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Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 15:39:00

GASMON wrote:And nobody's yet mentioned where / how all the needed electricity will be generated. I doubt solar would supply that load. How many square Km / miles of solar panels will be needed for 100% EV ?
Gas

Tony Seba thinks it will be mostly solar, due to economics. He has books and videos that get into some numbers. Massive amounts of solar consumer rooftops and backup batteries are at the core of Seba's thesis.

I think that the change will come more gradually than Seba, and green sources generally like solar, wind, wave, geothermal etc. can produce a tremendous amount in time -- given decades to build up. I also think the primary motivation for the green tech will be economic -- I'm just not counting on it happening overnight.

For one thing, the green charts about the cost of solar panels going to practically nothing ignore the costs of installation, which are certainly non-trivial.
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby baha » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 16:28:03

A general rule of thumb is 5 acres = 1 MW of PV output. A mega-charger will need to be at least 800 kW output. So 1.25 chargers per 5 acres of land.

So one square mile of PV panels will operate 160 Mega-chargers. No need for battery storage...The trucks are the storage. Who's going to miss one sq-mile along I-70 in the middle of Kansas? Or in the Outback :)

And I'm thinking a solar array on top of the trailer would easily power the AC and other accessories.
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.

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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 16:31:11

pstarr wrote:And we can't fix our pot holes or make safe water available to the children Flint Michigan.


Look, I get your schtick already. You're a doomer. But guess what? This ship's moving ahead with or without your blessing. We'll see how far it goes, but it's moving forward.

Oh, and BTW, pot holes and safe water is the government, not business. So apples and oranges.
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby GASMON » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 17:47:00

baha wrote:A general rule of thumb is 5 acres = 1 MW of PV output. A mega-charger will need to be at least 800 kW output. So 1.25 chargers per 5 acres of land.

So one square mile of PV panels will operate 160 Mega-chargers. No need for battery storage...The trucks are the storage. Who's going to miss one sq-mile along I-70 in the middle of Kansas? Or in the Outback :)

And I'm thinking a solar array on top of the trailer would easily power the AC and other accessories.


Interesting info - thanks for posting - puts it into perspective. Yes the USA mid west has lots of "spare land & sun".

Square mile(s) of PV's , feasable ? costly ? Any forseeable snags / problems (raw materials etc) ?
I don't know

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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby GHung » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 18:05:43

Thousands (millions?) of unused acres in medians and rights-of-way. Very little interference for electrical lines, etc.. Easy access for cleaning and maintenance.
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 18:40:49

asg70 wrote:
pstarr wrote:And we can't fix our pot holes or make safe water available to the children Flint Michigan.


Look, I get your schtick already.

I am having a discussion with the adults, thank you to not butt in.
baha wrote:A general rule of thumb is 5 acres = 1 MW of PV output. A mega-charger will need to be at least 800 kW output. So 1.25 chargers per 5 acres of land.

$10 - $12/sq. ft. (https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-cost- ... lar-panels)
44,000 sq. ft * 4 * $11= $193,600 per charger

7.5 million superchargers (see above) * $193,600=$1.45 trillion
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby GHung » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 19:03:24

pstarr wrote:
asg70 wrote:
pstarr wrote:And we can't fix our pot holes or make safe water available to the children Flint Michigan.


Look, I get your schtick already.

I am having a discussion with the adults, thank you to not butt in.
baha wrote:A general rule of thumb is 5 acres = 1 MW of PV output. A mega-charger will need to be at least 800 kW output. So 1.25 chargers per 5 acres of land.

$10 - $12/sq. ft. (https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-cost- ... lar-panels)
44,000 sq. ft * 4 * $11= $193,600 per charger
7.5 million superchargers (see above) * $193,600=$1.45 trillion


That should be recovered pretty quickly if a reasonable fee is charged.
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 19:16:10

GHung wrote:
pstarr wrote:
asg70 wrote:
pstarr wrote:And we can't fix our pot holes or make safe water available to the children Flint Michigan.


Look, I get your schtick already.

I am having a discussion with the adults, thank you to not butt in.
baha wrote:A general rule of thumb is 5 acres = 1 MW of PV output. A mega-charger will need to be at least 800 kW output. So 1.25 chargers per 5 acres of land.

