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Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 2016

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Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 2016

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 01 Jun 2011, 17:43:33

I'm so excited! :-D

LINK
Morgan Stanley On The Renaissance In American Oil Production
Sarah Rappaport | May 25, 2011, 10:35 AM |

According to Morgan Stanley, oil production in the US is about to increase exponentially, and in new ways that will stabilize the market.

Due to sticker shocker at rising crude oil prices, which have almost doubled in the past three years, companies have been more willing to invest in new technologies using shale that were previously thought of as too expensive.

They expect companies that use new drilling technologies to grow in the next few years, and for the market to stabilize from the benefits of shifting the focus of production from natural gas to oil.

Production of shale is about to increase exponentially:

Image

[...]
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 201

Unread postby Pops » Wed 01 Jun 2011, 18:07:59

If those come through as advertised - or in any amount really, it will be a nice chunk of change to keep at home, "yet to find" needs to be found somewhere.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 201

Unread postby vision-master » Wed 01 Jun 2011, 18:21:58

I'm so excited! to be living in the past. :lol:
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Re: Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 201

Unread postby peripato » Wed 01 Jun 2011, 21:22:41

Pops wrote:If those come through as advertised - or in any amount really, it will be a nice chunk of change to keep at home, "yet to find" needs to be found somewhere.

This forecast depends on the price of oil remaining very high for the foreseeable future which favours small and mid-cap developers in the Bakken and elsewhere. However, if we get another oil price shock, like we did back in 2008 and demand craters, then lower oil prices along the lines seen then will hamper production increases in these places.

Another thing to remember is that oil depletion is a wasting disease. In a continuing perfect world we may be able to mitigate this fact with new technologies and efficiency measures, but the disease cannot be cured as we continue to consume far more oil every year than we discover. At best these last rolls of the dice may soften the economic, social and political blow to our way of life, but it cannot prevent its decline.
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Re: Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 201

Unread postby TheDude » Fri 03 Jun 2011, 00:53:11

Cool, more for all those new Chinese motorists.

Exports of crude at Vancouver BC:

Image

The eventual tanker capacity through Vancouver will be more than 80 per cent what is proposed by Enbridge. The waters beneath the Second Narrows bridge in Vancouver's harbour, because of their relative shallowness and strong tidal currents, flowing through a narrow passage that includes the obstacle of the bridge, pose special navigational challenge according to safety experts.


The Tyee – Kinder Morgan's Grand Plan to Pipe Oil Sands Crude. Plan is to dredge the canal leading to terminals up to Suezmax capacity, leaving Kitimat and VLCC dockings for later. Meanwhile Alberta can dispense with fueling up the US and all of this shale oil steps in. Maybe. Until the TAPS goes offline, in which case KM TransMountain line pinch hits for Alaska. Or we import/pay more, and WA state already has highest gasoline prices in the country.
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Re: Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 201

Unread postby Pops » Fri 03 Jun 2011, 07:58:01

It really is a world market, US shale oil and the tar sands are landlocked right now but not for long.

I saw that US finished product exports are up too. Like I've said before, as far as exploiting abundant resources goes, capitalism is great, when it comes to conserving declining resources, not so much.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 201

Unread postby copious.abundance » Tue 05 Jul 2011, 16:27:53

America's Newfound Energy
Similar to what's happened with shale gas, shale oil output from areas like the Bakken formation stretching beneath North Dakota and Montana is rising quickly. Rystad expects U.S. oil production, which bottomed out at 5.4 million barrels per day in 2008, to reach 7.4 million barrels per day by the end of the decade.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 201

Unread postby Lore » Tue 05 Jul 2011, 16:43:43

OilFinder2 wrote:America's Newfound Energy
Similar to what's happened with shale gas, shale oil output from areas like the Bakken formation stretching beneath North Dakota and Montana is rising quickly. Rystad expects U.S. oil production, which bottomed out at 5.4 million barrels per day in 2008, to reach 7.4 million barrels per day by the end of the decade.


