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Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 20:15:06

Cog wrote:The problem Outcast, is that the energy contained within a fossil fuel battery(pound for pound), aka a diesel tank, will always be more than that contained within a electric battery. There is no way to avoid that situation.
But only about 15% of that energy in the tank ends up moving the wheels. An EV "tank" contains much less energy, but they are 5 times as efficient at getting that energy to the wheels.

Cog wrote:Try this Tesla truck when the weather is 0 Farenheit, with defrosters and heaters blasting so the driver doesn't freeze, going over the Rocky Mountains instead of onto a showroom floor, and tell me its going to work as advertised
ICE will always have a heating advantage over EVs. Because ICE engines waste so much of the energy in the fuel tank as heat, the heat is essentially free. Where as the energy for the heat must come from the battery in EVs. Although this effect can be mitigated somewhat if you use a heat pump like in the Nissan Leaf instead of electric resistance heating like in the Tesla S. But even the Leaf switches over to electric resistance heating at sub zero temperatures(heat pumps don't work so well in extreme cold).

As for hills/mountains, I'm not sure if you appreciate this is where EVs shine. Just as ICE has an advantage when it comes to heating, EVs have an advantage when it comes to hills. They are highly efficient on the upslope. And on the downslope they avoid wear and tear on the brakes/engine and recharge the batteries through regenerative braking. Infact I have long thought that because of this effect alone it might make sense to develop a hybrid truck that runs mainly on diesel but uses electric assist for acceleration and regenerative braking when you decelerate.

Electric assist could improve performance while reducing fuel consumption. Heavy trucks waste a lot of fuel climbing hills, braking down hills, and in stop and go traffic. Even large Diesel engines burn a lot of fuel pulling a load to build momentum from a dead stop, and current engine braking and air brakes waste vast amounts of energy during deceleration, especially down hills. In addition, driver cab power needs during down time, when the truck is stopped, unnecessarily burns fuel either by truck engine idling or by an auxiliary motor (Apu). From a dead stop at a traffic light, for instance, electric motor assistance could improve initial acceleration, and during a hill climb, stored battery charge could boost power.

Most if not all of the charge for this battery could come from what is now discarded heat on the brake shoes, so service life of drums and shoes would be extended while cab habitation is improved. A combination regenerative brake and electric motor could also reduce fuel consumption because the main diesel motor could be slightly smaller in HP, yet performance would be improved on hills and in heavy traffic.
Semi Truck Regenerative braking/Electric motor on transaxle could save a lot of fuel 24 hrs per day

We’re entering an era in which big commercial trucks and long-haul big rigs might be making more dramatic efficiency gains than passenger vehicles. Volvo highlights a 30 percent reduction in fuel consumption—and carbon-dioxide emissions—versus existing semis, due to a series of improvements that include the hybrid powertrain, working to reduce weight, rolling resistance, and aerodynamic drag.

The hybrid system combines an electric motor system and Volvo’s 12.8-liter six-cylinder diesel engine. A regenerative braking system recovers energy during braking or on any downhill slope steeper than 1 percent. With help from Volvo’s I-See GPS-based support technology, the hybrid system can anticipate upcoming terrain and road-speed changes and make energy-saving choices accordingly.

The Volvo project is one of many focused toward a rapidly evolving truck market—one that is much more efficiency conscious than a decade ago. That’s partly because of aggressive plans adopted last year to dramatically improve the fuel economy (and cut carbon-dioxide emissions) of big rigs between 2018 and 2027. This particular concept is the product of research between the Swedish Energy Agency and the U.S. Department of Energy. Volvo hasn’t released numbers pertaining to the truck’s fuel economy, its engine, or its battery pack; but equivalent projects from Peterbilt and Freightliner have boosted the fuel economy of loaded big rigs from as low as 6 mpg today to the 10-to-12-mpg range.

Meanwhile, some manufacturers—and potential manufacturers—are looking past internal combustion entirely. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has talked about producing semis (all-electric, of course) in the future. Daimler is working on an all-electric shorter-distance hauler. Another startup truckmaker, Nikola, aims to produce a semi that uses electric motors powered by a hydrogen fuel cell and a battery pack.