$10 - $12/sq. ft. (https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-cost- ... lar-panels)
44,000 sq. ft * 4 * $11= $193,600 per charger
7.5 million superchargers (see above) * $193,600=$1.45 trillion


That should be recovered pretty quickly if a reasonable fee is charged.

the national debt?
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 19:48:14

pstarr wrote:There are over 1 million gasoline/diesel pumps in the United States, each capable of refilling a gas tank in 10 minutes. In contrast a Tesla Supercharger takes 75 minutes. (for a car, not a truck)

7.5 million superchargers at $60,000 each == $450 billion for auto charging infrastructure. Extrapolate for 500kwh truck battery, would == $2.7 trillion for the equivalent capacity at all those same filling stations.

And we can't fix our pot holes or make safe water available to the children Flint Michigan.


You are assuming all existing gasoline/diesel pumps would need to be replaced with an equivalent number of supercharger outlets. At the present time, the only way to refuel an ICE vehicle is to go to a service station and use a gasoline/diesel pump. That's not the case with electric vehicles. It can be expected that most owners of personal electric vehicles will recharge them at home using a charger that is significantly less expensive (and admittedly slower) than a supercharger. Ditto for local delivery trucks where it can be expected that at least 12 hours would be available each day to recharge the vehicle. Perhaps employers will offer recharge facilities to their employees but once again there would be no need to provide a supercharger type facility as you would expect employees to be at work for 8 or more hours.
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 21:21:21

pstarr wrote:I am having a discussion with the adults


I'm getting tired of putting the pot calling the kettle black gifs here. Don't make me do it again.

pstarr wrote:7.5 million superchargers


OK. Here we go again. Oil -> Electricity -> Clean Electricity. See the transition? Keyword--transition. Every ICE car sold will remain gas/diesel for its entire operational life. An electric vehicle will get its power from whatever powers the grid. And guess what? That's going to mean a diverse set of inputs. Natural gas, coal, nukes, hydro, wind, and solar. After gas cars shift to EVs, then it simply becomes a matter of evolving the grid (which includes some degree of decentralized solar).

So in reference to the thread, yes, the Tesla Truck could threaten big chunk of oil demand. Does that mean every electron will come from non-fossil fuel sources? No. But since only isolated islands produce electricity from petroleum, it cuts oil demand.

As far as the profitability of Tesla goes, and the LONG game, you can now see how them being equivalent to a utility offers them vertical integration. We have no idea what pricing it might attach to megacharger access, but I have to imagine they would find a way to recoup the overhead of building and powering them, just as they have started to add per-use charges for the supercharger network.

Of course, none of these explanations are enough to you because you are only thinking in absolute terms.

What is more useful is to think about how much oil displacement EVs are likely to achieve within the next, let's say, 10 years, that might offer a hedge against oil depletion? The answer is probably significant. And you know what will make it MORE significant? If the EV rollout begins and we fall off the production plateau. Expect EV demand to skyrocket and hence spur on aggressive scale out of manufacturing.

But no, the economy will crash, cue Mad Max, zombie hordes, the whole nine yards.

I mean, we can circle around and restate our vying predictions over and over again but until it happens that's all it is, one prediction vs. another prediction.
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby dissident » Thu 23 Nov 2017, 09:28:22

GASMON wrote:And nobody's yet mentioned where / how all the needed electricity will be generated. I doubt solar would supply that load. How many square Km / miles of solar panels will be needed for 100% EV ?

Gas


Perhaps its time to stop pandering to anti-nuclear hysterics and maniacs and start building up safe molten metal reactors. Wind and solar can do what they can.

Humans are really not smarter than yeast at the macro scale. So many killer birds could have been killed off with one stone (nuclear based electrification), but instead we have phobia and denier dementia ruling the day.
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby baha » Thu 23 Nov 2017, 09:43:03

Hi Diss, I agree but it's never good to put all your eggs in one basket. even if it is clean...
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.

https://monitoringpublic.solaredge.com/solaredge-web/p/kiosk?guid=19844186-d749-40d6-b848-191e899b37db
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby baha » Thu 23 Nov 2017, 09:55:03

Think about it...distributed power and food production, distributed people, and distributed trucks (and electric tractors). It could work...
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.

https://monitoringpublic.solaredge.com/solaredge-web/p/kiosk?guid=19844186-d749-40d6-b848-191e899b37db
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 23 Nov 2017, 11:07:19

baha wrote:Think about it...distributed power and food production, distributed people, and distributed trucks (and electric tractors). It could work...

