Texas

Unread postby tita » Sun 03 Jul 2016, 03:36:13

ROCKMAN wrote:The rig count actually means the rig is under contract whether it's drilling, completing, rigghing up or moving to a location.


Just a technical question. Do they need a rig to frack DUC wells? As I understood, companies delayed this operation until a better price. The recent activity in rig count could well be explained by completion, but not necessarily new drillings.
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Re: Declining Production in Texas

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 03 Jul 2016, 09:20:25

Just a technical question. Do they need a rig to frack DUC wells? As I understood, companies delayed this operation until a better price. The recent activity in rig count could well be explained by completion, but not necessarily new drillings.


most rig counts separate drilling rigs from completion rigs. Sometimes companies will use the drilling rig to complete an unconventional well but economics dictates that it is usually better to drill a bunch of horizontals and move the rig off site and then return with a completion rig to complete the drilled wells all at once. By doing so you only mobilize the fracking trucks etc once rather than several times which is one of the main cost management tools available.

The frack log which you mention is sitting around 500,000 boepd capacity if it were all to be brought on stream. The problem, however is that a large part of that frack log is held by companies who are basically on the ropes. Even if prices rise they will not have the money to revisit these wells for sometime and the banks will almost surely not go on wild lending sprees again. I suspect if prices strengthen further there will be a lot of consolidation that has to go on in the industry prior to increased activity.
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Re: Declining Production in Texas

Unread postby radon1 » Mon 04 Jul 2016, 13:56:23

Lol

http://www.rystadenergy.com/NewsEvents/ ... udi-arabia

UNITED STATES NOW HOLDS MORE OIL RESERVES THAN SAUDI ARABIA

July 04, 2016

By Per Magnus Nysveen, Head of Analysis, Rystad Energy

A new independent estimate of world oil reserves has been released by Rystad Energy, showing that the US now holds more recoverable oil reserves than both Saudi Arabia and Russia. For US, more than 50% of remaining oil reserves is unconventional shale oil. Texas alone holds more than 60 billion barrels of shale oil according to this new data.

The new reserves data from Rystad Energy also distinguishes between reserves in existing fields, in new projects and potential reserves in recent discoveries and even in yet undiscovered fields. An established standard approach for estimating reserves is applied to all fields in all countries, so reserves can be compared apple to apple across the world, both for OPEC and non-OPEC countries. Other public sources of global oil reserves, like the BP Statistical Review, are based on official reporting from national authorities, reporting reserves based on a diverse and opaque set of standards.

Some OPEC countries like Venezuela report official reserves apparently including yet undiscovered oil, while others like China and Brazil officially report conservative estimates and only for existing fields.

Rystad Energy now estimates total global oil reserves at 2092 billion barrels, or 70 times the current production rate of about 30 billion barrels of crude oil per year. For comparison, cumulatively produced oil up to 2015 amounts to 1300 billion barrels. Unconventional oil recovery accounts for 30% of the global recoverable oil reserves while offshore accounts for 33% of the total. The seven major oil companies hold less than 10% of the total. This data confirms that there is a relatively limited amount of recoverable oil left on the planet. With the global car-park possibly doubling from 1 billion to 2 billion cars over the next 30 years, it becomes very clear that oil alone cannot satisfy the growing need for individual transport.
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Re: Declining Production in Texas

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 04 Jul 2016, 14:09:08

radon1 wrote:Lol

http://www.rystadenergy.com/NewsEvents/ ... udi-arabia

UNITED STATES NOW HOLDS MORE OIL RESERVES THAN SAUDI ARABIA

July 04, 2016

By Per Magnus Nysveen, Head of Analysis, Rystad Energy


Talk to Per Magnus sometime, he is quite well informed and knows his stuff, not an opinion easily laughed off. Use their database and GUI for any length of time, while lacking a bit in the technical data when compared to the old PetroConsultants information, it is quite substantial.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Declining Production in Texas

Unread postby radon1 » Mon 04 Jul 2016, 14:11:45

AdamB wrote:Talk to Per Magnus sometime, he is quite well informed and knows his stuff, not an opinion easily laughed off.