The more efficient trucks that will be produced under the new regulations are expected to recoup any additional upfront cost within two to four years, and they gathered strong support from truck makers and the trucking industry. In a world where the costs of a commercial truck are amortized over time and fuel costs are already the single greatest concern for companies and operators, leaner, smarter semis are a win-win.
Volvo’s New Concept Semi Truck Points to a Future of Hybrid Big Rigs
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby dissident » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 21:04:58

I wish Musk all the best. The transition process away from fossil fuels has to get started somewhere. Instead of fixating on the lack of ultra-long range in these trucks, the focus should be on replacing all IC engine vehicles to electric ones in cities and their 250 mile periphery. That would be a major step all by itself. Electrification of long range road hauling would be a stellar achievement.

Musk is facing a large "entry barrier" where everything has to be done from scratch at large expense with profits only arriving much later. The government should volunteer to subsidize this effort regardless of what purists want. Bitching at Musk for relying on "government handouts" is retarded since he is not engaged in run of the mill business. Whether it be private space rockets or electric trucks, all of this is new and "unproven". Being in the red for decades is normal (look into AMD).
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 22:30:12

kublikhan wrote:"But only about 15% of that energy in the tank ends up moving the wheels. An EV "tank" contains much less energy, but they are 5 times as efficient at getting that energy to the wheels."


Lithium-ion batteries energy density is 2.2 % of petroleum. Efficiency measure without context (compared to total energy contained) is a meaningless metric to the truck driver, and his employer.

Energy densities of common energy storage materials

Regardless of the TANK TO WHEEL EFFICIENCY superiority of the EV drive train, the Tesla EV semi will still have only 1/10 the maximum and critical driving range of a similar ICE vehicle.
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 23:03:25

pstarr wrote:Lithium-ion batteries energy density is 2.2 % of petroleum. Efficiency measure without context (compared to total energy contained) is a meaningless metric to the truck driver, and his employer.

Energy densities of common energy storage materials

Regardless of the TANK TO WHEEL EFFICIENCY superiority of the EV drive train, the Tesla EV semi will still have only 1/10 the maximum and critical driving range of a similar ICE vehicle.
Did you miss what I just posted? Here I'll post it again:

We’re entering an era in which big commercial trucks and long-haul big rigs might be making more dramatic efficiency gains than passenger vehicles. The Volvo project is one of many focused toward a rapidly evolving truck market—one that is much more efficiency conscious than a decade ago. That’s partly because of aggressive plans adopted last year to dramatically improve the fuel economy (and cut carbon-dioxide emissions) of big rigs between 2018 and 2027.

The more efficient trucks that will be produced under the new regulations are expected to recoup any additional upfront cost within two to four years, and they gathered strong support from truck makers and the trucking industry. In a world where the costs of a commercial truck are amortized over time and fuel costs are already the single greatest concern for companies and operators, leaner, smarter semis are a win-win.
Volvo’s New Concept Semi Truck Points to a Future of Hybrid Big Rigs

Trucking companies are indeed interested in efficiency. Saving money on fuel costs keeps more cash in their pockets.

The nation’s approximately 1.7 million semi trucks burn through more than 26 billion gallons of diesel fuel annually.

That number is becoming increasingly unacceptable to truck manufacturers, and not just because they’re concerned with the environmental impact of their vehicles. Improving fuel economy by an extra mile per gallon would have the same effect as removing 200,000 trucks from the road. Not only would this be enormously beneficial for the environment, but it would also save trucking companies billions of dollars in fuel costs. That’s why big truck makers like Navistar, Daimler, Volvo and more are all rethinking how to design tractor trailers for maximum efficiency.

