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Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

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Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 19 Nov 2017, 11:28:55


Tesla Inc.’s unveiling on Thursday of a new electric truck showed Elon Musk can match Steve Jobs’s ability to wow the tech crowd with a glimpse of the future. If he can equal the manufacturing prowess of Apple Inc.’s current Chief Executive Officer Tim Cook, he might just clobber the oil industry too. That’s a big if, given Tesla’s current inability to meet manufacturing targets on the mass-market Model 3 electric car. But if the company really can deliver a battery-powered big rig with a 500-mile range and lower lifetime costs than diesel vehicles, then a big chunk of future oil demand growth is in peril. Road freight accounts for about a fifth of world oil consumption, mostly diesel, according to the annual World Energy Outlook published by the International Energy Agency this week. Trucks are responsible for about 60 percent of


Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 19 Nov 2017, 11:34:09

It's a city boys idea of a truck. It's a Poofy Truck, goes well with slim pants.
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby ralfy » Sun 19 Nov 2017, 20:36:05

I think most parts of the world still need diesel trucks (especially Asian utility vehicles) because income levels are much lower and infrastructure (both electric grid and road networks) underdeveloped.
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 20 Nov 2017, 11:19:22

pstarr wrote:Well[sic] never be seen on the road.


Why would we expect you to predict anything else?

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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 20 Nov 2017, 13:42:22

asg70 wrote:
pstarr wrote:Well[sic] never be seen on the road.


Why would we expect you to predict anything else?

He's been spreading endless FUD about range for months. Now that's been proven nonsense. So now he goes to banal generalities. Because, what is left.

Given that Walmart and JB Hunt already have orders in, the only real question is will we see them on the road in 2019, or will it be delayed to 2020 (in usual Tesla timing mode).

I think it would be more reasonable to expect the latter -- not that it matters much.
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby GASMON » Mon 20 Nov 2017, 13:51:18

It's not the truck or it's technology that bothers me.

It is the infrastructure (grid) and electricity generation needed to recharge it - rapidly.

You won't plug one of these into a street light for a couple of hours to recharge !!!!

And THAT makes it a non starter until the infrastructure is in place. Huge electrical demand that renewables could not cope with. New coal, nuclear ?????

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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Mon 20 Nov 2017, 14:01:07

"500 mile range" hauling what, where?
In another Tesla thread someone speculated it would have at least a "500 kwh battery". 1 kwh to haul a cemi 1 mile... Mmmm road better be flat as glass, ultra high pressure tyres, maglev bearings etc etc.

Test: send one over any section of the Rocky Mountains, with realistic commercial load. Bet: it won't make it.
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 20 Nov 2017, 14:03:06

GASMON wrote:It's not the truck or it's technology that bothers me.
It is the infrastructure (grid) and electricity generation needed to recharge it - rapidly.
You won't plug one of these into a street light for a couple of hours to recharge !!!!
And THAT makes it a non starter until the infrastructure is in place. Huge electrical demand that renewables could not cope with. New coal, nuclear ?????


Someone obviously didn't read the article.

Tesla promises to make a "megacharging" network and power it mostly from its own solar farms and on-site powerwall storage banks.

Tesla's trying to do the equivalent of Hirsch-Report level peak-oil mitigation on the backs of wall-street investment.

As far as going over grades, they say it can maintain full highway speeds going up hills, unlike existing semis that slow down and get in the way of other cars. How much range going up hills, I dunno, but at least on the way down it recovers some of it through regen.
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby GHung » Mon 20 Nov 2017, 14:21:05

SeaGypsy wrote:"500 mile range" hauling what, where?
In another Tesla thread someone speculated it would have at least a "500 kwh battery". 1 kwh to haul a cemi 1 mile... Mmmm road better be flat as glass, ultra high pressure tyres, maglev bearings etc etc.

Test: send one over any section of the Rocky Mountains, with realistic commercial load. Bet: it won't make it.