That is the good dream, but it won't work. When it comes down to Revi's sustainable vision vs Super Sexy NEV's . . . this is America and Superduper wins out every time. But not in the end. :cry:
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 23 Nov 2017, 11:58:01

pstarr wrote:When it comes down to Revi's sustainable vision vs Super Sexy NEV's . . . this is America and Superduper wins out every time.


I agree that NEVs won't cut it. But 200+ mile reasonably priced EVs will, not initially, but when the price at the pump returns to $3.50 and above, they will take off.

Of course, you'll just keep digging your heels in and disagreeing, insisting that Americans will only abandon gas guzzlers under pain of death, but we just haven't been in a world where viable enough options exist, but we will within the next 5 years.
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby Cog » Thu 23 Nov 2017, 12:47:08

Whatever remaining oil/natural gas should be reserved for transportation modalities where it makes sense to use them. Heavy trucking, military, and construction. For personal transport, EV's will work fine for most of our needs. That will stretch out the time horizons for oil/gas for a very long time. How do we get there? I prefer letting price set that transition and not government intervention.
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 24 Nov 2017, 16:12:09

Cog wrote:Whatever remaining oil/natural gas should be reserved for transportation modalities where it makes sense to use them. Heavy trucking, military, and construction. For personal transport, EV's will work fine for most of our needs. That will stretch out the time horizons for oil/gas for a very long time. How do we get there? I prefer letting price set that transition and not government intervention.

In the US anyway, that seems to be mostly what's happening. The federal tax credits will expire in relatively short order once each company starts selling EV's in any volume. As prices come down, there's no need to sustain those.

And it's not like there are no credits or subsidies for FF's, they're just different.

Personally, I'd prefer to end ALL tax subsidies for pretty much everything and let market discovery and technology and innovation figure things out. That way tax rates could be lower, punishing people less for being highly productive.
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby jawagord » Sat 25 Nov 2017, 01:04:29

Seems this might just be a flashy dog and pony show by Elon to raise cash from gullible depositors and virtue signalling corporations?

http://business.financialpost.com/trans ... -batteries
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby baha » Sat 25 Nov 2017, 06:48:15

Cog wrote:I prefer letting price set that transition and not government intervention.


How do you make prices reflect intrinsic value or future damage. Sometimes when you set the price you're not sure of the future ramifications. And taking things to the dump keeps getting more expensive...

Forget CO2, just consider coal ash, the public in NC is now paying to clean up coal ash that was burned decades ago. Clearly Duke didn't charge enough for the power then. They siphoned off the value as profit and ignored future ramifications.

No one on the capitalistic green earth is playing the game fairly. Except me, and most people would think I'm losing :)
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.

https://monitoringpublic.solaredge.com/solaredge-web/p/kiosk?guid=19844186-d749-40d6-b848-191e899b37db
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby baha » Sat 25 Nov 2017, 08:25:38

OK, my numbers say Tesla will take a big hit at a price of $150k. I already calculated just the battery at $200k. But there are some things we should consider.

That is my price, his is better. I have no idea what he pays for batteries or what the trend is over time. He just opened the factory, it is cranking out batteries like clockwork, at this point in time the economics will be changing fast. When the solar powered factory pays for itself and is written off on taxes, the economics will improve.

Elon has a plan, he knows the trends and is working them. He is projecting prices 2-3 years out and probably more like 5. If it all falls together, it will work. If it all falls apart. Someone will start again with better economics. And they will be buying Tesla batteries :) or the factory...

I also think Tesla is selling the truck and keeping the battery. They already control my battery and effectively own it. If it dies they replace it. Vertical integration means they can also provide the power to charge it. Basically they own the energy and you own the truck. How's that for a new business model?

And the price I pay for batteries for my EVW keeps going down :)
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.

https://monitoringpublic.solaredge.com/solaredge-web/p/kiosk?guid=19844186-d749-40d6-b848-191e899b37db
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