One potential option is to ditch diesel engines altogether in favor of electric motors. The engine maker Cummins recently introduced the first fully electric big rig this summer, and Tesla plans to unveil a similar prototype in the fall. Still, it could be years before the industry is ready to adopt electric vehicles on a large scale. In the meantime, companies can improve their trucks’ fuel economy by updating exhaust systems or installing fully automatic transmissions. Vehicle design is an important factor as well. Adding “skirts” or “tails” around the base and backs of trucks can improve their aerodynamics, thus reducing the driver’s need to constantly lean on the gas pedal.
Big Rig Truck Companies Strive for Efficiency
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 01:55:02

kublikhan wrote:
pstarr wrote:Lithium-ion batteries energy density is 2.2 % of petroleum. Efficiency measure without context (compared to total energy contained) is a meaningless metric to the truck driver, and his employer.

Energy densities of common energy storage materials

Regardless of the TANK TO WHEEL EFFICIENCY superiority of the EV drive train, the Tesla EV semi will still have only 1/10 the maximum and critical driving range of a similar ICE vehicle.
Did you miss what I just posted?

No. I chose to respond to you contention that EV's are " 5 times as efficient at getting that energy to the wheels" Not the rest of the distraction.

The truck driver dumb enough to buy into the EV crazes, will finally care little for pointy-headed dweebyness and measures of "effectiveness" or "thermodynamic efficiency" when he is stuck in the wilds of Montana without a plug. The truck driver would only care (dream?) about reaching the next plug-type filling station (of which there are pitifully few in the country) before he freezes his little cowboys off somewhere on rt 90, next door in North Dakota. :P 8)
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 03:39:47

Anyone who reckons weight doesn't matter has no experience in transport, it is the number 2 consideration, second only to reliability. Efficiency is 3rd.
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby GHung » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 09:35:20

SeaGypsy wrote:Anyone who reckons weight doesn't matter has no experience in transport, it is the number 2 consideration, second only to reliability. Efficiency is 3rd.


I just want to point out that in the US we don't have the multi-trailer "trains" like you have in Australia, and considering some numbers you've posted, our standard weight limits are lower. Also, most truck loads here are not maximum weight. The trailers are full of bulky, but not heavy, loads. Overweight loads need special permits, and could continue to use diesels, as could heavier loads.

This thread seems to have fallen into the 'all-or-nothing' trap. As I posted far up this thread, these electric trucks are currently expected to service shorter-haul and distribution routes, which is a large chunk of trucking in the US, and where a lot of emissions are produced and fuel wasted in traffic.
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 10:46:57

pstarr wrote:No. I chose to respond to you contention that EV's are " 5 times as efficient at getting that energy to the wheels" Not the rest of the distraction.

The truck driver dumb enough to buy into the EV crazes, will finally care little for pointy-headed dweebyness and measures of "effectiveness" or "thermodynamic efficiency" when he is stuck in the wilds of Montana without a plug. The truck driver would only care (dream?) about reaching the next plug-type filling station (of which there are pitifully few in the country) before he freezes his little cowboys off somewhere on rt 90, next door in North Dakota.
Pstarr, I am not trying to sell a long haul EV truck here. My opinion is that EV trucks make more sense for short haul, if at all. Maybe a hybrid-diesel for long haul. Musk claims his truck has lower total ownership costs than a diesel. And has a million mile warranty to address reliability. These are important metrics. However Musk also has a track record of over promising and under delivering. And we are missing important pieces of the puzzle to judge the economics of the situation ourselves like price, battery life, etc. Will the price be too high to be economical? Will the harsher duty cycle of a truck push the batteries to die prematurely? We don't know. But several customers have already lined up to find out: Walmart, Meijer, J.B. Hunt Transport Services, etc:

Walmart told CNBC Friday that it has made orders for fifteen Semi trucks in the U.S, and Canada, with the hopes that it will help Walmart lower emissions and meet other sustainability goals. Meijer, a Michigan-based supermarket chain, told Bloomberg at Thursday's event that it had placed orders for four trucks. And J.B. Hunt Transport Services, a top logistics and trucking company, said Friday it had made a reservation to buy "multiple" Tesla Semis. "Reserving Tesla trucks marks an important step in our efforts to implement industry-changing technology," said J.B. Hunt CEO John Roberts in a statement. Roberts added that the use of these trucks will be most beneficial for local routes and that J.B. Hunt planned to first deploy the Tesla Semi on the West Coast. That makes sense, according to Jerry Hirsch, editor at Trucks.com. Hirsch thinks Tesla may only get a small number of orders for the Semi from companies mostly looking to use them for short hauls -- about 20 to 250 miles -- from ports on the California coast to distribution centers in the inland part of the state.