Had no intention to ridicule him. Just interesting news, got excited.
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Re: Declining Production in Texas

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 04 Jul 2016, 16:00:10

radon1 wrote:
AdamB wrote:Talk to Per Magnus sometime, he is quite well informed and knows his stuff, not an opinion easily laughed off.


Had no intention to ridicule him. Just interesting news, got excited.



So the LOL was just raging happiness at experts chiming in and letting everyone know that lack of crude oil is hardly today's problem?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Declining Production in Texas

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 04 Jul 2016, 16:55:59

radon1 wrote:
AdamB wrote:Talk to Per Magnus sometime, he is quite well informed and knows his stuff, not an opinion easily laughed off.


Had no intention to ridicule him. Just interesting news, got excited.

Not really radon1, those reserve numbers are meaningless without further ramification. Are those so-called reserves measured by a reputable geologic organization? Have those so-called reserves been defined at p5 or P95? A crucial distinction, as any reserve measure is a function of availability, crude oil price, and geography. If the so-called reserves are not really producable in a given economy then those so-called reserves are merely resources.

I suspect that what Per Magnus calls reserves are really resources already identified by USGS. No big deal. Just more peak-oil denial
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Re: Declining Production in Texas

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 04 Jul 2016, 18:26:17

pstarr wrote:I suspect that what Per Magnus calls reserves are really resources already identified by USGS. No big deal. Just more peak-oil denial


Quantifying reserves, and the resource to reserve tranformation rate, isn't peak oil denial. It is the work peak oilers should be doing, but apparently can't be bothered with.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Declining Production in Texas

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 04 Jul 2016, 19:30:47

AdamB wrote:
pstarr wrote:I suspect that what Per Magnus calls reserves are really resources already identified by USGS. No big deal. Just more peak-oil denial


Quantifying reserves, and the resource to reserve tranformation rate, isn't peak oil denial. It is the work peak oilers should be doing, but apparently can't be bothered with.

You are a peak-oiler AdamB (you apparently spend all of your time here), so why not improve on USGS and Per Magnus (whoever that fool may be?) and give us some better hard reserve numbers? Is oil abiotic? Does oil ever run out? Or is it possible your constant gabbing and verbal wind-generation actually does generate oil reserves? You know? From the CO2
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Re: Declining Production in Texas

Unread postby StarvingLion » Mon 04 Jul 2016, 19:45:07

AdamB wrote:
pstarr wrote:I suspect that what Per Magnus calls reserves are really resources already identified by USGS. No big deal. Just more peak-oil denial


Quantifying reserves, and the resource to reserve tranformation rate, isn't peak oil denial. It is the work peak oilers should be doing, but apparently can't be bothered with.


Just more utter complete desperation to get the Shale Oil Ponzi going again. All that LNG shit is bankrupt and that pseudo Per Magnus should have said:

United States has no usable oil for development whatsover

The real oil and gas is all here, Russia has been annexed. Britain has abandoned the US Titanic Shale to have any hope of getting any oil and gas [it won't get any]. Neither will Australia.

http://www.the-american-interest.com/20 ... f-rosneft/

The major stockholders of Rosneft are the state-owned Rosneftegaz, which holds 69.5 percent of the shares, and BP, which holds 19.75 percent.

The chairman of the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) Wang Yilin responded in a subsequent interview that his firm is interested in increasing its share in the Russian oil giant Rosneft. But there’s a catch: the Chinese will invest only if they get the right to participate in Rosneft’s management—of course “in full accordance with the stake bought,” Wang added.
CNPC already has a share of Rosneft, although its exact size remains undisclosed.