Will that be enough expensive oil to compensate for cheap dwindling output from old sources? Not likely! Let's not also forget that it takes oil to obtain oil.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
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Re: Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 201

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Thu 07 Jul 2011, 11:12:32

7.4 mbpd huh?

I guess we will see. I'd say thats mighty optimistic in light of what is happening to the global sovereign debt crisis, let alone what our own administration is doing to GOM production and Alaska. My bet is you only stem decline for a few years with the possibility of a very small scale uptick over what we do presently.

I will only believe it when I see it. The constant US centric view for oil production also makes me wonder why folks cannot see that oil is a GLOBAL commodity and unless GLOBAL production can avoid the plateau it makes little difference to what happens down the road.

Adding 2 mpd to our production in the US on the backs of a HUGE infrastructure, Rig, and Services ramp should tell you something. Refusing to understand those clues is why cornies ultimately will be proven wrong about their ridiculous optimism.
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Re: Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 201

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Thu 07 Jul 2011, 11:24:17

"Amazingly, Rystad Energy, a Norwegian consultancy that analyzes field data, foresees U.S. combined oil and gas output actually surpassing its prior 1972 peak in the early 2020s."


I'd say that just about destroys ANY credibility that these "analysts" had. I can see a dent being made in decline, but I'd really like to understand how they come to that conclusion. In light of the decline picture here in the US its a fantastic claim to make
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Re: Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 201

Unread postby KingM » Thu 07 Jul 2011, 11:42:07

AirlinePilot wrote:"Amazingly, Rystad Energy, a Norwegian consultancy that analyzes field data, foresees U.S. combined oil and gas output actually surpassing its prior 1972 peak in the early 2020s."


I'd say that just about destroys ANY credibility that these "analysts" had. I can see a dent being made in decline, but I'd really like to understand how they come to that conclusion. In light of the decline picture here in the US its a fantastic claim to make


Good point. The armchair, hunch-driven analysis on this web site is much more credible than anything that could be offered by so-called professional "analysts" and "experts."
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Re: Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 201

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Thu 07 Jul 2011, 20:27:39

KingM wrote:Good point. The armchair, hunch-driven analysis on this web site is much more credible than anything that could be offered by so-called professional "analysts" and "experts."


Thats a pretty ignorant and bold statement to make on a site like this. Granted there are plenty of "armchair" types here, but I can assure you I am not one. I have studied resource depletion, the oil and natural Gas industry, and the current state of affairs for most if not ALL the oil producing nations and companies. I have educated myself on the history, technology, and present state of global oil production. I read often and voluminously on the topic. I spend time at places like Rigzone, The Oil Drum, Chris Martenson.com, The Energy Bulletin, ASPO, etc. I also regularly read industry news and analysis and have been doing it for almost 8 years now. My oldest brother is a consultant inside the energy industry and currently is working on site prep and lease work in the Marcellus Shale. He also has several Petroleum Geologist friends whose brains I get to pick regularly and have had access to for many years.

I consider myself to be at least as well informed as most second and tertiary analysts at major corporations and energy analysis sites. I have more TIME than they do. I possess an innate ability to understand the larger picture after gathering diverse facts and data which most people are not able to emulate. Coming in here and claiming that my conclusions could be considered "hunch driven" or "armchair" in nature is both inflammatory and inaccurate.

I normally assume that stuff like this is troll bait, but I want others to understand that your characterization is once again, thoughtless, inaccurate, and patently incorrect.
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Re: Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 201

Unread postby peeker01 » Thu 07 Jul 2011, 20:41:12

my, my......just when do you find the time to fly airplanes?
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Re: Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 201

Unread postby babystrangeloop » Thu 07 Jul 2011, 20:46:28

peeker01 wrote:my, my......just when do you find the time to fly airplanes?

cough
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Re: Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 201

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 07 Jul 2011, 20:57:24

AirlinePilot wrote:"Amazingly, Rystad Energy, a Norwegian consultancy that analyzes field data, foresees U.S. combined oil and gas output actually surpassing its prior 1972 peak in the early 2020s."