Still, the Semi is likely to make some waves in the industry. Hirsch said that the decision to have the driver sit in the center of the truck will improve the aerodynamics of the vehicle and that other truck manufacturers may follow suit. "Everybody in the trucking industry is going to look at this," Hirsch said. "This is going to spark a change among other manufacturers, radical changes that have been previously resisted."

But Hirsch is still not certain that the Semi will wind up being a huge generator of sales (or profits) anytime soon for Tesla. For one, it's unclear if Tesla will actually get the Semi rolling out by 2019 as promised. Musk is notorious for making overly lofty promises and missing deadlines. Tesla also has a lot on its plate right now with trying to deliver its new Model 3 to customers in a timely fashion.
Tesla's truck, not out until 2019, already has orders
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby efarmer » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 11:21:06

They take a fellers growling truck and make him hum on down the road.
Then you got to tell all the other guys down at Mom's Truck stop you
laid off the Cummins and are running one of them hum jobs now.
Maybe they can put spoked wheels on her so I can put clothes pins
and baseball cards on them and make a little noise...
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 11:44:33

Long-haul EV trucking has to be addressed nationally, by government mandate and decree. Like the Space Race or nuclear weapons program this take a big vision and a wealthy country. Musk is out of his league.

There are hundreds of miles of rural interstate between the East and West Coast that have essentially no electrical supply for the fleets of trucks that use these roads. 5 hour charge on a $60k (cost to filling station) Super Charger . . . compared to a 20 minute diesel fill up!
Unfortunately, stations themselves are just fraction of the total cost burden associated with installing a DCQC. A 2014 survey by the Rocky Mountain Institute placed the real price of each new quick charge station at $50,000 – $100,000. Labor, permitting and the installation of a 480-volt transformer ($10,000 – $25,000) accounted for roughly two thirds of the final cost. Using this math, it would require an investment of as much as $600 million just to cover the state of California with enough quick chargers to match Japan’s concentration— and that’s ignoring the added cost of providing for multiple standards at each station.

The cost to install a national smart grid over 20 years is $1 trillion.
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Coincidence of uncontrolled EV charging with peak demand at 50% EV penetration (Shakoor & Aunedi, 2011)

The chicken/egg problem is not limited to big trucks. Night-time charging by a fleet of regular passenger EV's would overwhelm the current stupid grid. It must be a government mandate and funded. The transition away from horse transport took decades. We do not have decades. Exponential human demand and urbanization has run out of time. The transition would be no place for entrepreneurship or the free market. But there is no way in hell the American public will ever support it.
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby GHung » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 12:08:33

.....this take a big vision and a wealthy country. Musk is out of his league.


We probably wouldn't be here discussing this without Musk's "big vision". Meanwhile, for better or worse, he and a few others are doing far more than your government is.
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 12:19:16

GHung wrote:
.....this take a big vision and a wealthy country. Musk is out of his league.


We probably wouldn't be here discussing this without Musk's "big vision". Meanwhile, for better or worse, he and a few others are doing far more than your government is.

Pitifully little.

you and I have been here for a long while. In that time a few thousand superchargers have been installed . . . compared to 1 million existing gas/diesel pumps. This is crap.And a joke and really is not the fault of Elon. I just love to pick on the snit lol
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby GHung » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 12:33:04

pstarr wrote:
GHung wrote:
.....this take a big vision and a wealthy country. Musk is out of his league.


We probably wouldn't be here discussing this without Musk's "big vision". Meanwhile, for better or worse, he and a few others are doing far more than your government is.

Pitifully little.

you and I have been here for a long while. In that time a few thousand superchargers have been installed . . . compared to 1 million existing gas/diesel pumps. This is crap.And a joke and really is not the fault of Elon. I just love to pick on the snit lol


Yeah, 20+ years ago there were pitifully few PV panels being installed, even as folks like me were being ridiculed for our off-grid solar dreams. Those early adopters can be damned pesky and persistent, eh? Must be some sort of confirmation bias.
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 12:38:05

Here in California (and out west in general) solar thermal/hot-water is more cost effective. Hardly ever talked about by the Solar FanBoy and FanGirl crowd.