In May of 2014, the Russian firm Gazprom became the first when it signed an agreement with the above-mentioned CNPC for the construction of the Power of Siberia pipeline to China. At the time, Gazprom proudly announced it would receive $400 billion for gas deliveries to China over the next 30 years. By August of 2015, however, it was becoming clear that the Chinese had bargained well. The contract did not fix the gas price, but rather tied it to market rates

A year ago, a Chinese company received a 49-year lease on 285,000 acres of agricultural lands in the Zabaikalye Region. And in April of this year, China announced it had agreed with Russia to move several of its factories to Russia’s Far East. Analysts in Russia are beginning to worry that the Chinese are taking advantage of them as their economy declines,
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Re: Declining Production in Texas

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 04 Jul 2016, 20:27:38

pstarr wrote:You are a peak-oiler AdamB (you apparently spend all of your time here), so why not improve on USGS and Per Magnus (whoever that fool may be?) and give us some better hard reserve numbers?


What an interesting idea. I wonder where I would even begin...... :mrgreen:

pstarr wrote: Is oil abiotic?


I haven't seen sufficient evidence to convince me that this true, no.

pstarr wrote: Does oil ever run out?


Sure. Once you burn it, it like...disappears!!

pstarr wrote:Or is it possible your constant gabbing and verbal wind-generation actually does generate oil reserves? You know? From the CO2


I haven't seen anyone make a viable economic case for turning CO2 into oil. Seems to be missing the valuable H component to create the required chemical composition.
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Re: Declining Production in Texas

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 04 Jul 2016, 20:31:27

StarvingLion wrote:
AdamB wrote:
pstarr wrote:I suspect that what Per Magnus calls reserves are really resources already identified by USGS. No big deal. Just more peak-oil denial


Quantifying reserves, and the resource to reserve tranformation rate, isn't peak oil denial. It is the work peak oilers should be doing, but apparently can't be bothered with.


Just more utter complete desperation to get the Shale Oil Ponzi going again.


It is still going. It slowed down, it did not stop.

More current events, less rhetorical make believe!

StarvingLion wrote:
All that LNG shit is bankrupt and that pseudo Per Magnus should have said:

United States has no usable oil for development whatsover



I'll take his more than expert opinion on the topic over the average internet denizen, if you don't mind. Particularly one who doesn't seem to understand that I can still take that Ben Franklin down to the corner store and, you know, BUT stuff with it.

Not worthless yet!!

What is the fascination with the Chinese and Russians? I thought they had invisibly collapsed along with everyone else!!
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Declining Production in Texas

Unread postby StarvingLion » Mon 04 Jul 2016, 22:53:45

Texas is so broke it cannot even afford a single coal plant any longer. It builds thousands of totally USELESS wind mills.

https://www.wind-watch.org/news/2016/06 ... udumalpet/

"In August 2014, power generation there almost came to a complete stall because of the rains. On some of the worst days, only 2 MW was generated from 5,300 windmills, each of which needs about half an acre of land, with the complete wind farm occupying more than 2,650 acres previously used for agriculture."

5300 WINDMILLS CANNOT EVEN REPLACE 1 COAL PLANT

Broke Texas is replacing oil with this "green" crap. How come if they have 60 billion barrels of oil? ENRON ....hahaha.
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Re: Declining Production in Texas

Unread postby StarvingLion » Mon 04 Jul 2016, 23:19:07

Adam, Japan is so BANKRUPT it now has to outsource its ENTIRE ECONOMY to Bangladesh which is much cheaper than China. How come if it has all that Gas Hydrates off its shore? Texas is doing the same thing with Mexico. NO ECONOMY ADAM....NONE...According to americandream(er), 100's of millions of new jobless consumers will become successful traders and buy oil stuff? How Adam? EVERYONE IS TAKING ROBOTICS AND AI TO SHITCAN EVERY WORKER ON EARTH. ITS TOTALLY COLLAPSING INTO CHAOS AND MURDER....

THE PRICE OF OIL MUST GO TO $5 IN ORDER FOR THE CONSUMER TO AFFORD IT

http://the-japan-news.com/news/article/0003056043

Economic relations between Bangladesh, whose capital Dhaka was the site of a recent terrorist attack, and Japan have been rapidly deepening. An increasing number of Japanese companies choose the country rather than China as a production base due to its low labor costs.

The country’s population is about 160 million and wage levels of plant workers are said to be about one-fourth of those in China.
Last edited by StarvingLion on Mon 04 Jul 2016, 23:35:41, edited 2 times in total.
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