I'd say that just about destroys ANY credibility that these "analysts" had. I can see a dent being made in decline, but I'd really like to understand how they come to that conclusion. In light of the decline picture here in the US its a fantastic claim to make

I think you missed the part where it said, "combined oil and gas output."

We're already exceeding our previous natgas production record set in 1973, and production continues to go up.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 201

Unread postby copious.abundance » Thu 07 Jul 2011, 21:19:42

AirlinePilot wrote:
KingM wrote:Good point. The armchair, hunch-driven analysis on this web site is much more credible than anything that could be offered by so-called professional "analysts" and "experts."


Thats a pretty ignorant and bold statement to make on a site like this. Granted there are plenty of "armchair" types here, but I can assure you I am not one. [...] I possess an innate ability to understand the larger picture after gathering diverse facts and data which most people are not able to emulate. Coming in here and claiming that my conclusions could be considered "hunch driven" or "armchair" in nature is both inflammatory and inaccurate.

BTW, before you continue to tell us how astute, smart and intelligent you are regarding the "big picture" of things, I do believe it's time to remind you of something you said on Wed Mar 24, 2010:
AirlinePilot wrote:OF, you have had the wool successfully pulled over your eyes. Short term does not a market make. You can come back here next year or in 18 months when the market is at 13000 and I'll eat my internet hat!

We're less than 300 points from you eating your internet hat. Wouldn't be surprised to see you eating your internet hat by the end of this month - 16 or so months after your challenge. Given how completely and totally off you were about something pretty basic like the general direction of the stock market over the next 1-2 years, you've got a helluva lot of nerve telling us telling us you have, "an innate ability to understand the larger picture after gathering diverse facts and data which most people are not able to emulate." :lol: I mean - really it's laughable! :lol:
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 201

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Fri 08 Jul 2011, 01:00:58

peeker01 wrote:my, my......just when do you find the time to fly airplanes?



Its called working smarter, not harder. We have limits to what we can do as far as flight time and duty time go so by the rules we have a bit more "off" time than others. That plus I have no real duty other than flying and no interface with superiors etc as long as I dont screw something up. One of the reasons I really like my job...I fly..I go home..and dont think about work until I go back to fly again. I work as much hours as most folks do, just we do them all at once vice spaced out over a week.
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Re: Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 201

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Fri 08 Jul 2011, 01:07:48

OilFinder2 wrote: Wouldn't be surprised to see you eating your internet hat by the end of this month - 16 or so months after your challenge. Given how completely and totally off you were about something pretty basic like the general direction of the stock market over the next 1-2 years, you've got a helluva lot of nerve telling us telling us you have, "an innate ability to understand the larger picture after gathering diverse facts and data which most people are not able to emulate." :lol: I mean - really it's laughable! :lol:


300 points in this environment is a long way. While its posible lets see how things play out and how bad my estimates actually were. I have personally done extremely well remaining completely out of the markets(stocks/funds) and using strictly commodity plays as of late.

The end game to monetary collapse does not include continued falsely levitated markets. You got your take.....I got mine.
I'll gladly eat my IH ;) But I wont play in a completely manipulated and government levitated casino. You can have that game, but you better be nimble and quick. The next crash will both surprise you with its speed and its depth.
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Re: Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 201

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 08 Jul 2011, 01:20:56

The point wasn't even the technicalities of the stock market and the potential to eat one's IH. The point is, you claim you've got some special ability to see the big picture because you're just oh-so-smart when in fact you've been dead wrong about the stock market and ridiculed me for having a woolly blanket over my head over the same topic. Well guess what smartypants? I've been right about the stock market and you've been dead wrong. Now who has the woolley blanket over their heads? Hint: It ain't me, 'cuz I've been right.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: Study: US shale oil production to 1.9 million bpd in 201

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Fri 08 Jul 2011, 01:31:37

OilFinder2 wrote:I think you missed the part where it said, "combined oil and gas output."


I see that but its impossible to tell what they were driving at as there is no data source to back up the claim. It could be argued they are implying something else. Hard to tell since the lack of journalism skills failed to provide anything of substance.
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