I have had hot-water panels for 19 years. Nothing too technie. Just works.
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 12:39:15

efarmer wrote:They take a fellers growling truck and make him hum on down the road.
Then you got to tell all the other guys down at Mom's Truck stop you
laid off the Cummins and are running one of them hum jobs now.
Maybe they can put spoked wheels on her so I can put clothes pins
and baseball cards on them and make a little noise...

You know, you might be onto something there (re passenger cars as they become EV's). One thing I've really enjoyed in friend's powerful V6 cars, or watching Youtube videos of people driving nice V8 sporty cars, is the engine noise, especially as such a car accelerates through its gears.

I think that's something a LOT of folks are going to miss.

Someone smart should be able to come up with some kind of electronic gadget that offers various simulated engine noises that could be plugged into a USB or something (of course, EV's won't have transmissions, so there's that). If built well and reasonably priced, I think there might actually be a lot of money in that.

I know there are some cars out there that have piped in simulated engine noise like the $150K BMW I8 (which to me is HORRENDOUSLY overpriced for what it is, even worse than most BMW's).

Or maybe it's only me, but I think a lot of people would prefer the option of realistic engine sounds to wind, tire, and battery hum noise. And of course, you could turn the thing off.
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 13:23:32

pstarr wrote:freezes his little cowboys off


Jesus, one day you're painting portraits of autonomous Teslas mowing down armies of kids chasing balls across the street and now we have the image of cowboys freezing into blocks of ice. This is grade-A hyper-exaggerated FUD and nothing more.

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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 13:28:36

asg70 wrote:
pstarr wrote:freezes his little cowboys off


Jesus, one day you're painting portraits of autonomous Teslas mowing down armies of kids chasing balls across the street and now we have the image of cowboys freezing into blocks of ice. This is grade-A hyper-exaggerated FUD and nothing more.
stop the complaining and respond to the data. Your annoying and childish obsession with my posts is disturbing. It scares the other children :x
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 14:19:33

pstarr wrote:stop the complaining and respond to the data.


It's the nature of fearmongering that there's no way to disprove it because the future hasn't happened yet. So all we're left with is what is reasonable or not. Does it sound reasonable that we will have a tidal wave of children struck by autonomous cars? All those billions of dollars in R&D, safety regulations, all of that will fail? No, it's not reasonable. Statistics will probably show that there's a big net decrease in driving fatalities once automation starts to take hold because, let's face it, human drives are damn flawed as it is. It's just that we're used to it, so it's the devil we know. So there's that.

Now, is it also likely we are going to be digging out frozen truck drivers caught with dead batteries halfway up a mountain? All EVs, no matter how unsophisticated, give you a reasonable range estimate. Do you think a truck driver is going to be caught flat-footed like that? Come on. Your scenarios are ridiculous that nobody should take them seriously.

But you do it anyway because it's all about you trolling for attention and exercising your hatred over the prospect of BAU and the suburbs hanging on a little bit longer.

Oh, one more thing.... I'm supposed to be in your ignore filter, right? What happened there?
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 14:29:31

There are over 1 million gasoline/diesel pumps in the United States, each capable of refilling a gas tank in 10 minutes. In contrast a Tesla Supercharger takes 75 minutes. (for a car, not a truck)

7.5 million superchargers at $60,000 each == $450 billion for auto charging infrastructure. Extrapolate for 500kwh truck battery, would == $2.7 trillion for the equivalent capacity at all those same filling stations.

And we can't fix our pot holes or make safe water available to the children Flint Michigan.
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Re: Tesla Truck Could Threaten Big Chunk of Oil Demand

Unread postby GASMON » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 15:29:54

And nobody's yet mentioned where / how all the needed electricity will be generated. I doubt solar would supply that load. How many square Km / miles of solar panels will be needed for 100% EV ?

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