The initial intent is to use these for shorter-haul distribution (warehouse to stores) rather than long-haul over-the-road trips. Another option would be a relay system where one truck and driver pulls the trailer 400-500 miles (8 hour shift) and another fully-charged tractor/driver pulls it the next leg, Pony Express fashion. Many trucking companies already do this. I have an old buddy that makes the trip from Denver to Salt Lake, takes his sleep break, hitches up another trailer and returns to Denver, several times a week.
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby dirtyharry » Mon 20 Nov 2017, 14:31:59

As Tom Cruise (or was it Cuba Gooding jr) says in Jerry Macguire ^SHOW ME THE MONEY^
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Mon 20 Nov 2017, 16:18:01

GHung wrote:
SeaGypsy wrote:"500 mile range" hauling what, where?
In another Tesla thread someone speculated it would have at least a "500 kwh battery". 1 kwh to haul a cemi 1 mile... Mmmm road better be flat as glass, ultra high pressure tyres, maglev bearings etc etc.

Test: send one over any section of the Rocky Mountains, with realistic commercial load. Bet: it won't make it.


The initial intent is to use these for shorter-haul distribution (warehouse to stores) rather than long-haul over-the-road trips. Another option would be a relay system where one truck and driver pulls the trailer 400-500 miles (8 hour shift) and another fully-charged tractor/driver pulls it the next leg, Pony Express fashion. Many trucking companies already do this. I have an old buddy that makes the trip from Denver to Salt Lake, takes his sleep break, hitches up another trailer and returns to Denver, several times a week.


I drive trucks for a living, it's called 'changeover' where you either swap trucks altogether or swap trailers at a midway point or leg point for a particular haul. It's become more common practice as mega transport companies have been edging out small owner operators, the big companies have the fleets to do it & the drivers get the lifestyle improvement of earning OTR/ long haul/ interstate wages while being home every night.

Musk is a hell of a salesman, but he is as much subject to the laws of thermodynamics as the rest of us. A truck hauling 70,000+ kilos at highway speeds uphill is going to drink an incredible amount of energy, in any form. 2 MPG going uphill is not unusual for a diesel b-double cemi.
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby baha » Mon 20 Nov 2017, 17:14:09

Since I enjoy this stuff I worked some numbers...

.5 gallon of diesel fuel/mile = 20.35 kWhrs/mile. http://www.onlineconversion.com/energy.htm

A diesel truck is roughly 25% efficient. So you're only getting 5.09 kWhrs/mile to the wheels. I'm going to guess an electric truck with drive motors connected directly to the wheels is 90% efficient. Because I like them. If you don't like them, find a better number. So the electric truck will use 5.65 kWhrs/mile while going uphill. A 500 kWhr battery will do that for 88.5 miles. If the other side of that hill is also 88.5 miles down, you get at least 50% of that power back. (If the truck really is 90% efficient then the downhill return rate is 81%)

Yeah, I fudged some numbers...but you get the idea. :)

Elon said 500 miles, 80,000 pounds, at 65 mph. What is the burn and spew rate of a diesel truck under those conditions?

BTW - That would take four 91 kW motors, or 123 Hp each. To go uphill continuously...without downshifting :)
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby drwater » Mon 20 Nov 2017, 17:38:09

It will work great for urban short haul, where regeneration from stop-and-go makes a huge difference (I know - my hybrid gets fantastic mileage in stop-and-go, where our conventional car gets terrible mileage).

I can't see it making sense for long haul. The recharging electrical demand will be through the roof. Plus electricity is not cheap - last time I checked the numbers, diesel is actually cheaper in states with high electricity costs.
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby kublikhan » Mon 20 Nov 2017, 17:59:43

SeaGypsy wrote:"500 mile range" hauling what, where?
In another Tesla thread someone speculated it would have at least a "500 kwh battery". 1 kwh to haul a cemi 1 mile... Mmmm road better be flat as glass, ultra high pressure tyres, maglev bearings etc etc.

