Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Texas crude oil production reaches 3 million barrels/day

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

What's happening to Texas Production?

Unread postby bigmama » Sat 12 Dec 2015, 11:46:33

Here is a little Texas only snap shot. Peak of Texas production was in Mar 15. This was the highest monthly production since 1993 and maybe/probably the highest ever. Most interesting was the -8.9% in September and that Texas has lost 600,000bbls/day from the peak and Texas is only 2-3 months away from taking 1M bbls/per day out of production from the global total. So makes you wonder how much NA or the USA has lost since the peak. My guess is over a 1M bbls/day has been removed from USA production already.

............................% Chg........bbl/day
Dec-14 90,341,511
Jan-15 87,007,367.....-3.69%.......2,900,245.57
Feb-15 80,291,710.....-7.72%.......2,676,390.33
Mar-15 91,043,345.....+13.39.......3,034,778.17
Apr-15 85,973,234.....-5.57% .......2,865,774.47
May-15 85,749,600......-0.26% ......2,858,320.00
Jun-15 81,372,930......-5.10%.......2,712,431.00
Jul-15 82,351,260......+1.20%.......2,745,042.00
Aug-15 79,346,604......-3.65%......2,644,886.80
Sep-15 72,849,838......-8.19%......2,428,327.93
bigmama
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 4
Joined: Sat 12 Dec 2015, 11:27:00

Re: What's happening to Texas Production?

Unread postby Ron Patterson » Sun 13 Dec 2015, 08:40:09

Bigmama, those Texas numbers are only preliminary numbers. Texas oil and gas production data are always late so the near months are always way, way lower than the actual numbers will eventually be. If you look at those numbers six months from now they will not resemble the numbers you quote.

Texas production may be falling but not nearly the rate you assume from those numbers.
Ron Patterson
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 69
Joined: Thu 17 May 2012, 11:55:46

Re: What's happening to Texas Production?

Unread postby Pops » Sun 13 Dec 2015, 08:59:16

Look at Ron's site, PeakOilBarrel.com for some good graphics on how the numbers are revised over time.
If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen we must live through all time or die by suicide.
-- Abraham Lincoln
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 17642
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 03:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

Re: What's happening to Texas Production?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 13 Dec 2015, 10:43:52

Ron - You may well be correct. But what is the source of Bigmama's numbers (as well as yours)? Some time ago the TRC recognized the lag correction they had to make for the state's official numbers. From the TRRC:

"Preliminary Crude Oil & Gas Well Gas Monthly Production Total - Significant changes to the preliminary production figures will occur in decreasing amounts for approximately six to eight months due to the filing of corrected and late reports by industry. Commission staff anticipates that the production totals following that period are substantially complete, although continued minor changes occur thereafter."

But the TRC recognized a correction vector to take into account this lag:

"TRRC PRODUCTION STATISTICS AND ALLOWABLES FOR JANUARY 2015: AUSTIN –– The Railroad Commission of Texas (Commission) reports that in the last 12 months, total Texas reported production was 870 million barrels of oil and 8.0 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. The Railroad Commission of Texas’ estimated final production for October 2014 is 80,591,275 barrels of crude oil and 526,837,629 Mcf of gas well gas. The Commission derives final production numbers by multiplying the preliminary October 2014 production totals of 68,675,991 barrels of crude oil and 458,438,591 Mcf of gas well gas by a production adjustment factor of 1.1735 for crude oil and 1.1492 for gas well gas.

The above from: http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/all-news/122314b

So do some of the oil production stats for oil represent the 1.1735 upward adjustment?
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11013
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: What's happening to Texas Production?

Unread postby Ron Patterson » Sun 13 Dec 2015, 11:03:09

Rockman, that's all very well but Bigmama's post did not mention any correction. Her numbers were not corrected and bear little resemblance to what the final numbers will look like. That's what I was pointing out. That's ALL I was pointing out.

Her numbers, which is also the TRRC numbers, indicate that Texas oil production is in free fall. And we both know that is just not the case.