Test: send one over any section of the Rocky Mountains, with realistic commercial load. Bet: it won't make it.
The 500 mile range was at maximum weight(80,000 lbs/40 tons) at 60 mph. And don't forget about about regenerative braking. Of course it will suck up lots of energy going uphill. But you get some of it back on the downslope with regenerative braking.

"That is 500 miles at maximum weight, at highway speed, so you are doing 60 mph," Tesla CEO Elon Musk told a crowd in Los Angeles Thursday night. "That is the worst case scenario." Musk said the truck can beat a diesel truck in a straight line, up a 5 percent grade, and even without two of its four independent motors functioning. The truck can go from 0-60 in 5 seconds by itself, or in 20 seconds with an 80,000 pound load.
Tesla's new semi truck has a 500 mile range
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 20 Nov 2017, 18:10:37

SeaGypsy wrote:Musk is a hell of a salesman, but he is as much subject to the laws of thermodynamics as the rest of us. A truck hauling 70,000+ kilos at highway speeds uphill is going to drink an incredible amount of energy, in any form. 2 MPG going uphill is not unusual for a diesel b-double cemi.


Maybe that's why Musk started the Boring company. Why bother scaling mountains when you can drive right THROUGH them? It's kind of like the joke about how the US invented a pen that would work in zero-G and the Russians just used pencils (which is a bit of an urban legend, but the wisdom is sound). Point being that rather than trying to slap a bandaid on all of the inefficient ways we get things from place to place, maybe things should get from place to place via more efficient routes?
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby Cog » Mon 20 Nov 2017, 19:02:32

Maybe lets see a few thousand Model 3's first. Like he sort of promised by now.
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 20 Nov 2017, 19:09:32

asg70 wrote:
SeaGypsy wrote:Musk is a hell of a salesman, but he is as much subject to the laws of thermodynamics as the rest of us. A truck hauling 70,000+ kilos at highway speeds uphill is going to drink an incredible amount of energy, in any form. 2 MPG going uphill is not unusual for a diesel b-double cemi.


Maybe that's why Musk started the Boring company.

"To solve the problem of soul-destroying traffic, roads must go 3D, which means either flying cars or tunnels. Unlike flying cars, tunnels are weatherproof, out of sight and won't fall on your head. A large network of tunnels many levels deep"

That is anything but boring. It's hysterical
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby Cog » Mon 20 Nov 2017, 19:14:28

The hippie is right, this is hysterical.
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby GHung » Mon 20 Nov 2017, 19:15:30

asg70 wrote:
SeaGypsy wrote:Musk is a hell of a salesman, but he is as much subject to the laws of thermodynamics as the rest of us. A truck hauling 70,000+ kilos at highway speeds uphill is going to drink an incredible amount of energy, in any form. 2 MPG going uphill is not unusual for a diesel b-double cemi.


Maybe that's why Musk started the Boring company. Why bother scaling mountains when you can drive right THROUGH them? It's kind of like the joke about how the US invented a pen that would work in zero-G and the Russians just used pencils (which is a bit of an urban legend, but the wisdom is sound). Point being that rather than trying to slap a bandaid on all of the inefficient ways we get things from place to place, maybe things should get from place to place via more efficient routes?


A lot of people made their livings designing, manufacturing, and marketing those Space Pens. It's capitalism at its finest. Let the tax payers fund the R&D while the share-holders reap the rewards. Creates jobs, and when production costs go up, move the plant to Taiwan. What could be more American?
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Mon 20 Nov 2017, 19:19:37

I can see this being viable for local delivery where the battery range is sufficient for a days work and the vehicle is parked (and hence available for recharging) for a good portion of the day. For long haul trucking the recharge time is going to kill you. A truck only generates revenue when it is moving with a load. You could swap trucks to keep a load moving but that means a much larger capital investment in trucks would be required. Trucks are expected to have a very long working life so any form of fast charging that has the side effect of reducing battery life would be a no no.
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