Yes, I know the TRRC gives a fudge factor for the final month. But I have found that this fudge factor most often misses the actual number, which is actually only known months later, by a country mile.
Ron Patterson
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 69
Joined: Thu 17 May 2012, 11:55:46

Re: What's happening to Texas Production?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 13 Dec 2015, 11:23:53

Ron - That was my point: are her numbers and yours the raw TRRC numbers, the TRRC corrected estimates or some others? Have you come up with a better correction factor then the TRRC? Difficult to debate any of the numbers if we don't know the source. But based upon the TRRC report numbers that are 8+ months older won't be subject to much future revision. Thus numbers for March 2015 or earlier should be rather accurate.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11013
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: What's happening to Texas Production?

Unread postby Ron Patterson » Sun 13 Dec 2015, 11:40:14

Yes, I know my numbers are raw numbers and I very clearly point that out in every post on Texas production. I also point out that if this month's (final month) raw numbers are below last month's (final month) raw numbers were then that generally indicates that there was a decline that month... and vise versa if the numbers were higher. Of course that has not always proved to be the case. But in a few cases, like January 2015, it did prove to be true.
Ron Patterson
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 69
Joined: Thu 17 May 2012, 11:55:46

Re: What's happening to Texas Production?

Unread postby bigmama » Sun 13 Dec 2015, 15:48:34

Interesting. The #'s came from RRC site, where I load my production #s every month. As an operator, you have 60 days to get production information into the RRC site. After 60 days, you begin to receive lease severance emails/certified mail that you will have your lease severed. So I really doubt the numbers change at all over time, but I could be wrong as I do not look at Texas on this large of a scale historically.

Should see October's #s in the next few weeks.

On a side note, if Texas is down 600,000bbls already and the USA might be down 1M bbls already, the EIA #s are only showing a 400,000 drop for the USA; Iran's new production(when it comes) doesn't even fill this gap.
bigmama
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 4
Joined: Sat 12 Dec 2015, 11:27:00

Re: What's happening to Texas Production?

Unread postby Pops » Sun 13 Dec 2015, 15:58:29

Here is a chart from Ron's site, which I think illustrtes the reporting
http://peakoilbarrel.com/texas-rrc-2/#more-10165

Image


Notice as the months go by (different colored lines are different reporting months) the estimate increases and in fact seems to keep increasing for years until it finally aligns with the EIA estimate.

Not that the EIA estimate is never revised.
If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen we must live through all time or die by suicide.
-- Abraham Lincoln
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 17642
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 03:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

Re: What's happening to Texas Production?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 13 Dec 2015, 17:16:16

Whatever the final correct figure is it looks to be a downward trend. My question would be is some of the drop off due to producers that aren't financially forced to pump all out leaving oil in the ground waiting for the price to go back up? Pundits here have often said that won't happen but this drop seems a lot faster then what you would expect from a declining rig count etc.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 8859
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: What's happening to Texas Production?

Unread postby Pops » Sun 13 Dec 2015, 17:31:31

Lots of fracking in TX.
Lots of little strippers may be losing money their little owners can not afford so are being shut in. I mentioned that somewhere.
Just guessing.
If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen we must live through all time or die by suicide.
-- Abraham Lincoln
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 17642
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 03:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

Re: What's happening to Texas Production?

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 13 Dec 2015, 17:35:52

Pops wrote:Just guessing.

Same here.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 8859
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: What's happening to Texas Production?

Unread postby Synapsid » Sun 13 Dec 2015, 18:00:33

vtsnowedin, pops,

No need to guess, just ask shallow sand.
Synapsid
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 780
Joined: Tue 06 Aug 2013, 20:21:50

Re: What's happening to Texas Production?

Unread postby bigmama » Sun 13 Dec 2015, 19:26:10

Strippers, yeah they are hurting but there are several examples of mid-size guys that are in the process of blowing up.

Here is a Real Example: Not sure how you pay back the $275M when your revenues have decreased by 83% while your production has declined 63% and is declining because(I am guessing) your credit lines have been reduced/cancelled. If your $275M loan was at 5%, your monthly payment would be $1,145,833. There would be nothing left over for operations or certainly new projects.


"EnCap and Riverstone have invested at least $275 million in Venado, according to a press release last year." http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... on-in-sale


date..mnthly prod....monthly rev based on WTI price that month
Dec-13 23,030
Jan-14 40,387
Feb-14 33,177
Mar-14 33,260
Apr-14 56,568
May-14 61,155
Jun-14 59,828
Jul-14 85,631
Aug-14 97,814
Sep-14 84,502
Oct-14 96,788 $6,194,432.00
Nov-14 84,423
Dec-14 72,767
Jan-15 60,102
Feb-15 48,429
Mar-15 54,949
Apr-15 52,646
May-15 49,196
Jun-15 45,840
Jul-15 44,102
Aug-15 41,275
Sep-15 35,391 $1,047,573.60
bigmama
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 4
Joined: Sat 12 Dec 2015, 11:27:00

Re: What's happening to Texas Production?

Unread postby Revi » Sun 13 Dec 2015, 22:07:18

According to Ron Patterson. Eagle Ford is down quite a bit already. It looks like the boom has gone bust already.
http://peakoilbarrel.com/eia-says-shale-continues-to-decline/#more-10504
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
User avatar
Revi
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6873
Joined: Mon 25 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: Maine

Re: What's happening to Texas Production?

Unread postby PeakOiler » Mon 14 Dec 2015, 09:18:25

Pops wrote:...Not that the EIA estimate is never revised.


Indeed. I recently downloaded the xls file from the EIA for Texas production and updated my spreadsheet and the numbers I had were quite different from the older download. The revised numbers went back years!
I always save the older EIA Excel downloads.

Perhaps it's time to start the thread titled "Declining Production in Texas".
There’s a strange irony related to this subject [oil and gas extraction] that the better you do the job at exploiting this oil and gas, the sooner it is gone.

--Colin Campbell
User avatar
PeakOiler
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3664
Joined: Thu 18 Nov 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Central Texas

Re: What's happening to Texas Production?

Unread postby GoghGoner » Mon 14 Dec 2015, 09:30:36

Revi wrote:According to Ron Patterson. Eagle Ford is down quite a bit already. It looks like the boom has gone bust already.
http://peakoilbarrel.com/eia-says-shale-continues-to-decline/#more-10504


Eagle Ford has gone bust but the Permian has seen an increase this year. Rig counts are still dropping in Permian. Overall, Texas has been resilient this year.
GoghGoner
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1729
Joined: Thu 10 Apr 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Stilłwater subdivision

Re: What's happening to Texas Production?

Unread postby Pops » Mon 14 Dec 2015, 09:34:52

Another factor is offshore. I'm thinking those projects don't turn around on a dime. This from the IEA OMR says GOM is keeping production up, at least was in august...

In contrast, offshore production posted sharper than expected gains. According to EIA data, Gulf of Mexico production rose by more than 60 kb/d in August to 1.65 mb/d, its highest level since February 2010. With year-on-year gains of 210 kb/d, the US Gulf of Mexico took over as the largest contributor to US supply growth in August.

Image


Eagle Ford...
Image
If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen we must live through all time or die by suicide.
-- Abraham Lincoln
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 17642
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 03:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

Re: What's happening to Texas Production?

Unread postby Subjectivist » Mon 14 Dec 2015, 10:21:20

Pops wrote:Another factor is offshore. I'm thinking those projects don't turn around on a dime. This from the IEA OMR says GOM is keeping production up, at least was in august...

In contrast, offshore production posted sharper than expected gains. According to EIA data, Gulf of Mexico production rose by more than 60 kb/d in August to 1.65 mb/d, its highest level since February 2010. With year-on-year gains of 210 kb/d, the US Gulf of Mexico took over as the largest contributor to US supply growth in August.

Image

Pops, can you use your graphic design skills to redraw that image with Eagle Ford as the top layer? I really dislike this graph style because it makes separating individual trends from the average much harder if the biggest change is not in the uppermost data set, like you did with Fracking as part of world supply.

Eagle Ford...
Image
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
User avatar
Subjectivist
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 4288
Joined: Sat 28 Aug 2010, 06:38:26
Location: Northwest Ohio

Re: What's happening to Texas Production?

Unread postby Pops » Mon 14 Dec 2015, 11:15:43

Look at the drilling productivity report Sub. It has charts specifically for these regions.
Here is the pdf... https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/pdf/dpr-full.pdf

It must be in html somewhere, I just don't know where
If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen we must live through all time or die by suicide.
-- Abraham Lincoln
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 17642
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 03:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

PreviousNext

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 21 guests